China overwhelmed in Taiwan war scenario: simulation

[luciferdd]

As I mentioned before, this war (If this ever happened) is going to depends on who have more disposable aircraft.

Many people think this war is going to be decided with Chinese 5th Gen v US/JPN 5th Gen, but as my own wargame turns out, this war is largely depending on who have more F-16s, J-10s and Other legacy fighter rules the Skies, because at best, US and Chinese 5th gen cancelled each other out, then we will start venturing into Drone and Legacy fighter category. The problem is, China lead slightly ahead of drone, but lagging behind largely by 4th gen fighter they can muster. Which would be a problem because Fighter can kill drone, while the other way does not really works.

So what you have is around 600 Gen 4 Chinese fighter (J-10/J-11) against 1000-1200 Legacy US/JPN/ROC fighter (F-16, F-2, F-15C, F-15E, F-CK-1), those thing can drop bombs and do CAP and also do naval interdiction with Harpoon and whatever JASDF/ROCAF version of Harpoon). That is going to break the Chinese Fleet back in my own war game. That's why I can't venture off 250 nm from Chinese coast because outside that, my Carrier Aviation aren't really enough to protect me from all those threat,

beside those 600+ J10A&J11B/BH/BS/BSH，PLAF also have 200 J-11AorSu30MKI，600+J-10C/J-16 and the number is still growing fastly(50 or more J10CorJ16 every year)

 

[jhungary]

beside those 600+ J10A&J11B/BH/BS/BSH，PLAF also have 200 J-11AorSu30MKI，600+J-10C/J-16 and the number is still growing fastly(50 or more J10CorJ16 every year)

Well, traditional estimate there are around 500 J-10 of all variant in service with PLAF and around 180 J-16, (I mistyped as J-11 in my original post) and J-11 are too old to consider effective, if I have to count them, then I would also need to put Japan F-4EJ Kai and ROCAF F-5E Super Tiger/Mirage 2000 in play, that would negate that advantage.

Oon the other hand, Taiwan have around 200 F-16V, ~100 F-CK-1, JASDF have around 170 F-15J and around 90 F-2A, plus US have around 200-250 F-15/F-15E Strike Eagle, with around 500-600 F-16 in that area, that alone would have posted around 1100-1200 4th gen legacy fighter, excluding Naval Aviation.

Which mean you are talking about 400-600 advantage, on the other hand, all involving party also building new fighters, US is adding around 140 F-35 every year since 2021, Japan is getting around 140 F-35 in coming years and Taiwan is buying F-16V and they are also making new indigenous fighters plus will probably receive older F-16 from USAF boneyard stock. So if you add those number up, Chinese growing fleet advantage would also be negated.

 

[FuturePAF]

I doubt they can do 140 J-20 a year. That's a lot even for the USAF point of view, and you are talking about 5 Gen stuff, as my brother points out, that's not building a model car, it takes something very precise to fabricate and assemble. I mean LM which have 5 decade of fighter manufacture experience can only ramp that up to 143 a year, I don't see how China can jump from around 80 a year to 140 a year. I don't know, maybe they can. It just didn't sound like a probable number for me.

But anyway, 076 wouldn't do much on sea interdiction unless they can make a version of jump jet like AV8/Harrier or F-35B so by 2027, PLAN would only be looking at 2+1 carrier force, that is not going to be enough especially if US Navy and JMSDF are involved, that would bring 2 Fleet Carrier and 4/6 (depends on whether the JMSDF can convert the 2 Izumo before said war break out. And that is before US reinforce the 3rd Fleet with 7th Fleet and most likely 5th Fleet, if that happens, the sea outside Taiwan strait is going to be closed to China.

If China wants to retake Taiwan, PLA would want to keep it between Taiwan and China, but in reality, that's not really possible even US did a Ukraine on Taiwan (Just send stuff, not directly involved) because Taiwan would make this fight a lot harder and unlike Ukraine, Taiwan would probably have carte blanc on anything US can spare, and not just send over piece meal like they did with Ukraine. If US and Japan were not directly involved, then it will all depends on how long China can sustain the attack, because it would be a multi-year affair. If the Chinese can hold on even with sanction and US and possible EU equipment transfer, then PLA would win such a war, but it would have to be with very heavy casualty.

My reference for the assessment that China could produce 140/yr up from the current 60-70 a year.
27:55-31:30

As for the Type 076 it could probably be build across multiple shipyards, and the PLAN probably feels it could therefore risk losing them. The air wing wouldn’t be a STOVL aircraft but drones for A2G and probably the J-35 for A2A.
2:20-6:38

So, IMHO, a half dozen shipyards building 2-4 Type 076 at the same time over 12-18 months is not implausible, once the PLAN is satisfied with the EMALS technology and the J-35. Then afterwards, if the need is still there a further number of Type 076 could be built.

Currently there is supposedly a second type 003 under construction and by 2026, the nuclear powered CVN Type 004 is expected to go into production.

 

[jhungary]

My reference for the assessment that China could produce 140/yr up from the current 60-70 a year.
27:55-31:30

As for the Type 076 it could probably be build across multiple shipyards, and the PLAN probably feels it could therefore risk losing them. The air wing wouldn’t be a STOVL aircraft but drones for A2G and probably the J-35 for A2A.
2:20-6:38

So, IMHO, a half dozen shipyards building 4-6 Type 076 at the same time over 12-18 months is not implausible, once the PLAN is satisfied with the EMALS technology and the J-35. Then afterwards, if the need is still there a further number of Type 076 could be built.

well, I don't know, but that video seems too much like propaganda to me. I mean, could they build 140+ a year in near future? Sure, everything is possible, but that video did not convince me that they do more than just "They will have that capability" So I would take that video with a giant grain of salt.

On the other hand, my brother works for Boeing, so I inclined to defer to his judgement.

The problem with 076 is, large ship like this need's protection, you can build 5 or even 10 Type 076, but then you have to ask yourselves, did their ability on controlling the battlefield deserve that support? I mean sure, if you are talking about the initial stage when you launch an offshore amphibious invasion, the more 076 the better with well deck and air assault element, that is necessary for the initiate beachhead invasion, but after that, again, unless you can launch VOTL from that 076, it does not works any more than offshore supply ship, unless you are talking about some type of Operation Sho-Go stuff where the Chinese lure the American on chasing the 076 hull and do a center force strike the Taiwanese. That is not going to do anything.

Why risk a 076 for A2A when you can just send in Destroyer + Sub to do the job, 076 without VTOL wouldn't give them edge over doing them.

076 won't play a serious role in that war after the initial invasion, and I would have (and did) position them along Taiwan Strait and act as offshore support ship instead of using them offensively.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

TOKYO -- If Japan and the U.S. were to become involved in a conflict between China and Taiwan, they would be able to prevent Beijing's takeover of the island, but at a heavy cost to their military personnel and equipment, think tank simulations show.

A tabletop wargame conducted by Japan's Sasakawa Peace Foundation showed Japan losing as many as 144 fighter jets, with Self-Defense Forces casualties reaching up to 2,500. The U.S. could lose up to 400 jets with over 10,000 soldiers killed or wounded. But China would fail to seize control of the island.

The exercise imagined a cross-strait crisis in which China attempts an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in the year 2026. The simulation was conducted over four days through Jan. 21.

The roughly 30 participants included former Japan Self-Defense Force officers as well as academics and researchers from Japan and the U.S.

The war game pitted the Chinese against Japanese, U.S. and Taiwanese forces. The Chinese military established a command center for the Taiwan front capable of deploying all air, submarine and surface vessel capabilities. The U.S. military responded by sending nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and state-of-the-art fighter jets to areas in and around Taiwan.

In Japan, the prime minister declared a national state of emergency and agreed to allow the U.S. to use SDF bases as well as civilian airports in Okinawa and Kyushu.

In the event of a real Taiwan conflict, Japan could invoke the right to collective self defense and send personnel to team up with the U.S., even if Japan did not come under direct military attacks from China.

In the exercise, Japan designated the conflict as an "existential threat" after learning that China was planning to attack SDF bases being used by the U.S. military.

Maritime Self-Defense Force warships, along with the fleet of F-35 fighters in the Air Self-Defense Force, took part in missile attacks against Chinese forces.

China was eventually overwhelmed by the U.S.-Japan response, with the conflict ceasing in a little over two weeks. China's military supply was cut off, and the final blow came when the coalition took control of airspace over Taiwan.

All told, China lost 156 warships, including two carriers, along with 168 fighter jets and 48 military transport aircraft, according to the scenario. More than 40,000 soldiers were killed or wounded.

The takeaway was that although a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan was thwarted, it came at heavy human and material costs to the self-governed island, the U.S. and Japan.

Taiwan saw 13,000 soldiers dead and wounded in the conflict, including prisoners of war, and lost 18 warships and 200 warplanes. U.S. casualties added up to 10,700 people, with the loss of 19 ships and 400 warplanes.

The JSDF lost 15 vessels and 144 fighter jets, including F-35s and F-2s. Japanese bases were targeted by China, resulting 2,500 casualties among SDF personnel. Civilian casualties ranged from a few hundred people to more than 1,000.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, also conducted a series of tabletop exercises last year that simulated a cross-strait conflict in 2026.

According to findings, released in January, China fails to successfully invade Taiwan in most of the 24 scenarios, but it comes at a substantial cost for Japan, as it loses over 100 warplanes and 26 warships in the base scenario.

Both the Sasakawa and CSIS exercises are premised on today's arsenals and capabilities in 2026, meaning an actual outcome in 2026 could be different if China significantly boosts its military power.

China is pursuing a rapid military buildup, and some experts say the military balance in the Western Pacific region will favor the country in 2025. In particular, China is racing to build up its arsenal of nuclear weapons.

The U.S. currently possesses 3,800 nuclear warheads to China's 350, according to last year's annual white paper by Japan's Ministry of Defense. On the other hand, China has 278 medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles that can target Japan.

The U.S. does not possess those missiles because it is party to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

"We must make every possible preparation for substantial losses while we still can," said Tsuneo Watanabe, senior security fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

Furthermore, China is making advances in information warfare, space development and cyber warfare.

"In the exercise, China tried everything it could to avoid war with the U.S.," said Watanabe. "There's the risk China might try to unify with Taiwan without any physical military conflict."

Japan could lose 144 fighter jets in Taiwan crisis: simulation

U.S.-Japanese alliance would prevent Chinese takeover but at a high cost

asia.nikkei.com

5 years ago, no one would even think about China being able to take on america. Yet now, we are discussing China in terms of being a superpower and being able to fight the americans in a meaningful manner. Shows how much progress america has made.

 

[FuturePAF]

well, I don't know, but that video seems too much like propaganda to me. I mean, could they build 140+ a year in near future? Sure, everything is possible, but that video did not convince me that they do more than just "They will have that capability" So I would take that video with a giant grain of salt.

On the other hand, my brother works for Boeing, so I inclined to defer to his judgement.

The problem with 076 is, large ship like this need's protection, you can build 5 or even 10 Type 076, but then you have to ask yourselves, did their ability on controlling the battlefield deserve that support? I mean sure, if you are talking about the initial stage when you launch an offshore amphibious invasion, the more 076 the better with well deck and air assault element, that is necessary for the initiate beachhead invasion, but after that, again, unless you can launch VOTL from that 076, it does not works any more than offshore supply ship, unless you are talking about some type of Operation Sho-Go stuff where the Chinese lure the American on chasing the 076 hull and do a center force strike the Taiwanese. That is not going to do anything.

Why risk a 076 for A2A when you can just send in Destroyer + Sub to do the job, 076 without VTOL wouldn't give them edge over doing them.

076 won't play a serious role in that war after the initial invasion, and I would have (and did) position them along Taiwan Strait and act as offshore support ship instead of using them offensively.

The Type 076 will be most important and helping to secure and defending a beachhead until airfields and ports can be secured to allow independent resupply. Currently I think China is unable to feel secure it will be able to pull off an invasion with its current force, so it will wait till after 2035, when enough equipment and training is in place to increase their chances. Further, I suspect if an invasion was imminent, we would see an increase in landing craft production as well as helicopter production. That is why I think if any of these preparations re being made it is in small batches all I’ve the country, in volumes that the PLA hopes goes un-noticed similar to fissile production in the lead up to the PLA expanding the size of the ICBM force.

A lot of the equipment China has produced is brand new, and will take time to be absorbed and to become familiar to enough of the force. IMHO, 2027 is an overly ambitious time frame, while 2035 is a more realistic one. Although, if it’s a personal decision by President Xi; to see the invasion during his premiership, anything is possible.

 

[Ich]

LOL "tabletop"

 

[beijingwalker]

Not all Taiwan population are against reunification with the mainland, once a war breaks out, many Pro China Taiwanese will be fighting from the inside, Communists just used 3 years to take over whole China, much due to lots of KMT troops and commanders switched side.

 

[F-22Raptor]

The Type 076 will be most important and helping to secure and defending a beachhead until airfields and ports can be secured to allow independent resupply. Currently I think China is unable to feel secure it will be able to pull off an invasion with its current force, so it will wait till after 2035, when enough equipment and training is in place to increase their chances. Further, I suspect if an invasion was imminent, we would see an increase in landing craft production as well as helicopter production. That is why I think if any of these preparations re being made it is in small batches all I’ve the country, in volumes that the PLA hopes goes un-noticed similar to fissile production in the lead up to the PLA expanding the size of the ICBM force.

A lot of the equipment China has produced is brand new, and will take time to be absorbed and to become familiar to enough of the force. IMHO, 2027 is an overly ambitious time frame, while 2035 is a more realistic one. Although, if it’s a personal decision by President Xi; to see the invasion during his premiership, anything is possible.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643776136734969856

By the 2035, the US will have enormous stockpiles of missiles and munitions. Land and antiship stocks will likely be 20,000+.

B-21, NGAD, etc will all be in production. China will be facing a VERY advanced US force.

 

[Destranator]

While simulated war gaming is fun, the reality is China has no real need to take Taiwan by force. It has strong economic relations with the island - it is not worth disrupting that with a war.

Also, occupying Taiwan by force would I've rise to mass uprising in Taiwan - the insurgency would bleed China for decades.
China is better off gradually buying up Taiwanese politicians and making Taiwan China-friendly.

 

[FuturePAF]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643776136734969856

By the 2035, the US will have enormous stockpiles of missiles and munitions. Land and antiship stocks will likely be 20,000+.

B-21, NGAD, etc will all be in production. China will be facing a VERY advanced US force.

True, but if they wanted to, they too could ramp up production. An old fashion arms race. I saw a debate in the 80s with senator Patrick Moniyhan where he estimated the soviets were going to 12,000 nukes. When the cold war ended we found out the Soviets had 40,000 nukes compare to the US’ 25,000.

I think China has more stockpiles then they are letting on.

 

[F-22Raptor]

True, but if they wanted to, they too could ramp up production. An old fashion arms race. I saw a debate in the 80s with senator Patrick Moniyhan where he estimated the soviets were going to 12,000 nukes. When the cold war ended we found out the Soviets had 40,000 nukes compare to the US’ 25,000.

I think China has more stockpiles then they are letting on.

The problem for China is the US can unload huge salvoes on Chinese ships and naval yards, and the US submarine force is by far the most advanced in the world. China will lose a huge amount of naval ships and capacity to produce more. Thereby defeating its ability to subdue Taiwan.

 

[jhungary]

Not all Taiwan population are against reunification with the mainland, once a war breaks out, many Pro China Taiwanese will be fighting from the inside, Communists just used 3 years to take over whole China, much due to lots of KMT troops and commanders switched side.

You do know those are just a small portion of Taiwanese (Less than 10%), and most likely will be imprisoned and interned, if not shot out right if and when China invaded, much like how China cramp down on Pro-Democratic fraction in Hong Kong and China.

I mean if you are really thinking of "Fifth Column" in Taiwan would means a lot of Taiwanese will be defected, that probably would be a very long wait.

 

[Sandwalk]

Seems unrealistic.
Simply because Chinese mainland is just a few miles from Taiwanese border. Which means PLA can launch volleys after volleys of rocket shells, cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles from its vast arsenal.
Same cant be said for Japan or USA.

 

[jhungary]

The Type 076 will be most important and helping to secure and defending a beachhead until airfields and ports can be secured to allow independent resupply. Currently I think China is unable to feel secure it will be able to pull off an invasion with its current force, so it will wait till after 2035, when enough equipment and training is in place to increase their chances. Further, I suspect if an invasion was imminent, we would see an increase in landing craft production as well as helicopter production. That is why I think if any of these preparations re being made it is in small batches all I’ve the country, in volumes that the PLA hopes goes un-noticed similar to fissile production in the lead up to the PLA expanding the size of the ICBM force.

A lot of the equipment China has produced is brand new, and will take time to be absorbed and to become familiar to enough of the force. IMHO, 2027 is an overly ambitious time frame, while 2035 is a more realistic one. Although, if it’s a personal decision by President Xi; to see the invasion during his premiership, anything is possible.

The key issue here is not secure the beach head, but rather how you can penetrate Taiwanese defence., security only matter if you can gain the foothold, and you can't penetrate modern defence with just putting men ashore Normandy Style. The only way to do that is to master the art of combine warfare. ie, the Chinese need to fulfill the following requirment all at the same time.

1.) Interdict Taiwanese resupply route sing air power
2;.) Protect your own supply line using sea power.
3.) Continuously bring the men onshore.
4.) Provide support to your ground troop onshore using both Air and Sea power.
5.) Provide ISTAR Target solution on all priority targeting.

You need to be able to preform all 5 to be able to secure the beachhead nowadays, if and when one of them failed, you will fail the landing. On paper, China have the required equipment to do the job, but then so we can say the Russian in Ukraine, and then Russia has been to war a few time before, China had none, and a land invasion is a lot less complicated than an amphibious landing, it's like asking China who had no real war experience at all to try on a Normandy style landing. A lot of things can go wrong.

Once we can deal with that, then we can start talking about how to secure the beach head, which is another set of problem altogether.

On the other hand, I don't think pushing the invasion later is more favorable to the Chinese, unless you are saying there is a real chance Chinese military power will be a lot more powerful than the US and EU combine, because from all the rhetoric, we can see a lot of support from both US and EU on Taiwan lately, which mean they will most likely back Taiwan in a fight with China, and that mean what China is dealing with is not just Taiwan itself, but the deep pocket of the US and EU, again, Taiwan unlike Ukraine, US and EU are probably more than willing to give them a blank cheque on whatever they want and will give them great number, I mean, if US cannot see a way out of a war between Taiwan and China, they will probably go mountain and sea to protect Taiwan, stealth technology or even NGAD will probably on the table for Taiwan. Because there would be no point on pleasing China on not to invade, by withholding those if they think the Chinese mind was made up.

So the later the invasion will almost certainly complicate the invasion on Chinese part. It only give Taiwan and its allies more time to prepare.