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China-US Geopolitics: News & Discussions

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Little for US to gain from a trade war
By Ed Zhang (Chinadaily.com.cn) 14:47, January 21, 2017

Will there be a trade war between the world's two largest trading powers? Anxiety is spreading among business people around the world as the Trump administration takes office in the United States, with many saying a showdown with China is unavoidable and imminent.

In his inauguration speech on Friday, Donald Trump signaled no retreat from his populist agenda on trade, immigration, and on scaling back commitments overseas.

"Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs," he said.

If he means what he says, then how many regular business ties will be affected? No one can tell. However, Chinese business people can use this moment to reflect on what they have to lose and gain from a trade war, if one does materialize.

First, what they will lose? If there is a hike in tariffs across the board, then Chinese companies will lose a lot of orders for the same goods they have been shipping to the US market for the last decade.

What will they gain? Some of these goods are made from imported materials, like iron ore, and actually don't sell for much of a profit. And environmentally, they may even produce a negative value. Officials with China's National Development and Reform Commission may thank the Trump administration if it can help China offload obsolete, unsustainable industrial capacity quicker.

Chinese business executives, at the same time, may use the opportunity to apply for more tax breaks and preferential policies and turn to producing more competitive products. With the right policy incentives, China's ample savings can be used for a new round of industrial investment.

Now is a good time for China to upgrade its industry – with some 7 million college graduates (more than half of its total new labor) joining its labor market each year.

The rise in labor costs, at the same time, no longer permits the kind of production widespread in China in a decade ago.

Second, what will be the reaction? No war can be one-sided. The Chinese government will adopt counter-measures, and local companies will find more import substitution opportunities in the selected industries.

And if a real war is waged alongside a trade war, that will only create more defense orders for local companies.

Third, what cost will the war-maker will bear? Every war comes with a cost. And trade wars backfire easily, especially for a more advanced economy. If heavy protection is required for US manufacturers to make the same goods as can be made equally well in China or in Mexico, then it will hurt, rather than benefit, the competitiveness of the US economy.

A temporary protection may be needed, admittedly, for workers to swap jobs and companies to turn out new products. But long term, it is a dose of poison for entrepreneurship.

In the future world market, US companies cannot compete by making the things that can be made in many developing countries. Even Chinese companies can't afford to think that way, now that its wages are above some other Asian countries.

In what areas the US economy will enjoy future competitiveness is for US leaders to point out.

Fourth, the war-maker will inevitable make a loss: A trade war will also backfire because it will turn away potential customers in a country with a population of 1.3 billion. Many international brands have benefited from their sales to China. It would be foolish to deny US brands the opportunity to do the same.

Last, what is the purpose of a trade war anyway? If it is for China to buy more Made-in-the-US products, then why must anyone, especially anyone calling himself a businessperson, engage in a trade war? What real business-people should do is negotiate to strike the best deal they can.

Indeed, since Trump was quoted as having said everything is negotiable, what's the point of a trade war?


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Withdrew from TPP - yes.
Giving the fossil fuel industry (Big Oil) a big boost - yes.
Building a border wall - yes. (BTW, China can building it quickly, she has lots of heavy equipment and automation).
Extreme vetting of refugees and migrants from seven countries - yes (but not Saudi Arabia).
Buildup of military - yes, but where is the money coming from?
Lifting sanctions on Russia - maybe.
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Trade war with Mexico or Canada - yes. Easy to dismantle NAFTA, both are "small" countries.
Trade war with Germany or France - maybe. (This is getting difficult with a medium size power).
Trade war with China - nah, won't happen.

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Interview: Kissinger warns of dire consequences if China, US don't act together

The US and China need to see themselves as partners, not enemies, veteran US diplomat Henry Kissinger told CGTN in an exclusive interview, adding that despite its combative rhetoric the new Trump administration will eventually stick to past US policy on China.

“I think it is essential for China and the United States to think of each other as potential partners, not as potential adversaries and to solve their disputes on the basis of long-term cooperation,” the former US secretary of state said.

“If we do not do this, the whole world will be divided and other countries will be tempted to take advantage of that situation.”

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Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger waves after receiving an award during a ceremony at the Pentagon honoring his diplomatic career May 9, 2016 in Washington, DC. /CFP Photo

The future of US-China relations has been thrown into confusion following comments by Trump that China was a currency manipulator and that he would impose massive trade tariffs on Beijing. He has also appeared to question the long-standing one-China policy, which sees Taiwan as part of China.

Kissinger, who amassed massive knowledge about China during his diplomatic career, including as secretary of state under US President Richard Nixon, warned that past principles should be respected.

“The United States and the Chinese leaders developed a formulation on the one-China principle that should be the guidance today… I believe we will come to a point in which it is understood that the early principles of the US-China relationship have to be maintained,” he said.

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Henry Kissinger. /CFP Photo

“I think in the end, President Trump will also follow comparable principles” to previous administrations, Kissinger noted, adding “I have every hope that the objectives that I described will find their way into the ultimate American policy.”

Trump met with the 93-year-old diplomat, who has acted as foreign policy adviser for a number of US administrations, shortly after the election last November. Media reports said their conversation covered Russia, Iran and the European Union, as well as China.

At the same time, Kissinger was critical of some of Trump's policies during the election campaign, including a proposal to ban all Muslims from entering the US, which was partly put in place with Trump’s recent executive order barring residents of seven majority Muslim countries from entering the US.

Widely seen as a trailblazer for Sino-American ties, Kissinger paid a secret visit to China in 1971, paving the way for the establishment of US-China formal diplomatic ties in 1979.

A regular visitor to China, Kissinger was last in Beijing in December when he met with President Xi Jinping.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d516a4e31456a4d/share_p.html
 
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Kissinger sticks to China-US decade-long principles in maintaining sound ties
CGTN
Published on Feb 2, 2017

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger on Thursday shared his insights on China-US bilateral trade relations under the Trump administration with CGTN reporter Wang Guan. The 93-year-old veteran diplomat said he believed President Trump will in the end follow comparable principles to previous administrations in the end.
 
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Can China take the opportunity when Trump messes around with US allies?

By Shi Yinhong Source: Global Times Published: 2017/2/7

US Secretary of Defense James Mattis wrapped up his first foreign visit to Japan and South Korea on Saturday. During his stay in South Korea, he and his South Korean counterpart Han Min-koo signed an agreement to complete the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system within this year. In Japan, Mattis reaffirmed that Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty applied to the Diaoyu Islands.

Mattis' visit has, to a certain degree, relieved the anxiety and unease of Japan and South Korea triggered by the unpredictability of the new US president, though their concerns toward the US still remain. Before Donald Trump was elected, he signaled that he would ask the two Asian allies of the US to pay more for deploying US troops there. He has taken a step back from the pledge, turning his rhetoric into behind-the-scenes negotiations. Ostensibly, the Trump administration is stressing its commitment to the US alliances with Japan and South Korea. However, it cannot completely wipe out the two Asian countries' worries.

The US' future relations with Japan and South Korea depend on whether the Trump administration will ask for more money from the two countries, or demand them to shoulder more responsibilities in their own national security. The US relations with the two countries in the Trump era will not be as close as those under Barack Obama. Nevertheless, if Washington requests Tokyo and Seoul to make greater financial or defense contribution, the two countries would have no alternative but to comply. In this case, the US alliances with Japan and South Korea will be strengthened. In particular, taking on more defense responsibilities is playing into the hands of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Compared with Obama, Trump has been alienating US' allies, be it in Europe or in East Asia. But, he may build stronger alliance with countries in East Asia and the West Pacific rather than with European countries.

It is expected that Trump may shrink the US strategic presence in the West Pacific, which can help reduce tensions in this region. However, this will push the US to concentrate its forces in places such as East Asia, a region in which the US is determined to expand its strategic influence with air-missile deployment. Meanwhile, the US will toughen its stance on North Korea. In the long run, the conflict between China and the US will intensify.

During his visit to Japan and South Korea, Mattis was critical of China's actions in the South China Sea, but said that the South China Sea disputes should be solved by diplomacy. But this doesn't mean a calm in the waters since the US has no effective tools to rival China for the time being. It takes some time to observe and discern the US strategy toward the South China Sea disputes.

As Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty requires the US to defend territories under Japanese administration, Mattis' reaffirmation of the article's application to the Diaoyu Islands means that the US and Japan are decidedly bound to oppose China militarily.

China needs to make some preparations for the Trump administration's possible strategic adjustment. It needs to be aware of not having strategic overdraft in the West-Pacific region and also improve its relations with neighboring countries. Under his tenure, Trump will handle US ties with its allies poorly. But China may miss the opportunity thereby created if it couldn't manage its relations with the neighboring countries well.

The author is director of the Center for American Studies at Renmin University of China.
 
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At the end of all the hoopla, the Big 2 always have avenues to discuss their mutual interests.

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Xi-Trump phone talk a good first step in fostering China-U.S. dialogue
(Xinhua) 09:41, February 11, 2017

The phone talk held by Chinese President Xi Jinping with his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump is a good first step in fostering the China-U.S. dialogue and provides a platform for further cooperation, U.S. experts said Friday.

"The phone call was a good first step...for fostering dialogue between Presidents Trump and Xi," Dan Mahaffee, an analyst at the Center for the Study of Congress and the Presidency, told Xinhua in an interview.

Trump and Xi held a lengthy and "extremely cordial" phone conversation Thursday night on numerous topics, during which they agreed that the two sides will engage in discussions on various issues of mutual interest.

"The fact that it was cordial, and the discussion' s tenor reflects that both leaders understand that while differences remain, they need to be addressed through dialogue and diplomacy," Mahaffee said.

Douglas Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International peace, told Xinhua that the call "was very important to provide a foundation of stability in the U.S.-China relations as well as a platform for further wide-ranging cooperation and the management of emerging tensions."

The call was the first between the leaders of the top two economies in the world since Trump's inauguration in late January. Before Thursday, Trump had already talked on the phone with about 20 foreign leaders except Xi, fueling concerns that the absence of contact between the two leaders could lead to renewed tensions in the China-U.S. ties.

The Xi-Trump phone conversation was important to break the ice in the China-U.S. ties, Darrell West, vice president and director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution, told Xinhua in an interview.

"The call helped to open the door on high-level consultation, which is good for both countries," West said.

"It is important that China and the U.S. remain in close contact. They are the two leading nations in the world and it is crucial that there are open communications so there are no misunderstandings or (something) that could spiral out of control," he added.

The experts agreed that Trump's affirmation of the one-China policy, the bedrock of theChina-U.S. ties, paved the way for the phone call, which probably came after Trump and advisers concluded that the costs of not doing so could bring greater costs than benefits.

Trump had previously aggravated China by taking a call from Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen after winning the U.S. presidency last November and telling the U.S. media in December that the one-China policy was open for negotiation.

"The fact that Trump now embraces the one-China policy will allow the relationship to unfold more naturally," West said, citing that resolving the issue was a prerequisite for addressing every other issue.

If Trump continues to question the one China policy, there would be no basis for President Xi to interact with him, said Paal, a former director of the American Institute in Taiwan.

Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Xinhua that Trump probably was convinced by his top aides that it was necessary to make the one-China statement "in order to move forward with the U.S.-China relationship in other areas."

"The costs of not adhering to the one China policy were very high," Glaser said, though adding that this should not be seen as Trump making a concession.

Media reports revealed that U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had said in written answers to questions after his Senate nomination hearing that the U.S. should adhere to the one-China policy.

As China and the U.S. start negotiations to address their frictions and advance cooperation on various issues of mutual interest, there is a broad range of issues that demand early attention, the experts said.

They include the nuclear program of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, U.S. trade deficit with China, mutual investments and boosting American exports, Paal said.

Mahaffee said at the top of the agenda of the China-U.S. talks should be the issues of maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas, cyber security, as well as trade, investment and currency.

"I think there can be discussions aimed at avoiding miscalculation between the nations in the sea, air, space and cyber domains, and I also think that agreements on trade and investment could be reached that would make it easier for companies from either country to invest in the other," he said.
 
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Interactions between Chinese, U.S. leaders "very positive" signs of ties
(Xinhua) 09:32, February 12, 2017

The recent interactions between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly their latest phone conversation, are very positive signs of the potential to develop a new type of bilateral relations, a German expert said Friday.

"President Trump's letter and subsequent phone call with President Xi Jinping are very positive signs that he indeed wants to develop a constructive relationship with China," Helga Zepp-LaRouche, founder of the Germany-based think tank Schiller Institute, said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua.

The expert said she was confident that the positive signs would help realize China's proposal to build a new type of major-country relationship featuring non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation.

"I think we are at the beginning of a completely new set of relations among major nations of the world. Geopolitics will soon be a matter of the past," Zepp-LaRouche said, responding to a question about the prospect of China-U.S. ties in the long run.

Reviewing the current dynamics in major-power relationship, Zepp-LaRouche believed that a new platform of international relations can be reached, based on win-win cooperation.

"This has the potential for a new era of mankind, the realization of President Xi's vision" of building a community of shared future for humanity, she said. "A new paradigm, something I would call the adulthood of civilization, is within reach."

In their phone conversation Friday, the first since Trump took office in January, Xi and Trump pledged to boost win-win cooperation in such areas as economy, trade, investment and international affairs, and develop a constructive China-U.S. relationship.

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This is a very good development.
The G2 may not like each other but need to get along with each other.
There is no other choice for the rest of the world.

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Turnbull: Potential for China to join TPP after US exit

Australian PM opens door to Beijing amid efforts to recast Trans-Pacific Partnership without the United States.

Australia and New Zealand have said they hope to salvage the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) by encouraging China and other Asian countries to sign up, after President Donald Trump formally pulled the US out of the huge trade deal.

The agreement, the biggest trade deal in history, was signed in 2015 by 12 countries, which together account for 40 percent of the global economy.


TPP SIGNATORIES

Australia, Vietnam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Brunei, United States (withdrawn)

Malcolm Turnbull, Australia's prime minister, said on Tuesday his government was in "active discussions" with other signatories - including Japan, New Zealand and Singapore - on how to salvage the agreement.

"It is possible that US policy could change over time on this, as it has done on other trade deals," Turnbull told reporters in Canberra, adding that the nominee for US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and other Republicans supported the TPP.

"There is also the opportunity for the TPP to proceed without the United States," he added. "Certainly there is the potential for China to join the TPP."

The agreement, which has not yet gone into effect, was seen as a counter to China's rising economic influence.

OPINION: If TPP fails, China takes advantage

Steven Ciobo, Australian trade minister, said Australia, Canada, Mexico and others had canvassed for a pact without the US at a World Trade Organisation ministerial meeting in Davos.

"There would be scope for China if we were able to reformulate it to be a TPP 12 minus one, for countries like Indonesia or China or indeed other countries to consider joining," Ciobo told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

"This is very much a live option and we are pursuing it - it will be the focus of conversations for some time to come."

INSIDE STORY: Why is Donald Trump against the TPP deal? (24:16)


Bill English, New Zealand's prime minister, expressed similar views, saying that China's government "hasn't been slow to spot the opportunity" to cast itself as a free trade supporter.

There was a willingness towards "making an effort to find out what we can do with TPP, rather than just dropping it and waiting and hoping to get a call [from Washington] about bilateral agreements sometime", he told reporters in Wellington.

Trump declared on Monday he had "terminated" TPP in line with election pledges to cancel the "job killer" pact.

The US president said he would pursue bilateral deals with TPP signatories to secure terms more favourable to Washington.

But English said a US-New Zealand pact would be challenging, given Trump's insistence that his government would dictate terms.

COUNTING THE COST: China - The world's new champion of free trade? (24:34)


China has long been noncommittal on the idea of joining the TPP, choosing to back an alternative trade pact.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a more modest deal, calls for lower and more limited regulatory standards.

It includes the 10 members of the Southeast Asian grouping ASEAN plus China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, but notably excludes the US.

At a regular press briefing on Tuesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying remained coy about Beijing joining the TPP, simply noting that China supports "open, transparent, and win-win" trade pacts.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/01/turnbull-potential-china-join-tpp-exit-170124112444155.html
 
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Japan will oppose China entry. In the first place, this stupid TPP are organised as anti-China organisation by Abe and the now disposed "Obama".

China will rewrite another trade organisation treaty and officially banned Japan from joining. We want to see our 11 trillion economy is more attractive to rest or Japan 4.6 Trillion economy?
 
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TPP is set up in the first place with the inclusion of Chinese in mind. The exclusion of China in the drafting process is simply so the US can control the treaty's drafting process. Here is an extremely insightful video that anyone who is interested in this issue should watch.

 
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I think China has a more comprehensive and less antagonistic vision of regional integration than the US regime's TPP which was hijacked by Washington and turned into a smoking (plastic) gun directed at China.

Eventually, the US got beaten in this geopolitical duel. No need to be on the losing side. Australia is better promote China-led FTAAP.
 
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Don't know why there are still people assuming China would be filling the role US left vacant. TPP is dead from the very beginning only those brainless people kept on believing it's the silver bullet to put China down :lol:
Trump did the right thing by announcing the death certificate on his first day when he assumed office. Does Turnbull need another yelling, only this time from Xi :lol:
Trump as US president is the correct choice for the progress of the whole world. Hillary as US president will be disaster for the whole world.
 
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Trump as US president is the correct choice for the progress of the whole world. Hillary as US president will be disaster for the whole world.

As Trump would put it, Hillary is a total disaster which is why his latest lash out reflects the inheritance of the mess created by previous administrations. Even though many people initially thought Obama inherited the Bush legacies, his aid Hillary also made a mess herself. Not surprising Trump would come out as the last man standing while the rest of the candidates succumbed.

P.S. the overly active mod here needs to stop editing silly things and start planning his itinerary for his european trip
 
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