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China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence

The second picture of China's Type 094 SSBN intrigued me. It looks like it has 16 launch tubes. The picture can be found in a April 27, 2015 Popular Science article on the Type 094 SSBN.

I've never seen a Chinese SSBN with more than 6 launch tubes on each side. The picture looks like a Type 094 upgrade. To be fair, one to two years ago on Chinese Defence Forum (CDF), you (ChineseTiger1986) claimed there was a Type 094 SSBN upgrade in the works.

Chinese Navy Stars in Latest U.S.Intelligence Report | Popular Science

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Did you notice the Seawolf/Virginia style of conning tower in the third picture?

This could be a further improved subclass of the Type 094.
 
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China's Nuclear-powered Submarine Spotted at Pakistani Port
IANS First published: January 6, 2017, 11:23 PM IST | Updated: Yesterday

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In this April 23, 2009 file photo, a Chinese Navy submarine takes part in an international fleet review to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army Navy in Qingdao, Shandong province. (Photo: Reuters)

Read the full article at http://www.news18.com/news/world/ch...marine-spotted-at-pakistani-port-1332508.html
 
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@Martian2
Also should add non-thermonuclear (fissile only) stockpiles in other states, some updates here:
UK 16 megaton (warhead yield range 80~110 kt)
Israel 1.6~12 megatons
Pakistan 2.1 megatons
India 1 megaton (warhead yield range sub-kt~20 kt)
http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/united-kingdom-nuclear-disarmament/
http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/israel-nuclear-disarmament/
http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/pakistan-nuclear-disarmament/
http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/india-nuclear-disarmament/
 
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China has about 57 DF-41 ICBMs with 570 thermonuclear warheads.

In January 2014, a Chinese DF-41 ICBM was seen leaving its manufacturing plant.

China Shows New Mobile ICBM on Internet | The Washington Free Beacon
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Since China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) builds both China's civilian Long March orbital rockets and the military DF-41 ICBM, we will assume a one-to-one correspondence. This means one military DF-41 ICBM is built for each civilian Long March orbital rocket. This assumption is reasonable, because China's military space budget dwarfs its civilian space budget.

In 2014, China conducted 16 orbital launches.[1]
In 2015, China conducted 19 orbital launches.[2]
In 2016, China attempted 22 orbital launches.[3]

Since January 2014 (when the picture of the DF-41 ICBM leaving its manufacturing plant was taken), China has launched 57 Long March orbital rockets. This means there should be about 57 DF-41 ICBMs produced to date.

Each Chinese DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRVs (ie. Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicle).

Thus, China has about 570 thermonuclear warheads deliverable by its DF-41 ICBMs. This total does not include the MIRVs on China's DF-5B 8-MIRV ICBMs, DF-31B 3-MIRV ICBMs, and JL-2 8-MIRV SLBMs.

References:

1. Launch Activity Hits 20-year High in 2014 | Space News
2. 2015 Space Launch Statistics | SpaceFlight 101
3. USA, China Led World in Launches in 2016 | Parabolic Arc
 
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The expansion by one brigade for China's DF-31A ICBM per year is normal. See citation from Britain`s International Institute of Strategic Studies below from the year 2010.

Assuming the expansion of China's DF-41 ICBM by 1 1/2 brigade per year is also reasonable, because China's nominal GDP ($11.4 trillion) is almost double the size of its nominal GDP in 2010 ($6 trillion).

China and START. Missile buildup may surpass U.S., Russia as they denuclearize

"China and START
By Richard D. Fisher Jr.,
The Washington Times,
20 September 2010
...
In its latest report to the Congress on China`s military released on Aug. 16, the Pentagon says there are less than 10 DF-31 and "10-15" DF-31A ICBMs, up to five more than reported in the previous year`s report, covering 2008. However, in the 2010 issue of "Military Balance," Britain`s International Institute of Strategic Studies notes there is one brigade of 12 DF-31s and two brigades or 24 DF-31A ICBMs, indicating a possible increase of one new brigade from 2008 to 2009."
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A larger military budget does imply a larger thermonuclear arsenal. For example, China fired 10 medium-range DF-21 ballistic missiles in ONE exercise as a show of force. The DF-21 is thermonuclear-capable.

China Flight-Tests 10 DF-21 Missiles | The Washington Free Beacon
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It is widely known that China's DF-41 ICBM can carry 10 MIRVs to overwhelm a missile defense system.

DF-41 | Deagel
"In July 2014 China officially confirmed the development of the DF-41 next generation ICBM with a range of 12,000 kilometers and 10 MIRVed warheads as a direct response to US missile defenses such as THAAD."

China Tests Powerful New Long-Range Nuclear Missile That Could Destroy A Major U.S. City In 30 Minutes | National Security
“As with previous MIRV tests, the PLA has used a small number of reentry vehicles to mask the real capability of the DF-41, which is estimated to be able to loft up to 10 warheads,” said Fisher.

China Flight Tests New Multiple-Warhead Missile | The Washington Free Beacon
"The DF-41 is assessed by U.S. intelligence agencies to be powerful enough to deliver between six and 10 warheads up to 7,456 miles—far enough to reach every corner of the United States from launch areas in eastern China."
 
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China may have deployed 3 brigades of DF-41 ICBMs | Sputnik News

I had previously guessed that China had built 57 DF-41 ICBMs (or 4 1/2 brigades).

However, the latest news from Sputnik News (via Apple Daily newspaper) indicates China has deployed only three brigades of DF-41 ICBMs.

DF-41 ICBM brigade locations:
a. near Daqing City
b. Xinyang, Henan
c. Xinjiang

3 brigades of DF-41 ICBMs x 12 ICBMs per brigade = 36 DF-41 ICBMs

36 DF-41 ICBMs x 10 MIRVs = 360 total thermonuclear warheads on DF-41 ICBMs
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China May Have Deployed Missiles Not Far From Border With Russia | Sputnik News

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China could have deployed 96 DF-41 ICBMs.

Let's count the total number of Chinese DF-41 ICBMs.

Chinese media, Russia's Sputnik News, and Russia's RT have reported that China has deployed three brigades of DF-41 ICBMs.

The DF-41 ICBM locations are:
a. Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China (see video below)
b. Xinyang City, Henan Province in central China
c. Xinjiang Province in northwestern China (deployment soon)

However, there appears to be a possible fourth DF-41 ICBM brigade in Tibet Province in southwestern China (see picture below). The terrain looks like the Tibetan plateau. The wide distribution of DF-41 ICBMs throughout continental-sized China is logical.

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Re-load of DF-41 ICBM


Chinese media have reported the deployment of three brigades of DF-41 ICBMs. There is photographic evidence of a possible fourth brigade of DF-41 ICBMs on the Tibetan plateau. However, we have only counted the number of DF-41 ICBM TELs (ie. Transporter Erector Launcher).

It is inefficient to fire only one ballistic missile per launcher. It is more logical to fire two ballistic missiles per launcher. This process is called re-loading. A DF-41 TEL can either be re-loaded with another DF-41 ICBM missile nearby or the DF-41 TEL can drive to a hidden re-supply location for another DF-41 ICBM.

If you accept that China has one re-load missile for each DF-41 TEL then the total number of Chinese DF-41 ICBMs has to be doubled.

Four brigades of DF-41 ICBMs (Heilongjiang, Henan, Xinjiang, and Tibet Provinces) with one re-load per DF-41 TEL yields 96 total DF-41 ICBMs.

4 DF-41 ICBM brigades x 12 DF-41 ICBM ballistic missiles per brigade x 2 (for the re-load) = 96 total DF-41 ICBMs

96 DF-41 ICBMs x 10 MIRVs for each DF-41 ICBM = 960 thermonuclear warheads on DF-41 ICBMs
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By the way, ballistic missile re-loading was a common practice. Thus, the US-Soviet/Russian START treaty specifically prohibits missile reloading (including silo-based ICBMs). However, China is not a signatory to any arms-control treaty on ICBMs and is not bound by the prohibition on ICBM reload.

China Conducts Second Flight Test of New Long-Range Missile | The Washington Free Beacon

"Fisher said there are reports that the Second Artillery Corps, as China’s missile service is called, includes at least one reload missile for each mobile missile-launcher system.


If the new DF-41 is deployed in the future with a reload missile per launcher, it would vastly increase the numbers of nuclear warheads in the Chinese arsenal, as many as 120 to 240 warheads for each DF-41 [brigade] unit."


8RdgR10.jpg

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If you haven't seen it yet, here is a Chinese DF-41 ICBM spotted at Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China. Chinese ballistic missiles are always deployed in a brigade, because it is a known standard Chinese military practice. There are charts of Chinese military brigades and the type of ballistic missiles under their control. Thus, if you spot a Chinese ballistic missile at a location then there are more nearby from the same brigade.

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This is an organization chart of a typical Chinese ballistic missile base. As you can see, the standard Chinese ballistic missile unit is a brigade. For example, in the chart below, the Hunan 803 Brigade controls 12 DF-5A ICBMs (which may have been upgraded by now to DF-5B 8-MIRV ICBMs).

Spotlight on New Second Artillery ICBM Base Leadership | Asia Eye

Chart I: Organizational Structure of 55 Base
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"Source: Second Artillery Handbook, July 25, 2011 (unpublished draft)"
 
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