China warnings to the US: Pakistan & public debt

[Aramsogo]

^^^
Thanks for proving my point. That's a pathetically low number from a even lower base.

^^FDI into India rockets to $5.65 billion in June - Rediff.com Business
Foreign direct investment (FDI) into India saw a whopping 310 per cent increase in June to $5.65 billion, the highest monthly inflow in the last 11 financial years, indicating the revival of investor confidence in the Indian economy.

In June, 2010, FDI inflows into the country amounted to $1.38 billion.

FDI flows were also very high in May, 2011, with the country receiving foreign investment worth $4.66 billion, a jump of 111 per cent vis-a-vis the same period last year.




Lets not get off the topic by the way.

 

[jdme]

^^^
Thanks for proving my point. That's a pathetically low number from a even lower base.

It is? That's like 40-50 billion USD FDI. India never gets more and it has never affected Indian growth, much. India is high saving rate and projects can financed through public money. Besides this doesn't take into account things like soft loans...

By the way, since you and I both live in US, that's bigger concern for me.

 

[Guest01]

Wrong. India is starved for capital. Capital is being pulled just when India needs it most. China is just about done riding the US coattail. India wanted to hope on too, but the ride is already over and 800million are still starving just like Somalia. You'll see. China will come out stronger just like 2008. India that FDI is never coming now.

Again the response is on expected lines. Doubly disappointing.

First let us address the capital: The PLR in India is higher than China. This gives a clear indication that money flow is already enough and attempts are being made to further constrict it to tame the inflanationary impact. That is the situation as of today. Now if funds infusion is required than even a 100 basis point lowering of the PLR by the RBI will infuse enough capital in the economy.

I think that you confused the money supply with the hot money that flows in to the economy. Now in that regard, you must understand that all the hot money which has flown in to China has been in the real estate sector and not the manufacturing sector. Rather than being happy about this, one needs to be alarmed. You have to check your FDI data for 2010-2011 for comparing the inflows variance in manufacturing versus real estate YoY. That will help you understand it better.

Now, regarding the dependence on US and why China's only option is to continue holding on to the tail of the bull. That is becuase if US slows down then there will be a "true double dip" in China. First the USD will depreciate hence eroding the debt value. Second with the USD being weaker local manufacturing will become competitive overtime (medium term) and they will not find the Chinese goods so beneficial. So the factories in Guangzhou that shut down for a year earlier will then have to be shut down forever adding severly to the mass of NPAs accumulated from the last communist lending spree (so much this time that it will be difficult for even the supermen in the communist party to hide the fact). That is what you call a true double dip. Sort of getting wanked from two ends of the same stick.

And now it is clear that you know nothing about the how economies work and hence in your incompetency you are looking to throw around sash about starving people etc. A truly starving person is who is incapable of absorbing knowledge and in his ignorance tries to hide the incompetence by dandying around with lies.

I am now increasingly convinced that you need a lot of help from me. Please ask more questions and help will be on the way. I hope that you will soon find that I am a very worthy friend for you on this thread.


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[Aramsogo]

You can't take one month and multiply it by 12. What's August going to be?? Get it??

 

[praveen]

Most of the FDI is indian black money routed through Maurtius and Maladives every year.Indians seriously invest their black money back in India

 

[jdme]

You can't take one month and multiply it by 12. What's August going to be?? Get it??

No I can't. I am only showing you the trend.

FDI in India Statistics

After last year's fall, FDI has seen a turnaround. No one knows what will happen tomorrow.

 

[Obambam]

What idiotic logic. Just because the Indian economy is less connected to the developed world doesn't mean it will do better. Somalia is even less connected than India, should I worry Somalia will be the next economic superpower??

I wouldn't say the same about their I.T and Telecommunications shares though.

 

[praveen]

Seriously guys the economy needs lot of tax reforms than FDI medium business in the manufacturing and service sector are feeling the heat of the

 

[Aramsogo]

You fail to address any of my core points. China is about done riding the US coattails. The factor productivity is now in China. The capital is now in China. The human capital is now in China. India is just getting started but the ride is over. China took 30 years to do it, but India only had 10 and the ride is over. Will China invest in India like US did in China?? I doubt it. Africa and SA are much more attractive markets.

No one cares about the RBI. It's such an insignificant little ant in the global economy. Just like no one cares about the Reserve Bank of Somalia.

Again the response is on expected lines. Doubly disappointing.

First let us address the capital: The PLR in India is higher than China. This gives a clear indication that money flow is already enough and attempts are being made to further constrict it to tame the inflanationary impact. That is the situation as of today. Now if funds infusion is required than even a 100 basis point lowering of the PLR by the RBI will infuse enough capital in the economy.

I think that you confused the money supply with the hot money that flows in to the economy. Now in that regard, you must understand that all the hot money which has flown in to China has been in the real estate sector and not the manufacturing sector. Rather than being happy about this, one needs to be alarmed. You have to check your FDI data for 2010-2011 for comparing the inflows variance in manufacturing versus real estate YoY. That will help you understand it better.

Now, regarding the dependence on US and why China's only option is to continue holding on to the tail of the bull. That is becuase if US slows down then there will be a "true double dip" in China. First the USD will depreciate hence eroding the debt value. Second with the USD being weaker local manufacturing will become competitive overtime (medium term) and they will not find the Chinese goods so beneficial. So the factories in Guangzhou that shut down for a year earlier will then have to be shut down forever adding severly to the mass of NPAs accumulated from the last communist lending spree (so much this time that it will be difficult for even the supermen in the communist party to hide the fact). That is what you call a true double dip. Sort of getting wanked from two ends of the same stick.

And now it is clear that you know nothing about the how economies work and hence in your incompetency you are looking to throw around sash about starving people etc. A truly starving person is who is incapable of absorbing knowledge and in his ignorance tries to hide the incompetence by dandying around with lies.

I am now increasingly convinced that you need a lot of help from me. Please ask more questions and help will be on the way. I hope that you will soon find that I am a very worthy friend for you on this thread.


.

 

[Guest01]

I wouldn't say the same about their I.T and Telecommunications shares though.

You are right my friend. Indian IT firms are exposed to higher tilt on the customer portfolio in the west. That is why the IT firms took a lot of hit on the bourses today. However, considering that this is a small percentile of the gross product (you know India is anyway no great shakes at exports) the insulation from external impacts is relatively stronger compared to China. That is what we were trying to explain to our other belligerant friend but he is more interested in talking about Somalian starvation.


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[Aramsogo]

I wouldn't say the same about their I.T and Telecommunications shares though.

Exactly, GE IT Dept announced yesterday they are bring that work back to the US.

 

[praveen]

useless service tax.If it continues any further most medium term players will not show the major volume of the business in accounts

 

[jdme]

Seriously guys the economy needs lot of tax reforms than FDI medium business in the manufacturing and service sector are feeling the heat of the

More than that, we need labor reforms to create a serious manufacturing base in India. Government is formulating a comprehensive manufacturing package. Lets see what it has.

 

[praveen]

I heard China is on a treadmill called construction useless construction

 

[jdme]

Exactly, GE IT Dept announced yesterday they are bring that work back to the US.

No one said India will not feel the heat. IT service is like 130 billion dollar industry. Then there is equity and exports. Question is how much of impact. 1% GDP point, I bet, no more.