Raphael
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http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2017/06/09/india-should-expect-a-china-japan-reset/
The Modi government, which began its diplomatic activities three years ago by eulogizing the prospect of an Asian Century, has lost the plot. The Asian Century is forging ahead for sure, but sans India. Japan, which was regarded by PM Modi as India’s ideal partner in the Asian Century, is seeking a collaborative partnership with China. This is the indication available from a major international conference hosted in Tokyo on June 5-6 under the rubric ‘Future of Asia’.
The theme of the conference was “Globalism at a crossroads: Asia’s next move” and the sub-plot that inevitably took the centre-stage of the demi-official event was all about Japan and China setting aside their historical distrust and current rivalry to lead Asia in tandem towards greater integration. In his keynote speech at the conference, Singapore’s powerful Emeritus Senior Minister, Goh Chok Tong urged: “If Japan-China relations can move towards greater trust and cooperation, there will be a mutually-reinforcing effect on the other key bilateral relationships in the region.”
Goh said there is a need to build greater interdependence among Asian countries and China and Japan should take the lead as Asia’s top two economies. Interestingly, Goh lauded the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as fine examples of how Asia can build interdependence, champion free trade and further the integration process.
India did not figure in Goh’s road map, since TPP excludes India, while India is a reluctant participant in the RCEP (unlike the rest of Asia which is raring to go) and India outright boycotted the BRI forum in Beijing last month. However, it was the inaugural address at the Tokyo meet on Monday by the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that should make Delhi sit up.
Abe announced that Japan is ready to cooperate with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which he lauded for its “potential to connect East and West as well as the diverse regions found in between.” Abe spelt out certain conditions – OBOR should be in harmony with “a free and fair Trans-Pacific economic zone”; infrastructure development should be based on procurement that is transparent and fair; projects should be economically viable and should not harm the debtor nations’ finances. But he made it clear that Tokyo is “ready to extend cooperation.”
The Japan-China relations seem to be heading for a makeover. A new momentum has been steadily building up in the recent weeks. For a start, Toshihiro Nikai, secretary-general of Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party who is known for his pro-China stance, attended the BRI forum in Beijing last month and was received by President Xi Jinping. Xinhua reported that Xi took note that Japan has “clearly affirmed the (Belt and Road) initiative”. (Nikai handed over a “personal letter” from Abe.) A fortnight later, China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi visited Tokyo and met Abe to follow up on the “important guiding opinions on Sino-Japanese relationship” that Xi had earlier conveyed through Nikai.
All in all, Beijing has been quick on its feet to warmly respond to Abe’s path-breaking speech in Tokyo on Monday. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson said:
Curiously, Japan’s scepticism over the BRI is similar to India’s but its approach is radically different. Abe did the right thing by deputing Nikai as his special envoy to attend the BRI forum meet with the expectation that he could build on the overture – potentially leading to a summit meeting with Xi. As things stand, a Sino-Japanese summit seems to be within the realms of possibility. Whereas, India turned down the Chinese invitation. If for Delhi, the boycott of the Beijing meet highlighted its “muscular diplomacy”, Tokyo was pragmatic and kept in view the “big picture” of the imperatives of a reset of ties with China.
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Who could have seen this coming, even two years ago? For us India has fast become our most critical and abhorrent rival, perhaps on par with the US. It has overtaken Japan on our levels of antipathy - now we regard Japan as like Australia, a country whose politics are venal and base, and whom we should keep at arms length, but whom we can nonetheless do business with.
I think the reverse is true for Indians too, that Pakistan has become a sideshow and China has become the main target.
The Modi government, which began its diplomatic activities three years ago by eulogizing the prospect of an Asian Century, has lost the plot. The Asian Century is forging ahead for sure, but sans India. Japan, which was regarded by PM Modi as India’s ideal partner in the Asian Century, is seeking a collaborative partnership with China. This is the indication available from a major international conference hosted in Tokyo on June 5-6 under the rubric ‘Future of Asia’.
The theme of the conference was “Globalism at a crossroads: Asia’s next move” and the sub-plot that inevitably took the centre-stage of the demi-official event was all about Japan and China setting aside their historical distrust and current rivalry to lead Asia in tandem towards greater integration. In his keynote speech at the conference, Singapore’s powerful Emeritus Senior Minister, Goh Chok Tong urged: “If Japan-China relations can move towards greater trust and cooperation, there will be a mutually-reinforcing effect on the other key bilateral relationships in the region.”
Goh said there is a need to build greater interdependence among Asian countries and China and Japan should take the lead as Asia’s top two economies. Interestingly, Goh lauded the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as fine examples of how Asia can build interdependence, champion free trade and further the integration process.
India did not figure in Goh’s road map, since TPP excludes India, while India is a reluctant participant in the RCEP (unlike the rest of Asia which is raring to go) and India outright boycotted the BRI forum in Beijing last month. However, it was the inaugural address at the Tokyo meet on Monday by the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that should make Delhi sit up.
Abe announced that Japan is ready to cooperate with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which he lauded for its “potential to connect East and West as well as the diverse regions found in between.” Abe spelt out certain conditions – OBOR should be in harmony with “a free and fair Trans-Pacific economic zone”; infrastructure development should be based on procurement that is transparent and fair; projects should be economically viable and should not harm the debtor nations’ finances. But he made it clear that Tokyo is “ready to extend cooperation.”
The Japan-China relations seem to be heading for a makeover. A new momentum has been steadily building up in the recent weeks. For a start, Toshihiro Nikai, secretary-general of Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party who is known for his pro-China stance, attended the BRI forum in Beijing last month and was received by President Xi Jinping. Xinhua reported that Xi took note that Japan has “clearly affirmed the (Belt and Road) initiative”. (Nikai handed over a “personal letter” from Abe.) A fortnight later, China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi visited Tokyo and met Abe to follow up on the “important guiding opinions on Sino-Japanese relationship” that Xi had earlier conveyed through Nikai.
All in all, Beijing has been quick on its feet to warmly respond to Abe’s path-breaking speech in Tokyo on Monday. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson said:
- We have noted the statement by Prime Minister Abe. In the course of developing the Belt and Road, China is committed to establishing a set of fair, reasonable and transparent rules for international trade and investment together with countries along the routes… The Belt and Road is an important international public goods, and an open and inclusive development platform, creating benefits for countries around the world including Japan. All parties are equal in terms of participating in, contributing to and benefiting from the Belt and Road. We believe that this initiative can serve as a new platform and test field for mutually beneficial cooperation and common development of China and Japan, and welcome Japan’s discussion with us on conducting cooperation within the Belt and Road framework… Chinese side attaches importance to and stands ready to improve its relationship with Japan… We have noted the remarks of Japan and hope that the Japanese side can translate their remarks and wishes about improving relations with China into concrete policies and actions.
Curiously, Japan’s scepticism over the BRI is similar to India’s but its approach is radically different. Abe did the right thing by deputing Nikai as his special envoy to attend the BRI forum meet with the expectation that he could build on the overture – potentially leading to a summit meeting with Xi. As things stand, a Sino-Japanese summit seems to be within the realms of possibility. Whereas, India turned down the Chinese invitation. If for Delhi, the boycott of the Beijing meet highlighted its “muscular diplomacy”, Tokyo was pragmatic and kept in view the “big picture” of the imperatives of a reset of ties with China.
-----------------------
Who could have seen this coming, even two years ago? For us India has fast become our most critical and abhorrent rival, perhaps on par with the US. It has overtaken Japan on our levels of antipathy - now we regard Japan as like Australia, a country whose politics are venal and base, and whom we should keep at arms length, but whom we can nonetheless do business with.
I think the reverse is true for Indians too, that Pakistan has become a sideshow and China has become the main target.