China in doldrums after Xi fiasco: China's finance giant MISSES payments

[ProudThamizhan]

Lets be a little fair here. The Chinese have done well this past decades and have improved their peoples living standards alot..However, they are just following their East Asian peers trajectory and trying to catchup. So it would have been an exception if all East Asian countries are wealthy, industrialised and developed meanwhile China is still poor and a peasant country. So it was a exception then not the norm, reason i believe China would have still develop with or without CCP ruling the country. If all Chinas East asian/sinosphere peers were poor and backward then i would have said yes CCP did something extraordinary, but its not the case. They were actually quite late to the party. Lol

Moreover, India is still far behind China in development, living standards etc to be honest..i have been to both countries so canvattest to that. So not sure about your point about laughing at their poverty rate.

While material progress is very visible we cannot not ask the question what are you prepared to forego for it and for how long.
Poverty , whether Chinese or Indian or American is no laughing matter .
The entirety of my reactions have been anger at those that laugh at poverty .

That and me aside, just like it has been important for India to understand that a transition from 10% mitigated socialism to 50% mitigated socialism is required for the next leg of progress , China is at the inflection point as well. They fully capitalised on Walmart order phase and vaulted into a much higher economic and technological tracks from there albeit suppressing human rights. But lately (xi’s last 5 years or so ), probably triggered by his legacy thoughts, they have made such big mistakes that one has to be in awe ! They actually fought against publushing true Covid data , didn’t give a damn about concentration camps, openly disappeared HK dissidents , stopped a solution to crazy NK, …all for what ? None of that helped China , it was just Xi ready to lose two eyes uf the enemy would lose one.

Centuries of Chinese wisdom down the drain with a decade of Xi ego

 

[GreatHanWarrior]

LMAO, So you mean Xi Jinping is giving such grants only to foreign black students not other foreign students as well? Lol

Plus, please i hope you dont live in China? Else be careful about making fun of and calling your president names online. You don't want to get in trouble dude..not worth it..

so. do you think of in mainland China. Some people still say "I love Xi Jinping"?

 

[indushek]

Many economist I followed had actually pointed out how the economy in China now compare to the time the subprime mortgage hit US economy in 2008. There are quite a lot of similarity between the 2, both countries are at high debt cycle, both countries had experience properties boom, and both countries refused to spend money other than infrastructure project.

I think the the entire borrowing habit for China is to blame, the stimulus package post financial crisis and post COVID is just a tip of the iceberg. The problem lay into the entire banking sector was ladened with properties loan, mortgage and so on, they weren't at all effectively clearing other loan that would otherwise stimulate business activities in other sector, and that is the issue here.

A lot of people blame many different things, I tend to blame the Chinese dream of being the leading manufacturer hub in the world spell their demise in financial sector, they have simply overdone that and the big honcho simply wouldn't listen, Jack Ma already had warned that Chinese banking and financial system of it's "Pawnshop" mentality which peg money into actual goods as this is what most manufacture based economy operate on. The problem is, you can only deal with building and building for a while until either the land is too expensive to build on or they simply run out of option, what jack Ma said is China should invest in innovation because innovation is free (I mean not monetary) and you have nothing attach to it, which mean you can expand without costing you anything. Instead of listening to what Jack Ma said, they disappeared him....

Which they did and began BRI, which too is now in doldrums.

Interestingly the podcast I listened to said that, Japan reached nearly 80% of US's GDP per capita (not the GDP figure as it is), before it entered the lost decades mode. He says Chinese followed lot of Japanese methods or growth models, but only went hyper there with over capacity.

He also said the US has the advantage of having a currency, that is mostly used as negotiable instrument across the world. Besides that they also possess most of the IP on cutting edge tech, even if its produced in the East. So they have managed to move along even after tripping with GFC, and Chinese don't have that advantage with yuan. Again it now makes sense as to why Russia and China (and India to some extent), are pushing for a alternate to USD.

He basically says this is the start of lost decades for China similar to Japan

They will demolish them and build over them again

The Balance sheet though , will show numbers of 2000 under assets once they are rebuilt. A large expense probably under the head renovation might be shown as well. Win win

 

[GreatHanWarrior]

Don’t worry our @GreatHanWarrior plays GleatHanWalliol only when safe

Of course. I am very safe. Because xi is in the Indian sewer!

Hmmm...im not sure about that. I have never heard a Chinese person mentioning that.

Of course. What you see is always the "foreigners love China" video uploaded by Beijingboy.

but. Guess why foreigners love China?

 

[jhungary]

Which they did and began BRI, which too is now in doldrums.

Interestingly the podcast I listened to said that, Japan reached nearly 80% of US's GDP per capita (not the GDP figure as it is), before it entered the lost decades mode. He says Chinese followed lot of Japanese methods or growth models, but only went hyper there with over capacity.

He also said the US has the advantage of having a currency, that is mostly used as negotiable instrument across the world. Besides that they also possess most of the IP on cutting edge tech, even if its produced in the East. So they have managed to move along even after tripping with GFC, and Chinese don't have that advantage with yuan. Again it now makes sense as to why Russia and China (and India to some extent), are pushing for a alternate to USD.

He basically says this is the start of lost decades for China similar to Japan


The Balance sheet though , will show numbers of 2000 under assets once they are rebuilt. A large expense probably under the head renovation might be shown as well. Win win

Well, if you look at the Real GDP value and you can spot one thing.

China actually has a similar outlook with the US on the Real GDP number, both are overvalued by 20% (China Real GDP is about 83% of their nominal GDP and the US is about 80)

Problem is, Chinese currency is deflated, Yuan is believed to be seriously undervalued while US posted that number with 5% (or 5.5% I forgot) inflation. So by that mean Chinese Real GDP should be MORE, not less than the nominal GDP, Which is a very alarming thing if you couple that with the debt to GDP ratio, that mostly because to stay competitive, China would need to devalue their currency so it helps with exporting, but the problem is, that would mean local demand spike, that's what the number come from, while at one hand, you have an artificially created rate and on the other you don't have enough currency to go around. As they said what come up must come down, China cannot devalue their currency forever and if by then the financial system still has not fixed or have not rotate into more innovative based economy, then when it eventually exploded, it will make Japan hyperinflation back in the 90s looks like child play........

 

[Menthol]

Actually, not just that, the debt problem and the traditional saving habit also put stress on Chinese economy. That's the direct contribution to the Chinese National debt to GDP ratio.

I can write a whole paragraph on how or what causes that, but in a TL;DR version, China borrowed too much money during the industrialisation and instead of putting those investment in a money generating scheme (ie fintech or banking industry, and I know It sounded like its a scam), China put the investment in the lowest return investment as possible. Which is they started using those loan to build infrastructure, so roads, airport, properties and etc.

The problem is, this is a sinkhole for cash and the longer it gets into deeper debt because infrastructure are not liquid asset. You cannot turn an airport into cash overnight. And now that price now is in a breaking point, and China does not have a good lending/banking system to back that up (Bear in mind China international credit rating is only A-, compared to US AA+ which literally have more debt and more Debt to GDP ratio) and AAA+ to most European countries.

That is the gist of the problem.

Infrastructure is essential to the economy.

On paper it's not a high return investment, even a loss. But in bigger view, the whole economy is depending on it. The other investments are depending on it.

Perhaps building too much is the problem, because infrastructure is a liability instead of an asset, because there is cost to maintain it.

Yes, the other problem with China is the lack of vision on how important the service industry is, like investment and stock market.

Chinese leaders are mostly traditional economists who are just understand that the economy is all about producing good instead of multiplying money.

China GDP is being calculated based on the industrial 'inputs' and 'outputs'.

 

[jhungary]

Infrastructure is essential to the economy.

On paper it's not a high return investment, even a loss. But in bigger view, the whole economy is depending on it. The other investments are depending on it.

Perhaps building too much is the problem, because infrastructure is a liability instead of an asset, because there is cost to maintain it.

Yes, the other problem with China is the lack of vision on how important the service industry is, like investment and stock market.

Chinese leaders are mostly traditional economists who are just understand that the economy is all about producing good instead of multiplying money.

China GDP is being calculated based on the industrial 'inputs' and 'outputs'.

Infrastructure is vital for industrial support, and in this stage, Industrial support is vital for Chinese economy, that does not mean infrastructure is essential for economy, again, once the factory started to close down, what are you going to do with the roads, port, freight rail and airport?

That's the problem from day 1, while a moderation of infrastructure never hurt anyone, the problem is you still need to follow the sustainable model where you can cope with the development. You don't base the industrial input with infrastructure building....

 

[mike2000 is back]

so. do you think of in mainland China. Some people still say "I love Xi Jinping"?

Ahahah...well, of course not everybody likes him. But almost nobody dares call him names publicly or online like you did here. Im just saying id you are in China doing that then be very careful. However if you are abroad then its ok, little to no risk doing that. Depends on where you live?

 

[GreatHanWarrior]

Ahahah...well, of course not everybody likes him. But almost nobody dares call him names publicly or online like you did here. Im just saying id you are in China doing that then be very careful. However if you are abroad then its ok, little to no risk doing that. Depends on where you live?

I do this all the time. You think I've been doing this lately? No one cares. I guess even xi doesn't care... Because anyone knows... It's time to end this game.

 

[epebble]

China Evergrande files for Bankruptcy​

China Evergrande seeks Chapter 15 protection in Manhattan bankruptcy court

China Evergrande , which is the world's most heavily indebted property developer and became the poster child for China's property crisis, on Thursday filed for protection from creditors in a U.S. bankruptcy court.

www.reuters.com

 

[retaxis]

Ahahah...well, of course not everybody likes him. But almost nobody dares call him names publicly or online like you did here. Im just saying id you are in China doing that then be very careful. However if you are abroad then its ok, little to no risk doing that. Depends on where you live?

I am sure you know more more about China than Chinese living there same as a Chinese living in China knows more about UK life than you would. Level of ignorance x 1000 everyday lol

 

[SaadH]

Actually, China "eliminated" poverty by moving the poverty line lower, notice that the Chinese count their poverty line by PPP instead of GNI medium. Long story short, the reported poverty line for China as per Chinese government is at $2.6 a day. While world bank put the number to be $5.5 a day using GNI per capita instead of PPP. Nobody in the world uses PPP per capita to measure poverty, because $1 earn is not $1 in PPP term......

So $1 buys the same amount of food in US as it does in China?

 

[jhungary]

So $1 buys the same amount of food in US as it does in China?

You need to go back to my post. I was talking about Absolute poverty.

It's the same standard across the world $1.9 in low income countries $3.6 for medium to low income and $5.5 for medium income

Definition of absolute and relative poverty - Economics Help

Definition of absolute poverty and relative poverty. Also definition of primary and secondary poverty and multidimensional poverty indexes.

www.economicshelp.org

Absolute poverty could be set at a constant real income level, e.g. real income of $500 per year. However, it would have to take into account different living standards between countries. $500 would be insufficient to gain shelter in New York, but maybe in Africa. The UN summit on poverty called for countries to develop their own measure.

Which mean it does not matter if $1 spend in US is different than $1 spend in China. That only matters if you are talking about relative poverty. Which is again, as I said pointless.

 

[migflug]

Urumqi has several train stations, here is a big one

View attachment 946161

Chinese infrastructure is miraculous, everyone knows that. But there are also other sectors in the economy, which seems to be weakening. Especially now that the population is ageing, the consumption can not be increased, in my view the current decade may be the highest consumption in the Chinese economy, and since it produces far more than it can consume along with the de-globalization war started by USA & its allies( near-shoring), its going to be a difficult issue for China to handle. As many economists says, China's issues are structural, not a seasonal one.

 

[Stranagor]