China's 99% -- Why China Will Not Surpass the U.S.

[BigDaddyWatch]

You see the problem with article's like this is that whether or not China can overtake America is a two horse race and they are only focussing on the problems of one horse here. Article's like this always talks about a litany of problems in China and the difficulties in resolving them. They tent to underplay America's problems and perhabs overstate that of China's. The narrative in the western media is that China has structural problems with its economy thats difficult to resolve while the American economy is "recovering". I don't agree with this.

If we start to look at the problems in the American economy for a second. Today America has about a 2,5% growth rate in it's GDP while interest rate are at 0% for the past four years and trillions of dollars have been printed out of thin air in the QE programs. The budget deficit in the US is more than a trillion dollars a year for the past four years and that's about 8 to 10% of GDP. And after all of that you're economy is ONLY growing at 1 to 2 % a year then you are in serious trouble. The debt of the nation is growing 4 to 5 times faster than the economy. And if you look at the trade graph of the past 30 years you will see that the US has a constant trade deficit with the rest of the world there are very few month and quarters where the US registered a trade surplus. Today the US has trading relations with about 135 nations around the world and the US register a trade deficit with about 90 of them. All of this points to deep seated structural problems in the economy of the US that is simply not being recognised and addressed by the politicians or the media in America. In other words Americans are living in denial of their problems while the rot in their society and economy continues unabated. In the past 3 years of the recovery people's income in America has gone down faster than in the previous 2,5 years of the recession. This is because a lot of people in America has to trade down their jobs. They used to hold a job that pays 50,000 to 60,000 dollars a year but now has to settle for a job that only pays about 30,000 to 40,000 dollars a year if not less. the QE programs (the printing of money) has eroded people's purchasing power and 0% interest rate is destroying people's savings for those that have any.

The question of whether or not China can overtake America is not only about China's ability to overcome her problems but also about America's ability to overcome hers. On that front China is ahead because they recognise their problems while America is at sleep about theirs.

 

[Developereo]

Article's like this always talks about a litany of problems in China and the difficulties in resolving them.

China should welcome such articles.

It means the US need not be concerned about China: it can drop the China containment policy and stop supporting regional rivals to counter China. China is not a threat to American dominance, so no worries!

Of course, there might be other countries which might rise up on the threat matrix instead....

 

[Arya Desa]

China should welcome such articles.

It means the US need not be concerned about China: it can drop the China containment policy and stop supporting regional rivals to counter China. China is not a threat to American dominance, so no worries!

Of course, there might be other countries which might rise up on the threat matrix instead....

I heard Pakistan is a strong contender for leader of the Pan Universe Council.

 

[my2cents]

As China received FDI and technology transfer from west and from its own diaspora, they have achieved progress and double digit growths. In case of China, over past 30 years it received close to trillion dollars in investment from the west, Hong Kong and Taiwan. They created massive manufacturing base because of cheap land, labor and educated citizens. These companies have reaped huge profits by exporting finished goods to the western countries. These Western nations lost manufacturing bases but have benefited by getting their washers and dryers , microwave ovens and other niceties for real cheap. Even the middle income people's standards of living improved. In turn these countries have invested their profits smartly in educating their people and have moved them successfully from manufacturing into high tech. and service oriented industries. The value additions these companies create have transformed their economies to what they are today.

As China progressed and formed massive middle class they started consuming these products and the Western nations became more richer. So to a large extant the value additions were provided by the west and they still have the edge in this respect. For China to move forward to attract capital and know how, they have to leap frog the technological hurdles by creating advanced research institutes and universities of excellence to fill the gap.

In my assessment I would give China another 30-50 years to come any were close to be called developed.

 

[UKBengali]

Predictions based on what? 2005 PPP growth rates? Can you support anything you've said with some links/facts based on current trends or just repeating the mantra in hopes that you too will get 50 cents?

Well China is very close to eclipsing US GDP as we speak now any ways. Around 60% in terms of dollars and still growing several times as quick. Add in the currency appreciation and the US's days as the world's number one economy is numbered.

Try to explain why China's economy won't still grow much faster than the US, as GDP/capita will still be much lower even when China's total GDP matches US, and I may just be interested in engaging with someone like you.

If you cannot, then don't bother replying to my posts. Thanks.

Predictions based on what? 2005 PPP growth rates? Can you support anything you've said with some links/facts based on current trends or just repeating the mantra in hopes that you too will get 50 cents?

Well China is very close to eclipsing US GDP as we speak now any ways. Around 60% in terms of dollars and still growing several times as quick. Add in the currency appreciation and the US's days as the world's number one economy is numbered.

Try to explain why China's economy won't still grow much faster than the US, as GDP/capita will still be much lower even when China's total GDP matches US, and I may just be interested in engaging with someone like you.

If you cannot, then don't bother replying to my posts. Thanks.

 

[Audio]

Well China is very close to eclipsing US GDP as we speak now any ways. Around 60% in terms of dollars and still growing several times as quick. Add in the currency appreciation and the US's days as the world's number one economy is numbered.

Try to explain why China's economy won't still grow much faster than the US, as GDP/capita will still be much lower even when China's total GDP matches US, and I may just be interested in engaging with someone like you.

If you cannot, then don't bother replying to my posts. Thanks.



Well China is very close to eclipsing US GDP as we speak now any ways. Around 60% in terms of dollars and still growing several times as quick. Add in the currency appreciation and the US's days as the world's number one economy is numbered.

Try to explain why China's economy won't still grow much faster than the US, as GDP/capita will still be much lower even when China's total GDP matches US, and I may just be interested in engaging with someone like you.
If you cannot, then don't bother replying to my posts. Thanks.

I dont owe you any explanation, i am not paid to educate you. You haven't provided any links or anything that supports your "thesis" anyhow, but since im a good guy.....

For example, China's economy in 2013 will still be smaller than America's. But because it is growing so fast, it will add $1.65 trillion compared to America's $1.43 trillion.

World GDP: In search of growth | The Economist

Not going so fast as you would want us to believe. Also, i dont have info for 2011, but in 2010 it was not 60% of US gdp. More like 40% off a rough calculation.

United States 14,447,100 mill.$
China 5,739,358 mill. $

Also, what will Chinese people work? I mean, they are already employed in their millions for the factory of the world, and it is quite unlikely there would be a surge in world's middle class consumer population. On top of that, some factories are closing up and reshoring to US, to a lesser extent to Europe.
Exports have been falling since 2008...now CCP isn't dumb, they know what is happening, they try to amend this by lowering their bank's minimal cash reserve to stimulate credits to the populace in hopes to boost consumer demand. And it is working. They also like to invest in infrastructure, which on it's own is nothing bad, unless it goes to the extreme of making uninhabited cities just to boost that quarter's gdp.

With all this said, i wish every Chinese here lots of luck and prosperity, i know it sometimes sounds as if i hate them, but i really do not. they're just too loud sometimes...

 

[UKBengali]

I dont owe you any explanation, i am not paid to educate you. You haven't provided any links or anything that supports your "thesis" anyhow, but since im a good guy.....




World GDP: In search of growth | The Economist

Not going so fast as you would want us to believe. Also, i dont have info for 2011, but in 2010 it was not 60% of US gdp. More like 40% off a rough calculation.

United States 14,447,100 mill.$
China 5,739,358 mill. $

Also, what will Chinese people work? I mean, they are already employed in their millions for the factory of the world, and it is quite unlikely there would be a surge in world's middle class consumer population. On top of that, some factories are closing up and reshoring to US, to a lesser extent to Europe.
Exports have been falling since 2008...now CCP isn't dumb, they know what is happening, they try to amend this by lowering their bank's minimal cash reserve to stimulate credits to the populace in hopes to boost consumer demand. And it is working. They also like to invest in infrastructure, which on it's own is nothing bad, unless it goes to the extreme of making uninhabited cities just to boost that quarter's gdp.

With all this said, i wish every Chinese here lots of luck and prosperity, i know it sometimes sounds as if i hate them, but i really do not. they're just too loud sometimes...

Actually I have rechecked and in 2012 it is now around 51% rather than 60% of US GDP.

So in 2 years, China has gone from around 40% to 50% of US GDP.

Don't exactly have to be a genius to figure that it won't be long before China overtakes the US ~ 2020. Anyway China is now growing at a healthy 8% a year and it is increasingly relying in internal consumption rather than exports to drive it's growth.

No less than the "Economist" predicts that China will be richer than the WHOLE of the West combined in 2025.

I can't be bothered digging up that gem of an article so it is up to you to take it or leave it.

 

[madooxno9]

The only thing i find interesting is whenever there is a thread which shows potential problems inside China and specially the thread is opened by an Indian member , all of you start shooting at OP . Why kill the messenger , it's not his views .

Other thing i find more intersting is once you all kill the OP then you start India bashing which is the best you all can do, instead of offering your logical point of view you guys just go around bash India , throw personal rants and waste some bandwidth .

India is just a developing nation with its fair share of problems , we acknowledge it and our slow dumbas* government is working towards it . We can not take on all social and economically problems as China does. Our policies work within the steady frame work of democracy.

So please hold your grudges and don't kill OP for posting an article .

Peace

 

[carplii]

hmm, you definitely sounds a authentic korean ...

 

[neehar]

author presented the facts elegently...one needs to accept the drawbacks we have today inorder to grow tomorrow..

 

[Lyrical Mockery]

No one nation can rule the world. The US doesn't, not even the NATO. The world shall forever be divided into camps.

 

[Methu_Xie]

I don't understand why people get the idea that China can overtake the US or EU.

China has that middle-income trap and the local government debt problems to escape first.

You must understand , the US and EU is leading by Caucasian ,which is afraid to leave the leading position of the world.

I don't understand why people get the idea that China can overtake the US or EU.

China has that middle-income trap and the local government debt problems to escape first.

You must understand , the US and EU is leading by Caucasian ,which is afraid to leave the leading position of the world.

 

[Viet]

My best wishes for a peaceful rise of China.

I hope that we will never see again mass exodus of Chinese refugees, like we saw from the Ming Dynasty following the Manchu conquest.

 

[Audio]

Actually I have rechecked and in 2012 it is now around 51% rather than 60% of US GDP.

So in 2 years, China has gone from around 40% to 50% of US GDP.

How did you check if 2012 isn't over yet?

Don't exactly have to be a genius to figure that it won't be long before China overtakes the US ~ 2020. Anyway China is now growing at a healthy 8% a year and it is increasingly relying in internal consumption rather than exports to drive it's growth.

Yes, im certain genius and you aren't refering to the same person. You take one year's growth and extrapolate it in the most basic way to cover a almost decade, disregarding the common rule of economy, which is as wages grow to satisfy consumption, growth rates based on export inevitably fall.

Somehow the claim that consumption alone can account for 8% each year doesnt sound right, what do you think?

No less than the "Economist" predicts that China will be richer than the WHOLE of the West combined in 2025.

I can't be bothered digging up that gem of an article so it is up to you to take it or leave it.

Yes, you cant be bothered, sums you pretty much nicely, btw Google search on keywords "the "Economist" predicts that China will be richer than the WHOLE of the West combined" yields nothing.

Again, all hearsay and wishful thinking without any real facts to back it up. Try harder son.

btw, combined economy of the west without Japan, Korea is around 32 trillion. 15 for the US, 17 for the EU27.....

 

[UKBengali]

How did you check if 2012 isn't over yet?



Yes, im certain genius and you aren't refering to the same person. You take one year's growth and extrapolate it in the most basic way to cover a almost decade, disregarding the common rule of economy, which is as wages grow to satisfy consumption, growth rates based on export inevitably fall.

Somehow the claim that consumption alone can account for 8% each year doesnt sound right, what do you think?

Check out the IMF who think that China will grow at least 8% a year till 2017.

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

Yes, you cant be bothered, sums you pretty much nicely, btw Google search on keywords "the "Economist" predicts that China will be richer than the WHOLE of the West combined" yields nothing.

Again, all hearsay and wishful thinking without any real facts to back it up. Try harder son.

btw, combined economy of the west without Japan, Korea is around 32 trillion. 15 for the US, 17 for the EU27.....

EU27 is in terminal decline.

They are already talking about a "lost decade" in the UK now. The economy looks set to enter the THIRD recession in less than five years now.

Southern Europe(primarily Spain and Italy) are in deep economic crisis and are not competitive any more.

Without France and Germany the EU is nothing.

Europe will decline into insignificance within a couple of decades.