China's economy is in bad shape and could stay that way for a while

[Mista]

Not in the same league, China grows one India in GDP every year.

Every year? That's just due to special circumstances from Covid rebound and RMB appreciating almost 10% in 2021 against the USD. The RMB has depreciated almost 10% against the USD this year. Are you going to argue that China is shrinking half the size of India every year and extrapolate?

The more appropriate way of calculating would be to first measure the increase in RMB terms and convert it to USD terms, rather than measuring the economy in USD terms and take the difference. Both are technically not wrong, but the former would be more appropriate as it is less subjected to exchange rate fluctuations.

 

[beijingwalker]

That's just due to special circumstances from Covid rebound and RMB appreciating almost 10% in 2021 against the USD. The RMB has depreciated almost 10% against the USD this year. Are you going to argue that China is shrinking half the size of India every year and extrapolate?

The more appropriate way of calculating would be to first measure the increase in RMB terms and convert it to USD terms, rather than measuring the economy in USD terms and take the difference. Both are technically not wrong, but the former would be more appropriate as it is less subjected to exchange rate fluctuations.

Indian currency depreciates more than RMB, so half the size won't happen.

Rupee depreciates by 25% since Dec 2014 due to global factors: FM

The value of the rupee declined from 63.33 against a dollar on December 31, 2014, to 79.41 on July 11, 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a reply quoting RBI data.

www.business-standard.com

 

[Lava820]

At the moment the emperor has no clothes

 

[Beast]

@Black Tornado Can you expose this chinese bot once again?

LOL.. A bot who claim others are bot. Typical Indian style!

Wumao posting 2020 wuhan virus era data

@waz @Irfan Baloch @PakSword

Indian troll at works again with zero contribution reply.

 

[beijingwalker]

At least China's economy is still growing, unlike US, keep shrinking..

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear

The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession.

apnews.com

 

[Mista]

Indian currency depreciates more than RMB, so half the size won't happen.

Rupee depreciates by 25% since Dec 2014 due to global factors: FM

The value of the rupee declined from 63.33 against a dollar on December 31, 2014, to 79.41 on July 11, 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a reply quoting RBI data.

www.business-standard.com

Most currencies are depreciating against the USD this year, it doesn't mean the global economy is shrinking.

Let's ignore the USD and take direct RMB/Rupee conversion instead.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202107/t20210716_1819540.html

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202207/t20220715_1886607.html

China grew about RMB1tril in the latest quarter compared to a year earlier.

That's around Rs11.5tril going by current exchange rate.

India's GDP in the latest quarter is around Rs65tril.

India's Q1FY23 GDP grows 13.5%, fastest in a year: Govt data

India's GDP growth in Q1FY22 was 20.1%

www.business-standard.com

Rs11.5tril / Rs65tril * 100% = ~17.6%.

So it's more like China has added ~1/5 the size of India in the latest quarter.

To be fair, China took a hard hit in their latest quarter due to their zero-covid policies. Otherwise China could probably add ~1/2 the size of India. But definitely not adding the full size of India every year. India has a GDP of >USD3tril. If China can consistently add an entire India's GDP every year, China would surpass the US in 2 or 3 years time.

 

[beijingwalker]

Most currencies are depreciating against the USD this year, it doesn't mean the global economy is shrinking.

Let's ignore the USD and take direct RMB/Rupee conversion instead.

View attachment 877929
View attachment 877930

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202107/t20210716_1819540.html

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202207/t20220715_1886607.html

China grew about RMB1tril in the latest quarter compared to a year earlier.

That's around Rs11.5tril going by current exchange rate.

View attachment 877931

India's GDP in the latest quarter is around Rs65tril.

View attachment 877933

India's Q1FY23 GDP grows 13.5%, fastest in a year: Govt data

India's GDP growth in Q1FY22 was 20.1%

www.business-standard.com

Rs11.5tril / Rs65tril * 100% = ~17.6%.

So it's more like China is added ~1/5 the size of India in the latest quarter.

To be fair, China took a hard hit in their latest quarter due to their zero-covid policies. Otherwise China could probably add ~1/2 the size of India. But definitely not adding the full size of India every year. India has a GDP of >USD3tril. If China can consistently add an entire India's GDP every year, China would surpass the US in 2 or 3 years time.

We based GDP on the exchange rate of the same year, you can go back years to revise the GDPs numbers on today's exchange rate.

 

[Mista]

At least China's economy is still growing, unlike US, keep shrinking..

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear

The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession.

apnews.com

That's QoQ growth. If they measure by YoY, which China usually adopts, the US grew at 1.7% in Q2.

United States GDP Annual Growth Rate

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 2.70 percent in the third quarter of 2024 over the same quarter of the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low...

tradingeconomics.com

China's QoQ growth is also negative btw.

Table 1: YoY, Table 2: QoQ

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202207/t20220715_1886607.html

 

[beijingwalker]

That's QoQ growth. If they measure by YoY, which China usually adopts, the US grew at 1.7% in Q2.

China's QoQ growth is also negative btw.

Table 1: YoY, Table 2: QoQ
View attachment 877939

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202207/t20220715_1886607.html

China indeed grew over one India in GDP last year, as for if China can pull this trick every year or not, we'll see in the future.
Buy the way, US economcy is being artificially hyped by its super high inflation, so I agree that dollar based GDP becomes more and more meaningless now

 

[Lava820]

China indeed grew over one India in GDP last year

• Last year’s GDP was also cut by 241.9 billion yuan (US$37.98 billion) from the initial figure published in January to 101.36 trillion yuan (US$15.91 trillion)
• https://www.scmp.com/economy/econom...p-2020-economic-growth-figure-revised-down-22

India’s current gdp is USD 3.2 trillion.

A $30 Trillion Economy?

Minhaz Merchant - Who’s right? Neither. As it turns out, India will probably be a $30 trillion economy well before 2052 and obviously long before 2065., , economy growth, economy industrial growth, Magazine 30 July 2022

www.businessworld.in

At least China's economy is still growing

No you're not

"Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 2.6% in the three months to the end of June"

Coronavirus: China economy shrinks on zero-Covid policy

The world's second largest economy slowed after lockdowns across a number of cities.

www.bbc.com

@Mista

 

[beijingwalker]

• Last year’s GDP was also cut by 241.9 billion yuan (US$37.98 billion) from the initial figure published in January to 101.36 trillion yuan (US$15.91 trillion)
• https://www.scmp.com/economy/econom...p-2020-economic-growth-figure-revised-down-22

India’s current gdp is USD 3.2 trillion.

A $30 Trillion Economy?

Minhaz Merchant - Who’s right? Neither. As it turns out, India will probably be a $30 trillion economy well before 2052 and obviously long before 2065., , economy growth, economy industrial growth, Magazine 30 July 2022

www.businessworld.in

I m talking China grew more than one India last year, as for this year, we'll still wait and see. The point is India's economy is just a small faction of China, two countries are not in the same league by any standard, so your foolhardy comparison is extremely funny.

 

[S10]

China's immediate problems:

- Zero COVID policy choking domestic investment and consumption
- Real estate bubble
- Xi's bid for power utilizing censorship and cult of personality causing discontent

China's long term problems:

- Aging and declining population
- Wealth inequality

 

[kankan326]

China's immediate problems:

- Zero COVID policy choking domestic investment and consumption
- Real estate bubble
- Xi's bid for power utilizing censorship and cult of personality causing discontent

China's long term problems:

- Aging and declining population
- Wealth inequality

I don't see the immediate problems as problems. As for the long term problems, USA also has same problems. I know you will say US doesn't have declining population problem because it has immigrants. That's another problem China doesn't have. The grand remplacement

 

[S10]

I don't see the immediate problems as problems. As for the long term problems, USA also has same problems. I know you will say US doesn't have declining population problem because it has immigrants. That's another problem China doesn't have. The grand remplacement

I love your approach. Deny problems are problems, then problems solved. China's economy is grinding to a halt thanks to real estate crisis and zero COVID policy, and newly graduated university students have an unemployment rate of 20%. That's not to mention underemployment. Sure, pretend everything is fine and keep chanting party slogans.

China's birth rate is abysmal compared to US. CPC held on to the dumb one child policy for an entire decade longer than it should have, just like they're holding on to zero COVID.

China - 1.16 in 2021
US - 1.66 in 2011

 

[kankan326]

I love your approach. Deny problems are problems, then problems solved. China's economy is grinding to a halt thanks to real estate crisis and zero COVID policy, and newly graduated university students have an unemployment rate of 20%. That's not to mention underemployment. Sure, pretend everything is fine and keep chanting party slogans.

China's birth rate is abysmal compared to US. CPC held on to the dumb one child policy for an entire decade longer than it should have, just like they're holding on to zero COVID.

China - 1.16 in 2021
US - 1.66 in 2011

I support zero covid policy. We are in a WORLD wide recession and pandemic. All problems China has, other countries also have them. If other countries perform worse than China, it's also a win for China. I know US has a better fertility rate. But the white race fertility rate is not better than China's