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A man counts renminbi banknotes. (Photo/CNS)
China's total debt is 215% higher than the country's GDP, indicating that its economic development has relied heavily on capital from loans and that the total factor productivity has not improved, reports the Chinese-language Beijing News.
Li Yang, deputy head of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said on Monday in Beijing that it was estimated that China's debt scale had touched 111.6 trillion yuan (US$18.4 trillion) last year, taking up 215% of the GDP that year.
The debt situation in the real estate market was particularly serious last year. Outstanding household loans were pegged at 16.1 trillion yuan (US$2.6 trillion) in 2012, accounting for 31% of the GDP. Of these, long-term consumption loans stood at 10.2 trillion yuan (US$1.7 trillion).
The amount of debt, including local lending, that the local governments had incurred at the end of 2012 was recorded at 27.7 trillion yuan (US$4.6 trillion), which accounted for 53% of the GDP, with a part of these loans being used to develop the housing market.
The high debt level had the potential to create a bubble in the sector, the paper said. Loans granted in the housing market had the characteristic of long durations, with household loans normally taking a decade to three decades to be paid off.
At present, residential housing, which is worth 100 trillion yuan (US$16.5 trillion), coupled with commercial buildings, worth 200 trillion yuan (US$33 trillion), makes up 385% of the GDP.
When the real estate bubble peaked in the United States in 2005, the value of the housing market in the country accounted for 172% of the GDP. As a result, the subprime mortgage crisis emerged in 2006 and broke out in 2007, which had resulted in a global financial crisis in 2008.
China should therefore learn a lesson from the US experience and treat it as a warning signal and remain cautious. Another risk is the debt accumulated by local government's lending platforms. The current debt of these platforms has led to unlimited GDP growth over the past decade. The money was used to build infrastructure and new cities or even ghost cities, the paper said, adding that Beijing needs to change the country's pattern of development and adjust its economic structure to achieve healthy and sustainable economic growth.
Accumulated debts pose risks to China's economy|Markets|Business|WantChinaTimes.com