You present a poignant analysis,
@Gufi . The development of these radical groups , many of whom are forced inot it or are contributing to its critical masse vis-a-vis herd mentality. We have to also consider the behavioral and cognitive psychology that posits their actions -- and givent he ambivalence in human behavior --- requires an analysis on the external environment (and various independent variables there, such as stress, filial dynamic, religious institutionalization, economic depravity, and various others that are common in communities of low socoieconomic stratum).
One can , in part, link two events in the region as catalysts for what has happened: 1) The initiation of the Syrian Civil War (and the methodology used), and 2) The evacuation of the US Armed Forces from Iraq and the subsequent Power Vacuum (to refer
@jhungary 's premise in his past post ).
What is the situational awareness we have? How can this situational awareness project itself in a thorough game plan. Clearly, one thing has to happen to restore some kind of balance: 1) Provide a power re-balancing in Iraq, 2) End the Syrian Civil War. How can we do this ? Well, for one, a power balance can be achieved in various ways --- the deployment of an allied contingent to help aid the Iraqi Armed Forces to combat and retake ISIS-held municipalities throughout the country. Establish a UN Peace-Keeping Force in war affected towns, cities, provinces and thus prevent communal clashes from happening post-ISIS. Lastly, how can we end the Syrian Civil War? Clearly and ultimatly the only way the war will end is if Assad steps down (or is removed from power), he cannot expect to maintain legitimacy as ruler of Syria when he has been responsible for humanitarian travesty in his own country. Syria would, thus, be required to be under UN Peace Keeping until a democratic assembly is made and a leader and administration is selected through popular will.
Then, here's the caveat --- how can we dis-arm ex-militants / ex-terrorists ? Therein lies another conundrum for policy and strategic analysts.
Therein lies the caveat --- this problem is a result of various external factors. The Syrian Civil War, the American Pullout and subsequent power vacuum in Iraq, the Sectarian differences in Iraq (Sunni vs Shi'a vs Kurd), then to nefarious interferences to destabilize the region (and there is a plethora of players here; ergo, the united states is not the one you should be focusing on all the time).
