China-India Standoff 2020 - Outcome

[Jackdaws]

And.....?



At this point, it is not the defensible nature of the position that matters, only its propaganda value. What is going on is, I believe, known in some circles to the west of where I live as noori kushti. There will be a lot of posturing, some loud bellowed threats, chest puffing, thigh smacking, what General Gul Hassan described as 'eye exercises', and so on. Violence has little or no place in these Peking Opera scenarios.

It ties in with your narrative that China just is overall unhappy with many Indian actions.

 

[Nilgiri]

It ties in with your narrative that China just is overall unhappy with many Indian actions.

Despots are always unhappy with stuff outside their control or influence.

Old as time.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Despots are always unhappy with stuff outside their control or influence.

Old as time.

They tend to get petulant about these uncontrollables. Unfortunately, since they wield a lot of power, their petulance sometimes have real-world effects that are unpleasant.

 

[GeraltofRivia]

The current standoff was triggered by India’s construction of roads and air strips along LAC, which China regards as a threat to its position and an act to change status que. In a way, it is the continuation of the “Forward Policy” that Nehru has championed in the 60’s, which lead to the 1962 border war and resulted in a decisive Indian defeat.

On the other hand, there always seem to be a bit of disconnection in the generations of Indian leadership when dealing with China in the sense that the later generations tend to ignore the old lesson that their predecessors have made and went down the same path that tripped the earlier generations.

In term of Indian leadership’s strategic intent in this provocation, I think there are 3 possible elements:
1. To dissolve internal discontent and solidify political position
2. To demonstrate its value to US that it is a valuable player in the region and is critical in their containment strategy.
3. Soildify its position at LAC and seek opportunity to push forward its terrestrial boundary.

I do think that there is a high threshold of going into a hot war, particularly for a large country like China. US would love to see it. Indian leadership is aware of that and is testing China’s threshold of resolve, possibly Doklam standoff providing them some guidance. The thing is that the threshold can change. What is unthinkable in the past could be thinkable now.

I sense a feeling from various commentators that nothing serious will happen except for fistfight as there’s too much economical stakes at hand for China to give up, which is not untrue as China has invested heavily in India and India is a major and growing market for Chinese products. This is probably also one of the consideration that Indian leadership is having and provides them the confidence that the conflict will not be escalated into the same scale as in the 60’s. Another factors like potential US involvement are also mentioned.

However I think people make dangerous assumption that China will not respond with a strong military mean simply because of trade and economical stakes. When another nation is seen as breaching into China’s national boundary and threaten its security, economic consideration becomes secondary and it would not be shy away from using military mean, everything from a limited conflict to prolong war. This is not an empty statement, there have been a few cases in the last 7 decades to demonstrate this pattern of response. US made the same assumption that China would not react strongly when they pushed toward China Korea border. India had also made that assumption in the 1962 conflict. We knew what happened in both occasions.

What worries me is that the current pandemic and US reactions at large may have reduced China’s threshold considerably. China could use this opportunity to send a strong message to US and other hostile forces by escalating it into a hot war if Indian leadership continues the provocation. Sometimes giving war and showing strength can play effective role in strategic intent.

In the 50’s and 60’s, China was a hurt beast and was busy healing its deep wound from decades of fighting with Japanese and civil wars. If China could raise and fight US to a draw back then, there is no question that it will do it again with its shining new paws and teeth. I hope Indian leadership does notice them. If not, it is our fault of hiding them too deeply.

 

[serenity]

Again not just Pakistani members talking this drama up like many Indian members correctly identified. Also many Indian members partaking in media talks. For reasonable members the first thing we should find out is whether or not some claims by media are true. Since Chinese media is quiet on details except in saying this area's dispute is flaring, the opera performance is done by India. If truly this whole thing is about CCP requiring distraction like some people claim here then how come there is almost no drama in China about this. We don't know if it is India going into Chinese claimed territory or even recognized territory or China doing that to India, or both doing this in different sections of this area. This is the most important fact to establish first before any more conclusions like who is performing what opera for what purpose.

It can also be said that this drama is played up by Modi for many different reasons and perhaps even to make it seem like China has invaded when really it is India. Or maybe the opposite and to play down the Chinese invasion. We don't even know answer to question 1 at the moment and Indian media has reported things like 5000 or now I read some 10,000 PLA soldiers near border and in areas should be Indian territory. And then more India based reports showing this is totally inaccurate and there's some satellite picture claims from who knows what time. So perhaps with this much mess, it's better to just wait for more information with better details and corroborating information from many sides more than just one.

 

[drunken-monke]

The current standoff was triggered by India’s construction of roads and air strips along LAC, which China regards as a threat to its position. In a way, it is the continuation of the “Forward Policy” that Nehru has championed in the 60’s, which lead to the 1962 border war and resulted in a decisive defeat.

In another way, there always seem to be a bit of disconnection in the generations of Indian leadership when dealing with China in the sense that the later generations tend to ignore the old lesson that their predecessors have made and went down the same path that tripped the earlier generations.

In term of Indian leadership’s strategic intent in this provocation, I think there are 3 possible elements:
1. To dissolve internal discontent and solidify political position
2. To demonstrate its value to US that it is a valuable player in the region and is critical in their containment strategy.
3. Soildify its position at LAC and seek opportunity to push forward its terrestrial boundary.

I do think that there is a high threshold of going into a hot war, particularly for a large country like China. US would love to see it. Indian leadership is aware of that and is testing China’s threshold of resolve, possibly Doklam standoff providing them some guidance. The thing is that the threshold can change. What is unthinkable in the past could be thinkable now.

I sense a feeling from various commentators that nothing serious will happen except for fistfight as there’s too much economical stakes at hand for China to give up, which is not untrue as China has invested heavily in India and India is a major and growing market for Chinese products. This is probably also one of the consideration that Indian leadership is having and provides them the confidence that the conflict will not be escalated into the same scale as in the 60’s. Another factors like potential US involvement are also mentioned.

However I think people make dangerous assumption that China will not respond with a strong military mean simply because of trade and economical stakes. When another nation is seen as breaching into China’s national boundary and threaten its security, economic consideration becomes secondary and it would not be shy away from using military mean, everything from a limited conflict to prolong war. This is not an empty statement, there have been a few cases in the last 7 decades to demonstrate this pattern of behavior. US made the same assumption that China would not react strongly when they pushed toward China Korea border. India had also made that assumption in the 1962 conflict. We knew what happened in both occasions.

What worries me is that the current pandemic and US reactions at large may have reduced China’s threshold considerably. China could use this opportunity to send a strong message to US and other hostile forces by escalating it into a hot war if Indian leadership continues the provocation. Sometimes giving war and showing strength can play effective role in strategic intent.

In the 50’s and 60’s, China was a hurt beast and was busy healing its deep wound from decades of fighting with Japanese and civil wars. If China could raise and fight US to a draw back then, there is no question that it will do it again with its shining new paws and teeth. I hope Indian leadership does notice them. If not, it is our fault of hiding them too deeply.

We also know what happened in 1967, don't we?

 

[Eagle_Nest]

https://www.facebook.com/

The line is very clear!

 

[tanlixiang28776]

We also know what happened in 1967, don't we?

I made this post 4 years ago and its just as true today

Been debunking it so often i just quote myself now.

Oh i actually went to wikipedia to see the changes made on the Chola incident. Heres the page from 4 years ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nathu_La_and_Cho_La_incidents&oldid=479366958

I was wrong only 23 casualties.

to this page now

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathu_La_and_Cho_La_incidents

There is now 1041 casualties with of course massive casualties on the Chinese side lol. That is a 4500% increase in just 4 years. By me calculations there should be 46845 casualties in 4 years. This of course would mean that incident now "war" would be about 5 times bigger than the actual Sino Indian war. But no doubt this will be parroted by the Indians very soon without question.

Source: https://defence.pk/threads/why-china-want-arunachal-pradesh.463339/page-5#ixzz4UrOCrHz0

Source: https://defence.pk/threads/indian-a...n-china-gen-rawat.470492/page-6#ixzz4WJIHG0jP

Its truly astounding how every boasting Indian comes back to this made up garbage they concocted 4 years ago as some kind of national point of pride.

Truly hilarious that the Indians most powerful military action vs China is some Wikipedia page they cultivate and change every single day.

Keep trying to change history kids and history will keep repeating.

I am curious how many times i will use this quote before this garbage finally stops. Doesn't look like anytime soon with people as delusional as this.

You know I actually read about the incident before the idiots modified the Wikipedia page and after. How do Indians really expect people to take them seriously vs China when history for them can be modified so blatantly to feed nationalistic delusions.

Literally the only thing that triggers me enough to post these days is when some retard decides to bring up the 1967 events like its real.

And the truly damning thing is 4 years ago this wasn't even a thing. Any Sino Indian War discussion would be Indians admitting that they lost but saying that we betrayed them with a surprise attack. Thats at least an reasonable argument in some regards.

However after all this history altering Indians have this sense of false bravado vs China where they think could win easily or something. This is the exact thing China expected though of course as the Veterans of the 1962 war would be dead at this point so we only expected peace for so long. What the leaders probably didn't expect was that not only was history forgotten but its being changed by buffoons on the internet and not very sneakily either.

Indians always say that 1962 is ancient history. But heres the thing. China at that time was as weak if not weaker than India at that point economically with similar if not worse military gear. Chinas best troops had to be stationed vs the Soviet Union after the Sino Soviet Split. China is in a far better position now then when it fought India last.

Man you guys just cannot stop lying even if you get caught like a million times can you.

Sorry we're not too good at winning wiki wars thats an Indian specialty

 

[Foxtrot Delta]

They said they will come and take azad kashmir or gilgit instead chinese cake and took ladakh

I told everyone its time india starts loosing territories they have been oppressive they will loose npt only kashmir but much more when both india and china attack as a combimed arm.

 

[Mohsin A]

 

[Nefarious]

These are major wake up calls to the fascist government of India. First wake up was surprise day...I remember even here Indians before surprise day wanting to teach Pakistan lessons with mini awacs etc...this event was the first major cooler.

Now we see India again recently (1 year of wound healing later) dreaming of AK and GB I think finally China had enough of their shit and just gave a lil poke.

The best self assurance they can come up with regards to this China stand off is there will be no war. Of course there won't... You wouldn't dare fire a bullet toward China even with them encroaching where you stand.

Hindutva is discombobulated. LOCLAC syndrome.

 

[Ace of Spades]

Low quality analysis... Reminds me of typical Indian:-

Pigeon crossed indian border , News plastered all over media

Big daddy China comes in , typical indian makes thousands of excuses and trivializes the matter.

I understand the pain of some here and can imagine the excruciating pain they are suffering from, in regards to this not very new situation that's developing; those have done nothing on PDF but to put up a show for "past" "historical" rhetoric. You can talk with such individuals all day long about how India did good in 65, 71, 99 and they will keep shedding their wisdom feathers. But when it comes to analysis on past two decades, they bury the head in the sand because it doesn't suit their narrative. Pakistani members here should always keep that in mind and don't fall in to this trap which is rhetorical and was designed "for truck ki bati" @PanzerKiel. Now that members starts to deconstruct it, you can imagine the pain, years of narrative building down the drain.

What happened in past two decades? Pakistan came out of terrorism which was indian sponsored / supported, and they all day long here on PDF were analyzing how Pakistan can fall, Pakistan defeated their puppets and proxies within and in neighborhood successfully, countered their plans with respect to Kashmir. They had successfully buried Kashmir cause, but it sprung out again; even with a greater push. And now in their country, a fascist is governing. Brought by people in government who believe in RSS ideology, radicalism is skyrocketing in India, lynching and persecution has became new norm. Internationally i have discussed in detail in previous post; a shame is what became their fate.

Hence my friend; the pain. And i advise to not put too much attention to those rhetoric, of course they will downplay everything. A drowning man is a very desperate man and will do anything to stay afloat...

 

[StormBreaker]

Certainly, a good dissection of the stealth expansion of a certain narrative by the know propagators. And it is equally important to keep lay it bare so that the YoungPak posters and some older hands come out and take the wool from their eyes!


Now to the topic at hand... The Fundamental Question remains: Why did China move men and material in this manner? And why now?

Unlike us, the Chinese are neither impulsive nor reactive... even when the surface it might appear that they are 'reacting'....

Perhaps, are reframing of the Question: What benefits does China get from this 'Demonstration' of Activism in Ladakh?

Certainly, it is NOT to divert attention from internal matters of PRC, including HongKong... if anything... such an Activism is bound to get the very bad press of Evil Empire 2.0 ...

The road construction by the Indians in disputed areas is not new or just happened last week... the Chinese do have Eyes-in-the-Sky for all their borders... including IoJK.

Hence, they knew what was happening there all the time.

Sikkim 'stand-off' and the valiant Indian junior officier ...punched a 'Big Chinese Major' ... according to Indian news.... but this cann't be a compelling reason for PLA Ladakh Action...

Now the Indians are trying to find 'diplomatic' solutions...while building up their strength in the stand-off area... so far nothing in terms of forward progression....

It is rather difficult to believe that the PLA will move in Ladakh to stop the Indian Agression againt AJK/GB... there are other ways too...and less visible ones... for now we need to take this hypothesis out of the equation.

Yes, India would require a massive FalseFlag or two to create the internal outrage and context for War ....and PMIK tweeting or SMQ tweeting ... was good counter offesnive to stop that for a while... but as @Irfan Baloch has highlighted that there is 'sudden' surge of Terrorism Against Pakistan within OurLand.... apparently, sleeper-cells or other assets are being activated... Hybridwar on Pakistan continues!

@masterchief_mirza Deconstructing the PLA movement in Ladakh is critical to get a feeling of the Overall Chinese Objectives ... despite the good Indians saying about the recognition of Taiwan/discarding OneChinaPolicy ... or blocking the entering/movement of PLAAN in AfroAsian/AfroPakOcean.... perhaps, the good Indians are overestimating themselve a bit too much...

Even if the US recognises Taiwan... it won't make a difference to overall PRC Planning....

Without Sikkim China can forget ever getting South Tibet back ... also, China wants India to be out of Bhutan...which essentially is an Indian colony...where Indians lord over them....also, too close to Tibet for comfort.

Is it Possible that the Chinese had/have Intelligence that the ModiRegime was/is going to unilaterly delcare LAC as International border, hence, having no disputed territory with China?

Is it possible that PLA moving in Ladakh was/is a Pre-emptive move to Demonstrate that Ladakh is a disputed territory between Indian and China and that the Aug5 stunt by ModiRegime is immaterial for the Chiense?

Unlike Doklam... the Chinese media is mute almost... asking India to respect the Chinese territory..and move back...but rather understated...but Intl. Media and IndianMedia is playing it up. Why?

After such a move...PLA just moving back will be not only Loss of Face for the PRC but also will limit effectiveness of any future Activism.

So, what it is that China wants from this PLA Activism in Ladakh?

If PLA can take over the Lake.... it already is overlooking SriNagar!!!

@Ace of Spades @StormBreaker @Blacklight if you recall our discussion of Tibet being Palm of China!!!

Now the POTUS has let the entire planet known that there is a stand-off and he can Mediate....

I think he is pulling off the same trick he pulled off on PMIK! Trump is NOT Stupid!!!


Mangus

I am overjoyed by the developments

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

I understand the pain of some here and can imagine the excruciating pain they are suffering from, in regards to this not very new situation that's developing; those have done nothing on PDF but to put up a show for "past" "historical" rhetoric. You can talk with such individuals all day long about how India did good in 65, 71, 99 and they will keep shedding their wisdom feathers. But when it comes to analysis on past two decades, they bury the head in the sand because it doesn't suit their narrative. Pakistani members here should always keep that in mind and don't fall in to this trap which is rhetorical and was designed "for truck ki bati" @PanzerKiel. Now that members starts to deconstruct it, you can imagine the pain, years of narrative building down the drain.

What happened in past two decades? Pakistan came out of terrorism which was indian sponsored / supported, and they all day long here on PDF were analyzing how Pakistan can fall, Pakistan defeated their puppets and proxies within and in neighborhood successfully, countered their plans with respect to Kashmir. They had successfully buried Kashmir cause, but it sprung out again; even with a greater push. And now in their country, a fascist is governing. Brought by people in government who believe in RSS ideology, radicalism is skyrocketing in India, lynching and persecution has became new norm. Internationally i have discussed in detail in previous post; a shame is what became their fate.

Hence my friend; the pain. And i advise to not put too much attention to those rhetoric, of course they will downplay everything. A drowning man is a very desperate man and will do anything to stay afloat...

EXCELLENT TOP CLASS Analysis!

 

[Anik101]

China&India are fighting together against #COVID19 & we have an important task to consolidate relations. Our youth should realise the relation between China & India, the 2 countries are opportunities for each other and pose no threat: Chinese Envoy to India, Sun Weidong(file pic)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1265595032125333504

Realization of "Dragon and Elephant dancing together" is the only right choice for China and India, which serves the fundamental interests of our two countries and two peoples: Chinese envoy
@China_Amb_India

https://twitter.com/x/status/1265614611891576833

Breaking: Chinese envoy
@China_Amb_India
says need to enhance strategic mutual trust and never let differences shadow bilateral cooperation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1265600854519959553

India was firm and patient in Dolam, issuing just two statements. China on the other hand, went berserk, threatening India through its media and think tanks. Think. Even this time India issued one statement. It is China which has said talks have begun!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1265615130252857345

2 minutes silence for those who were predicting India China War...LOL...