China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence

[bolo]

nuke carries radiations which contaminate everything for a long time

But that cannot be even compard to the after impact of the asteroid that hit the earth.

 

[Martian2]

My tally of 96 Chinese DF-5A/B ICBMs matches earlier American intelligence estimate

My current tally of 96 Chinese DF-5A/B ICBMs (which is the equivalent of 8 brigades) was predicted by an earlier American intelligence estimate.

----------

WORLD NUCLEAR ARSENALS - CENTRE FOR DEFENSE INFORMATION

 

[Martian2]

Chinese ICBMs and SLBMs are thoroughly tested and reliable

In the mainstream western press, you constantly read that Chinese ICBMs and SLBMs are beset by troubled development. Is this claim true?

An examination of the test records of Chinese ICBMs and SLBMs shows a history of SUCCESSFUL test flights. A successful test flight is easy to determine, because the missile will reach an apogee of 1,000km (or 600 miles).

----------

TEN CONSECUTIVE SUCCESSFUL DF-5 ICBM TEST FLIGHTS

DF-5 Chronology | Encyclopedia Astronautica

----------

FIVE CONSECUTIVE SUCCESSFUL DF-31 ICBM TEST FLIGHTS

DF-31 Chronology | Encyclopedia Astronautica

----------

TWO CONSECUTIVE SUCCESSFUL JL-2 SLBM TEST FLIGHTS

JL-2 Chronology | Encyclopedia Astronautica

 

[shuttler]

But that cannot be even compard to the after impact of the asteroid that hit the earth.

nah
I have not heard the last meteor impact in Russia has caused any aftermath evacuation of people living in the vicinity
The nuke leaks in Chernobyl and now japan are rendering the areas uninhabitable even they have sealed the plant in Chernobyl or having the plant in japan cooled down
Nukes are more devastating and having a long lastingly detrimental effect to the people and environment unless the incoming meteors are composed of radio active materials

The meteor that hit Russia is very powerful but after the impact is gone the livelihood is restored. No cancer causing illnesses sufferiing for the inhabitants after impact

"approximately 500 kilotons of TNT(about 1.8 PJ), 20–30 times more energy than was released from the atomic bomb detonated at Hiroshima."

The meteor hit Russia on 15 February 2013 and the no of casualties is

"The blast caused by the meteor's air burst caused a considerable number of injuries. Russian authorities stated that 1,491 people, including 311 children, sought medical attention in Chelyabinsk Oblast within the first few days. Health officials said 112 people had been hospitalised, with two in serious condition. A 52-year-old woman with a broken spine was flown to Moscow for treatment. Most people were hurt by shattered, falling or blown-in glass The intense light from the meteor, momentarily 30 times brighter than the Sun, led to over 180 cases of eye pain, and 70 people subsequently reported temporary flash blindness.Twenty people reported ultraviolet burns similar to sunburn, possibly intensified by the presence of snow on the ground."

Source for the above: Chelyabinsk meteor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

By comparison the casualties of the nuke bomb "little boy" which was dropped in Hiroshima were like this

"According to figures published in 1945, 66,000 people were killed as a direct result of the Hiroshima blast, and 69,000 were injured to varying degrees."

"a 1985 report concluded that the yield was 15 kilotons ± 20%."

" Radiation:

Local fallout is dust and ash from a bomb crater, contaminated with radioactive fission products. It falls to earth downwind of the crater and can produce, with radiation alone, a lethal area much larger than that from blast and fire. With an air burst, the fission products rise into the stratosphere, where they dissipate and become part of the global environment. Because Little Boy was an air burst 580 metres (1,900 ft) above the ground, there was no bomb crater and no local radioactive fallout.

However, a burst of intense neutron and gamma radiation came directly from the fireball. Its lethal radius was 1.3 kilometres (0.8 mi), covering about half of the firestorm area. An estimated 30% of immediate fatalities were people who received lethal doses of this direct radiation, but died in the firestorm before their radiation injuries would have become apparent. Over 6,000 people survived the blast and fire, but died of radiation injuries. Among injured survivors, 30% had radiation injuries from which they recovered, but with a lifelong increase in cancer risk. "

Source: Little Boy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[bolo]

nah
I have not heard the last meteor impact in Russia has caused any aftermath evacuation of people living in the vicinity
The nuke leaks in Chernobyl and now japan are rendering the areas uninhabitable even they have sealed the plant in Chernobyl or having the plant in japan cooled down
Nukes are more devastating and having a long lastingly detrimental effect to the people and environment unless the incoming meteors are composed of radio active materials

The meteor that hit Russia is very powerful but after the impact is gone the livelihood is restored. No cancer causing illnesses sufferiing for the inhabitants after impact

"approximately 500 kilotons of TNT(about 1.8 PJ), 20–30 times more energy than was released from the atomic bomb detonated at Hiroshima."

The meteor hit Russia on 15 February 2013 and the no of casualties is

"The blast caused by the meteor's air burst caused a considerable number of injuries. Russian authorities stated that 1,491 people, including 311 children, sought medical attention in Chelyabinsk Oblast within the first few days. Health officials said 112 people had been hospitalised, with two in serious condition. A 52-year-old woman with a broken spine was flown to Moscow for treatment. Most people were hurt by shattered, falling or blown-in glass The intense light from the meteor, momentarily 30 times brighter than the Sun, led to over 180 cases of eye pain, and 70 people subsequently reported temporary flash blindness.Twenty people reported ultraviolet burns similar to sunburn, possibly intensified by the presence of snow on the ground."

Source for the above: Chelyabinsk meteor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

By comparison the casualties of the nuke bomb "little boy" which was dropped in Hiroshima were like this

"According to figures published in 1945, 66,000 people were killed as a direct result of the Hiroshima blast, and 69,000 were injured to varying degrees."

"a 1985 report concluded that the yield was 15 kilotons ± 20%."

" Radiation:

Local fallout is dust and ash from a bomb crater, contaminated with radioactive fission products. It falls to earth downwind of the crater and can produce, with radiation alone, a lethal area much larger than that from blast and fire. With an air burst, the fission products rise into the stratosphere, where they dissipate and become part of the global environment. Because Little Boy was an air burst 580 metres (1,900 ft) above the ground, there was no bomb crater and no local radioactive fallout.

However, a burst of intense neutron and gamma radiation came directly from the fireball. Its lethal radius was 1.3 kilometres (0.8 mi), covering about half of the firestorm area. An estimated 30% of immediate fatalities were people who received lethal doses of this direct radiation, but died in the firestorm before their radiation injuries would have become apparent. Over 6,000 people survived the blast and fire, but died of radiation injuries. Among injured survivors, 30% had radiation injuries from which they recovered, but with a lifelong increase in cancer risk. "

Source: Little Boy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

no doubt the Russian one is not powerful compared to the one that hit the Yucatan Peninsula that killed the dinosaurs and wiped out over 75% of life on earth.

"a 1985 report concluded that the yield was 15 kilotons ± 20%."

That is the same size as one of the atomic bomb that dropped on H&N.

"The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs was the Chicxulub asteroid in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The Chicxulub Crater is approximately 180 km in diameter and 10 km deep.

Read more: http://www.universetoday.com/36697/the-asteroid-that-killed-the-dinosaurs/#ixzz2wALabkOT"

IN summary, man's most powerful weapons does not even come close to the power of mother nature.

 

[shuttler]

no doubt the Russian one is not powerful compared to the one that hit the Yucatan Peninsula that killed the dinosaurs and wiped out over 75% of life on earth.

"a 1985 report concluded that the yield was 15 kilotons ± 20%."

That is the same size as one of the atomic bomb that dropped on H&N.

"The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs was the Chicxulub asteroid in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The Chicxulub Crater is approximately 180 km in diameter and 10 km deep.

Read more: http://www.universetoday.com/36697/the-asteroid-that-killed-the-dinosaurs/#ixzz2wALabkOT"

IN summary, man's most powerful weapons does not even come close to the power of mother nature.

My point is radiation ( please see my original post then)
if you have equal kilotons of nuke to explode matching the same force of mothernature, probably we are still not living now suffering from the aftermath of radiation fallouts!

 

[Martian2]

Seven known Chinese DF-31A ICBM brigades

1. Delingha
2. Haiyan
3. Datong (809 Brigade)
4. Tainshui (812 Brigade)
5. Xixia
6. Shaoyang (805 Brigade)
7. Yuxi

7 DF-31A brigades x 12 ICBMs per brigade x 3 MIRVs per DF-31A ICBM = 252 thermonuclear warheads

In my next post, I will provide further citations and pictures to show the deployment of Chinese DF-31A brigades.

----------

China: New START-type report | Nuclear Forces

 

[Martian2]

Correcting Bill Gertz's error

Bill Gertz has made a rare error regarding China's thermonuclear weapons. I have brought it to his attention in the comment section.

----------

Inside the Ring: Pentagon goes hypersonic with long-range rapid attack weapon | The Washington Times

 

[Martian2]

Hans Kristensen is clearly wrong about DF-31A ICBMs at China's Kunming Valley

Hans Kristensen conducted a pixel analysis of two tunnel entrances at China's Kunming Valley. His conclusion was that the Chinese DF-31A ICBM mobile TEL would have difficulty entering the tunnel portals (see citation below) and he claimed the entire Kunming Valley complex was a munition depot. I will show that his conclusion is clearly wrong.

Hans Kristensen conducted a selective analysis. When you look at the upper end of Kunming Valley, you notice the existence of tunnel portals that are not located orthogonally to the road. These tunnel portals allow for easy ingress and egress of Chinese DF-31A ICBMs (see second citation below).

There is another major error in Hans Kristensen's reasoning. He failed to understand the road edge (with a width of 4.5 meters) represents the beginning of a tree canopy. Since I am not a Kunming tree expert, I will use a typical Chinese tree such as a willow tree. The average width of a willow tree canopy is about 11 to 14 meters. Divide by two and subtract one meter for the tree trunk and we have an additional clearance of five meters.

That is plenty of room for a DF-31A mobile TEL to enter the tunnel portals that Hans Kristensen claimed did not offer enough turn radius for the DF-31A ICBM mobile TEL.

----------

No, China Does Not Have 3,000 Nuclear Weapons | FAS Strategic Security Blog

"This image shows two of the so-called 'tunnel portals' identified by the Georgetown University report as being part of a DF-31 deployment site near Kunming. An image of a DF-31/DF-31A launcher is superimposed to illustrate the difficulty it would have turning at the site. The dimensions of the roads indicate that the facility is not for DF-31 launchers, but looks more like a munitions depot."

----------

Look at the tunnel entrances in the upper-right corner. There is plenty of room for a DF-31A mobile TEL to enter or leave the tunnels.

Les installations souterraines de la seconde artillerie

An expanded view of the upper-right part of the Kunming Valley shows the presence of tunnel entrances where a DF-31A ICBM mobile TEL can easily enter and leave.

----------

There is plenty of room for a DF-31A mobile TEL to turn into the tunnel. There is an extra five meters of ground beneath the tree canopy from the road edge.

Source: Silhouette of a weeping willow tree in a public park in Kunming, Yunnan Province, China. [Note: I substituted a different willow tree to avoid violating a copyright.]

Weeping Willow Tree Facts - Buzzle

"Mar 2, 2012 - A weeping willow tree or the Salix babylonica is the favorite of those who want to add a ... create a 'falling' canopy, they form excellent shade trees that are much in demand. ... Their height and width can be about 35 to 50 feet."

 

[Martian2]

PLA Second Artillery missile bases and brigades

China has at least six missile "bases" (e.g. 51st through 56th base). "Each base has numerous subordinate missile brigades."[1]

Spotlight on New Second Artillery ICBM Base Leadership | AsiaEye

"Each brigade is presumably equipped with 12 launchers (six launch battalions, two subordinate companies each, and with each company assigned one launcher)."[2]

Let's take a closer look at one of the missile bases (e.g. Missile Base 55).[3]

Spotlight on New Second Artillery ICBM Base Leadership | AsiaEye

From the chart, we see that the information is consistent with the other sources in my earlier posts. It is general knowledge that China's nuclear modernization is gathering speed. China watchers have expected the liquid-fueled DF-4A IRBMs to be replaced with newer solid-fueled DF-31A ICBMs.

Interestingly, with advancements in lightweight composites and higher impulse for rocket fuel, the DF-31A ICBM at 16 meters is much shorter than the DF-4A IRBM at 28 meters. The diameter is also smaller on the DF-31A ICBM with "2.0m (1st/2nd stages), 1.5m (3rd stage)" versus the DF-4A IRBM at 2.25m.

In the citation below, we can see a DF-31A ICBM being moved into Shaoyang, Hunan for the 805 brigade.

New DF-31A ICBM Brigade in Hunan? | AsiaEye

In the following citation, we see more proof of DF-31A ICBM deployment that meshes with the list of known DF-31A ICBM brigades.

Chinese Mobile ICBMs Seen in Central China | Federation of American Scientists

The total of seven Chinese DF-31A ICBM brigades is consistent with the known rate of Chinese DF-31A ICBM production at one brigade per year.[4]

In conclusion, we know there are at least six large Chinese missile bases. Each Chinese missile base has many brigades of ICBMs. At Missile Base 55, there are two brigades of DF-5A/B ICBMs. Those two 803rd and 814th brigades (or 24 ICBMs) already exceed the U.S. estimate of 20 total DF-5 ICBMs. When you include the other five missile bases, it should be obvious that the U.S. estimate is dead wrong.

Similarly, we see pictures of the widespread deployment of Chinese DF-31A ICBMs. With one to two brigades of DF-31A ICBMs at each missile base, the estimate of seven known Chinese DF-31A brigades is very reasonable.

----------

1. PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia

"Second Artillery Corps missile units are organized into what the PLA refers to as “bases”. There are six bases, each located in a different geographical area. Described in the terms used by the Russian military, these bases are analogous to Russia's “Missile Armies”. Each base has numerous subordinate missile brigades, with each brigade maintaining one or more garrisons, various underground facilities (UGFs), rail transfer points, and field launch positions."

2. New DF-31A ICBM Brigade in Hunan? | AsiaEye

"Each brigade is presumably equipped with 12 launchers (six launch battalions, two subordinate companies each, and with each company assigned one launcher)."

3. Spotlight on New Second Artillery ICBM Base Leadership | AsiaEye

4. China and START. Missile buildup may surpass U.S., Russia as they denuclearize

"China and START
By Richard D. Fisher Jr.,
The Washington Times,
20 September 2010
...
In its latest report to the Congress on China`s military released on Aug. 16, the Pentagon says there are less than 10 DF-31 and "10-15" DF-31A ICBMs, up to five more than reported in the previous year`s report, covering 2008. However, in the 2010 issue of "Military Balance," Britain`s International Institute of Strategic Studies notes there is one brigade of 12 DF-31s and two brigades or 24 DF-31A ICBMs, indicating a possible increase of one new brigade from 2008 to 2009.
...
This analyst has been told by Asian military sources that the DF-31A already carries three warheads and that one deployed DF-5B carries five or six warheads."

 

[Martian2]

Two known Chinese DF-31 ICBM brigades

I have previously covered the eight brigades of liquid-fueled DF-5A/B ICBMs and seven brigades of solid-fueled DF-31A ICBMs.

The DF-31 ICBM (at 13 meter length) is smaller than the DF-31A (at 16 meter length) and has a shorter range.[1] However, the DF-31 can reach Alaska, Hawaii, and possibly the Northwest of the United States.

The two known brigades of DF-31 ICBMs are located at:

1. Nanyang (813th Brigade)
2. Xining (Urban/Industrial Brigade or U/I Brigade)

PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia

----------

Reference:

1. DF-31/-31A (CSS-9) | Missile Threat

 

[Martian2]

In December 2001, the United States National Intelligence Council forecast 75-100 Chinese DF-5 ICBMs by 2015. Their forecast was accurate. My current best estimate is 96 DF-5A/B ICBMs (in eight brigades).

----------

National Intelligence Council | Federation of American Scientists

Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015, unclassified summary of a National Intelligence Estimate, December 2001.

If you have trouble reading the small text, here's the quote:

"The Intelligence Community projects that Chinese ballistic missile forces will increase several-fold by 2015, but Beijing's future ICBM force deployed primarily against the United States�which will number around 75 to 100 warheads�will remain considerably smaller and less capable than the strategic missile forces of Russia and the United States.� "

----------

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The US ABM was aimed to neutralize China's ICBM threat, since USSR/Russia has too many of them, it is impossible to neutralize it, so they were aiming at China's.

But now with the unsuccessful ABM program and China's growing ICBM force, it will also make impossible for the US to neutralize China's ICBM force.

From the circa 2010-2020, China is largely deploying the DF-41 ICBM, and from the circa 2020-2030, China will again largely deploy the JL-3 SLBM.

This will only further knock the US back to the reality that their ABM technology cannot stop China.

 

[terranMarine]

The US ABM was aimed to neutralize China's ICBM threat, since USSR/Russia has too many of them, it is impossible to neutralize it, so they were aiming at China's.

But now with the unsuccessful ABM program and China's growing ICBM force, it will also make impossible for the US to neutralize China's ICBM force.

From the circa 2010-2020, China is largely deploying the DF-41 ICBM, and from the circa 2020-2030, China will again largely deploy the JL-3 SLBM.

This will only further knock the US back to the reality that their ABM technology cannot stop China.

Then there's China's HGV

 

[Martian2]

China is world's second-largest thermonuclear power after you divide US arsenal (to target Russia and China)

Link to NTI page on China:

----------
Picture of Chinese DF-31A ICBMs:

Picture of Chinese DF-41 ICBM:

Picture of two Chinese DF-5 ICBMs in China's Underground Great Wall:

Picture of Chinese JL-2 SLBM (aka Chinese Trident C4):