China's Falling Birth Rate: Can It Sustain The Rise To Superpower?

[dani191]

 

[vi-va]

Still China has 100 times of population of Israel. I was told that Israel is strong, I bet 100 times isn't too less.

 

[Titanium100]

That one child policy will come back and bite China when it is most needed. China will have to import alot of people to off-set these starting from mid 2035 to early 2040s China will have to import atleast 50m-100m young people they could example start with the han-chinese disapora and then they will have to import a bunch of vietnamese labor workers.

But it is certainly something China can fix.. It will eventually kick in around mid 2035 to 2040s China has plenty of time to prepare for alternatives to fill up the industrial monster so that it keeps running as usual.. China has the resources to undo this.. All they need is to fix it artificially between 2035-2050 and beyond the 2050s the industry monster will keep rolling as usual

 

[lcloo]

Labour intensive workers industries are moving out of China for more than 10 years now, added to this is the world's largest workforce of robots and AI machines are everywhere. The pressure for human workers need have been reduced drastically.

I visited a bank in Quanzhou city 2 years ago to change US dollar to RMB, to my surprise the bank has only 2 customers including myself, and saw only 4 bank employees ( a guard, 2 counter clerks, a customer service person). Everybody goes cashless and online, people do not go to bank anymore.

in contrast 10 years ago, in a little Shajing town (population around 200,000 then) in Shenzhen, the bank I went regularly was always full of customers of around 30 to 40 people, and the bank has no less than 20 staff. And customers had to wait for 20 to 30 minutes to be served.

The above example on reduction of the need for human operations on banking show the changes in the last 10 years , and will keep on changing in China in every industries. Less and less human workers are needed.

Robots and AI machines's contribution to Chinese GDP will be increase incrementary every year in the future.

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

no worries, world war 3 will induce a baby boom

 

[Battlion25]

Can you actully believe some folks in here like @Sainthood 101 and some others were proposing child control policy on Pakistan and campaigning for it. I was Telling them constantly try to speak with people who have tried it and have experience in this they will tell you it's negative effects and that this is no-no

 

[Maula Jatt]

Can you actully believe some folks in here like @Sainthood 101 and some others were proposing child control policy on Pakistan and campaigning for it. I was Telling them constantly try to speak with people who have tried it and have experience in this they will tell you it's negative effects and that this is no-no

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.sc...re-forced-take-desperate-measures-stop-having
No one is asking for one child policy- normal 2.1 fertility rate to replace population

PC Mulk diwaliya ho Raha hai aur ya pur kharghosht ki tarha pichle 70 se saal se aurto ko bache paisa Karne par lagaya hua hai

"Family planning is rejected by religious leaders as well as nationalists who wanted a bigger population"

Your lots reason for this is equally dumb
"as well as nationalists who wanted a bigger population to rival the 1.2 billion people in neighbouring India."

 

[MH.Yang]

Yes. The population problem is our biggest threat now. Although I don't know how to solve this problem, I believe in CCP. CCP has strong ability and wisdom. It has led us out of difficulties and created miracles again and again. We remain convinced that it can continue to do so.

 

[Battlion25]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.sc...re-forced-take-desperate-measures-stop-having
"Family planning is rejected by religious leaders as well as nationalists who wanted a bigger population"

that is the whole point Pakistan wants bigger population.. You don't repress the birth-rate it will cause negative effects if it is 5.4 and natural you simple let it flow because what is happening there is natural growth

 

[Shotgunner51]

China has the resources to undo this.. All they need is to fix it artificially between 2035-2050 and beyond the 2050s the industry monster will keep rolling as usual

A declining population may impact domestic consumption, but I also believe the industrial base should keep rolling like you said, because of automation. In fact record numbers of robots are being added every year. Say in 2020 China Mainland alone accounted for 44% of world's total installations, even more than the next four industrial powers combined (Japan, US, South Korea & Germany totaled 28%). These hard facts are seldom reported by western media for obvious reasons, as if China has not already risen in technology & industrial competitiveness, instead they pretend to ask sneaky question on false premise like whether China "can rise" or not, they are good at that.

This trend is expected to continue until density of robots reaches industrial level of SG/SK sometime around 2030. With both the agricultural and industrial sectors increasingly intelligent & automated, more population will be engaged in services sector, R&D.

 

[Beast]

China has a population of 1.4billion people, And some are worry about China population, not able to catch up on western in human resources?

China is not a welfare state. We do not have the massive welfare burden like western where all retiree are living on extravaganza. The youngster pool talent are enough for China to beat US or europe in few decades time.

 

[dani191]

China has a population of 1.4billion people, And some are worry about China population, not able to catch up on western in human resources?

China is not a welfare state. We do not have the massive welfare burden like western where all retiree are living on extravaganza. The youngster pool talent are enough for China to beat US or europe in few decades time.

pupolation pyramid what matter

 

[Mista]

Still China has 100 times of population of Israel. I was told that Israel is strong, I bet 100 times isn't too less.

I've once thought of this interesting scenario if things continue as it is.

Israel currently has a TFR of 3.0, which means that each generation will be around 3.0/2.1 = ~1.4x the size of the previous generation. Each generation will grow around 40%.
China currently has a TFR of 1.3, which means that each generation will be around 1.3/2.1 = ~0.6x the size of the previous generation. Each generation will shrink around 40%.

Assuming TFR remains the same and there is no migration, by the 6th generation:

Israel would have an estimated population of 9mil * 1.4^6 = ~68mil.
China would have an estimated population of 1400mil * 0.6^6 = ~65mil.

Under current assumptions Israel may have a larger (and significantly younger) population than China in 6 generations, or around 150 years if each generation lasts 25 years.

Of course it's an oversimplified projection to assume current trends will remain as it is without considering land, migration, lifespan etc.

But I think it puts into perspective how serious and irreversible the population problem is if we extrapolate them over a century. China's population might decline by 95% over the next 150 years during peacetime. 150 years may sound like a long time, but it's considered a short period in the long history of Chinese civilization.

Yes. The population problem is our biggest threat now.

I've said before in this forum years ago that China's greatest long term threat is her low TFR, not the US or India or whatever, and the population policy should've been abolished long ago.

 

[waz]

China needs action on this now.
More state holidays, tax breaks for couples having more than 2, subsidised housing etc.

 

[nang2]

no worries, world war 3 will induce a baby boom

Sure, after an adult bust.