China's economy losing steam

[Royal Kathiyawadi]

China's economy lost momentum in the first quarter and growth in 2014 could fall short of the
government's official target, according to a CNNMoney survey of economists.
Gross domestic product is forecast to have grown by 7.3% in the first quarter, compared with the same period a year ago, according to
the median of 12 estimates. Looking ahead, the economists surveyed also expect full-year growth to slow to 7.3%, below the official
target of 7.5% .
The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to announce first quarter GDP figures next
Wednesday. China's GDP growth is being closely watched as the government works to
reform the world's second largest economy after years of runaway expansion.
A sluggish start to the year is typical, given the Lunar New Year holiday. But there's no denying the slowing trend -- China recorded
GDP growth of 7.7% in the last two years, versus 9.3% in 2011 and 10.5% in 2010.
The government says it's comfortable with growth around 7.5%. Observers say Beijing's laser focus on economic expansion hasn't
wavered.
"The government has underscored recently that it considers keeping growth going the most important economic objective, and has
started to take some modest steps to support growth in response to current downward pressures," said RBS economist Louis Kuijs.
Related story: Chinese snap up fine art for use in laundering schemes
Those measures, announced last week, extended a tax break for small and mid-sized companies, accelerated financing for
infrastructure projects in the pipeline, and pledged support for social housing construction.
Economists surveyed by CNNMoney say more intervention will be needed if the government has any hope of reaching its target.
"All things considered, we believe policymakers will have to consider further monetary easing in the second half of 2014," said Daiwa
Capital Markets economists Kevin Lai and Junjie Tang.
For the third consecutive quarter, the majority of economists said credit growth remains the biggest risk to China's economy. This is
the root cause of many current challenges -- including growing risks in shadow banking -- and debt has only continued to pile up.
Related story: Chinese tourists boost U.S. businesses
The government must rein in credit growth, even if that leads to less domestic investment, said Societe Generale's Wei Yao.
China recently experienced its first corporate default , when a small solar firm failed to make an interest payment to investors. Both the
government and experts have indicated that more corporate defaults and bankruptcies are on their way, and could serve as a call to
borrowers and lenders to be more responsible.
Although experts say such events don't pose a threat to the financial system, letting more companies fail is fraught with risk, as it
could further slow China's economy and undermine social stability. A series of defaults could create market turmoil and anger
investors who have been promised gains.
Other major headwinds include the overheating property market and increasing volatility in China's yuan, after the central bank allowed
it to trade in a wider range in March.
"The bottom line is that there is no easy way out of the problems China is facing," said Daiwa's Lai and Tang.
China's economy losing steam - Apr. 8, 2014

 

[Force-India]

Chinese economy already passed its peak

 

[UKBengali]

Nothing wrong with 7% GDP growth for a medium-income country like China.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

China's economy lost momentum in the first quarter and growth in 2014 could fall short of the
government's official target, according to a CNNMoney survey of economists.
Gross domestic product is forecast to have grown by 7.3% in the first quarter, compared with the same period a year ago, according to
the median of 12 estimates. Looking ahead, the economists surveyed also expect full-year growth to slow to 7.3%, below the official
target of 7.5% .
The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to announce first quarter GDP figures next
Wednesday. China's GDP growth is being closely watched as the government works to
reform the world's second largest economy after years of runaway expansion.
A sluggish start to the year is typical, given the Lunar New Year holiday. But there's no denying the slowing trend -- China recorded
GDP growth of 7.7% in the last two years, versus 9.3% in 2011 and 10.5% in 2010.
The government says it's comfortable with growth around 7.5%. Observers say Beijing's laser focus on economic expansion hasn't
wavered.
"The government has underscored recently that it considers keeping growth going the most important economic objective, and has
started to take some modest steps to support growth in response to current downward pressures," said RBS economist Louis Kuijs.
Related story: Chinese snap up fine art for use in laundering schemes
Those measures, announced last week, extended a tax break for small and mid-sized companies, accelerated financing for
infrastructure projects in the pipeline, and pledged support for social housing construction.
Economists surveyed by CNNMoney say more intervention will be needed if the government has any hope of reaching its target.
"All things considered, we believe policymakers will have to consider further monetary easing in the second half of 2014," said Daiwa
Capital Markets economists Kevin Lai and Junjie Tang.
For the third consecutive quarter, the majority of economists said credit growth remains the biggest risk to China's economy. This is
the root cause of many current challenges -- including growing risks in shadow banking -- and debt has only continued to pile up.
Related story: Chinese tourists boost U.S. businesses
The government must rein in credit growth, even if that leads to less domestic investment, said Societe Generale's Wei Yao.
China recently experienced its first corporate default , when a small solar firm failed to make an interest payment to investors. Both the
government and experts have indicated that more corporate defaults and bankruptcies are on their way, and could serve as a call to
borrowers and lenders to be more responsible.
Although experts say such events don't pose a threat to the financial system, letting more companies fail is fraught with risk, as it
could further slow China's economy and undermine social stability. A series of defaults could create market turmoil and anger
investors who have been promised gains.
Other major headwinds include the overheating property market and increasing volatility in China's yuan, after the central bank allowed
it to trade in a wider range in March.
"The bottom line is that there is no easy way out of the problems China is facing," said Daiwa's Lai and Tang.
China's economy losing steam - Apr. 8, 2014

Please tell me why you are using a one year old report?

 

[bobsm]

China's economy lost momentum in the first quarter and growth in 2014 could fall short of the
government's official target, according to a CNNMoney survey of economists.

You better worry more about yours.

U.S. Economy Contracted 0.7% in First Quarter
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/business/economy/us-economy-gdp-q1-revision.html?_r=0

 

[dlclong]

First look back at yourself

 

[sicsheep]

Nice year old article man.

Blame It on Global Cooling? Obama Has Lowest Average 1stQ GDP Growth of Any President on Record

Even if you leave out the first quarter of 2009—when the recession that started in December 2007 was still ongoing--President Barack Obama has presided over the lowest average first-quarter GDP growth of any president who has served since 1947, which is the earliest year for which the Bureau of Economic Analysis has calculated quarterly GDP growth.

In all first quarters since 1947, the real annual rate of growth of GDP has averaged 4.0 percent.

In the seven first quarters during Obama’s presidency, it has declined by an average of -0.43 percent. And if you leave out the first quarter of 2009 and look only at the first quarters of the six years since the recession ended, it has averaged only 0.4 percent.

In the six years of Harry Truman’s presidency for which the BEA has calculated quarterly GDP, the annual rate of growth in GDP in the first quarter averaged 4.5 percent.

During President Eisenhower’s eight years, it averaged 3.2 percent. During Kennedy’s three years, it averaged 4.9 percent. During Johnson’s five years, it averaged 8.3 percent. During Nixon’s six years, it averaged 5.3 percent. During Ford’s two years, it averaged 2.3 percent. During Carter’s four years, it average 2.4 percent. During Reagan’s eight years, it average 2.1 percent. During George H.W. Bush’s four years, it average 2.9 percent. During Clinton’s eight years, it averaged 2.6 percent. And during George W. Bush’s eight years, it averaged 1.7 percent

President Obama took office on Jan. 20, 2009. In the first quarter of 2009, GDP declined at an annual rate of -5.4 percent. In the first quarter of 2010, it grew by 1.7 percent. In the first quarter of 2011, it declined -1.5 percent. In the first quarter of 2012, it grew 2.3 percent. In the first quarter of 2013, it grew 2.7 percent. In the first quarter of 2014, it declined -2.1 percent. And in the first quarter of 2015, it declined -0.7 percent.

In these seven first quarters that Obama has been president (2009 through 2015), the annual rate of growth in GDP has declined at an average rate of -0.43 percent.

But the National Bureau of Economic Research says the last recession, which began on December 2007 did not end until June 2009. If you leave out the first quarter of 2009, and only count the six years (2010-2015) since the recession ended in June 2009, real annual rate of growth of GDP in the post-recession first quarters of Obama’s presidency has averaged 0.4 percent.

When GDP declined at -1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2011—which was after the recession and two full years into Obama’s presidency—some blamed it at least partly on the weather.

“Some of the slowdown in growth was linked to bad weather in early 2011 and an 11.7 percent decline in defense spending,” said a Reuters story of May 27, 2011.

When real GDP declined at a rate of -2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2014, a May 30, 2014 New York Times story said: “Most economists on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve blame a very cold winter for much of the slowdown.”

When real GDP declined at a rate of -0.7 percent in the first quarter of this year, the top paragraph of an Associated Press story said: “The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.7 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, depressed by a severe winter and a widening trade deficit.”

But there seems something more at work here than climate patterns--or the Obama presidency.

Under previous presidents, real GDP sometimes grew massively during the first quarter. In 1950, under Truman, for example, GDP grew at an annual rate of 16.9 percent in the first quarter. In 1955, under Eisenhower, it grew at a rate of 11.9 percent.

Under Johnson, in the first quarters of both 1965 and 1966, it grew at a rate of 10.2 percent. Under Nixon, it grew at 11.1 percent in the first quarter of 1971, and 10.2 percent in the first quarter of 1973, it grew at 10.2 percent.

Under Ford, in the first quarter of 1976, it grew at 9.3 percent. Under Reagan, in the first quarter of 1984, real GDP grew at a rate of 8.2 percent.

But since 1984—more than three decades ago--there has been no first quarter, in any year, under any president, when real GDP grew even as fast as 5.0 percent. The closest it came was in the first quarter of 2006, when George W. Bush was president, and it hit 4.9 percent.

In the decades starting after World War II, average annual growth in GDP peaked in the 1960s

In the 1950s, annual growth in GDP averaged 4.25 percent. In the 1960s, it climbed to 4.5 percent. But it dropped to 3.22 percent in the 1970s, then 3.15 percent in the 1980s, before ticking up to 3.23 percent in 1990s. In the 2000s, it averaged only 1.82 percent.

In the first five years of this decade (2010-2014), annual growth in GDP has averaged 2.2 percent. But that is less than the 2.7 percent it averaged in the first five years of the last decade (2000-2004) which was before the recession hit at the end of 2007 and brought the decade's average down to 1.82 percent.

If it were to maintain an average annual rate of 2.2 percent for the next five years, the American economy of this decade would still be growing at less than half the rate of the 1960s.

Should the long-term decline in U.S. economic growth be attributed to cold weather? Or should people in Washington, D.C., start looking around them for an anthropogenic cause.

Blame It on Global Cooling? Obama Has Lowest Average 1stQ GDP Growth of Any President on Record

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Nice year old article man.

View attachment 225915

Blame It on Global Cooling? Obama Has Lowest Average 1stQ GDP Growth of Any President on Record

View attachment 225916
Even if you leave out the first quarter of 2009—when the recession that started in December 2007 was still ongoing--President Barack Obama has presided over the lowest average first-quarter GDP growth of any president who has served since 1947, which is the earliest year for which the Bureau of Economic Analysis has calculated quarterly GDP growth.

In all first quarters since 1947, the real annual rate of growth of GDP has averaged 4.0 percent.

In the seven first quarters during Obama’s presidency, it has declined by an average of -0.43 percent. And if you leave out the first quarter of 2009 and look only at the first quarters of the six years since the recession ended, it has averaged only 0.4 percent.

In the six years of Harry Truman’s presidency for which the BEA has calculated quarterly GDP, the annual rate of growth in GDP in the first quarter averaged 4.5 percent.

During President Eisenhower’s eight years, it averaged 3.2 percent. During Kennedy’s three years, it averaged 4.9 percent. During Johnson’s five years, it averaged 8.3 percent. During Nixon’s six years, it averaged 5.3 percent. During Ford’s two years, it averaged 2.3 percent. During Carter’s four years, it average 2.4 percent. During Reagan’s eight years, it average 2.1 percent. During George H.W. Bush’s four years, it average 2.9 percent. During Clinton’s eight years, it averaged 2.6 percent. And during George W. Bush’s eight years, it averaged 1.7 percent

President Obama took office on Jan. 20, 2009. In the first quarter of 2009, GDP declined at an annual rate of -5.4 percent. In the first quarter of 2010, it grew by 1.7 percent. In the first quarter of 2011, it declined -1.5 percent. In the first quarter of 2012, it grew 2.3 percent. In the first quarter of 2013, it grew 2.7 percent. In the first quarter of 2014, it declined -2.1 percent. And in the first quarter of 2015, it declined -0.7 percent.

In these seven first quarters that Obama has been president (2009 through 2015), the annual rate of growth in GDP has declined at an average rate of -0.43 percent.

But the National Bureau of Economic Research says the last recession, which began on December 2007 did not end until June 2009. If you leave out the first quarter of 2009, and only count the six years (2010-2015) since the recession ended in June 2009, real annual rate of growth of GDP in the post-recession first quarters of Obama’s presidency has averaged 0.4 percent.

When GDP declined at -1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2011—which was after the recession and two full years into Obama’s presidency—some blamed it at least partly on the weather.

“Some of the slowdown in growth was linked to bad weather in early 2011 and an 11.7 percent decline in defense spending,” said a Reuters story of May 27, 2011.

When real GDP declined at a rate of -2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2014, a May 30, 2014 New York Times story said: “Most economists on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve blame a very cold winter for much of the slowdown.”

When real GDP declined at a rate of -0.7 percent in the first quarter of this year, the top paragraph of an Associated Press story said: “The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.7 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, depressed by a severe winter and a widening trade deficit.”

But there seems something more at work here than climate patterns--or the Obama presidency.

Under previous presidents, real GDP sometimes grew massively during the first quarter. In 1950, under Truman, for example, GDP grew at an annual rate of 16.9 percent in the first quarter. In 1955, under Eisenhower, it grew at a rate of 11.9 percent.

Under Johnson, in the first quarters of both 1965 and 1966, it grew at a rate of 10.2 percent. Under Nixon, it grew at 11.1 percent in the first quarter of 1971, and 10.2 percent in the first quarter of 1973, it grew at 10.2 percent.

Under Ford, in the first quarter of 1976, it grew at 9.3 percent. Under Reagan, in the first quarter of 1984, real GDP grew at a rate of 8.2 percent.

But since 1984—more than three decades ago--there has been no first quarter, in any year, under any president, when real GDP grew even as fast as 5.0 percent. The closest it came was in the first quarter of 2006, when George W. Bush was president, and it hit 4.9 percent.

In the decades starting after World War II, average annual growth in GDP peaked in the 1960s

In the 1950s, annual growth in GDP averaged 4.25 percent. In the 1960s, it climbed to 4.5 percent. But it dropped to 3.22 percent in the 1970s, then 3.15 percent in the 1980s, before ticking up to 3.23 percent in 1990s. In the 2000s, it averaged only 1.82 percent.

In the first five years of this decade (2010-2014), annual growth in GDP has averaged 2.2 percent. But that is less than the 2.7 percent it averaged in the first five years of the last decade (2000-2004) which was before the recession hit at the end of 2007 and brought the decade's average down to 1.82 percent.

If it were to maintain an average annual rate of 2.2 percent for the next five years, the American economy of this decade would still be growing at less than half the rate of the 1960s.

Should the long-term decline in U.S. economic growth be attributed to cold weather? Or should people in Washington, D.C., start looking around them for an anthropogenic cause.

Blame It on Global Cooling? Obama Has Lowest Average 1stQ GDP Growth of Any President on Record

Seasonal fluctuations don't matter. What matters is YoY activity. And in that sense, for an advanced economy, US performance hasn't been too shabby.

 

[cirr]

The Chinese economy is still growing at annual rate of some 7% while the US economy contracted an annualized 0.7% during Q1。

And if it was not for the US‘ taking advantage of the dollar as the world's reserve currency by default，the US economy would have been shrinking at annual rate of 3% plus for at least the last 3 years。

Ridding dollar of its reserve currency status is the shortest route to weakening US the world's tyranny。

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

The Chinese economy is still growing at annual rate of some 7% while the US economy contracted an annualized 0.7% during Q1。

And if it was not for the US‘ taking advantage of the dollar as the world's reserve currency by default，the US economy would have been shrinking at annual rate of 3% plus for at least the last 3 years。

Ridding dollar of its reserve currency status is the shortest route to weakening US the world's tyranny。

You don't understand the role of reserve currency. With reserve currency comes a lot of opportunities and privileges, but also with some negatives.

By definition, you can't have a safe haven, which can devalue a lot. Personal Consumption actually increased in US, while the economy still contracted, because of strong dollar. For US a strong dollar isn't good after a point, yet after EU and Japan easing, and other easing across the world, has led to capital flooding to US, and dollar remaining strong.

So reserve currency is not this golden chip. It comes with its demerits as well.

The Chinese economy is still growing at annual rate of some 7% while the US economy contracted an annualized 0.7% during Q1。

And if it was not for the US‘ taking advantage of the dollar as the world's reserve currency by default，the US economy would have been shrinking at annual rate of 3% plus for at least the last 3 years。

Ridding dollar of its reserve currency status is the shortest route to weakening US the world's tyranny。

Also, you don't seem to know a lot of economics it appears. You pulled out the "without reserve currency" stats out of nowhere. Also, US is still growing at 2% annualized YoY, which is Ok, for an advanced economy.

The Chinese economy is still growing at annual rate of some 7% while the US economy contracted an annualized 0.7% during Q1。

And if it was not for the US‘ taking advantage of the dollar as the world's reserve currency by default，the US economy would have been shrinking at annual rate of 3% plus for at least the last 3 years。

Ridding dollar of its reserve currency status is the shortest route to weakening US the world's tyranny。

It is time you start developing some rational arguments. Your first sentence is accurate, while second sentence is totally speculative.

 

[Pulsar]

Chinese economy already passed its peak

What goes up must come down!

 

[TheTruth]

What goes up must come down!

That's why Singapore is converging to India levels, right?

 

[AugenBlick]

China is already developed a lot.... So I would rather call it saturation.
Thats not bad... they are doing pretty good.

 

[sword1947]

yes, China have been collapsing with the speed of 10% per year for more than 20 years, and now collapsing with 7%. and we will keep on collapsing for another 20 years.

Chinese economy already passed its peak

yes, it is time for India to be No.1

 

[Royal Kathiyawadi]

You don't understand the role of reserve currency. With reserve currency comes a lot of opportunities and privileges, but also with some negatives.

By definition, you can't have a safe haven, which can devalue a lot. Personal Consumption actually increased in US, while the economy still contracted, because of strong dollar. For US a strong dollar isn't good after a point, yet after EU and Japan easing, and other easing across the world, has led to capital flooding to US, and dollar remaining strong.

So reserve currency is not this golden chip. It comes with its demerits as well.



Also, you don't seem to know a lot of economics it appears. You pulled out the "without reserve currency" stats out of nowhere. Also, US is still growing at 2% annualized YoY, which is Ok, for an advanced economy.



It is time you start developing some rational arguments. Your first sentence is accurate, while second sentence is totally speculative.

he is a Chinese, (mainlander) Enough Said !