China overwhelmed in Taiwan war scenario: simulation

[Skimming]

5 years ago, no one would even think about China being able to take on america. Yet now, we are discussing China in terms of being a superpower and being able to fight the americans in a meaningful manner. Shows how much progress america has made.

And Pakistanis will be fighting against Chinese colonizers in Pakistan.

 

[jhungary]

I don't think your analogy works here, at that time the US was not dealing with a nuclear power that had over 350 ships and submarines and thousands different kinds of missiles, antiship, cruise, hypersonic etc.

It works as long as US involvement, both direct and indirect would have impact the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Unless you don't agree US is to be dealt with and can just be ignore from the Chinese side on this occasion.

It really didn't matter how many ship China have or how many submarine China or whatever missile they have, you don't win a war just because of that, that's quite clear from the last 50 years or so of US adventure. I can tell you this, as a soldier who fought in a war, all those gadget (Missile, Plane, Ship etc) is good for the mouth, I can't even tell you how many times those stuff were absent when I need any of them on the ground, and you are talking about how US Military fight.

A blockade is definitely not going to be easy, we have seen with Ukraine Putin thought it will be a short war and its over a year in running now. But that will need to be their primary objective, deal with Taiwans surface fleet, get air superiority and blockade around Taiwans territorial waters. They would need to do that quickly before any potential aid can arrive. Although the mainland is allot closer to Taiwan than any US military base, whether they can pull that off in time remains to be seen. But equally the PLAN focusing bulk of their fleet around Taiwan will create lots of complexities for anyone trying to arm Taiwan as well.

Interestingly the war game conducted by Center for Strategic and International Studies stated this

"the US needs to fully arm Taiwan before shooting starts and jump into any conflict with its own forces immediately. There is no ‘Ukraine model’ for Taiwan,” the report said, referring to how US and Western aid slowly trickled in to Ukraine well after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor started and no US or NATO troops are actively fighting against Russia. Once the war begins, it’s impossible to get any troops or supplies onto Taiwan, so it’s a very different situation from Ukraine where the United States and its allies have been able to send supplies continuously to Ukraine,” said Cancian. “Whatever the Taiwanese are going to fight the war with, they have to have that when the war begins.”

Reality doesn't work as the above states. Taiwan needs to get stocked up with the right weapons now, cant really rely on stuff to come in.

Again, whether or not Blockade will work, it's unknown until it is actually in play, the problem I listed is the problem that exist on paper and right now if I am looking at the PLA force, I can't find any solution. I mean, the question is quite open, those question needs to be answered at least on paper before that operation can be succeed, but then, that would not be a concern on the other side, I mean, if Taiwan didn't want to fight and do a Afghanistan or unable to and perform like the Russian, then that question do not need to be answered, but again, we don't know because that too, have to be known until actual war happened.

What the CSIS studies said is true to any sense, because it is the bottom line, I mean, would you really want to depend on an uncertainty, it's actually saying if you started to resupply Taiwan now, then you don't even need to worry about Blockade, well, that's the ultimate answer, and as I said before, it would most likely happen if and when US feel that China is too far gone and an invasion is unavoidable, they will simply open their armoury and let the Taiwanese choose, and that time is probably 6 months to 1 year before China invade, Xi don't just wake up one morning and decide they should invade Taiwan...

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1644851730864111619

@beijingwalker

@F-22Raptor @Hamartia Antidote

 

[leviathan]

We can count but unlike you, we also consider other factors in war, such as weather. China have only two windows, March-Apr or Sept-Oct, and each window is about 2-3 weeks before the weather become too harsh to sail the invasion fleet. In Desert Storm, our air campaign was 40 days and that was our decision. China will not have that luxury.

Not only that, the 'tooth to tail' ratio T3R is unlikely to work for China. T3R means the ratio of support troops per combat troops. But if strait weather discourage or even outright prevent such support, an invasion is practically impossible.

Tooth-to-tail ratio - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Now, am a USAF guy, F-111 (Cold War) then F-16 (Desert Storm), so I will use the Vietnam War as example. Over Viet Nam, the US was numerically superior to the VPAF. So what the MIG-21s did was hit-and-run tactic. The MIGs would dive and shoot at the bomb heavy American fighter-bombers, compelling them to jettison their bombs so they could maneuver. It does not matter if the MIGs had any kills. Their missions were to discourage the Americans from delivering bombs on North Vietnamese targets, and the VPAF succeeded many times.

What make you think the Taiwanese cannot do the same to Chinese pilots? And how long do you think Taiwan can keep that up? Not only that, we are not talking about the ROCAF but also Taiwanese air defense missile batteries. The four-ship formation is combat tested. For every PLAAF four-ship flight, all Taiwan has to do is hit one to reduce combat effectiveness of the attackers. All Taiwan has to do is survive that 2-3 weeks window and with US support, they certainly will.

Yeah, Your 70 years old Vietnam War airpower doctrine is too old and boring...How about show us your latest SUPER Duper modern airpower doctrine, that make J-20 worthless. Please lecture me on that!!

 

[leviathan]

The only number different from my quote are J-16 which very much doubt that 300+ given they were just 2015, and sure, put another 100 Su-35 in the slot, you are still being outplayed by US by around 300 - 500 fighter



First of all, we are talking about a war in 2027, not today, as your quote suggested, those F-16V order would have been delivered by 2025.

You do know the Taiwanese had upgraded all their F-CK-01 to the newer C/D version , it wasn't the same F-CK-01 that was delivered back in 1990. The last one finished upgrade in 2018. So are they still junk? Maybe you can also call ROC Viper Falcon junk since the Taiwanese Viper were upgrade from Block 25.

Learn to count it right ~~ When you are counting none existing plane for a war in 2027. China somehow still using 2023 inventory??

When you talk about 2027! China will have another 150+ J20/J35 and 300 more J10/J16. China is currently building ~150 fighter each year!

You do know the Taiwanese had upgraded all their F-CK-01 to the newer C/D version , it wasn't the same F-CK-01 that was delivered back in 1990. The last one finished upgrade in 2018. So are they still junk? Maybe you can also call ROC Viper Falcon junk since the Taiwanese Viper were upgrade from Block 20.

What Upgrade? Did F-CK-01 C\D version upgrade it radar to ASEA? Did it upgrade to a military grade engine? Nope, still an old third generation garbage!

This is call upgraded! China will upgrade old j10A/J11A\B with ASEA radar and WS10 engine, that make it fire PL15and PL10 and will have better air combat performance then Taiwan's F16V from block20!

lol, you say that like the japanese are both incapable and unable to upgrade those aircraft.

Yes, You are correct, They don't have plan for that and nor do they capable.

Again, number is like arsehole, everybody has one, and what's more, the number I quote PLAF and the number you have a similar, and you want to know how US host 800 fighter in the area? Do you even know how many Airbase US had in the area between Japan, South Korea, Pacific (Guam, CNMI and so on) and Philippine?

Nope. Taiwan and Japan dont have one. You are quoting none existing 2027 planes vs 2023 PLAF planes.

how many Airbase US had in the area?You also need to count fighter that was not deployed to the immediate area (ie Japan, South Korea, US Pacific Territories and Philippine), but you can transport to and from that area easily, for example, Hicham Field in Hawaii is not immediately deployable in a war between China and Taiwan, but in a war that probably going to last more than 3 days, those aircraft can be ship to the frontline within 2 days timeframe, so if you have to count the US fighter aircraft AVAILABLE for this war, you will have to count US Air Base as far as in Singapore, Australia, Hawaii, or even Alaska or West Coast of the United States, because those fighter deployed in those field can be deployed to the frontline to replenish lost immediately. Those asset would have been used in the war.

I dont, But I know your Guam, CNMI's fighters will need refuing mutiple times to just have a round trip to taiwan airspace without loading any weapons. Good luck with you 800+ fighter fully loaded and fighting in the area...

it's the same when you count PLAAF, you don't just count the airbase next to or within 100 nmi of Taiwan, you count all their available air base in the general area, otherwise there won't be 500 J-10 or what have you for you to deploy... Or you really think you have 500 J-10 and 300 J-16 in the 10 or so airbase that is within striking distant on Taiwan?

You didn't know that PLAF have 500 J-10 and 300 J-16 in the 10 or so airbase that is within striking distant on Taiwan? My bad.. I thoguht you are

MILITARY PROFESSIONAL!​

 

[kris]

But in the moment of war, the shipyards won’t be relevant. It will be about the fleet they have. Which is why I don’t think they think they are ready, and won’t try till about 2035. At which point they will be preparing for the expected and developing munitions they think the US will use.

Where will they be repaired??

 

[beijingwalker]

 

[FuturePAF]

Where will they be repaired??

Repaired after a war or in smaller distributed shipyards along the coast, and not the large more famous shipyards

 

[jhungary]

Learn to count it right ~~ When you are counting none existing plane for a war in 2027. China somehow still using 2023 inventory??

When you talk about 2027! China will have another 150+ J20/J35 and 300 more J10/J16. China is currently building ~150 fighter each year!

Are you serious?

Do u think China will USE ITS ENTIRE stock to fight in Taiwan if those number are from 2023. Taiwan will but China won't

The number is 50% of projected fighter aircraft in 2027

China currently has 500-600 J-10, in 2027, they would have around 900-1000(@ 100 plus a year)
China currently has 300 J-16, in 2027, they will have around ~600 (@50-80 plus a year)

Hence 500 J-10 and 250 - J-16.

Jesus, try to make sense before you type.

What Upgrade? Did F-CK-01 C\D version upgrade it radar to ASEA? Did it upgrade to a military grade engine? Nope, still an old third generation garbage!

Sure, they upgraded them in 2018 and it still garbage.

I mean, if you want to believe that, go ahead.

This is call upgraded! China will upgrade old j10A/J11A\B with ASEA radar and WS10 engine, that make it fire PL15and PL10 and will have better air combat performance then Taiwan's F16V from block20!

Yes, You are correct, They don't have plan for that and nor do they capable.

Why not just say Japan and Taiwan will not be willing to fight? China win, zero men killed. Everybody happy. It's not about whether they would or have a plan, it's about their capability, I mean if you don't think both Taiwan and Japan have the CAPABILITY to upgrade their fighter or outright purchase older/newer model from the US, I mean, that's you.

Nope. Taiwan and Japan dont have one. You are quoting none existing 2027 planes vs 2023 PLAF planes.

I don't, again, you just didn't think.

I dont, But I know your Guam, CNMI's fighters will need refuing mutiple times to just have a round trip to taiwan airspace without loading any weapons. Good luck with you 800+ fighter fully loaded and fighting in the area...

What a stupid comment.

You don't armed those 800 fighter in and around from Guam, Hawaii or even Australia. You armed them in forward airfield and transport them from Guam or whatever, you don't go combat load when you fly from say "Singapore" to Philippine. You only need to ferry them and replace them with aircraft lost fighting the Chinese.

And how you need "Multiple" refueling to ferry from Guam to Philippine? It's only 1600 miles, Ferry range for F-16 is about twice that.

You didn't know that PLAF have 500 J-10 and 300 J-16 in the 10 or so airbase that is within striking distant on Taiwan? My bad.. I thoguht you are

MILITARY PROFESSIONAL!​

View attachment 924513

That's only mean you know shit about operational limits...

How are you going to put combat load on an aircraft from say Fushan? That's over 1000 miles, typical combat radius for aircraft is about 500-600 miles range, you don't send an aircraft outside that range on combat load trying to fight in an area 1000 mile from it.

The typical range for "Forward Deploy" airfield is within 100 nmi (or 260 miles) on your immediate area., Anything after that you will need refuelling to continue its range and then need to taken out once you expanded all your missile. Only airfield in those area are considered hot and conducting combat operation (rearm, refuel and repair).

You can use those airfield at rear work, not forward operation.

 

[leviathan]

Are you serious?

Do u think China will USE ITS ENTIRE stock to fight in Taiwan if those number are from 2023. Taiwan will but China won't

Why not? Is the j16 stationed in tibet refuse to ferry to fujian and attack? Do they afiraid of sea or something? If US can ferry their 800+ f15/f16 homeland defence jeft to fly half world and combat in taiwan airspace. What's blocking PLAF to do that with J10/11/16???

China currently has 500-600 J-10, in 2027, they would have around 900-1000(@ 100 plus a year)
China currently has 300 J-16, in 2027, they will have around ~600 (@50-80 plus a year)

Hence 500 J-10 and 250 - J-16.

Jesus, try to make sense before you type.

Where you saw I said 100@ J10 and 50~80@ J16 a year? Are you smoking and hallucinating?

“China will have another 150+ J20/J35 and 300 more J10/J16. China is currently building ~150 fighter each year!”

Sure, they upgraded them in 2018 and it still garbage.

I mean, if you want to believe that, go ahead.

Doesn't mattar when/what you upgrade on a F5 variant, it's still a garbage. Everyone know that.

Why not just say Japan and Taiwan will not be willing to fight? China win, zero men killed. Everybody happy. It's not about whether they would or have a plan, it's about their capability, I mean if you don't think both Taiwan and Japan have the CAPABILITY to upgrade their fighter or outright purchase older/newer model from the US, I mean, that's you.

lol, you say that like the japanese are both incapable and unable to upgrade those aircraft.

When is pruchase new fighter become capablity to upgrade aircraft?? If so, every contry is capable!
How many fighrter taiwan\Japan built this year so far?? ZERO!
How many fighrter taiwan\Japan built in pass five year?? ZERO!
How many fighrter taiwan\Japan build in next five year?? ZERO!

What a stupid comment.

You don't armed those 800 fighter in and around from Guam, Hawaii or even Australia. You armed them in forward airfield and transport them from Guam or whatever, you don't go combat load when you fly from say "Singapore" to Philippine. You only need to ferry them and replace them with aircraft lost fighting the Chinese.

And how you need "Multiple" refueling to ferry from Guam to Philippine? It's only 1600 miles, Ferry range for F-16 is about twice that.

What forward airfield? The forward airfiled in taiwan that been bombed dozen time? Any base that been hosting jef to fight PLAF will be targeted!

That's only mean you know shit about operational limits...

How are you going to put combat load on an aircraft from say Fushan? That's over 1000 miles, typical combat radius for aircraft is about 500-600 miles range, you don't send an aircraft outside that range on combat load trying to fight in an area 1000 mile from it.

The typical range for "Forward Deploy" airfield is within 100 nmi (or 260 miles) on your immediate area., Anything after that you will need refuelling to continue its range and then need to taken out once you expanded all your missile. Only airfield in those area are considered hot and conducting combat operation (rearm, refuel and repair).

You can use those airfield at rear work, not forward operation.

What a stupid comment.

You don't armed those 800 fighter in and around from Fusan, Shanghai or even Tibet. You armed them in forward airfield and transport them from Fusanor whatever, you don't go combat load when you fly from say "Tibet" to Fuzhou. You only need to ferry them and replace them with aircraft lost fighting the Taiwan.

 

[jhungary]

Why not? Is the j16 stationed in tibet refuse to ferry to fujian and attack? Do they afiraid of sea or something? If US can ferry their 800+ f15/f16 homeland defence jeft to fly half world and combat in taiwan airspace. What's blocking PLAF to do that with J10/11/16???

Why not US just send all 1600 F-16/F-35/F-15 to Taiwan then??

Are you for real that dumb or you are just pretending??

Where you saw I said 100@ J10 and 50~80@ J16 a year? Are you smoking and hallucinating?

“China will have another 150+ J20/J35 and 300 more J10/J16. China is currently building ~150 fighter each year!”

Dude, when did I say those number come from you?

That J-16 number come from this article.

Zhuhai Airshow display reveals info on China’s J-20, J-16 inventory

The presence of J-20s on static display at the show has allowed photographers to obtain better resolution images of the aircraft than previously possible.

www.defensenews.com

Meanwhile, the J-16 on static display this year carried the construction number “1105″ on the outside of its air intakes. According to Rupprecht, this indicates the aircraft was the fifth one of the 11th production batch.

He added that Shenyang Aircraft Corp., which manufactures the J-16, uses a more straightforward construction number and production batch system, with each batch numbering 24 aircraft. This means the aircraft at the show — which is assigned to the 172nd Air Brigade of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force — is the 245th production J-16.

The article was written in 2022 considering J-16 was in Production 2015/2016, that's 6 years, 11 batches each batch produce 24 aircraft, it does not take a math genius to get 2 batch per year, that's 48 (the low limit) and where the high limit is you get 3 batch a year, which make 74, hence 50-80 depends on the month that batch was made.

The J-10 number is echoing someone said here about 100-140 a years

Doesn't mattar when/what you upgrade on a F5 variant, it's still a garbage. Everyone know that.

Again, you can go believe that if you want, I have no problem for you to think that

When is pruchase new fighter become capablity to upgrade aircraft?? If so, every contry is capable!
How many fighrter taiwan\Japan built this year so far?? ZERO!
How many fighrter taiwan\Japan built in pass five year?? ZERO!
How many fighrter taiwan\Japan build in next five year?? ZERO!

What does that even proof? They didn't buy or build anything this year or in the next 5 years (I appaude your ability to see into the future by the way) and automatically equate to they can't get or upgrade their aircraft??

What the hell kind of logic is that?

If Taiwan or Japan wants, they can just buy the surplus F-16 Viper the USAF is retiring, or does that mean they can't build anything this year (or next five year, if you can see into the future like you claim)??

Dude, what you are saying is illogical, Australia didn't building build any fighter since 1952 and they are not going to build anything in the last 50 year or in the next 5 year,s when they build the Canberra Electric, does that mean Australia have no way to get any fighting in the last 72 years?? I am sorry, I don't realise RAAF does not actually exist...

What forward airfield? The forward airfiled in taiwan that been bombed dozen time? Any base that been hosting jef to fight PLAF will be targeted!

Sure, you can use airfield in Tibet to attack Taiwan..........

What a stupid comment.

You don't armed those 800 fighter in and around from Fusan, Shanghai or even Tibet. You armed them in forward airfield and transport them from Fusanor whatever, you don't go combat load when you fly from say "Tibet" to Fuzhou. You only need to ferry them and replace them with aircraft lost fighting the Taiwan.

Dude, this is exactly what I said.

You count the aircraft from outside forward operational area as replacement, that's why in US term, even airfield as far as Hawaii can be used to support this war, but that's just about it, you can use those airfield to support this war, you cannot flty combat sorties from anything outside the 100nmi area, which only limited your choice of airfield.

You get that idea for PLAAF but you don't for the USAF and whatever, I don't know if you are stupid or pretend to be. But seeing you say Japan did not buy anything in the last 5 years means they can't in the next 5, I would say you are genuinely stupid.

 

[silverox]

I never read leading articles published by Japanese or American think-tanks whose purpose is to confuse and disorient the opponent.

We just have to do what we think is right, produce more and more advanced weapons, and make any adversary pay an unbearable price for their bad decisions.

Find a suitable historical opportunity, find a reason, you can directly send troops to recover Taiwan.

I have been advising the Chinese government to shoot down Ms Tsai's plane directly after Tsai Ing-wen's visit　usa 屙, but no one listens to me