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China's 99% -- Why China Will Not Surpass the U.S.

Only Westerners and their followers such as Indians are raving “China will rule the world”.

Never in a single article from China ever says it wants to rule the world!

The foolish writer that is been treated by some Indians as holyman himself acknowledged in this article that the Chinese see a lots internal problems/crisis. (By a sharp contrast, Indians are always hunky-dory about their democratic system.)

This is typical western propaganda: first accuse you are a criminal, than curse you like a criminal.

That is readily picked up and gleefully hypered by some Indians with evil intention.

And some Indians love this western way as those Indians are staunch Western students: copy/paste their systems here and there, and their ideology as well.
 
I don't understand why people get the idea that China can overtake the US or EU.

China has that middle-income trap and the local government debt problems to escape first.

You are right, Mr. Korea. China never wants to rule the world, unlike your Koreans that the whole world, including china, was ruled by you; and even Jesus was a Korean. :lol:


Guess by now you should know why Korea has been under influence of China for so many thousand years that if you don't study Chinese you don't even know your history which were mostly in Chinese.
 
There is no Twitter in China, as I recently confirmed with the co-founder of Twitter, Biz Stone. Facebook does not function, and the Internet and all online news is censored. Chinese citizens will increasingly face an asymmetric information gap as they struggle to compete with other large developing countries such as India, which allow the free flow of information.

Right!

Chinese government rightfully blocked western propaganda in China: a great deed!

But this blind fool ignores the fact that Chinese Weibo (Chinese version of Twitter) has been enjoyed by hundreds of millions of internet users in China. Corrupted officials, scandals, briberies and embezzlements are constantly exposed by close to billions of internet users: the Chinese.

Now to make the fool even more foolish, he brings out India and that is high-lighted by the Indian that India has free flow of information.

Question to all:

Does the free flow of information reduce GDP gap between India and China? No! We see that gap from India’s GDP was greater than China’s in early 1960s to now India’s GDP is only 25% of China’s.

Does the free flow of information reduce India’s death of starvation as compared to China’s? No!

Does the free flow of information reduce India’s illiteracy as compared to China’s? No!

Does the free flow of information increased India’s life expectation as compared to China’s? No!

So, let's $crew western type of "free flow of information". They only want their information to flow freely, not the story of the other side.

An advice to the writer: don’t worry about China-India competition, worry about your debt crisis first. And let that information flow freely to the people.

An advice to IndoCrab, sorry, IndoCarib: following Westerners to bash China only makes India look worse. And let that information flow freely to some Indians.
 
and which country doesnt have local government debt problem
The Republic of Korea comes to my mind.

and how is that to trap China in to a 'mid-income' trap?
Local governments defaulting on loans means Chinese banks incur massive losses and stop lending to businesses. Private businesses already resort to loan sharks charging 25~50% interest today.


I'm still surprised how North Korea and Mongolia are not Chinese provinces yet.
Mongolia is protected by Russia.

As for North Korea, China risks the resumption of Korean War where it has to sacrifice half a million troops or more again. At least Chairman Mao had the decency to sacrifice his eldest son before asking Chinese families to sacrifice their sons; Xi Jinping doesn't have a son to sacrifice in the second war.

Unlike the last time, China has trillions to lose this time around.
 
The Republic of Korea comes to my mind.


Local governments defaulting on loans means Chinese banks incur massive losses and stop lending to businesses. Private businesses already resort to loan sharks charging 25~50% interest today.

Local government will only default on loans if the property market goes sharply downward. Large banks will suffer losses and the central government will most likely set an artificially low saving interests rate so banks can recover. This can be thought of as a saving tax to subsidize infrastructure and cheap housing. Not the perfect outcome, but hardly catastrophic.

Anyway, I doubt those taking money from loan sharks are genuine private businesses. They look more like private speculators to me. Anyone who think running a real businesses can make enough profits for a 25% -50% loan deserve to be feed to the sharks.


As for North Korea, China risks the resumption of Korean War where it has to sacrifice half a million troops or more again. At least Chairman Mao had the decency to sacrifice his eldest son before asking Chinese families to sacrifice their sons; Xi Jinping doesn't have a son to sacrifice in the second war.

Unlike the last time, China has trillions to lose this time around.

China is not going to send a million soldiers marching across the Yalu river just like that. There will be an 'internal power struggle' within NK . One of the factions will make a public request for China to move in and China will oblige in the name of securing weapons of mass destruction. I don't see the U.S having the stomach to get involved in something like this.
 
Why are you laughing at my analysis.

Mongolia has culture that is very close to China's. In fact China has a province called inner Mongolia. Maybe Mongolians in Mongolia would like to be united with their families in China.

Easy solution: Mongolia merges with China. Problem solved!

...........................
My analysis is valid.

Okay, please consider the following as a measure of just how INVALID your analysis really is:

Pakistan has culture that is very close to India's. In fact Pakistan used to be a part of India. Maybe some Pakistanis (a.k.a. "Muhajirs") in Pakistan would like to be united with their families in India.

Easy solution: Pakistan merges with India. Problem solved!

I would say your analysis is just plain WRONG.
 
Local government will only default on loans if the property market goes sharply downward.
Maybe Chinese media doesn't tell its citizens about those ghost cities that were constructed with loans but nobody lives there.

Anyway, I doubt those taking money from loan sharks are genuine private businesses.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/b...loan-sharks-come-knocking.html?pagewanted=all

China is not going to send a million soldiers marching across the Yalu river just like that. There will be an 'internal power struggle' within NK . One of the factions will make a public request for China to move in and China will oblige in the name of securing weapons of mass destruction.
Who will then have to battle Futenma Marines and ROKMC troops who already took out the nukes. Thanks to NK's nukes, the war plan calls for an automatic invasion when anything resembling a civil war breaks out in NK to seize nukes and chemical weapons. This is similar to the US military threats against Pakistani nuke sites, except that the ROK and US military do drill this invasion every year with 50K troops participating.

This is why NK is complaining about the US and ROK "imperialists" practicing NK invasion, because the content of drill is indeed the NK invasion.

The only way that China can avoid an all out war is to stay out of NK. Because the moment PLA enters NK, which wont' be easy because all the bridges would have been taken out by then, they must battle hundreds of thousands of ROK and US troops already in NK and face air attack from 1000 allied airforce jets and bombers.



Why are you laughing at my analysis.
Because it's so stupid??

Mongolia has culture that is very close to China's.
That shows you know absolutely nothing about Mongolia. Mongolians aren't even as same race as the Chinese, who are of Southeast Asian origin.

In fact China has a province called inner Mongolia.
Which is the land that China took from Mongolia, the land that will revert back to Mongolia upon the collapse of the china communist party.

Maybe Mongolians in Mongolia would like to be united with their families in China.
Yes, Mongolians want their Mongolian brothers in Inner Mongolia to reunite with the motherland.

Easy solution: Mongolia merges with China. Problem solved!
1. Mongolians want nothing to do with China.
2. If China invades Mongolia, then China faces the wrath of Russia, who would be pleased to nuke China. In fact, Soviets did call to tell Nixon that they were gonna nuke China during the Soviet-Chinese war, and it was Nixon who saved China from the nuclear holocaust.

North Korea is basically a Chinese Protectorate.
And NK pays China back by distributing billion dollar worth of high quality drugs and supernotes. 4% of dollar bills circulating in China are NK supernotes, and unknown % of yuan bills in China are also NK supernotes.

Many North Koreans go to China to flee poverty and for opportunities.
Actually they are trying to flee "through" China to go to the ROK or the US, because they are automatically guaranteed a citizenship and asylum if they manage to get out of China to reach a foreign embassy in Russia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Why would NKers want to stay in China when they are guaranteed a citizenship in ROK or a green card in the US?
 
Maybe Chinese media doesn't tell its citizens about those ghost cities that were constructed with loans but nobody lives there.

Buildings in those cities were built by property developers, not local governments. Unless you're talking about roads, but roads to no where doesn't sound as scary does it?



Who will then have to battle Futenma Marines and ROKMC troops who already took out the nukes. Thanks to NK's nukes, the war plan calls for an automatic invasion when anything resembling a civil war breaks out in NK to seize nukes and chemical weapons. This is similar to the US military threats against Pakistani nuke sites, except that the ROK and US military do drill this invasion every year.

The only way that China can avoid an all out war is to stay out of NK. Because the moment PLA decide to enter NK, they must battle hundreds of thousands of ROK and US troops already in NK and face air attack from 1000 allied airforce jets and bombers.

So you think US and SK can catch the wind of a NK power struggle earlier than China? I'll not be surprised if potential plotters in NK will actually consult China before taking any actions.
 
The Truth is China WILL be the largest economy in the world just due to its size. However, China will be a long way in achieving the $35000 GDP per capita for all of it citizen. China will be a moderate income country, but that moderate income will provides for the Citizen of China a healthy living. China will never be the highest income country just due to it sizes.

Also, why is having Twitter, Google, and Facebook such a good thing? I don't get it why people keep harping on China for blocking all these sites. All of these companies listen to the US Department of State. They all based in the US where all datas are stored. People talk as if these companies are so pure and good. Why are they good? What makes them so good for Chinese people? I think people are brainwashed to thinking everything from America is good.

I think Chinese are smart for blocking these website and allow their own version to flourish to develop their local market. Without these control, wealthier country would go in and pretty much own everything and the Chinese would own nothing. I think it is essential for developing countries to protect itself from foreign capital dictating local economy. Of course, American are pissed because they can't milf ad revenue from the Chinese market. That's why there are such negative press about China. I would be pissed too. But from a Chinese perspective, these websites are not crucial technology where the Chinese need foreign involvement. Beside American are racists to Chinese company too, there is no Chinese company milking ad revenue from America, so why give American company a chance.

China has their own versions of these website, which does the same thing, where they can get ad revenues which goes into hiring Chinese people, building data farm in China, all the profits and cost goes back into Chinese economy. The information stays in China where they aren't subjected to Western subverison.

Sure the government censors but if you are regular joe who doesn't care about politics, what does that matter. I think the US companies censor too but we don't hear about it because all the news organization have no interest in doing stories that target their own economy.

I mean it is smart from a business standpoint and national security standpoint as well. I think national independence is a hallmark of a great country. Why let other country control your fate? Look at how much sanctions and subversion the Western governments inflict on other countries. I think Chinese government wants to be in charge of all the cruicial industries and technology, so when they do have a war they can survive even subjected to sanctions and subversions.
 
Indians are so full of their own delusions and their media portrays the same delusion!
 
Okay, please consider the following as a measure of just how INVALID your analysis really is:



I would say your analysis is just plain WRONG.

You analysis is WRONG! Just using CAPS isn't going to prove your points.

Pakistan and India have territorial disputes. Do China and Mongolia or China and North Korea have territorial disputes.

I'm a decendent of an immigrant family from India to Pakistan. My great grandfather from father from my father's side was the personal doctor of the Maharaja of Mariwar.

I do not belong to family that is ethnic Rajasthani. My family is ethnic Pathan.

I don't know my relatives in India. I have never been to India, and I do not plan to visit India any time soon until the territorial disputes are solved according to just and moral principles.

Now for Mongolia and North Korea. They have no conflict with China.

So there is no need for Mongolia or North Korea to hate China.

Your analysis has been debunked.

---------- Post added at 08:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:12 PM ----------

Local government will only default on loans if the property market goes sharply downward. Large banks will suffer losses and the central government will most likely set an artificially low saving interests rate so banks can recover. This can be thought of as a saving tax to subsidize infrastructure and cheap housing. Not the perfect outcome, but hardly catastrophic.

Anyway, I doubt those taking money from loan sharks are genuine private businesses. They look more like private speculators to me. Anyone who think running a real businesses can make enough profits for a 25% -50% loan deserve to be feed to the sharks.




China is not going to send a million soldiers marching across the Yalu river just like that. There will be an 'internal power struggle' within NK . One of the factions will make a public request for China to move in and China will oblige in the name of securing weapons of mass destruction. I don't see the U.S having the stomach to get involved in something like this.


This is what I thought. There are two different ideas in North Korea.

1) The Pro-China faction

2) Those that want Korean unification

However what makes you think China is going to let an American ally be on her doorstep?
 
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