China’s bullet trains facilitate market integration and mitigate the cost of megacity growth

[cirr]

hey cirr: I just want the good things for Chinese people.
If more convenience for average people or more for rich guys .. I will go for average one of majority.

Is it any bad if I wish Chinese people could use HSR more often when the fare is minimized ?

Have you seen the latest World Bank Report on China's HSR？

It is mentioned in the full report that HSR ticket prices in China are 1/5 - 1/4 those in other countries。

Do you know the average annual income of China's 300 million and growing middle class？Check it out。

I will leave you to work out the maths to determine for yourself if HSR is affordable in China。

PS Don't overlook the fact that the HSR travelers are subsidizing the “Green Skin” takers，with the later’s enjoyment of extremely low prices partly made possible by customers who are willing to pay for speed、comfort and convenience which are hallmarks of HSR。

 

[BoQ77]

VN poor no HST

so many false flag created by Chinese.

Genesis: your information is very useful.
to determine the performance of HSR is not easy. True.
A comment of foreigner in China, he said, the cars are almost empty, that shouldnot be lasted for so long.

I see that, it seem China build HSR as replacement for lacking of air transportation.
Especially true for long distance ...

Air is flexible, as long as you completed the airport ... you could add more or remove some flights based on your season demand.
1000+ distance is the field for air passenger.
Budget or low cost airlines make everyone could fly ...

cirr: help me to make clear more ?

Have you seen the latest World Bank Report on China's HSR？

It is mentioned in the full report that HSR ticket prices in China are 1/5 - 1/4 those in other countries。
I checked it and found that it's totally not cheap as you said. Give me the fare compared to your income pls

Do you know the average annual income of China's 300 million and growing middle class？Check it out。
Someone told me 600 million, when I inquired that's almost total working force of China ? He kept silenc. I'm more than happy to see more and more Chinese could afford for HSR even it's expensive, but pls prove that's true ...

I will leave you to work out the maths to determine for yourself if HSR is affordable in China。

PS Don't overlook the fact that the HSR travelers are subsidizing the “Green Skin” takers，with the later’s enjoyment of extremely low prices partly made possible by customers who are willing to pay for speed、comfort and convenience which are hallmarks of HSR。

 

[somsak]

Are HSRs consume less energy/head than Airplane?
When one think about the development of country, sometime you have to be more visionary than a normal passenger thought.
Passengers can just think that you want to travel from city A to B, which one is cheaper/more confortable/less chance of accidents for a snapshort of that particular time.
The price of oil and gas is not constant. Therefore a snapshort view of price is just like a photo of a water current.
While you capture the image of a river, the river may be seen not too wide. The year long video of river water, however, shows that the river banks are not constant, but changes over time. For a passenger, it is Ok just to think that Im going to cross the river at a particular month, just to ask how wide is the river. For a country to build a permanent bridge over this river, it must know the statistics in the past of this river, in order to predict the maximum size of the river in the future.

The price of oil I only can foresee is increasing. Under this prediction, is it wise to build more airports or more HSR?
Once the cost of HSR rail investment are covered, the HST price can drop. Just like what happened in mobile phone market. It can be drop to the {price of energy at that time /head}.

For a government with visionary, the calculation is done on the future continuous time, which is different than passenger's present snapshort calculation.

 

[somsak]

The other points where railroads are better than air relies on combinatoric nature of Railways.

For n stations of railways, there are n possible arrival, and n-1 methods of terminals. Therefore, there are
n(n-1) methods of getting up-down. A Line of 30 stations -> 870 methods. A line of 50 stations -> 2450 methods.

For air line to compete, you must build 870 airlines, and 2450 airlines, respectively. Is it possible to make a profitable air lines to covers all these small cities?
Have you ever take a plane of 3 seats wide, and a mid walk way? Its even smaller than a bus! I really hate it.
Many people compare railroads with Air investment based on passenger experience does not take into calculation of this fact. They always think about big cities. Railroads can provide services for those small city to small cities commuters.

 

[BoQ77]

effort to reach any destination nation-wide by HSR is not wise ...
I believe that HSR would create more gap between rich and poor in society ..
that's why it should develop slower, most focused on east coast metropolis ...

 

[somsak]

effort to reach any destination nation-wide by HSR is not wise ...
I believe that HSR would create more gap between rich and poor in society ..
that's why it should develop slower, most focused on east coast metropolis ...

What if the price of oil in the future is 500 dollar/barrel?
Do you know the price of oil?

 

[BoQ77]

What if the price of oil in the future is 500 dollar/barrel?
Do you know the price of oil?

100 dollar more or less

 

[somsak]

Rajdumnern road is big and wide. Its 8 lens road, which was built 250 years ago.

At that time people use buffalo carts to travel. It seems that the road is way way too wide.
They ask Rama1 of Thailand, why do you build a too- wide road. He said in the future, there will be massive lots of buffalo carts.
Today its not wide enough. Though his visionary of buffalo carts is a bit incorrect, his prediction that the road should be very wide, were correct.

Therefore, for a country development, one must think in terms of future value of belongings, not just the current face value.

100 dollar more or less

Suppose the price of oil increase 5 folds, the plane ticket will increase 5 folds.
Since HSR energy usage per head is much less, the 5 folds of the smaller number means that the future ticket price will not be 5 incrased. Current payment should be on to repay the Railroad construction cost, which does not change over price of oil.

Fact: Trains are 3 times as energy efficient as cars and 6 times as efficient as planes on a per passenger mile basis.
More reading on High speed train energy efficiency.
High Speed Rail Works | High Speed Rail Works--Myths and Facts

 

[BoQ77]

@somsak : for amtrak, their plan is very steadily developed ... mentioned on speed.
go faster, more energy spent ... so it's not good to spread wide 300+km/h ... HSR
Amtrak long-range rail all only under 177km/h
even American average income 9 times higher than Chinese

 

[somsak]

@somsak : for amtrak, their plan is very steadily developed ... mentioned on speed.
go faster, more energy spent ... so it's not good to spread wide 300+km/h ... HSR
Amtrak long-range rail all only under 177km/h
even American average income 9 times higher than Chinese

Therefore in the 1st post I ask about the energy/head of China HSR, which I don't know.

You do not rely on feeling/propaganda or nationalism to think about a project.
What you rely on is cost/benefit calculation.

500 USD/barrel oil price will get rid of middle class ability to do long distance travel as well.
You have to calculate that "If the oil price is 500 USD, how much should be a plane ticket price/km?"
"If the oil price is 500 USD, how much should be a HSR ticket price/km?"

If you wait until the price of oil is 500 USD/Barrel, you construction cost of the HSR will also increase.
No matter you choose to build HSR or not. People in the future will judge which way is smarter.

Have you ever do investment? Think it in the same way.

 

[Phukimak]

Therefore in the 1st post I ask about the energy/head of China HSR, which I don't know.

You do not rely on feeling/propaganda or nationalism to think about a project.
What you rely on is cost/benefit calculation.

500 USD/barrel oil price will get rid of middle class ability to do long distance travel as well.
You have to calculate that "If the oil price is 500 USD, how much should be a plane ticket price/km?"
"If the oil price is 500 USD, how much should be a HSR ticket price/km?"

If you wait until the price of oil is 500 USD/Barrel, you construction cost of the HSR will also increase.
No matter you choose to build HSR or not. People in the future will judge which way is smarter.

Have you ever do investment? Think it in the same way.

Hey, somsak... How it feel talking to the wall?

 

[BoQ77]

For Amtrak, the first step, they must find out at which speed, their train should operate for specific route.
which run at 320km/h, which 265, which 200, which 177, which under 177 km/h ...

have in mind that USA has a full-developed of air passenger network, the project of Amtrak focus on the best rate effective/cost of short range, medium range, long range ... under competing of air passenger.

 

[Edison Chen]

LOL

 

[jkroo]

Yes. China has the world largest and advanced HSR system. 13年我国高铁客流量5.3亿人次，数据在这儿摆着，不需要解释，特别是跟越南人。我们坐自己的高铁，跟别人有什么关系。

明白人，顶你

 

[djsjs]

没别的选择，公司规定机票低于六折并且里程超过1500公里才能坐飞机，所以平时只能选高铁动车，目前还没发现谁选卧铺