Zarvan
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Robert Farley, assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky, said China’s dependence on Russian supplies and technology will come to an end in the next 10 years, reports Washington-based right-wing National Interest magazine on July 2.
In his article about what the People’s Liberation Army could look like in 2025, Farley said that China’s current ground, naval and air forces have become changed dramatically from the 1990s. At that time, the PLA was still using antiquated equipment and concentrating on making money rather than preparing for a conflict. It was also focusing more on threats from the north rather than from the east, according to Farley.
The author said one area in which the PLA remains far behind the US military is in operational experience. Though the US campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan could charitably said to have been a mixed experience, it cannot be denied that the US now has a battle-hardened fighting force at its disposal. The same cannot be said of the PLA.
Farley said it remains unknown whether the PLA is planning to start an endless and pointless series of wars to become as experienced. China is, however, stepping up its efforts at building experiental knowledge through improving the realism of training drills. This means that the PLA will increase its operational experience in the next 10 years.
Beijing has also been crafting an anti-access/area denial strategy in its military operations. This strategy includes political warfare methods, including legal, public opinion and psychological warfare techniques in addition to the fight on the battlefield. Beijing wants to take away the sway of US forces over its littoral areas. In order to do this the various branches of the PLA must become stronger and more united — something President Xi Jinping has conspicuously been seeking to achieve by purging factions and demanding absolute loyalty to the party.
Meanwhile, China’s dependence on Russia for advanced weapons systems and technology will reduce gradually. In 10 years, Farley said that Russia can no longer remain ahead of China on the technological frontier and Beijing’s military-industrial complex will eventually emerge from the shadow of Russia.
Even though a China-centric alliance system is unlikely to appear in the next decade, the nation is set to become one of the world’s leading arms exporters. Using the possible sales of submarines to Thailand or JF-17 fighters to Argentina as an example, Farley said countries that buy arms from China will have a long-term need for maintenance, training, consulting and upgrade possibilities, from which China can benefit politically as well as economically.
China to end its reliance on Russian military technology: expert | idrw.org