Date Posted: 14-Jul-2011
China's top general confirms 'carrier killer'
J Michael Cole Correspondent = Taipei
General Chen Bingde, the People's Liberation Army Chief of General Staff, provided the first official confirmation on 11 July that China is developing the Dong Feng DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM).
The DF-21D (CSS-5 Mod-4) has caused concern in US intelligence circles as it would provide China with an anti-access, area denial capability in the West Pacific. US officials believe it could limit the movements of the US Seventh Fleet if it was sent to assist Taiwan in a conflict with the mainland.
While confirming its existence, Gen Chen cautioned that the DF-21D was still in development. "The missile is still undergoing experimental testing and will be used as a defensive weapon when it is successfully developed, not an offensive one," he told reporters.
Gen Chen added that to be deployed the DF-21D "requires funding inputs, advanced technology and high-quality talented personnel ... these are all fundamental factors constraining its development".
Gen Chen did not mention any range for the missile. The state-owned China Daily reported on 11 July that the DF-21D had a range of 2,700 km, but assessments by the US Office of Naval Intelligence last year put it at about 1,500 km.
Jane's has learnt that the reference to 2,700 km was added by China Daily staff and is not corroborated by other Chinese reporting on the DF-21D.
ANALYSIS
Although doubts remain over whether the DF-21D is nearing deployment, Andrew Erickson, Associate Professor of Strategy at the US Naval War College, said it was unlikely Gen Chen would have spoken publicly if the PLA was not "confident that it was maturing effectively and already had reached the necessary development level to begin to credibly shape regional strategic thinking in Beijing's favour".
A source with intimate knowledge of Chinese missile development told Jane's that Gen Chen's caution might tone down rhetoric that has grown up around the DF-21D.
"This suggests the programme might not be going as smoothly as hawkish China watchers might expect, and certainly the technical difficulties are legion for a country that doesn't even have a global positioning system in place yet ... which would be essential for the guidance of such missiles to target," the source said. "Apart from the missile itself, a whole host of other technologies would need to be in place, such as over-the-horizon radar."
Gen Chen's comments come during the visit to Beijing of Admiral Mike Mullen, the first Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff to visit China in four years. The timing echoes that of the unveiling of the Chengdu J-20 fifth-generation fighter prototype in January, which coincidentally occurred during a visit by then defense secretary Robert Gates.
"I think Chen wanted to let the US know that China is indeed developing effective ways to counter US 'hegemonism' in the Pacific, but without making it sound too threatening, hence the caveat on the difficulties in its R&D," the source said.