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China's Liaoning Province has entered a high degree of aging, with a negative population growth for 8 consecutive years
China Times 2019-03-23 11:50
http://t.m.youth.cn/transfer/toutia..._11905119.htm?tt_group_id=6671429666588328452
China Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Wang Xiaohui Beijing report
In the past 10 years, the negative growth of the labor force in the northeastern region has been severe, and the birth rate is the lowest in the country and the aging is the highest in the country. The population situation is worrying.
Recently, the Liaoning Statistical Bulletin was published in 2018, which stated that the annual birth population was 279,000, the birth rate was 6.39‰; the death population was 323,000, the mortality rate was 7.39‰; the natural population growth rate was -1.00‰.
“The population of Liaoning Province has entered negative growth since 2011. Among them, the natural population growth rate of Liaoning Province in 2016 and 2017 is -0.18‰ and -0.44‰ respectively. It is to be understood that 2016 and 2017 are comprehensive two-child policy implementation. In the first two years, it was impossible to reverse the negative population growth in Liaoning Province. It can be seen that Liaoning’s second child’s fertility will be low.” On March 21, the demographer He Yafu said in an interview with the “China Times” reporter, although Heilongjiang and Jilin 2018 The data for the year has not yet been announced, but according to recent data, the population of the three northeastern provinces is decreasing year by year.
Taking 2017 data as an example, the population of three provinces in China has not only increased, but has declined. That is the three northeastern provinces. Among them, the population of Liaoning Province decreased by 46,000, the population of Heilongjiang Province decreased by 121,800, the population of Jilin Province decreased by 209,900, and the total of the three provinces decreased by 370,700.
The population of Northeast China has experienced negative growth year after year.
Population is an important social resource. The population is the foundation of a region's development. The region with a large population often has more labor, a bigger market, a more dynamic society, etc., so the population is large and the population is growing rapidly. Regions often greet the “population dividend period”.
Among them, the population growth rate is the ratio of the population growth rate to the total population in a year, which reflects the economic development of a region. In China, the population growth of most provinces is mostly positive, but in recent years, some parts of the northeastern region have experienced “negative growth” in population.
The reason is that on the one hand, the outflow of population is serious; on the other hand, the birth rate is declining, which reduces the population and proportion of children and adolescents.
As an old industrial base, the three northeastern provinces once had the best investment in China's best infrastructure and planned economy. However, with the opening up of the Chinese economy, the competitiveness of the Northeast region has declined, and the Northeast has gradually changed from the previous population inflows. It became a population outflow. Especially in the past decade or so, the population loss in the northeast region has become more and more obvious. There is currently no official statistics. However, the 2017 data shows that the population of Liaoning Province has decreased by 46,000, the population of Heilongjiang Province has decreased by 121,800, the population of Jilin Province has decreased by 209,900, and the total of the three provinces has decreased by 370,700.
Among them, in addition to the serious outflow of population, the decline in birth rate is another important reason for the negative growth of the population in Northeast China.
In 1978, the family planning policy was officially written into the Constitution. China began to advocate “a couple to have a child.” In that year, due to the large number of state-owned enterprises in the Northeast, the Northeast was the best area for family planning, and the decline of population became inevitable.
As early as the sixth census in 2010, the total fertility rates in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces were only 0.741, 0.760, and 0.751, respectively, both far below the national average of 1.181, and much lower than 2010. The global fertility rate is the lowest in Singapore at 0.80. The average fertility rate of about 0.75 in the three northeastern provinces is equivalent to 8 adult males and only three children, which is the lowest in the country.
Three children can be born in parts of Heilongjiang
Under the double blow of ultra-low fertility rate and population outflow, the continuous loss of young people will lead to an increase in aging, and the lack of desire of the elderly will further lead to economic downturn, and the young people’s fertility desire will also come. The lower, at the same time, the deterioration of the economic environment will lead to the further loss of young people. This vicious circle will lead to an increase in population loss in the Northeast and a worsening economy.
Statistics from the large database of the China Business Research Institute show that the birth rate of the birth population in China was 1.24% in 2017, but only about 0.6% in the three northeastern provinces, far below the national level, and much lower than the 1% international standard warning line. Even nearly twice as much as Japan, which is plagued by “small child”.
At the same time, when a country or region over 65 years old accounts for 7% of the total population, it means that the country or region has entered an aging society. The three northeastern provinces have already surpassed this international standard warning line. In 2017, the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the country was 11.4%, the proportion of population aged 65 and over in Liaoning was 14.35%, that in Jilin was 12.38%, and that in Heilongjiang was 12%.
In order to revitalize the economy of the three northeastern provinces and alleviate the population crisis, the three northeastern provinces finally could not sit still, and took the lead in implementing the policy of encouraging births on the basis of fully liberalizing the two children.
In July 2018, Liaoning launched the first shot of “Encouraging Fertility” and released the “Liaoning Population Development Plan (2016-2030)”. The new population plan proposes: It will establish and improve a comprehensive two-child supporting policy including birth support and child rearing, improve the taxation, education, social security, housing and other policies of the family, and explore more reward policies for families with two children. The burden of raising children.
Although the encouraged birth policy introduced by Liaoning Province covers all aspects of the award, it is not a cold day.
"In fact, the border areas of Heilongjiang Province have allowed three children, but few people have three children, and even the idea of giving birth to a second child is not very strong." He Yafu said that the current fertility willingness and fertility of the three provinces in Northeast China are already in history. At the lowest level, even if fertility is fully encouraged, if there is no synergy between various supporting policies, the total fertility rate will not be raised to the ideal level in the short term.
According to the reporter's understanding, as early as April 2016, when the country began to implement the two-child policy, Heilongjiang revised the "Heilongjiang Population and Family Planning Regulations", which stipulates that both husband and wife are residents of the border area and can be born according to law. On the basis of two children, one child will be born again.
However, the fertility rate can be improved not only by liberalizing the birth policy, but also having two “children” and three children who have “opportunities” and more willingness. Reducing the pressure of childcare, introducing preferential policies, realizing the reduction of childcare costs can promote fertility, and at the same time, alleviate the social problems brought about by aging.
辽宁进入深度老龄化，人口连续8年负增长
华夏时报 2019-03-23 11:50
华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 王晓慧 北京报道
近10年来，东北劳动力人口负增长情况严重，加上出生率全国垫底、老龄化程度全国最高，人口形势堪忧。
近日，2018年辽宁统计公报公布，其中表示，全年出生人口27.9万人，出生率6.39‰；死亡人口32.3万人，死亡率7.39‰；人口自然增长率-1.00‰。
“辽宁省人口从2011年就开始进入了负增长。其中，2016年和2017年辽宁省人口自然增长率分别为-0.18‰和-0.44‰。要知道，2016年和2017年是全面二孩政策实施的头两年，居然也无法扭转辽宁省人口负增长的势头，可见辽宁的二孩生育意愿之低迷。”3月21，人口学者何亚福接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，虽然，黑龙江和吉林2018年的数据尚未公布，但是，根据近年来的数据显示，东北三省的人口在逐年减少。
以2017年的数据为例，我国有三个省份的人口数量不仅没有增加，反而出现了下降，那就是东北三省。其中，辽宁省人口减少4.6万人，黑龙江省人口减少12.18万人，吉林省人口减少了20.29万人，三省合计减少37.07万人。
东北地区人口连年出现负增长
人口是重要的社会资源，人口数量是一个地区发展的基础，人口多的地区往往拥有更多的劳动力、更大的市场、更具活力的社会等等，所以人口数量较多，人口快速增长的地区，往往会迎来“人口红利期”。
其中，人口增长率是一年人口增长数与人口总数之比，它反映着一个地区的经济发展状况。在中国，大多数省份的人口增长各不相同多为正数，但是近几年，东北部分地区却连年出现了人口“负增长”的情况。
究其原因，一方面是人口外流严重；另一方面，则是出生率下降，使少年儿童的人口数量和比重减少。
作为一个老工业基地，东北三省曾经拥有中国最好的基础设施和计划经济时期的大量投入，不过，随着中国经济的开放搞活，东北地区的竞争力下降，东北由以前的人口流入地逐渐变成了人口流出地。尤其是近十几年来，东北地区人口流失愈发明显，目前没有一个官方的统计数字。不过，2017年数据显示，辽宁省人口减少4.6万人，黑龙江省人口减少12.18万人，吉林省人口减少了20.29万人，三省合计减少37.07万人。
这其中，除了人口外流严重外，出生率下降则是东北地区人口连年出现负增长的另外一个重要原因。
1978年，计划生育政策正式写入宪法，我国开始提倡“一对夫妇生育一个孩子”，当年，由于东北地区的国企多，为此，东北是计划生育执行最好的地区，人口下降成为必然。
早在2010年第六次人口普查时，辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省的总和生育率就分别仅为0.741、0.760、0.751，均远远低于全国平均1.181的水平，也大大低于2010年全球生育率最低的新加坡0.80的水平。东北三省平均大约0.75的生育率水平，相当于8个成年男女只生育3个孩子，处于全国最低水平。
黑龙江部分地区可以生三孩
在超低的生育率和人口逐年外流的双重打击之下，加之年轻人不断流失会导致老龄化加剧，而老年人消费欲望不强又会进一步导致经济不景气，年轻人的生育欲望也越来越低，同时，经济环境的恶化又会导致年轻人进一步流失，这种恶性循环会导致东北人口流失加剧，经济愈发不景气。
来自中商产业研究院大数据库的统计数据显示，2017年全国出生人口出生率为1.24%，但东北三省只有0.6%左右，远低于全国水平，也大大低于了1%的国际标准警戒线，甚至比饱受“少子化”困扰的日本还差了近一倍。
同时，当一个国家或地区65岁以上老年人口占人口总数的7%，即意味着这个国家或地区进入了老龄化社会。而东北三省早已超过了这个国际标准警戒线许多。2017年全国65周岁及以上人口占比为11.4%，辽宁65周岁及以上人口占比为14.35%，吉林为12.38%，黑龙江为12%。
为了振兴东北三省经济，缓解人口危机，东北三省终于坐不住了，率先在全面放开二孩的基础上实行鼓励生育政策。
2018年7月，辽宁打响了“鼓励生育”第一枪，发布了《辽宁省人口发展规划(2016—2030年)》。新的人口规划提出：将建立完善包括生育支持、幼儿养育等全面二孩配套政策，完善生育家庭税收、教育、社会保障、住房等政策，探索对生育二孩的家庭给予更多奖励政策，减轻生养子女负担。
虽然，辽宁省率先推出的鼓励生育政策涵盖了各方面的奖励，但是，冰冻三尺非一日之寒。
“其实，黑龙江省的边境地区已允许生三孩，但很少人生三孩，甚至连生育二胎的想法都不是很强烈。”何亚福表示，目前东北三省群众生育意愿和生育能力已经处于有史以来的最低水平，即使全面鼓励生育，如果没有多种配套政策的协同促进，总和生育率也不可能在短期内提升到理想水平。
据记者了解，早在2016年4月，全国刚刚开始实施二孩政策的时候，黑龙江就修订了《黑龙江省人口与计划生育条例》中规定，夫妻双方均为边境地区居民的，可以在依法生育两个子女基础上，再生育一胎子女。
不过，生育率不仅仅只是放开生育政策就能提高的，生二孩、三孩不仅要有“机会”，更要有意愿。减轻育儿压力，推出优惠政策，真正实现降低育儿成本才能推动生育率，同时，缓解老龄化带来的社会问题。
http://t.m.youth.cn/transfer/toutia..._11905119.htm?tt_group_id=6671429666588328452
China Times 2019-03-23 11:50
http://t.m.youth.cn/transfer/toutia..._11905119.htm?tt_group_id=6671429666588328452
China Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Wang Xiaohui Beijing report
In the past 10 years, the negative growth of the labor force in the northeastern region has been severe, and the birth rate is the lowest in the country and the aging is the highest in the country. The population situation is worrying.
Recently, the Liaoning Statistical Bulletin was published in 2018, which stated that the annual birth population was 279,000, the birth rate was 6.39‰; the death population was 323,000, the mortality rate was 7.39‰; the natural population growth rate was -1.00‰.
“The population of Liaoning Province has entered negative growth since 2011. Among them, the natural population growth rate of Liaoning Province in 2016 and 2017 is -0.18‰ and -0.44‰ respectively. It is to be understood that 2016 and 2017 are comprehensive two-child policy implementation. In the first two years, it was impossible to reverse the negative population growth in Liaoning Province. It can be seen that Liaoning’s second child’s fertility will be low.” On March 21, the demographer He Yafu said in an interview with the “China Times” reporter, although Heilongjiang and Jilin 2018 The data for the year has not yet been announced, but according to recent data, the population of the three northeastern provinces is decreasing year by year.
Taking 2017 data as an example, the population of three provinces in China has not only increased, but has declined. That is the three northeastern provinces. Among them, the population of Liaoning Province decreased by 46,000, the population of Heilongjiang Province decreased by 121,800, the population of Jilin Province decreased by 209,900, and the total of the three provinces decreased by 370,700.
The population of Northeast China has experienced negative growth year after year.
Population is an important social resource. The population is the foundation of a region's development. The region with a large population often has more labor, a bigger market, a more dynamic society, etc., so the population is large and the population is growing rapidly. Regions often greet the “population dividend period”.
Among them, the population growth rate is the ratio of the population growth rate to the total population in a year, which reflects the economic development of a region. In China, the population growth of most provinces is mostly positive, but in recent years, some parts of the northeastern region have experienced “negative growth” in population.
The reason is that on the one hand, the outflow of population is serious; on the other hand, the birth rate is declining, which reduces the population and proportion of children and adolescents.
As an old industrial base, the three northeastern provinces once had the best investment in China's best infrastructure and planned economy. However, with the opening up of the Chinese economy, the competitiveness of the Northeast region has declined, and the Northeast has gradually changed from the previous population inflows. It became a population outflow. Especially in the past decade or so, the population loss in the northeast region has become more and more obvious. There is currently no official statistics. However, the 2017 data shows that the population of Liaoning Province has decreased by 46,000, the population of Heilongjiang Province has decreased by 121,800, the population of Jilin Province has decreased by 209,900, and the total of the three provinces has decreased by 370,700.
Among them, in addition to the serious outflow of population, the decline in birth rate is another important reason for the negative growth of the population in Northeast China.
In 1978, the family planning policy was officially written into the Constitution. China began to advocate “a couple to have a child.” In that year, due to the large number of state-owned enterprises in the Northeast, the Northeast was the best area for family planning, and the decline of population became inevitable.
As early as the sixth census in 2010, the total fertility rates in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces were only 0.741, 0.760, and 0.751, respectively, both far below the national average of 1.181, and much lower than 2010. The global fertility rate is the lowest in Singapore at 0.80. The average fertility rate of about 0.75 in the three northeastern provinces is equivalent to 8 adult males and only three children, which is the lowest in the country.
Three children can be born in parts of Heilongjiang
Under the double blow of ultra-low fertility rate and population outflow, the continuous loss of young people will lead to an increase in aging, and the lack of desire of the elderly will further lead to economic downturn, and the young people’s fertility desire will also come. The lower, at the same time, the deterioration of the economic environment will lead to the further loss of young people. This vicious circle will lead to an increase in population loss in the Northeast and a worsening economy.
Statistics from the large database of the China Business Research Institute show that the birth rate of the birth population in China was 1.24% in 2017, but only about 0.6% in the three northeastern provinces, far below the national level, and much lower than the 1% international standard warning line. Even nearly twice as much as Japan, which is plagued by “small child”.
At the same time, when a country or region over 65 years old accounts for 7% of the total population, it means that the country or region has entered an aging society. The three northeastern provinces have already surpassed this international standard warning line. In 2017, the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the country was 11.4%, the proportion of population aged 65 and over in Liaoning was 14.35%, that in Jilin was 12.38%, and that in Heilongjiang was 12%.
In order to revitalize the economy of the three northeastern provinces and alleviate the population crisis, the three northeastern provinces finally could not sit still, and took the lead in implementing the policy of encouraging births on the basis of fully liberalizing the two children.
In July 2018, Liaoning launched the first shot of “Encouraging Fertility” and released the “Liaoning Population Development Plan (2016-2030)”. The new population plan proposes: It will establish and improve a comprehensive two-child supporting policy including birth support and child rearing, improve the taxation, education, social security, housing and other policies of the family, and explore more reward policies for families with two children. The burden of raising children.
Although the encouraged birth policy introduced by Liaoning Province covers all aspects of the award, it is not a cold day.
"In fact, the border areas of Heilongjiang Province have allowed three children, but few people have three children, and even the idea of giving birth to a second child is not very strong." He Yafu said that the current fertility willingness and fertility of the three provinces in Northeast China are already in history. At the lowest level, even if fertility is fully encouraged, if there is no synergy between various supporting policies, the total fertility rate will not be raised to the ideal level in the short term.
According to the reporter's understanding, as early as April 2016, when the country began to implement the two-child policy, Heilongjiang revised the "Heilongjiang Population and Family Planning Regulations", which stipulates that both husband and wife are residents of the border area and can be born according to law. On the basis of two children, one child will be born again.
However, the fertility rate can be improved not only by liberalizing the birth policy, but also having two “children” and three children who have “opportunities” and more willingness. Reducing the pressure of childcare, introducing preferential policies, realizing the reduction of childcare costs can promote fertility, and at the same time, alleviate the social problems brought about by aging.
辽宁进入深度老龄化，人口连续8年负增长
华夏时报 2019-03-23 11:50
华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 王晓慧 北京报道
近10年来，东北劳动力人口负增长情况严重，加上出生率全国垫底、老龄化程度全国最高，人口形势堪忧。
近日，2018年辽宁统计公报公布，其中表示，全年出生人口27.9万人，出生率6.39‰；死亡人口32.3万人，死亡率7.39‰；人口自然增长率-1.00‰。
“辽宁省人口从2011年就开始进入了负增长。其中，2016年和2017年辽宁省人口自然增长率分别为-0.18‰和-0.44‰。要知道，2016年和2017年是全面二孩政策实施的头两年，居然也无法扭转辽宁省人口负增长的势头，可见辽宁的二孩生育意愿之低迷。”3月21，人口学者何亚福接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，虽然，黑龙江和吉林2018年的数据尚未公布，但是，根据近年来的数据显示，东北三省的人口在逐年减少。
以2017年的数据为例，我国有三个省份的人口数量不仅没有增加，反而出现了下降，那就是东北三省。其中，辽宁省人口减少4.6万人，黑龙江省人口减少12.18万人，吉林省人口减少了20.29万人，三省合计减少37.07万人。
东北地区人口连年出现负增长
人口是重要的社会资源，人口数量是一个地区发展的基础，人口多的地区往往拥有更多的劳动力、更大的市场、更具活力的社会等等，所以人口数量较多，人口快速增长的地区，往往会迎来“人口红利期”。
其中，人口增长率是一年人口增长数与人口总数之比，它反映着一个地区的经济发展状况。在中国，大多数省份的人口增长各不相同多为正数，但是近几年，东北部分地区却连年出现了人口“负增长”的情况。
究其原因，一方面是人口外流严重；另一方面，则是出生率下降，使少年儿童的人口数量和比重减少。
作为一个老工业基地，东北三省曾经拥有中国最好的基础设施和计划经济时期的大量投入，不过，随着中国经济的开放搞活，东北地区的竞争力下降，东北由以前的人口流入地逐渐变成了人口流出地。尤其是近十几年来，东北地区人口流失愈发明显，目前没有一个官方的统计数字。不过，2017年数据显示，辽宁省人口减少4.6万人，黑龙江省人口减少12.18万人，吉林省人口减少了20.29万人，三省合计减少37.07万人。
这其中，除了人口外流严重外，出生率下降则是东北地区人口连年出现负增长的另外一个重要原因。
1978年，计划生育政策正式写入宪法，我国开始提倡“一对夫妇生育一个孩子”，当年，由于东北地区的国企多，为此，东北是计划生育执行最好的地区，人口下降成为必然。
早在2010年第六次人口普查时，辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省的总和生育率就分别仅为0.741、0.760、0.751，均远远低于全国平均1.181的水平，也大大低于2010年全球生育率最低的新加坡0.80的水平。东北三省平均大约0.75的生育率水平，相当于8个成年男女只生育3个孩子，处于全国最低水平。
黑龙江部分地区可以生三孩
在超低的生育率和人口逐年外流的双重打击之下，加之年轻人不断流失会导致老龄化加剧，而老年人消费欲望不强又会进一步导致经济不景气，年轻人的生育欲望也越来越低，同时，经济环境的恶化又会导致年轻人进一步流失，这种恶性循环会导致东北人口流失加剧，经济愈发不景气。
来自中商产业研究院大数据库的统计数据显示，2017年全国出生人口出生率为1.24%，但东北三省只有0.6%左右，远低于全国水平，也大大低于了1%的国际标准警戒线，甚至比饱受“少子化”困扰的日本还差了近一倍。
同时，当一个国家或地区65岁以上老年人口占人口总数的7%，即意味着这个国家或地区进入了老龄化社会。而东北三省早已超过了这个国际标准警戒线许多。2017年全国65周岁及以上人口占比为11.4%，辽宁65周岁及以上人口占比为14.35%，吉林为12.38%，黑龙江为12%。
为了振兴东北三省经济，缓解人口危机，东北三省终于坐不住了，率先在全面放开二孩的基础上实行鼓励生育政策。
2018年7月，辽宁打响了“鼓励生育”第一枪，发布了《辽宁省人口发展规划(2016—2030年)》。新的人口规划提出：将建立完善包括生育支持、幼儿养育等全面二孩配套政策，完善生育家庭税收、教育、社会保障、住房等政策，探索对生育二孩的家庭给予更多奖励政策，减轻生养子女负担。
虽然，辽宁省率先推出的鼓励生育政策涵盖了各方面的奖励，但是，冰冻三尺非一日之寒。
“其实，黑龙江省的边境地区已允许生三孩，但很少人生三孩，甚至连生育二胎的想法都不是很强烈。”何亚福表示，目前东北三省群众生育意愿和生育能力已经处于有史以来的最低水平，即使全面鼓励生育，如果没有多种配套政策的协同促进，总和生育率也不可能在短期内提升到理想水平。
据记者了解，早在2016年4月，全国刚刚开始实施二孩政策的时候，黑龙江就修订了《黑龙江省人口与计划生育条例》中规定，夫妻双方均为边境地区居民的，可以在依法生育两个子女基础上，再生育一胎子女。
不过，生育率不仅仅只是放开生育政策就能提高的，生二孩、三孩不仅要有“机会”，更要有意愿。减轻育儿压力，推出优惠政策，真正实现降低育儿成本才能推动生育率，同时，缓解老龄化带来的社会问题。
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