China overwhelmed in Taiwan war scenario: simulation

[jhungary]

yes, we'll see. Look at the US Navy's demining operations, after all, before the US Navy voluntarily acted, these were dreams lol

Well, dream are you think this is going to be cake walk and you think US will not act anyway as far as US ship was sunk by the Chinese. That's dream. But then I am not really surprise because you think Taiwan would have problem with coming up 400 extra pilot to fly the F-16........Me? I don't do fantasy, I only interested in fact.

But if you think US will not get involved even if US ship was sunk, then I really don't know what the problem is.

 

[huanghong]

Well, dream are you think this is going to be cake walk and you think US will not act anyway as far as US ship was sunk by the Chinese. That's dream. But then I am not really surprise because you think Taiwan would have problem with coming up 400 extra pilot to fly the F-16........Me? I don't do fantasy, I only interested in fact.

But if you think US will not get involved even if US ship was sunk, then I really don't know what the problem is.

yes, you are only interested in facts, your dreams are reality, such as the Perry class attacked by Iraq, such as the USS Panay sunk by the Japanese. I don't know what's wrong

 

[Nasr]

The level of over confidence being displayed by the West through its propaganda bullhorns is so hysterical, that one cannot be even serious in trying to debate them.

All I'm going to say, go ahead and try to challenge China militarily and see what happens. Its not like the West has any plans for peace in any case. Since the West is losing its economic dominance over the world, once its lost it completely and the effects of it start to be felt by Western citizens, then they will go to war just to keep their own citizens from rebelling against them.

This is how the West is so predictably stupid, and Russia, China and the rest of the world has figured the West out.

 

[jhungary]

yes, you are only interested in facts, your dreams are reality, such as the Perry class attacked by Iraq, such as the USS Panay sunk by the Japanese. I don't know what's wrong

Again, if you think US will not get involved even if Chinese sunk a US Navy warship, then there are nothing for you to worry about, am I correct?

But funny thing tho, after USS Panay in 1937, WE WENT TO WAR WITH JAPAN in 1941, and after USS Stark in 1987, WE WENT TO WAR WITH IRAQ in 1991.

Are we really that "forgive and forget"? I know, it must be a coincident........lol

 

[huanghong]

Again, if you think US will not get involved even if Chinese sunk a US Navy warship, then there are nothing for you to worry about, am I correct?

But funny thing tho, after USS Panay in 1937, WE WENT TO WAR WITH JAPAN in 1941, and after USS Stark in 1987, WE WENT TO WAR WITH IRAQ in 1991.

Are we really that "forgive and forget"? I know, it must be a coincident........lol

LOL, are you saying that the US will join the war in the Taiwan Strait goes to war 4 years later? WOW, this is really great news, may your dreams come true.LOL

 

[jhungary]

LOL, are you saying that the US will join the war in the Taiwan Strait goes to war 4 years later? WOW, this is really great news, may your dreams come true.LOL

I didn't say anything, again, i am interested in fact.

Facts are, WE WERE AT WAR WITH THAT TWO COUNTRIES after those incidents, are you going to deny this fact? So what's if we were 4 years or 3 months afterward? We didn't invade Afghanistan immediately after 9/11, so are there really points there?

I mean, as I said, if you think we aren't going to do jack after you sunk our ship, then you would have nothing to worry about, am I correct? So no, MAY your dream come true.

 

[huanghong]

I didn't say anything, again, i am interested in fact.

Facts are, WE WERE AT WAR WITH THAT TWO COUNTRIES after those incidents, are you going to deny this fact? So what's if we were 4 years or 3 months afterward? We didn't invade Afghanistan immediately after 9/11, so are there really points there?

I mean, as I said, if you think we aren't going to do jack after you sunk our ship, then you would have nothing to worry about, am I correct? So no, MAY your dream come true.

Yes, yes, very coincidental. Dreams do come true, and the USS Pueblo is waiting for the war to happen. It is good to have dreams, I bless you.

 

[jhungary]

Yes, yes, very coincidental. Dreams do come true, and the USS Pueblo is waiting for the war to happen. It is good to have dreams, I bless you.

Whatever, I have lost interest in this.

As I said, if you think US will not get involved even if you sink one of their ships, then there will be no problem for you, right?

 

[huanghong]

Whatever, I have lost interest in this.

As I said, if you think US will not get involved even if you sink one of their ships, then there will be no problem for you, right?

LOL, history already tells us the answer

 

[Foinikas]

Let's see what you guys can do. A lot of talk and wishful thinking for the time being.

Again "what you guys". You're fucking Dutch. You should be saying "we guys".

 

[gambit]

Whatever, I have lost interest in this.

It does get boring after a while, ain't it? It would be a different discussion if the guy was interested even if ignorant, but he is clearly not interested in learning but in doubling down on his ignorance. DK is the norm for these guys.

Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[jhungary]

It does get boring after a while, ain't it? It would be a different discussion if the guy was interested even if ignorant, but he is clearly not interested in learning but in doubling down on his ignorance. DK is the norm for these guys.

Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

lol, he is literally arguing with the idea that it would be A-OK if US will not response, and hence US must not response.

That's not Dunning Kruger Effect, that just outright stupid lol

 

[lightning F57]

China would have a hard time trying to blockade from inside Taiwanese Territorial water, Taiwan have quite a lot of shore based Anti-Ship missile, and if Ukrainian Neptune can sink a Russian Cruiser (Unless you really buy the ship fire BS story), imagine those Harpoon, Hsiung Feng II/III Taiwan have can do to Chinese ship getting too close. In a blockade situation, you either need to shoot at US shipping or you just let them go and watch them resupply Taiwan.

On the other hand, it would be a great deal of damage to China even if US decided to do an Ukraine on Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, US will open everything to them, F-16, M-1 Abrams, M270 and HIMARS all will be open to transfer, and US have a lot of them in storage. Imagine US sending 400 F-16 to Taiwan? Or the 8 OHP Class Frigate that they have in storage? Or 1000 Abrams MBT? Or 10 Patriot Missile Batteries? All those Taiwan is currently operating, which mean zero transition time, and that's just what already have in Taiwan inventory, there will be talks for just about everything else, up to Arleigh Burke Class destoryer or even F-35 Stealth Aircraft if US think China is too far gone and going to invade, I mean, if they do, there are no point in withholding them just to please China.

If US think war between Taiwan and China is no longer avoidable, US will open up their National Guard Armoury and Arms Depot and tell Taiwan to come pick and choose, the difference between Taiwan and Ukraine is they already operate quite a few advance US tech, and probably more important than anything else, Taiwan can pay for those item they wanted, which make it a lot easier for Congress to allow the transfer.

I agree it will be a huge task but I think for China if they invaded blockading and stopping Taiwans ability to attack their ships will be the first objective. If they achieve that no ships from anywhere can enter Taiwanese waters as you would expect the Chinese to be controlling them. They could then mine around the territorial waters as well.

That for me is how you limit aid to Taiwan and also prevent direct intervention from any country. Lets also be real here if China and US go to war we could be looking at WW3. That is a high cost neither side will want regardless of how valuable Taiwan might be for either of them.

 

[jhungary]

I agree it will be a huge task but I think for China if they invaded blockading and stopping Taiwans ability to attack their ships will be the first objective. If they achieve that no ships from anywhere can enter Taiwanese waters as you would expect the Chinese to be controlling them. They could then mine around the territorial waters as well.

That for me is how you limit aid to Taiwan and also prevent direct intervention from any country. Lets also be real here if China and US go to war we could be looking at WW3. That is a high cost neither side will want regardless of how valuable Taiwan might be for either of them.

Blockade don't usually works and for your plan to work China would need to actively seek out and destroying almost all Taiwanese Coastal Defense and degrade them to a point where they can't effectively fight back, because you have to have full sea control to be able to lay mine, otherwise your minelayer is going on a suicide mission.

The condition would also be make worse by being an amphibious assault, China also would need ships and fleet to secure the sea route, which mean you are going to take a chunk of Naval power out to do that instead, would there still be enough ship to blockade Taiwan?

On the other hand, what would be the US and Japanese response? Because if US decided to run the blockade (they did before in Rio de la Plata and WW2) how are the Chinese Navy going to manage that? Do you fight the USN? Or spend more resource to play cat and mouse game with them?

Now, I can't tell you what the answer was, I can say this tho, there is a reason blockade won't usually works, especially when Taiwan is facing an open ocean on one side. The problem for the Chinese are two-fold, they have to deal with the American, whether how to stop them from supplying Taiwan, and how to keep them away from this war. Because I can tell you this, if US can keep Taiwan supply, China would have a very hard time on dealing with the Taiwanese, and if US is involved directly, that would basically change from bad to worse for the Chinese, so for China to have a probability to win, they have to be able to stop US from supplying Taiwan, and keep US out from the war directly at the same time. That is quite hard to pull off don't you think?

 

[lightning F57]

On the other hand, what would be the US and Japanese response? Because if US decided to run the blockade (they did before in Rio de la Plata and WW2) how are the Chinese Navy going to manage that? Do you fight the USN? Or spend more resource to play cat and mouse game with them?

I don't think your analogy works here, at that time the US was not dealing with a nuclear power that had over 350 ships and submarines and thousands different kinds of missiles, antiship, cruise, hypersonic etc.

Now, I can't tell you what the answer was, I can say this tho, there is a reason blockade won't usually works, especially when Taiwan is facing an open ocean on one side. The problem for the Chinese are two-fold, they have to deal with the American, whether how to stop them from supplying Taiwan, and how to keep them away from this war. Because I can tell you this, if US can keep Taiwan supply, China would have a very hard time on dealing with the Taiwanese, and if US is involved directly, that would basically change from bad to worse for the Chinese, so for China to have a probability to win, they have to be able to stop US from supplying Taiwan, and keep US out from the war directly at the same time. That is quite hard to pull off don't you think?

A blockade is definitely not going to be easy, we have seen with Ukraine Putin thought it will be a short war and its over a year in running now. But that will need to be their primary objective, deal with Taiwans surface fleet, get air superiority and blockade around Taiwans territorial waters. They would need to do that quickly before any potential aid can arrive. Although the mainland is allot closer to Taiwan than any US military base, whether they can pull that off in time remains to be seen. But equally the PLAN focusing bulk of their fleet around Taiwan will create lots of complexities for anyone trying to arm Taiwan as well.

Interestingly the war game conducted by Center for Strategic and International Studies stated this

"the US needs to fully arm Taiwan before shooting starts and jump into any conflict with its own forces immediately. There is no ‘Ukraine model’ for Taiwan,” the report said, referring to how US and Western aid slowly trickled in to Ukraine well after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor started and no US or NATO troops are actively fighting against Russia. Once the war begins, it’s impossible to get any troops or supplies onto Taiwan, so it’s a very different situation from Ukraine where the United States and its allies have been able to send supplies continuously to Ukraine,” said Cancian. “Whatever the Taiwanese are going to fight the war with, they have to have that when the war begins.”

Reality doesn't work as the above states. Taiwan needs to get stocked up with the right weapons now, cant really rely on stuff to come in.