A new report on civil-military integration by China's National Defence University (NDU) has called for the construction of 400 Xian Aircraft Corporation Y-20 heavy transport aircraft.
Written by NDU's Center for Economic Research, 'Chinese Military and Civilian Integration Development Report, 2014' was revealed on 25 July by Chinese state media outlets. Containing six parts, the report covers the theory and practice of civil-military integration and reviews its progress in China along with recommendations for its improvement.
While it is not clear whether the NDU report reflects thinking within the People's Liberation Army (PLA) leadership, it is significant as the PLA almost never openly discusses future requirements for major military systems.
The report's treatment of China's transport sector has gained the most attention in the state media, with the most prominent suggestion being that China consider the acquisition of up to 400 Y-20 transports. The report noted that the United States has 700 medium and large transport aircraft, while Russia has 800 and India 200.
The report states that the transports should be organized in 10 'divisions' that would each likely comprise two regiments of 20 aircraft. It also acknowledges that Y-20 development is impeded by domestic engine development - something that was widely known but not previously acknowledged in official publications.
The first Y-20 prototype first flew on 26 January 2013 and a second prototype has entered its testing programme. With future indigenous turbofans the Y-20 would reportedly be capable of carrying a 65-ton payload.
The NDU report also makes four basic recommendations to improve civil-military integration in China's transport sector, including a call to build offshore bases on remote islands and overseas countries.
The first suggestion is to increase investments in dual-use technology, specifically commercial transport aircraft that can also serve military missions such as transport, airborne early warning and control, and aerial refueling.
A second recommendation is to better exploit the capability of civil transport assets, especially maritime assets, to create a reserve strategic delivery capability. Third, the NDU recommends that command of civil transport assets be better co-ordinated and centralized; more reflective of a military structure.
Fourth, the NDU recommends an 'overseas' aspect to civil-military integration, such as building a network of foreign bases or supply depots. It further recommends the strengthening of "strategic frontier islands" and "reefs" by building airports and "large floating platforms" that could facilitate "remote strategic delivery" and serve as supply depots.
ANALYSIS
IHS Jane's analysis has identified strategic transport aircraft as a key capability weakness for China - something that has limited both power projection and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations.
The Y-20 is an attempt to address this without relying on imports, although IHS Jane's has previously reported that it was designed with extensive assistance from the Antonov Design Bureau in Kiev. As the NDU report states, engines remain a weakness and the first prototype aircraft was powered by four of the same Perm/Soloviev D-30KP-2 engines that power the Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft.
Meanwhile, the reliability of the data in the NDU report on the Y-20 is supported by its suggestions that China strengthen its presence in "strategic frontier islands" and "reefs". Ongoing dredging activities in the Spratly islands and plans released by Chinese state shipbuilders for the airbases and "large floating platforms" recommended by the report suggest that this is a strategic programme for Beijing, albeit one that may lead to conflict with its Southeast Asian neighbours.
China's NDU recommends 400-strong Y-20 fleet - IHS Jane's 360
