China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence

[feilong]

Guys
There is evidence that China has another secret 3000 miles tunnel. First tunnels were 3000 nukes, what about this second tunnels. Can anyone guess how many nukes China hiding.

 

[Martian2]

China has two million tonnes of Uranium

China only needs 25kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and 4kg of plutonium for a modern thermonuclear warhead. (See China's Nuclear Strike Force - Page 21)
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China claims to hold over 2 million tonnes of uranium deposits | MINING.com

[Note: Thank you to UnnamedSweeperMonk for the newslink.]

 

[Martian2]

China's W-88 warhead was most likely independent convergent engineering

There are two ways to develop a W-88 thermonuclear warhead.

1. You can research and develop it yourself. This is within China's capability, because it had decades of experience in miniaturization. Also, China had access to supercomputers that would allow for simulated testing of a wide variety of designs.

2. Or you can steal the design through spying. However, this is extremely unlikely. After the Rosenbergs, the US had instituted very rigorous methods to ensure security. The claim that important American classified military technology can be stolen defies credulity.

In 1999, The New York Times reported that seismic tests proved China had a W-88 thermonuclear warhead. The question is whether you believe it is method #1 or #2 (listed above). I think China developed the W-88 thermonuclear warhead design through decades of hard work.

Here's my reasoning. There are plenty of countries in the world that would love to obtain the W-88 warhead design. Why haven't they acquired it through spying? Since no other country has a comparable W-88 warhead design, it must mean that China developed theirs independently.
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BREACH AT LOS ALAMOS - A special report. - China Stole Nuclear Secrets For Bombs, U.S. Aides Say - NYTimes.com

"The evidence that so alarmed him had surfaced a year earlier. Senior nuclear weapons experts at Los Alamos poring over data from the most recent Chinese underground nuclear tests had detected eerie similarities between the latest Chinese and American bomb designs.

From what they could tell, Beijing was testing a smaller and more lethal nuclear device configured remarkably like the W-88, the most modern, minaturized warhead in the American arsenal. In April 1995 they brought their findings to Mr. Trulock. Los Alamos scientists have access to a wide range of classified intelligence data and seismic and other measurements."

 

[Shotgunner51]

China has two million tonnes of Uranium

China only needs 25kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and 4kg of plutonium for a modern thermonuclear warhead. (See China's Nuclear Strike Force - Page 21)
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China claims to hold over 2 million tonnes of uranium deposits | MINING.com

[Note: Thank you to UnnamedSweeperMonk for the newslink.]

Kazakhstan is one important pivot in China's geopolitical game plan, the two countries have very close working relationship on uranium.

Kazakhstan to export uranium to U.S., Canada via China

 

[Martian2]

Sixth flight of China's DF-ZF thermonuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV)

Remember the picture of the AMaRV (ie. Advanced Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle) that I posted previously? A Chinese DF-41 ICBM can carry 10 AMaRVs. AMaRVs can flatten out its trajectory to evade missile defense. However, an AMaRV is limited by the general ballistic flight path of an ICBM. In other words, if a defensive tactical thermonuclear warhead reaches the AMaRV before the fins are deployed then it can be stopped. Thus, an AMaRV is limited by a small radius.

The earlier that an AMaRV's steering fins are deployed, the sooner it starts slowing down due to friction. This means an AMaRV will not deploy its steering fins until the last minute.

A Chinese DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) is like an AMaRV on steroids. A DF-ZF can maintain hypersonic speeds (somewhere between Mach 5 to Mach 10) for thousands of miles. This means a thermonuclear-armed Chinese DF-ZF is unstoppable. The defender is helpless as a barrage of DF-ZF HGVs glide hypersonically to their targets.

A DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle cannot be stopped by a laser. There are two reasons. Firstly, a laser has a limited range of a few miles in the dense lower atmosphere. The energy is bled away when the air molecules are lased and starts rising. Cooler air molecules take their place and keeps bleeding away the energy.

Secondly, a DF-ZF HGV travels hypersonically. This means it has a glowing plasma sheath. The plasma sheath is comprised of ionized particles that will keep dispersing a laser due to chaotic refraction caused by differing density (which continuously fluctuates due to temperature variation and air flow throughout the plasma sheath and layer density variations dependent on the distance from the surface of the warhead). Also, the gas atoms (such as oxygen, nitrogen, and others) will disperse the laser light energy in different directions. This makes it impossible to focus the laser light energy on one spot to burn through the warhead.

On an unrelated matter, Chinese scientists recently theorized that it is possible to communicate through a plasma sheath by using the plasma sheath as part of the antenna circuit. It's a very clever idea. In the past, everyone has been trying to brute force it and punch through the plasma sheath. Instead, the Chinese scientists decided to co-opt the plasma sheath for communication. This is a new idea that no one had thought of before.
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China Again Tests Nuclear Hypersonic Missile - Washington Free Beacon

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A matching approach to communicate through the plasma sheath surrounding a hypersonic vehicle

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Scientists look at communicating with hypersonic vehicles using plasma resonance

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Have you heard of AMaRV? It can perform a hairpin turn (see photo below). The US tested three AMaRVs around 1980. It is logical to expect China to develop its own AMaRVs.

Source: http://www.paforge.com/files/articles/ballisticmissiles_techistory.pdf (p. 4)

"Flight test of the Advanced Maneuvering Reentry Vehicle in early 1980. The path of the reentry vehicle is the upper streak of light, with the booster tanks immediately below. Lights from the Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific can be seen in the lower right corner. (U.S. Air Force)"

 

[Shotgunner51]

Sixth flight of China's DF-ZF thermonuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV)

Remember the picture of the AMaRV (ie. Advanced Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle) that I posted previously? A Chinese DF-41 ICBM can carry 10 AMaRVs. AMaRVs can flatten out its trajectory to evade missile defense. However, an AMaRV is limited by the general ballistic flight path of an ICBM. In other words, if a defensive tactical thermonuclear warhead reaches the AMaRV before the fins are deployed then it can be stopped. Thus, an AMaRV is limited by a small radius.

The earlier that an AMaRV's steering fins are deployed, the sooner it starts slowing down due to friction. This means an AMaRV will not deploy its steering fins until the last minute.

A Chinese DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) is like an AMaRV on steroids. A DF-ZF can maintain hypersonic speeds (somewhere between Mach 5 to Mach 10) for thousands of miles. This means a thermonuclear-armed Chinese DF-ZF is unstoppable. The defender is helpless as a barrage of DF-ZF HGVs glide hypersonically to their targets.

A DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle cannot be stopped by a laser. There are two reasons. Firstly, a laser has a limited range of a few miles in the dense lower atmosphere. The energy is bled away when the air molecules are lased and starts rising. Cooler air molecules take their place and keeps bleeding away the energy.

Secondly, a DF-ZF HGV travels hypersonically. This means it has a glowing plasma sheath. The plasma sheath is comprised of ionized particles that will keep dispersing a laser due to chaotic refraction caused by differing density (which continuously fluctuates due to temperature variation and air flow throughout the plasma sheath and layer density variations dependent on the distance from the surface of the warhead). Also, the gas atoms (such as oxygen, nitrogen, and others) will disperse the laser light energy in different directions. This makes it impossible to focus the laser light energy on one spot to burn through the warhead.

On an unrelated matter, Chinese scientists recently theorized that it is possible to communicate through a plasma sheath by using the plasma sheath as part of the antenna circuit. It's a very clever idea. In the past, everyone has been trying to brute force it and punch through the plasma sheath. Instead, the Chinese scientists decided to co-opt the plasma sheath for communication. This is a new idea that no one had thought of before.
----------

China Again Tests Nuclear Hypersonic Missile - Washington Free Beacon

----------

A matching approach to communicate through the plasma sheath surrounding a hypersonic vehicle

----------

Scientists look at communicating with hypersonic vehicles using plasma resonance

----------

Have you heard of AMaRV? It can perform a hairpin turn (see photo below). The US tested three AMaRVs around 1980. It is logical to expect China to develop its own AMaRVs.

Source: http://www.paforge.com/files/articles/ballisticmissiles_techistory.pdf (p. 4)

"Flight test of the Advanced Maneuvering Reentry Vehicle in early 1980. The path of the reentry vehicle is the upper streak of light, with the booster tanks immediately below. Lights from the Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific can be seen in the lower right corner. (U.S. Air Force)"

Good progress, 6th test now, all successful except the 2nd (August 2014 if I remember correctly). How close you think we are from deployment of DF-ZF (or Wu-14 as called previously)? This is one critical solution to penetrate US missile defense.

 

[Martian2]

Good progress, 6th test now, all successful except the 2nd (August 2014 if I remember correctly). How close you think we are from deployment of DF-ZF (or Wu-14 as called previously)? This is one critical solution to penetrate US missile defense.

As a general rule of thumb, I would say five to ten successful tests are sufficient for deployment. The Chinese DF-ZF HGV (aka Wu-14) has had five successful flight tests.

Also, the Chinese DF-41 10-MIRV ICBM has had four successful flight tests. Since it's pretty close to five successful flight tests, some are predicting DF-41 ICBM deployment in 2015.

China Tests ICBM With Multiple Warheads
"A report made public earlier this month by a congressional China commission stated that the DF-41 will be able to carry up to 10 warheads and is expected to be deployed next year.

'The DF-41, which could be deployed as early as 2015, may carry up to 10 MIRVs, and have a maximum range as far as 7,456 miles, allowing it to target the entire continental United States,' the report said. 'In addition, some sources claim China has modified the DF–5 and the DF–31A to be able to carry MIRVs.'"
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TEN CONSECUTIVE SUCCESSFUL DF-5 ICBM TEST FLIGHTS

DF-5 Chronology | Encyclopedia Astronautica

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FIVE CONSECUTIVE SUCCESSFUL DF-31 ICBM TEST FLIGHTS

DF-31 Chronology | Encyclopedia Astronautica

 

[war&peace]

I wish Pakistan to be around 500-MT around 2020 and then we just focus on conventional capabilities.

 

[Martian2]

I wish Pakistan to be around 500-MT around 2020 and then we just focus on conventional capabilities.

Pakistan only has atomic (fission) warheads.

Pakistan's total tonnage is probably one to two megatons. About the same as India's.

 

[war&peace]

Pakistan only has atomic warheads.

Pakistan's total tonnage is probably one to two megatons. About the same as India's.

Since 1998, a lot has changed and no one knows. All of the info on net is just estimates. Pakistan does not provide much info and that is the best policy so far.

 

[Martian2]

Since 1998, a lot has changed and no one knows. All of the info on net is just estimates. Pakistan does not provide much info and that is the best policy so far.

No. Seismic tests do not lie. They are objective. The most powerful Indian nuclear test was about 20 kilotons. Similarly, Pakistani nuclear tests are in the kiloton range.

China's 1964 atomic test was 22 kilotons.

China's 1967 thermonuclear (fusion) test was 3.3 megatons. Seismographs can easily distinguish between a megaton fusion bomb versus a 0.02 megaton (or 20 kiloton) atomic bomb.

http://fas.org/nuke/guide/india/nuke/

 

[war&peace]

No. Seismic tests do not lie. They are objective. The most powerful Indian nuclear test was about 20 kilotons. Similarly, Pakistani nuclear tests are in the kiloton range.

China's 1964 atomic test was 22 kilotons.

China's 1967 thermonuclear (fusion) test was 3.3 megatons. Seismographs can easily distinguish between a megaton fusion bomb versus a 0.02 megaton (or 20 kiloton) atomic bomb.

http://fas.org/nuke/guide/india/nuke/

Did you even read my or understood my comment. If you need a pair of glasses, I can send you. I clearly said a lot has changed since 1998.

 

[Martian2]

Did you even read my or understood my comment. If you need a pair of glasses, I can send you. I clearly said a lot has changed since 1998.

Nothing has changed. All known Pakistani nuclear tests have been a few kilotons.

To date, the largest Indian atomic bomb is about 20 kilotons. The largest Pakistani atomic bomb is 12 kilotons.

Actually, the fact that almost 20 years have passed for Pakistan (since 1998) and 40 years for India (since 1974) is a strong indicator that neither the Indian nor Pakistani atomic weapons are indigenous.

All five thermonuclear powers transitioned from atomic to thermonuclear weapons in about five years. If a country actually understood the principles of nuclear weapons, it is simple to graduate from atomic to thermonuclear weapons. China did it in three years (1964 for atomic and 1967 for thermonuclear bomb).

http://fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/nuke/

 

[Shotgunner51]

Since 1998, a lot has changed and no one knows. All of the info on net is just estimates. Pakistan does not provide much info and that is the best policy so far.

Bro the links that @Martian2 has provided are good reads. As a quick summary, thermonuclear weapons are megaton-grade, that's exponentially more powerful than fission (i.e. atomic) weapons which are kiloton grade. Five nations have successfully tested: US (1952), USSR (1954), Britain (1957), China (1967), France (1968). As per 1958 US-UK Mutual Defence Agreement, Britain was given access to the design of the American Mk 28 warhead and were able to manufacture copies hence ceased indigenous program. Other four nations have pursued their respective thermonuclear programs till nowadays.

Since 1998 Pakistan has successfully built an inventory of fission (mostly HEU-based, could have some Pu-based) warheads, securing a balance with India which has similar level of stockpile.

Remember back in 1998, Pakistan made successful fission weapon tests just within 2 weeks after India did the same? I am confident that Pakistan can at least maintain this "2 week" gap with India, or even do better, keep up the good work bros!

 

[war&peace]

Bro the links that @Martian2 has provided are good reads. As a quick summary, thermonuclear weapons are megaton-grade, that's exponentially more powerful than fission (i.e. atomic) weapons which are kiloton grade. Five nations have successfully tested: US (1952), USSR (1954), Britain (1957), China(1967), France (1968). As per 1958 US-UK Mutual Defence Agreement, Britain was given access to the design of the American Mk 28 warhead and were able to manufacture copies hence ceased indigenous program. Other four nations have pursued their respective thermonuclear programs till nowadays.

Since 1998 Pakistan has successfully built an inventory of fission (HEU-based) warheads, securing a balance with India which has similar level of stockpile. Sure I believe Pakistan must have made further progress by now, no doubt on that, keep up the good work bros!

I very well know the difference between fission, fusion and boosted devices and also the nuclear reactions in fission and fusion and even the Carbon cycle in the bigger stars.
What he is unable to understand is that after 1998 a lot of progress has taken place but he is really not capable of understanding that basic info, I think he is suffering from severe iodine deficiency, and thinks tests are conducted before the devices are made. Pakistan has not conducted the nuclear tests since 1998 due to political reasons but that does not mean the capability is not there. Before 1998, Pakistan had the fission device and we just tested at the right time. And now Pakistan does not feel so much need to test the thermonukes because of the validation of our fission device in 1998, cold test and computer simulations. Perhaps you know that a fission device is needed to initiate the fusion process of hydrogen into helium and lithium atoms.