China/Pakistan/India - Was Nehru smarter than Modi?

[Chinese-Dragon]

CD keeps switching between pro-India and anti-India stance every now and then. A few months here, a few months there. Don't be bothered.

You think it's an anti-India stance when I want to protect my country from wars, like the one Nehru started in 1962?

If that makes me anti-India, then I guess I am.

But remember who changed to a "new assertive posture", which could easily be mistaken for a new Forward Policy.

Especially since the borders are not demarcated.

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

I guess the government gives a new memo every quarter.

You think it's an anti-India stance when I want to protect my country from wars, like the one Nehru started in 1962?

Whatever you like.

But remember who changed to a "new assertive posture", which could easily be mistaken for a new Forward Policy.

Especially since the borders are not demarcated.

It's okay, it's okay we understand

 

[kadamba-warrior]

If China perceives the existence of Indian defensive positions that have existed all along as a new Forward Policy, there is nothing India can peacefully do, other than raise their hands up and surrender all territory.

He would rather India rolls over and pretends dead when India come across PLA in a territory (which is arguably disputed), just because of his new found wealth!!!

Any other response will construed as 'forward policy' as he so fancily puts it!!

Also, notice his hypocrisy when it comes to ceasefire violations across Pakistani border! He makes it sound as if it was all started by 'Modi'.
Now, I know he knows nothing about the ground situation there!

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

It's okay, it's okay we understand

I think you do understand, actually.

Anyway, Modi did decide to back down during the last "border incursion", so maybe there is hope for him yet.

Or I guess he could order the Indian army to be more "assertive" at the border, i.e. Forward Policy version 2.

That is an extremely tight rope to walk. Things can escalate extremely fast.

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

I think you do understand, actually.

Anyway, Modi did decide to back down during the last "border incursion", so maybe there is hope for him yet.

Or I guess he could order the Indian army to be more "assertive" at the border, i.e. Forward Policy version 2.

That is an extremely tight rope to walk. Things can escalate extremely fast.

It's okay CD, we understand you now. No need to work so hard to explain

 

[kadamba-warrior]

No, read the Reuters article.

Even officials in New Delhi have told Reuters that it is the "new assertive posture" of the Modi government that is escalating the situation on the borders.

Nowhere does even the Reuters article say that India intruded into Chinese territory nor does it say that Modi ordered ceasefire violations!

Being assertive need not necessarily mean invading others territory or shooting at the civilians across the border!!! It can also mean standing up to repeated bullying and ceasefire violations at the border!

If you choose to call it 'forward policy', it only means that you are itching for war!

I hope that the actual decision-makers in Beijing are saner than you, though!

 

[kadamba-warrior]

I am still in favor of Modi.

India is being led by a mass murderer, who would never have the support of the 200 million Indian Muslims.

If there was any way to fracture the most basic aspect of Indian culture (unity in diversity), what better than an extremist mass murderer of Indian Muslims getting into power.

According to you, he is a mass murderer but you are still in favour of him?

We couldn't care less even if you were not in favour of Modi!

What do you have as proof to accuse him of a mass murder? Even the highest court in India exonerated him of all charges -- let alone convicting him!

Truth is Modi is being refreshingly "assertive" when it comes to economy, and that's all we poor Indians care!

 

[Developereo]

@Horus, @Developereo, what do you think of the geopolitics at play here?

How far will Modi's "new assertive posture" go, and if he conducts another Forward Policy what do you think will happen?

Note that it doesn't have to be an actual Forward Policy, the thing that matters is whether or not we perceive one of his "new assertive" policies to be a threat on par with the Forward Policy.

I think there are two factors at play here:

a) Modi's policy will be to keep all foreign countries on their toes. He will give the Americans some indication that India _may_ join an anti-China alliance (part-time). He will give the Chinese and Russians some indication that India _may_ join an alliance (part-time) against the established order.

b) Modi is playing up to his "no nonsense tough guy" image. The danger is whether he will become hostage to that image and make some rash moves -- especially if there's trouble on the domestic (economic) front.

Overall, though, I don't expect any serious military issues between China-India-Pakistan. A prolonged war would be bad for India's economy and Modi would lose the support of the business community. It would be political suicide for him.

 

[Shinigami]

Just a random thought. Comment if you like.

Nehru was smart, when he launched his Forward Policy against China, we were at the weakest period of our history, not to mention in the middle of the worst famine in our history, the Great leap forward. We were literally collapsing with starvation, the Great leap forward alone dropped China's GDP by over 1/3, making us significantly poorer than India at that time as well.

Which meant Nehru was smart, because if you want to start a Forward Policy against a country like China, you'd better be damn sure we are at the weakest point imaginable, collapsing from famine for example.

Modi on the other hand, is now pressing forward with his "new assertive posture", against both China AND Pakistan.

this is a common myth generated in the imagination of chinese dragon. forward policy was not an invasion of china but maneuvers conducted by the indian border gaurds on its border to discourage chinese poaching of land after it invaded tibet.
This was also the time (which this guy conveniently leaves out) when india's military power was near zero.

i had posted a thread about this:

If china had not attacked india, would pakistan have won the 65 war?

If china had not attacked india, would pakistan have won the 65 war?

I am inclined to think so.

Till 1962 nehru was kicking out scores of military men by the day, replaced competent officers with yes-men, kept a lousy defence minister, completely neglected the military in favour of the economy.

Not to mention we hardly had any weapons (when war came nehru had to beg US for weapons), nor the ammo for the few we already had (indian soldiers had to fight the chinese with sticks so to speak)
Our logistics and supply chain were lousy and the troops were sent to fight the chinese in their summer outfit in sub zero temperatures.


So these same conditions would have prevailed in 1965 when pakistan made a major thrust, which may have led to an indian defeat.

In the words of a pakistani analyst:
Till 1965 Pakistan Army keeping in view its equipment and training was relatively superior to the Indian Army. India under Nehru was a peaceful country but the Sino-Indian Conflict of 1962 transformed the whole scenario. Thus while Indian Army had by and large registered no major expansion since 1947 after 1962 the Indians embarked on a highly ambitious expansion programme.It was Pakistan’s good luck that in 1965 this process was at a very rudimentary stage, however by 1971 the whole strategic scenario had changed

 

[Not Sure]

Modi is not only smarter than Nehru, but is also much better aware of the geopolitics in the region, and beyond.

Nothing will come of this supposed "standoff", except for further weakening of Pakistan.

 

[MokshaVimukthi]

Interesting psy-ops by CD ...... but looks like it back fired on him. This is what happens when you base your understanding of India on what pakistanis tell you

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

b) Modi is playing up to his "no nonsense tough guy" image. The danger is whether he will become hostage to that image and make some rash moves -- especially if there's trouble on the domestic (economic) front.

Overall, though, I don't expect any serious military issues between China-India-Pakistan. A prolonged war would be bad for India's economy and Modi would lose the support of the business community. It would be political suicide for him.

Nehru didn't want a war either. According to the Indian Army's own internal Henderson-Brooks report, he "didn't expect any resistance" from the Chinese, basically he thought he could walk in and just take what he wanted.

Bear in mind China at that point was in the worst famine of our history, and many international observers expected the Chinese state to collapse, so obviously a good opportunity for those who seek our lands without resistance. Nehru was not wrong to pick that moment, it was our weakest point.

But, like I said, imagine Mexico started setting up military outposts in Texas (or the Indian Dhola post which was far beyond the MacMahon line), and ordered the Mexican Army to "throw out the Americans" from their own soil.

Even a starving China could not back down from that kind of a war declaration, otherwise we would have been eaten alive by our Cold War rivals (USA and USSR) who had already surrounded us in literally every single direction.

We even fed and clothed the Indian soldiers we took prisoner, giving up our own precious food when there was hardly any to spare for ourselves.

The OP is 'highly impressed' with one of the esteemed Admins (and owner). So don't be surprised if his anti India rhetoric rises exponentially.

They had multiple discussions and well - you see the results here.

You are right to an extent, I do agree with some of the theories given by @Horus.

However it's not simply that I looked at his theory and thought "well that must be right"... no it's because it is also fairly similar to my own theories on the border issues.

Which seems to be coming true, see the original quote from the Reuters source. Modi's "new assertive posture" is causing an escalation in border tension, seen recently in the nature of both his border clashes with China and then Pakistan, including the killing of 20 civilians by firing on civilian villages across your LOC.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Which seems to be coming true, see the original quote from the Reuters source. Modi's "new assertive posture" is causing an escalation in border tension, seen recently in the nature of both his border clashes with China and then Pakistan, including the killing of 20 civilians by firing on civilian villages across your LOC.

That's the way any self respecting nation will treat a rogue state. There is one thing I failed to understand though - what is called a civilian village? Villages are supposed to be civilian areas.

India, as a responsible nation evacuated its civilians in time from the border areas as soon as possible hence minimizing Indian civilian casualties.

You are right to an extent, I do agree with some of the theories

Even in that case China has only to gain and nothing to lose. In fact in the best case scenario (from China/Pak) side is that India will cease to exist. And you two can perhaps share a drink in New Delhi or whatever new name you chose for it. In the worst case scenario, there will be no escalation and status quo will be maintained. So best wishes there as well.

From a geopolitical perspective, anyone who is not blinded by Islamist Indophobia, will conclude that both India and China are responsible states and the chances of them going into any overt conflict is ZERO. Islamist dreams of riding the dragon will remain just that - dream.

On a similar note, let me just bring history as a witness - the USA was in your shoes once upon a time. They had great hopes, strategic partnerships and put a lot of faith too. It did not end all too well for them.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

From a geopolitical perspective, anyone who is not blinded by Islamist Indophobia, will conclude that both India and China are responsible states and the chances of them going into any overt conflict is ZERO. Islamist dreams of riding the dragon will remain just that - dream.

On a similar note, let me just bring history as a witness - the USA was in your shoes once upon a time. They had great hopes, strategic partnerships and put a lot of faith too. It did not end all too well for them.

Well of course I consider China to be a responsible state, we have not had any cross-border bloodshed in the last 30 years, as part of our "Peaceful rise" policy. In our territorial disputes, we use things like water cannons and tents, nobody dies.

Many Indians of course will not agree, they will call us aggressive even if we have no cross-border bloodshed with any country.

Similarly, when I look at India, well you guys have cross-border bloodshed all the time, on both the Pakistan and Bangladesh borders. Just a few days ago 20 civilians were killed, and even actual soldiers get beheaded, and their bodied mutilated there. Forget soldiers, even cattle traders and civilians get killed regularly on those borders. Instead of water cannons and tents, you guys use artillery/mortar and bullets.

Being a responsible state is a perception that people have of their own country, it is very much subjective depending on the viewpoint. And for the people on the other side of Modi's "new aggressive posture", the opinions might be the opposite.

 

[Narashima]

Well of course I consider China to be a responsible state, we have not had any cross-border bloodshed in the last 30 years, as part of our "Peaceful rise" policy. In our territorial disputes, we use things like water cannons and tents, nobody dies.
Many Indians of course will not agree, they will call us aggressive even if we have no cross-border bloodshed with any country.
Similarly, when I look at India, well you guys have cross-border bloodshed all the time, on both the Pakistan and Bangladesh borders. Just a few days ago 20 civilians were killed, and even actual soldiers get beheaded, and their bodied mutilated there. Forget soldiers, even cattle traders and civilians get killed regularly on those borders. Instead of water cannons and tents, you guys use artillery/mortar and bullets.
Being a responsible state is a perception that people have of their own country, it is very much subjective depending on the viewpoint. And for the people on the other side of Modi's "new aggressive posture", the opinions might be the opposite.

if china start firing on our borders, our response will be same. We don't discriminate between any nation