So 294 MT is half of 1273 MT?
China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence
- Thread starter Martian2
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So 294 MT is half of 1273 MT?
Shotgunner51
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terranMarine
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Indian maths 
Shotgunner51
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Thanks for your analysis on DF41. Those brigades you mentioned use road-mobile TEL, how about rail-mobile launcher, are they deployed? Quantity?
There are also other topics like DF31, DF5B and such, please also share whenever convenient, thanks!
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ChineseTiger1986
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China could have deployed 96 DF-41 ICBMs.
Let's count the total number of Chinese DF-41 ICBMs.
Chinese media, Russia's Sputnik News, and Russia's RT have reported that China has deployed three brigades of DF-41 ICBMs.
The DF-41 ICBM locations are:
a. Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China (see video below)
b. Xinyang City, Henan Province in central China
c. Xinjiang Province in northwestern China (deployment soon)
However, there appears to be a possible fourth DF-41 ICBM brigade in Tibet Province in southwestern China (see picture below). The terrain looks like the Tibetan plateau. The wide distribution of DF-41 ICBMs throughout continental-sized China is logical.
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Re-load of DF-41 ICBM
Chinese media have reported the deployment of three brigades of DF-41 ICBMs. There is photographic evidence of a possible fourth brigade of DF-41 ICBMs on the Tibetan plateau. However, we have only counted the number of DF-41 ICBM TELs (ie. Transporter Erector Launcher).
It is inefficient to fire only one ballistic missile per launcher. It is more logical to fire two ballistic missiles per launcher. This process is called re-loading. A DF-41 TEL can either be re-loaded with another DF-41 ICBM missile nearby or the DF-41 TEL can drive to a hidden re-supply location for another DF-41 ICBM.
If you accept that China has one re-load missile for each DF-41 TEL then the total number of Chinese DF-41 ICBMs has to be doubled.
Four brigades of DF-41 ICBMs (Heilongjiang, Henan, Xinjiang, and Tibet Provinces) with one re-load per DF-41 TEL yields 96 total DF-41 ICBMs.
4 DF-41 ICBM brigades x 12 DF-41 ICBM ballistic missiles per brigade x 2 (for the re-load) = 96 total DF-41 ICBMs
96 DF-41 ICBMs x 10 MIRVs for each DF-41 ICBM = 960 thermonuclear warheads on DF-41 ICBMs
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By the way, ballistic missile re-loading was a common practice. Thus, the US-Soviet/Russian START treaty specifically prohibits missile reloading (including silo-based ICBMs). However, China is not a signatory to any arms-control treaty on ICBMs and is not bound by the prohibition on ICBM reload.
China Conducts Second Flight Test of New Long-Range Missile | The Washington Free Beacon
"Fisher said there are reports that the Second Artillery Corps, as China’s missile service is called, includes at least one reload missile for each mobile missile-launcher system.
If the new DF-41 is deployed in the future with a reload missile per launcher, it would vastly increase the numbers of nuclear warheads in the Chinese arsenal, as many as 120 to 240 warheads for each DF-41 [brigade] unit."
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If you haven't seen it yet, here is a Chinese DF-41 ICBM spotted at Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China. Chinese ballistic missiles are always deployed in a brigade, because it is a known standard Chinese military practice. There are charts of Chinese military brigades and the type of ballistic missiles under their control. Thus, if you spot a Chinese ballistic missile at a location then there are more nearby from the same brigade.
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This is an organization chart of a typical Chinese ballistic missile base. As you can see, the standard Chinese ballistic missile unit is a brigade. For example, in the chart below, the Hunan 803 Brigade controls 12 DF-5A ICBMs (which may have been upgraded by now to DF-5B 8-MIRV ICBMs).
Spotlight on New Second Artillery ICBM Base Leadership | Asia Eye
Chart I: Organizational Structure of 55 Base
"Source: Second Artillery Handbook, July 25, 2011 (unpublished draft)"
The re-load.
TaiShang
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grey boy 2
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I believed its new, nice one, thanks for sharing
Martian2
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Stratfor's New Chinese ICBM Range Map
Stratfor has released an updated map of the ranges of Chinese ICBMs launched from northeastern Heilongjiang Province. I will discuss the ICBMs listed on Stratfor's map.
How Far China's Nuclear Capabilities Stretch | Stratfor
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China's DF-31 ICBM can only reach Alaska and Hawaii. "The United States currently fields 26 interceptors at Fort Greely in Alaska and four at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California."[1] We expect China to use the DF-31 ICBM to neutralize the anti-ballistic missile interceptor base at Fort Greely in Alaska.
China has two brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31 ICBM[2] located at:
1. Nanyang (813th Brigade)
2. Xining (Urban/Industrial Brigade or U/I Brigade)
China's DF-31A ICBM can reach every major American city except Miami, Florida.
China has seven brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31A ICBM[3] located at:
1. Delingha
2. Haiyan
3. Datong (809 Brigade)
4. Tainshui (812 Brigade)
5. Xixia
6. Shaoyang (805 Brigade)
7. Yuxi
China's DF-5A/B ICBM can reach all of the United States.
China has eight brigades of the liquid-fuel DF-5A/B ICBM[4] located at:
1. Luoning/Luoyang (804th brigade)
2. Wuzhai (Base 25)
3. Xuanhua
4. Tongdao (805th brigade)
5. Lushi (801st brigade)
6. Jingxian (803rd brigade)
7. Jingxian (814th brigade)
8. Hunan (818th brigade)
China's DF-41 ICBM can also reach all of the United States.
China probably has four brigades of the solid-fuel DF-41 ICBM[5] located at:
a. Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China
b. Xinyang City, Henan Province in central China
c. Xinjiang Province in northwestern China (deployment soon)
d. There appears to be a fourth DF-41 ICBM brigade on the Chinese Tibetan Plateau (see picture below) in Tibet Province, China.
The total number of thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs can be calculated.
DF-31: 2 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 24 DF-31 ICBMs
DF-31A: 7 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 84 DF-31A ICBMs
DF-5A/B: 8 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 96 DF-5A/B ICBMs
DF-41: 4 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 48 DF-41 ICBMs
The DF-31 can only carry a single warhead. Thus, there are 24 thermonuclear warheads carried on the DF-31 ICBMs.
We should assume all DF-31A ICBMs are being upgraded to the DF-31B 3-MIRV variant.[6] Each DF-31A/B can carry three MIRVs. 84 DF-31A/B ICBMs x 3 = 252 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-5A missiles are being upgraded to DF-5B 8-MIRV missiles.[7] 96 DF-5B x 8 MIRVs = 768 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRVs on each missile.[8] 48 DF-41 ICBMs x 10 MIRVs= 480 thermonuclear warheads.
The current total is 1,524 thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs (which does not include SLBMs).
I think the technical definition of a re-load for an ICBM in a silo is that another ICBM can be fired within 24 hours.
If you accept China has one re-load ICBM per TEL or Silo then you have to double China's total to 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
Does 3,048 land-based Chinese thermonuclear warheads seem like a lot? It is important to remember that China detonated its first 3.3-megaton thermonuclear bomb in 1967. That was 50 years ago. China's economy is huge and it had 50 years to build 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
References:
1. Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) - GlobalSecurity.org
2. PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia
3. China: New START-type report | Nuclear Forces
Map of known DF-5A and DF-5B ICBM silo locations
Looking at an old map of known DF-5A and DF-5B silo locations, we see three brigades. Two brigades are DF-5A five-megaton single-warhead ICBMs and one brigade is DF-5B 10-MIRVed ICBMs.
As an aside, the map shows the locations of four DF-31A brigades.
4. DF-5 | Federation of American Scientists
PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia (54th and 55th bases)
MULTIMEGATON WEAPONS | Johnston Archive
5. China May Have Deployed Missiles Not Far From Border With Russia | Sputnik News
6. Confirmed: China is Upgrading ICBMs With Multiple Warheads | The Diplomat
"Beijing has been retrofitting single-warhead ICBMs with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles.
For the past several months, China has been upgrading single-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), according to U.S. intelligence agencies, The Washington Times reports.
'China is re-engineering its long-range ballistic missiles to carry multiple nuclear warheads,' the head of U.S. Strategic Command Admiral Cecil D. Haney said in a January 22 speech."
----------
China puts on show of force with DF-31B mobile ICBM missile test | South China Morning Post
"The People's Liberation Army launched a Dongfeng-31B on September 25 from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Centre - also known as the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre - in Shanxi province, according to US-based online newspaper The Washington Free Beacon.
The DF-31B is an upgraded version of the DF-31A and the launch was at least the second time the PLA's Second Artillery Corps had tested a DF-31 missile in the past three months. In late July, the PLA conducted a flight test of a DF-31A in what was the fourth known flight test of that missile in two years.
...
'The DF-31A was designed to carry three warheads. I think the new DF-31B is possibly a multi-warhead version with higher accuracy,' Wong said."
7. China adds warheads to older DF-5s | The Washington Times
"China’s military has begun retrofitting single-warhead DF-5 intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles, according to U.S. defense officials. The upgrading of the DF-5 missiles with multiple warheads, known as MIRVs, was detected by U.S. intelligence agencies within the past several months.
The addition of three warheads on the long-range missiles marks a significant shift for China’s nuclear arsenal that is increasing in both warheads and missile systems under a major buildup."
8. DF-41 | Deagel
"In July 2014 China officially confirmed the development of the DF-41 next generation ICBM with a range of 12,000 kilometers and 10 MIRVed warheads as a direct response to US missile defenses such as THAAD."
Stratfor has released an updated map of the ranges of Chinese ICBMs launched from northeastern Heilongjiang Province. I will discuss the ICBMs listed on Stratfor's map.
How Far China's Nuclear Capabilities Stretch | Stratfor
----------
China's DF-31 ICBM can only reach Alaska and Hawaii. "The United States currently fields 26 interceptors at Fort Greely in Alaska and four at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California."[1] We expect China to use the DF-31 ICBM to neutralize the anti-ballistic missile interceptor base at Fort Greely in Alaska.
China has two brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31 ICBM[2] located at:
1. Nanyang (813th Brigade)
2. Xining (Urban/Industrial Brigade or U/I Brigade)
China's DF-31A ICBM can reach every major American city except Miami, Florida.
China has seven brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31A ICBM[3] located at:
1. Delingha
2. Haiyan
3. Datong (809 Brigade)
4. Tainshui (812 Brigade)
5. Xixia
6. Shaoyang (805 Brigade)
7. Yuxi
China's DF-5A/B ICBM can reach all of the United States.
China has eight brigades of the liquid-fuel DF-5A/B ICBM[4] located at:
1. Luoning/Luoyang (804th brigade)
2. Wuzhai (Base 25)
3. Xuanhua
4. Tongdao (805th brigade)
5. Lushi (801st brigade)
6. Jingxian (803rd brigade)
7. Jingxian (814th brigade)
8. Hunan (818th brigade)
China's DF-41 ICBM can also reach all of the United States.
China probably has four brigades of the solid-fuel DF-41 ICBM[5] located at:
a. Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China
b. Xinyang City, Henan Province in central China
c. Xinjiang Province in northwestern China (deployment soon)
d. There appears to be a fourth DF-41 ICBM brigade on the Chinese Tibetan Plateau (see picture below) in Tibet Province, China.
The total number of thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs can be calculated.
DF-31: 2 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 24 DF-31 ICBMs
DF-31A: 7 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 84 DF-31A ICBMs
DF-5A/B: 8 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 96 DF-5A/B ICBMs
DF-41: 4 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 48 DF-41 ICBMs
The DF-31 can only carry a single warhead. Thus, there are 24 thermonuclear warheads carried on the DF-31 ICBMs.
We should assume all DF-31A ICBMs are being upgraded to the DF-31B 3-MIRV variant.[6] Each DF-31A/B can carry three MIRVs. 84 DF-31A/B ICBMs x 3 = 252 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-5A missiles are being upgraded to DF-5B 8-MIRV missiles.[7] 96 DF-5B x 8 MIRVs = 768 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRVs on each missile.[8] 48 DF-41 ICBMs x 10 MIRVs= 480 thermonuclear warheads.
The current total is 1,524 thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs (which does not include SLBMs).
I think the technical definition of a re-load for an ICBM in a silo is that another ICBM can be fired within 24 hours.
If you accept China has one re-load ICBM per TEL or Silo then you have to double China's total to 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
Does 3,048 land-based Chinese thermonuclear warheads seem like a lot? It is important to remember that China detonated its first 3.3-megaton thermonuclear bomb in 1967. That was 50 years ago. China's economy is huge and it had 50 years to build 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
References:
1. Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) - GlobalSecurity.org
2. PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia
3. China: New START-type report | Nuclear Forces
Map of known DF-5A and DF-5B ICBM silo locations
Looking at an old map of known DF-5A and DF-5B silo locations, we see three brigades. Two brigades are DF-5A five-megaton single-warhead ICBMs and one brigade is DF-5B 10-MIRVed ICBMs.
As an aside, the map shows the locations of four DF-31A brigades.
4. DF-5 | Federation of American Scientists
PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia (54th and 55th bases)
MULTIMEGATON WEAPONS | Johnston Archive
5. China May Have Deployed Missiles Not Far From Border With Russia | Sputnik News
6. Confirmed: China is Upgrading ICBMs With Multiple Warheads | The Diplomat
"Beijing has been retrofitting single-warhead ICBMs with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles.
For the past several months, China has been upgrading single-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), according to U.S. intelligence agencies, The Washington Times reports.
'China is re-engineering its long-range ballistic missiles to carry multiple nuclear warheads,' the head of U.S. Strategic Command Admiral Cecil D. Haney said in a January 22 speech."
----------
China puts on show of force with DF-31B mobile ICBM missile test | South China Morning Post
"The People's Liberation Army launched a Dongfeng-31B on September 25 from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Centre - also known as the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre - in Shanxi province, according to US-based online newspaper The Washington Free Beacon.
The DF-31B is an upgraded version of the DF-31A and the launch was at least the second time the PLA's Second Artillery Corps had tested a DF-31 missile in the past three months. In late July, the PLA conducted a flight test of a DF-31A in what was the fourth known flight test of that missile in two years.
...
'The DF-31A was designed to carry three warheads. I think the new DF-31B is possibly a multi-warhead version with higher accuracy,' Wong said."
7. China adds warheads to older DF-5s | The Washington Times
"China’s military has begun retrofitting single-warhead DF-5 intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles, according to U.S. defense officials. The upgrading of the DF-5 missiles with multiple warheads, known as MIRVs, was detected by U.S. intelligence agencies within the past several months.
The addition of three warheads on the long-range missiles marks a significant shift for China’s nuclear arsenal that is increasing in both warheads and missile systems under a major buildup."
8. DF-41 | Deagel
"In July 2014 China officially confirmed the development of the DF-41 next generation ICBM with a range of 12,000 kilometers and 10 MIRVed warheads as a direct response to US missile defenses such as THAAD."
Daniel808
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Thank you very bery much for Calculation and Analysis brother @MartianStratfor's New Chinese ICBM Range Map
Stratfor has released an updated map of the ranges of Chinese ICBMs launched from northeastern Heilongjiang Province. I will discuss the ICBMs listed on Stratfor's map.
How Far China's Nuclear Capabilities Stretch | Stratfor
----------
China's DF-31 ICBM can only reach Alaska and Hawaii. "The United States currently fields 26 interceptors at Fort Greely in Alaska and four at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California."[1] We expect China to use the DF-31 ICBM to neutralize the anti-ballistic missile interceptor base at Fort Greely in Alaska.
China has two brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31 ICBM[2] located at:
1. Nanyang (813th Brigade)
2. Xining (Urban/Industrial Brigade or U/I Brigade)
China's DF-31A ICBM can reach every major American city except Miami, Florida.
China has seven brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31A ICBM[3] located at:
1. Delingha
2. Haiyan
3. Datong (809 Brigade)
4. Tainshui (812 Brigade)
5. Xixia
6. Shaoyang (805 Brigade)
7. Yuxi
China's DF-5A/B ICBM can reach all of the United States.
China has eight brigades of the liquid-fuel DF-5A/B ICBM[4] located at:
1. Luoning/Luoyang (804th brigade)
2. Wuzhai (Base 25)
3. Xuanhua
4. Tongdao (805th brigade)
5. Lushi (801st brigade)
6. Jingxian (803rd brigade)
7. Jingxian (814th brigade)
8. Hunan (818th brigade)
China's DF-41 ICBM can also reach all of the United States.
China probably has four brigades of the solid-fuel DF-41 ICBM[5] located at:
a. Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China
b. Xinyang City, Henan Province in central China
c. Xinjiang Province in northwestern China (deployment soon)
d. There appears to be a fourth DF-41 ICBM brigade on the Chinese Tibetan Plateau (see picture below) in Tibet Province, China.
The total number of thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs can be calculated.
DF-31: 2 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 24 DF-31 ICBMs
DF-31A: 7 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 84 DF-31A ICBMs
DF-5A/B: 8 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 96 DF-5A/B ICBMs
DF-41: 4 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 48 DF-41 ICBMs
The DF-31 can only carry a single warhead. Thus, there are 24 thermonuclear warheads carried on the DF-31 ICBMs.
We should assume all DF-31A ICBMs are being upgraded to the DF-31B 3-MIRV variant.[6] Each DF-31A/B can carry three MIRVs. 84 DF-31A/B ICBMs x 3 = 252 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-5A missiles are being upgraded to DF-5B 8-MIRV missiles.[7] 96 DF-5B x 8 MIRVs = 768 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRVs on each missile.[8] 48 DF-41 ICBMs x 10 MIRVs= 480 thermonuclear warheads.
The current total is 1,524 thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs (which does not include SLBMs).
I think the technical definition of a re-load for an ICBM in a silo is that another ICBM can be fired within 24 hours.
If you accept China has one re-load ICBM per TEL or Silo then you have to double China's total to 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
Does 3,048 land-based Chinese thermonuclear warheads seem like a lot? It is important to remember that China detonated its first 3.3-megaton thermonuclear bomb in 1967. That was 50 years ago. China's economy is huge and it had 50 years to build 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
References:
1. Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) - GlobalSecurity.org
2. PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia
3. China: New START-type report | Nuclear Forces
Map of known DF-5A and DF-5B ICBM silo locations
Looking at an old map of known DF-5A and DF-5B silo locations, we see three brigades. Two brigades are DF-5A five-megaton single-warhead ICBMs and one brigade is DF-5B 10-MIRVed ICBMs.
As an aside, the map shows the locations of four DF-31A brigades
"Beijing has been retrofitting single-warhead ICBMs with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles.
For the past several months, China has been upgrading single-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), according to U.S. intelligence agencies, The Washington Times reports.
'China is re-engineering its long-range ballistic missiles to carry multiple nuclear warheads,' the head of U.S. Strategic Command Admiral Cecil D. Haney said in a January 22 speech."
----------
China puts on show of force with DF-31B mobile ICBM missile test | South China Morning Post
"The People's Liberation Army launched a Dongfeng-31B on September 25 from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Centre - also known as the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre - in Shanxi province, according to US-based online newspaper The Washington Free Beacon.
The DF-31B is an upgraded version of the DF-31A and the launch was at least the second time the PLA's Second Artillery Corps had tested a DF-31 missile in the past three months. In late July, the PLA conducted a flight test of a DF-31A in what was the fourth known flight test of that missile in two years.
...
'The DF-31A was designed to carry three warheads. I think the new DF-31B is possibly a multi-warhead version with higher accuracy,' Wong said."
7. China adds warheads to older DF-5s | The Washington Times
"China’s military has begun retrofitting single-warhead DF-5 intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles, according to U.S. defense officials. The upgrading of the DF-5 missiles with multiple warheads, known as MIRVs, was detected by U.S. intelligence agencies within the past several months.
The addition of three warheads on the long-range missiles marks a significant shift for China’s nuclear arsenal that is increasing in both warheads and missile systems under a major buildup."
8. DF-41 | Deagel
"In July 2014 China officially confirmed the development of the DF-41 next generation ICBM with a range of 12,000 kilometers and 10 MIRVed warheads as a direct response to US missile defenses such as THAAD."
Happy Chinese new year, bro
ChineseTiger1986
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The DF-31 could probably neutralize it by carrying a HGV warhead.
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Martian2
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Can you re-load a Chinese DF-5B ICBM silo?
If it is a hot-launch then the Chinese DF-5B ICBM silo will be out of commission for about a month. The silo has to be cleaned and all of the melted components have to be replaced. During a nuclear war, this is not realistic.
However, a cold-launched DF-5B ICBM can be reloaded like a Peacekeeper ICBM.
(U) Peacekeeper (PK) Sustainment/Deactivation
"The Peacekeeper ICBM utilizes a 'cold launching' method which utilizes a gas generator to eject the missile from the missile silo to a height of 20 to 30 meters, at which point the first stage solid propellant motor ignites. This method reduces damage to the silo on launch, facilitating the refurbishment and reuse of the silo."
An alternative method is to mechanically push the ICBM out of the silo before igniting its engines. This will minimize the damage to the silo and permit a re-load.
In conclusion, a Chinese DF-5B ICBM silo can be reloaded if it is cold-launched or if it is mechanically pushed out of the silo before engine ignition.
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As an aside, the START TREATY defined "rapid reload."
START TREATY ANNEX TERMS AND THEIR DEFINITIONS
"87. (98) The term 'rapid reload' means reloading a silo launcher of ICBMs in less than 12 hours or a mobile launcher of ICBMs in less than four hours after a missile has been launched or removed from such a launcher."
If it is a hot-launch then the Chinese DF-5B ICBM silo will be out of commission for about a month. The silo has to be cleaned and all of the melted components have to be replaced. During a nuclear war, this is not realistic.
However, a cold-launched DF-5B ICBM can be reloaded like a Peacekeeper ICBM.
(U) Peacekeeper (PK) Sustainment/Deactivation
"The Peacekeeper ICBM utilizes a 'cold launching' method which utilizes a gas generator to eject the missile from the missile silo to a height of 20 to 30 meters, at which point the first stage solid propellant motor ignites. This method reduces damage to the silo on launch, facilitating the refurbishment and reuse of the silo."
An alternative method is to mechanically push the ICBM out of the silo before igniting its engines. This will minimize the damage to the silo and permit a re-load.
In conclusion, a Chinese DF-5B ICBM silo can be reloaded if it is cold-launched or if it is mechanically pushed out of the silo before engine ignition.
----------
As an aside, the START TREATY defined "rapid reload."
START TREATY ANNEX TERMS AND THEIR DEFINITIONS
"87. (98) The term 'rapid reload' means reloading a silo launcher of ICBMs in less than 12 hours or a mobile launcher of ICBMs in less than four hours after a missile has been launched or removed from such a launcher."
Martian2
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Update on China's DF-31A, DF-5B, and DF-41 ICBMs | Popular Science
I think "three to five 150 kiloton MIRV warheads" on the DF-31A sounds reasonable. Seismic data have proven that China possesses the most advanced W88-equivalent thermonuclear warhead design. "[In] 1995, when American experts analyzing Chinese nuclear test results found similarities to America's most advanced miniature warhead, the W-88."
I think there are four reasons to believe China's DF-5B ICBM carries 8 MIRVs. Firstly, China wants to penetrate the US anti-ballistic missile shield. 8 MIRVs are much harder to intercept than only 3 MIRVs.
Secondly, Richard Fisher showed a diagram in 1999 of 8 MIRVs within a DF-5 ICBM with data from both the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology and the Beijing Institute of Aerodynamics.
Thirdly, the diameter of the DF-5B is a huge 11 feet. There is plenty of room to fit in 8 separate warheads.
Fourthly, let's benchmark China's DF-5B against the Russian SS-18 Satan ICBM. The DF-5B has a larger diameter at 11 feet vs the SS-18's 10-foot diameter. Both the DF-5B and the Russian SS-18 have the same length at 106 feet. The Russian SS-18 was "deployed with 10 warheads and up to 40 penetration aids and the missile's high throw-weight made it theoretically capable of carrying more warheads or penetration aids." Thus, there is every reason to believe China's DF-5B ICBM can carry at least 10 thermonuclear warheads.
I think Popular Science is right that China's DF-41 ICBM is armed with 12 MIRV thermonuclear warheads. It is consistent with the report in China's Global Times of a maxiumum of 12 MIRVs on each DF-41 ICBM.
Dongfeng-41 will bring China more respect | Global Times
During the last 46 years (after China launched the DF-5 ICBM in 1971), China has made vast improvements in carbon-composite technology, improved semiconductors and electronics, and new rocket fuel with higher energy density and specific impulse. Thus, it is reasonable that China's most advanced DF-41 ICBM can carry 12 MIRVs. The DF-41 should be the lightest (per volume) and most powerful of China's ICBMs. It should have the highest throw-weight to carry 12 MIRVs.
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THE NUCLEAR ARSENALS OF CHINA AND THE U.S.: PLANS FOR A FUTURE ARMAGEDDON | Popular Science
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In the illustration below (from Richard Fisher in 1999), we can see that China had the ability to launch MIRVed warheads after it had successfully put multiple Iridium satellites into orbit. It is now 2017 and China had 18 years to improve its MIRV dispenser.
China Increases Its Missile Forces While Opposing U.S. Missile Defense | Heritage
Popular Science states: "The three-stage DF-31A, with an estimated range of over 6,835 miles, has a payload of three to five 150 kiloton MIRV warheads, making it powerful enough to strike most of the continental USA from Chinese territory."
I think "three to five 150 kiloton MIRV warheads" on the DF-31A sounds reasonable. Seismic data have proven that China possesses the most advanced W88-equivalent thermonuclear warhead design. "[In] 1995, when American experts analyzing Chinese nuclear test results found similarities to America's most advanced miniature warhead, the W-88."
Popular Science states: "DF-5, which has a range of over 7,450 miles and the capacity to carry 3.2 tons—as either be a 5 megaton 'city buster' hydrogen bomb, or, more recently, 3 to 8 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) nuclear warheads, that can each individually strike a different target."
I think there are four reasons to believe China's DF-5B ICBM carries 8 MIRVs. Firstly, China wants to penetrate the US anti-ballistic missile shield. 8 MIRVs are much harder to intercept than only 3 MIRVs.
Secondly, Richard Fisher showed a diagram in 1999 of 8 MIRVs within a DF-5 ICBM with data from both the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology and the Beijing Institute of Aerodynamics.
Thirdly, the diameter of the DF-5B is a huge 11 feet. There is plenty of room to fit in 8 separate warheads.
Fourthly, let's benchmark China's DF-5B against the Russian SS-18 Satan ICBM. The DF-5B has a larger diameter at 11 feet vs the SS-18's 10-foot diameter. Both the DF-5B and the Russian SS-18 have the same length at 106 feet. The Russian SS-18 was "deployed with 10 warheads and up to 40 penetration aids and the missile's high throw-weight made it theoretically capable of carrying more warheads or penetration aids." Thus, there is every reason to believe China's DF-5B ICBM can carry at least 10 thermonuclear warheads.
Popular Science states: "The 9,320-mile-range DF-41 ICBM is one of the world's most lethal missiles. Weighing about 80 tons, it is carried and launched by a 12X12 all-terrain truck, and can also be launched from rail. Its payload of 12 MIRV nuclear warheads can be augmented with decoys and jammers to confuse enemy sensors, letting the actual warheads slip past missile defenses."
I think Popular Science is right that China's DF-41 ICBM is armed with 12 MIRV thermonuclear warheads. It is consistent with the report in China's Global Times of a maxiumum of 12 MIRVs on each DF-41 ICBM.
Dongfeng-41 will bring China more respect | Global Times
"According to reports, the Dongfeng-41 is a nuclear solid-fuel road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile. With a range of 14,000 kilometers and a payload of 10-12 nuclear warheads, it can target anywhere in the world and is widely considered one of the most advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles."
During the last 46 years (after China launched the DF-5 ICBM in 1971), China has made vast improvements in carbon-composite technology, improved semiconductors and electronics, and new rocket fuel with higher energy density and specific impulse. Thus, it is reasonable that China's most advanced DF-41 ICBM can carry 12 MIRVs. The DF-41 should be the lightest (per volume) and most powerful of China's ICBMs. It should have the highest throw-weight to carry 12 MIRVs.
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THE NUCLEAR ARSENALS OF CHINA AND THE U.S.: PLANS FOR A FUTURE ARMAGEDDON | Popular Science
----------
In the illustration below (from Richard Fisher in 1999), we can see that China had the ability to launch MIRVed warheads after it had successfully put multiple Iridium satellites into orbit. It is now 2017 and China had 18 years to improve its MIRV dispenser.
China Increases Its Missile Forces While Opposing U.S. Missile Defense | Heritage
Martian2
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China Tests [DF-5C ICBM] Missile With 10 Warheads | The Washington Free Beacon
In the previous post, I said: "Fourthly, let's benchmark China's DF-5B against the Russian SS-18 Satan ICBM. The DF-5B has a larger diameter at 11 feet vs the SS-18's 10-foot diameter. Both the DF-5B and the Russian SS-18 have the same length at 106 feet. The Russian SS-18 was 'deployed with 10 warheads and up to 40 penetration aids and the missile's high throw-weight made it theoretically capable of carrying more warheads or penetration aids.' Thus, there is every reason to believe China's DF-5B ICBM can carry at least 10 thermonuclear warheads."
My insight was right on target. The Washington Free Beacon just reported a test of China's DF-5C ICBM with 10 MIRVs (see article below).
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China Tests Missile With 10 Warheads | The Washington Free Beacon
"China flight tested a new variant of a long-range missile with 10 warheads in what defense officials say represents a dramatic shift in Beijing's strategic nuclear posture.
The flight test of the DF-5C missile was carried out earlier this month using 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs. The test of the inert warheads was monitored closely by U.S. intelligence agencies, said two officials familiar with reports of the missile test.
The missile was fired from the Taiyuan Space Launch Center in central China and flew to an impact range in the western Chinese desert.
...
The test of a missile with 10 warheads is significant because it indicates the secretive Chinese military is increasing the number of warheads in its arsenal."
In the previous post, I said: "Fourthly, let's benchmark China's DF-5B against the Russian SS-18 Satan ICBM. The DF-5B has a larger diameter at 11 feet vs the SS-18's 10-foot diameter. Both the DF-5B and the Russian SS-18 have the same length at 106 feet. The Russian SS-18 was 'deployed with 10 warheads and up to 40 penetration aids and the missile's high throw-weight made it theoretically capable of carrying more warheads or penetration aids.' Thus, there is every reason to believe China's DF-5B ICBM can carry at least 10 thermonuclear warheads."
My insight was right on target. The Washington Free Beacon just reported a test of China's DF-5C ICBM with 10 MIRVs (see article below).
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China Tests Missile With 10 Warheads | The Washington Free Beacon
"China flight tested a new variant of a long-range missile with 10 warheads in what defense officials say represents a dramatic shift in Beijing's strategic nuclear posture.
The flight test of the DF-5C missile was carried out earlier this month using 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs. The test of the inert warheads was monitored closely by U.S. intelligence agencies, said two officials familiar with reports of the missile test.
The missile was fired from the Taiyuan Space Launch Center in central China and flew to an impact range in the western Chinese desert.
...
The test of a missile with 10 warheads is significant because it indicates the secretive Chinese military is increasing the number of warheads in its arsenal."
Shotgunner51
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Good news indeed. DF-5A used to carry a single 5 megaton warhead, now MIRVed with 10-12 warheads (and/or penetration aids) can greatly increase effectiveness of DF-5 series, making it valuable asset in PLARF inventory. With the continual deployment of upgraded DF-5 series, I think PLA should abandon or at least modify the outdated NFU doctrine.
- Land/rail-mobile DF-31/41 series, sea-based JL-2/3, these can be used in second strikes. But liquid-fueled silo-launched DF-5 series doesn't quite fit the purpose, its long preparation time only makes it a first strike option.
- It's economically sustainable to maintain a sizable stock of DF-5 (or LM-2), since it can be used as satellite launch vehicle.
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