China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence

[Shotgunner51]

Update on China's DF-31A, DF-5B, and DF-41 ICBMs | Popular Science

The infographic below shows the range of different Chinese missile platforms, you have mentioned those ICBM targeting US including DF-31A, DF-41 and DF-5. Also there is SLBM JL-2. China should modify NFU doctrine, maintain a sizable stock of DF-5 (when used as SLV then it is LM-2) and use it in preemptive strike when security situation deems necessary.

Shorter range ICBM should be used for western Europe, that's DF-31.

IRBM like DF-21, DF-26 and a range of cruise missiles can cover US bases in Asia Pacific, South Asia and Middle East.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-missiles-range-chart-2017-1

 

[Martian2]

China has nine brigades of DF-5B ICBMs.

Stratfor says there are Chinese DF-5A/B ICBMs located in China's northeastern Heilongjiang province. I will assume the minimum of only one brigade. There could be two DF-5A/B ICBM brigades in Heilongjiang province. For example, the Chinese ICBM missile bases at Anhui, Henan, and Hunan have two brigades of DF-5B ICBMs in each province.

China's DF-5A/B ICBM can reach all of the United States.

China has nine brigades of the liquid-fuel DF-5A/B ICBM[4] located at:

1. Luoning/Luoyang (804th brigade), Henan province
2. Wuzhai (Base 25), Shanxi province
3. Xuanhua, Hebei province
4. Tongdao (805th brigade), Hunan province
5. Lushi (801st brigade), Henan province
6. Jingxian (803rd brigade), Anhui province
7. Jingxian (814th brigade), Anhui province
8. Hunan (818th brigade), Hunan province
9. Heilongjiang province (see Stratfor citation below)

9 DF-5B brigades x 12 ICBMs per brigade x 8 MIRVs per DF-5B ICBM = 846 thermonuclear warheads

Over the next few years, China will most likely upgrade all DF-5B ICBMs to DF-5C ICBMs. The reason is the greater probability of penetrating anti-ballistic missile defenses.

9 DF-5C brigades x 12 ICBMs per brigade x 10 MIRVs per DF-5C ICBM = 1,080 thermonuclear warheads
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How Far China's Nuclear Capabilities Stretch | Stratfor

"...Heilongjiang province is the ideal location to maximize the missile's reach so it covers all of the continental United States. The Dongfeng-5 missiles have long been based in the same region for the same reasons."

 

[Martian2]

China and US have equal uranium reserves | World Atlas

According to the World Atlas, China and the US each have about 200,000 metric tons of uranium reserves.

This means China has the uranium resources to build a thermonuclear arsenal equivalent to the United States. If the US builds thousands of new thermonuclear warheads, China has the raw material to match the US in thermonuclear capability.

If China decides to reclaim Outer Mongolia, it will add another 140,000 metric tons of uranium reserves to the Chinese arsenal.

Outer Mongolia's uranium will enable China to build a larger thermonuclear arsenal than the United States.

China and Outer Mongolia: 340,600 metric tons of uranium reserves
United States: 207,400 metric tons of uranium reserves
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The 16 Biggest Uranium Reserves In The World | World Atlas

 

[Shotgunner51]

China and US have equal uranium reserves | World Atlas

According to the World Atlas, China and the US each have about 200,000 metric tons of uranium reserves.

This means China has the uranium resources to build a thermonuclear arsenal equivalent to the United States. If the US builds thousands of new thermonuclear warheads, China has the raw material to match the US in thermonuclear capability.

If China decides to reclaim Outer Mongolia, it will add another 140,000 metric tons of uranium reserves to the Chinese arsenal.

Outer Mongolia's uranium will enable China to build a larger thermonuclear arsenal than the United States.

China and Outer Mongolia: 340,600 metric tons of uranium reserves
United States: 207,400 metric tons of uranium reserves
----------

The 16 Biggest Uranium Reserves In The World | World Atlas

Good info. Despite having sizable natural reserves at home, China instead actively develops mines in Kazakhstan, Niger, Namibia.

Kazakhstan is the top source, see below chart. China General Nuclear Corp (CGN) and Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom has begun cooperation since 2006 on uranium development and trade and nuclear fuel fabrication was initiated in 2006. The two have a uranium mining joint venture, a nuclear fuel plant. CGN also imports nuclear fuel pellets and uranium from Kazatomprom.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-Kazakhstan-and-China-further-cooperation-30111601.html

Niger is the earliest production base for China Nuclear International Uranium Corporation (Sino-U), which began operation at Azelik in 2010. Azelik has reported resources of 13,000 tU at 0.2%, owned by Societe des Mines d'Azelik SA (SOMINA), a joint venture established in 2007 in which the government of Niger has a 33% interest and Sino-U holds 37.2%. The remainder of the SOMINA is owned by Chinese investment management company ZXJOY Invest, and China-based private mining and investment firm Trendfield Holdings.

Other than greenfield investments in Kazakhstan, Niger and Namibia, China sovereign funds like CIC has been investing in mine firms in Australia and Canada.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

China and US have equal uranium reserves | World Atlas

According to the World Atlas, China and the US each have about 200,000 metric tons of uranium reserves.

This means China has the uranium resources to build a thermonuclear arsenal equivalent to the United States. If the US builds thousands of new thermonuclear warheads, China has the raw material to match the US in thermonuclear capability.

If China decides to reclaim Outer Mongolia, it will add another 140,000 metric tons of uranium reserves to the Chinese arsenal.

Outer Mongolia's uranium will enable China to build a larger thermonuclear arsenal than the United States.

China and Outer Mongolia: 340,600 metric tons of uranium reserves
United States: 207,400 metric tons of uranium reserves
----------

The 16 Biggest Uranium Reserves In The World | World Atlas

China has the most advanced nuclear warheads, this is what matters the most.

Also, China's Plutonium reserve is even much bigger.

 

[Penguin]

China has the most advanced nuclear warheads, this is what matters the most.

Really?

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

China should expand Nuclear Arsenal to 4000-5000! 250 is a joke!!!

 

[Farbeyonddriven]

I wonder how efficiently can the Thaad deployed in South Korea now handle DF-41.

And surely CCP's nuclear prowess is not as hyperbolic as it hypes,otherwise it wouldn't have overreacted like bitch to South Korea minutes after Lotte provided venue to the deployment of thaad.

 

[samsara]

Reallyu?

And do you REALLY believe in above figures after all the expositions by @Martian2 (and he's a very cool head, far from emotionally-driven) and others in this dedicated thread?

WHY do you think that China need to report its actual stock to "ICAN" or any other institution?

Unlike the couple of newbies seen here, as a long-time member of PDF at analyst level you may wish to try to dissect the incentive and disincentive factors from China's point of views about divulging the true (larger) numbers of its nuke head stockpiles, the pluses-minuses consideration.... from military, geopolitics and strategic positions.

And what do you see as possible factors that prevent China from producing more nuke heads as necessary? Funding & cost, technology, raw materials, production capacity, storage limitation (geographic constraint)? Or any other things?

Hint: just think of China's other "strategic stuffs" like its gold and strategic petroleum reserves

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

China is the first country to equip with the non-ballistic gliding nuclear warheads, the test with the DF-5C from January 2017 just proved that.

This is the fact, maybe the Yankee cheerleaders prefer to stick with the alternative fact instead.

 

[Akasa]

China is the first country to equip with the non-ballistic gliding nuclear warheads, the test with the DF-5C from January 2017 just proved that.

This is the fact, maybe the Yankee cheerleaders prefer to stick with the alternative fact instead.

Speaking of "alternative facts"...

1. There is no evidence that the DF-5C test involved HGVs
2. There is no evidence that the WU-14 is "non-ballistic" or has entered service

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Speaking of "alternative facts"...

1. There is no evidence that the DF-5C test involved HGVs
2. There is no evidence that the WU-14 is "non-ballistic" or has entered service

An Indian troll who pretends to be a Chinese poster is already a propagandist of the alternative fact.

 

[Akasa]

China has the most advanced nuclear warheads, this is what matters the most.

Also, China's Plutonium reserve is even much bigger.

A marker of nuclear warhead advancement is the yield-to-mass ratio. So far, the Chinese have not demonstrated the capability to design a warhead anywhere close to the efficiency of the W88, or even the preceding W78 warhead for that matter.

An Indian troll who pretends to be a Chinese poster is already a propagandist of the alternative fact.

Can I safely assume that you have no evidence to back up your claims at this point?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

A marker of nuclear warhead advancement is the yield-to-mass ratio. So far, the Chinese have not demonstrated the capability to design a warhead anywhere close to the efficiency of the W88, or even the preceding W78 warhead for that matter.



Can I safely assume that you have no evidence to back up your claims at this point?

Come from someone with a fake ID, it is alternative fact.

 

[Akasa]

I also tend to believe the NTI/ICNND (see ICNND 2009 Report) estimated number of warheads is conservative given China does not disclose information, but based on this, NTI/ICNND further estimate the total destructive power at 294 megatons, citing China warheads are almost entirely made up of high yield strategic warheads, minimum 200kt, largest 3.3 megaton thermonuclear, primarily projected by ballistic missiles. Unlike US or Russia, NTI/ICNND cites that China does not posses large quantity of small warheads (minimum sub-kt level, tactical warheads) that can be projected by other means say air or ground artillery.

View attachment 381399

source: icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/pdf/ICNND_Report-EliminatingNuclearThreats.pdf

A high-yield, low-warhead arsenal could also imply that the accuracy of Chinese ICBMs wasn't exactly all that impressive, at least at the time of this publication's release.