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China has a long way to go

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For all those people who think China will soon become a superpower.
It has a loooong way to go!
Same for India.
JAPAN is far ahead of these two nations and if any nation which will become a super power any soon is JAPAN

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Despite the government's hype, China has a long way to go to reach prosperity



China claims that its economy is growing at a rate of 10 percent to 11 percent a year, and China's official analysts say that their country will catch up with the United States long before the 22nd century arrives. Don't believe it.

First, let's deal with the implausibility of the official Chinese statistics. Mathematically, if the overall economy were to grow 10 percent annually, and the 70 percent of the economy that is based in rural areas was not growing, as stated by the Chinese government, the economy in Chinese cities would have to be growing by 33 percent a year. The urban economy is growing rapidly, but not at a 33 percent pace.

Furthermore, Chinese statistics conflict with those of Hong Kong, the semiautonomous territory that serves as the financial capital of much of southern China. In 2001, Hong Kong had a recession, which is to say that it reported that its gross domestic product fell.

Guangdong, the adjacent Chinese province, reported that its GDP in 2001 grew 10 percent.

What are the chances that this number is correct? Very slim.

Economic growth rates can be inferred from electricity consumption.

In every country in the world, electricity use has generally grown faster than the gross domestic product. Electricity is necessary for nearly all productive activities, and because of inefficiencies, the consumption of electricity has generally outstripped economic growth. Rising energy costs have resulted in more efficient use of electricity, but especially in the developing world, economic growth has still generally lagged behind growth in electricity.

But if China's official numbers are to be believed, there are provinces in China where the GDP has been growing faster than energy use. That is unlikely, since the government's statistics also say that energy use per unit of gross domestic product is going up - not down, as claimed in provincial GDP statistics.

Among the world's 12 most rapidly growing economies during the past 10 years, the gross domestic product has grown only 45 percent as fast as electricity consumption. In the early 1970s, Japan was shutting down its electricity-guzzling aluminum industry. During this period, the gross domestic product grew 60 percent as fast as electricity consumption, the highest recorded level among industrialized countries.

Using those numbers as a guide, if we consider China's actual electricity use, which is relatively easy to measure, and do a little math, we come up with this estimate: The GDP in China has been growing somewhere between 4.5 percent, using the average for a rapidly growing country, to 6 percent a year, using the highest rate for Japan, not at the 10 percent rate claimed in official statistics.

The official statistic for China's overall growth rate is best regarded as an approximate growth rate of the economy of its cities.

China also claims that it will catch up with the United States and become the world's largest economy well before the turn of the next century.

There is an equally simple reason that neither of these predictions is likely to be realized. It simply takes more than 100 years for a large, less economically developed country to catch up with the world leader in per capita income.

One need look only at the history of the United States, which had a much higher growth rate than Britain in the 19th century, yet did not catch up until World War I. Or consider Japan and the United States.

Now, about 150 years after Japan started to modernize during the Meiji restoration, Japanese per capita GDP is still only 80 percent of that of the United States in terms of purchasing power parity - although, in nominal terms, it has caught up.

The United States is not standing still. In fact, its per capita income grew faster than nearly all other big countries from 1990 to 2007. Europe's per capita income fell from 85 percent of that of the United States in 1990 to 66 percent in 2007, according to International Monetary Fund statistics.

So let's say that the inflation-adjusted growth rate for China is 4 percent a year. This is optimistic, because China will certainly have some bad years in the next century. Every country does - remember the Great Depression in the United States. A 4 percent rate is faster than any big country has ever grown for 100 years. But assume that China can do it. Assume, too, that the United States grows at the 3 percent rate it has averaged for the past 15 years.

Now project the two growth rates forward: the inflation-adjusted per-capita GDP of China would be less than $40,000 in 2100, versus almost $650,000 in the United States. That's because China starts at $1,000 per capita and the United States at $43,000. If, in 2100, China has four times as many people as the United States, as it does now, China would still not have a total GDP equal to that of the United States.

But it is unlikely to have four times as many people. It is always a mistake to project population growth rates for a century, but let's do it anyway: With a one-child policy and a sex ratio that favors boys (many men won't find wives), China should experience a decline in population in the 21st century.

Yet let's assume for a moment that the population of China remains constant, at 1.3 billion.

If immigration to the United States continued at the current rate, the U.S. population would rise. If the population grew at 1 percent a year, as it has recently, it would more than double by 2100, reducing the enormous population gap between the two countries. Are these projections likely to be realized? Who knows?

What is clear is that China is unlikely to surpass the United States in GDP in absolute or relative terms anytime soon.

There may be a Chinese century, but it will be the 22nd century - not the 21st.

Lester Thurow is a professor of management and economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is also on the board of Taiwan Semiconductor, which does business in mainland China.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/20/business/worldbusiness/20iht-econview.4.7188362.html

As I See Japan...from L.A.: China has a long way to go
 
So when China releases its growth percent, do not completely believe it.
As per New York Times.
 
yeah u r rite china has a long way to go, we even got to play catch up with india.
india will be the next super power military as well as economicly.
:wave::wave:
 
^^ Yawn. You'll always have a contrarian or two. Doesn't change anything. Meanwhile:

China surpasses Japan as the 2nd largest world economy

MUAH!
INDIA has a bigger economy than spain, switzerland,scotland,england etc.
So is it better than these nations?
Get some sense.
Chinese Per capita is too low to make it a super power.
Per capita gives u the idea of a normal chinese life.
CHILL!
India has the 4th largest ,GDP PPP
Soo being 2nd largest doesn't mean its going to be a super power any soon.
 
yeah u r rite china has a long way to go, we even got to play catch up with india.
india will be the next super power military as well as economicly.
:wave::wave:

Better read the post carefully
Did i say India will be the next super power.
Japan is the next one.
Stop day dreaming.
:lol:
 
MUAH!
INDIA has a bigger economy than spain, switzerland,scotland,england etc.
So is it better than these nations?
Get some sense.
Chinese Per capita is too low to make it a super power.
Per capita gives u the idea of a normal chinese life.
CHILL!
India has the 4th largest ,GDP PPP
Soo being 2nd largest doesn't mean its going to be a super power any soon.

The tone and (lack of) quality of your response tells me there is no real discussion to be had here.

Ponder the fact that the Chinese have a massive footprint and excellent diplomatic relations with two dozen countries in Africa. They have become exclusive military suppliers to much of Africa, in fact. Angola is selling 100% of their oil to China. China is perhaps the single most influential global power in Africa today. This points to the fact that Chinese diplomacy is truly global.

Ponder the fact that China is exporting weapons with no strings attached to key middle eastern states like Egypt. They have a good relationship with Iran and Syria, while they also maintain cordial relations with the Saudis, UAE and others. They are becoming a key military supplier to the middle east and Egypt is looking to become the third participant in the JF-17 project by setting up a manufacturing facility. They already manufacture K-8s under license. China is replacing the former USSR and the US wherever it makes inroads in the Middle East.

Ponder the fact that China is developing global power projection weapons, such as satellite killers, BMs with aircraft carrier kill capability, significant submarine forces based on ever more silent designs to the extent that one of them surfaced amidst a USN exercise without being detected. They have three carrier projects in the works and that's just the beginning. Unlike the IN which is trying to develop a greater footprint in the Indian Ocean, the Chinese are developing a Navy that takes them far beyond. Read some of the analysis written around the time that the Chinese deployed their ships under the guise of the Somali pirate "policing" role. They will project naval power globally. No question.

The Chinese have a far superior ballistic missile and nuclear program - third only to the Russia and the US. Their space capabilities are going to exceed the Russians within the next few years as they land men on the moon. Their GDP has exceeded Japan's and their growth is the fastest in the world. Their ring of pearls strategy has won favour with almost all their neighbours other than India. Their influence in SE Asia continues to grow. They influence Australia through commerce, demographics and raw military force. If you look at the Australian discourse on this subject, they are essentially becoming resigned to China dominating them strategically.

Look up the last copy of Foreign Affairs; check out the map that shows Chinese influence extending essentially to all of Asia, including Australasia. This is reality.

With all of this, China's ability to globally project its diplomatic, economic and political muscle already positions it as a nascent super power. It will emerge as the strongest super power tomorrow. No question. There are contrarians, as I said, but better to look at reality and develop an appreciation for facts than allow yourself to be taken in by baseless idiocy...
 
The tone and (lack of) quality of your response tells me there is no real discussion to be had here.

Ponder the fact that the Chinese have a massive footprint and excellent diplomatic relations with two dozen countries in Africa. They have become exclusive military suppliers to much of Africa, in fact. Angola is selling 100% of their oil to China. China is perhaps the single most influential global power in Africa today. This points to the fact that Chinese diplomacy is truly global.

Ponder the fact that China is exporting weapons with no strings attached to key middle eastern states like Egypt. They have a good relationship with Iran and Syria, while they also maintain cordial relations with the Saudis, UAE and others. They are becoming a key military supplier to the middle east and Egypt is looking to become the third participant in the JF-17 project by setting up a manufacturing facility. They already manufacture K-8s under license. China is replacing the former USSR and the US wherever it makes inroads in the Middle East.

Ponder the fact that China is developing global power projection weapons, such as satellite killers, BMs with aircraft carrier kill capability, significant submarine forces based on ever more silent designs to the extent that one of them surfaced amidst a USN exercise without being detected. They have three carrier projects in the works and that's just the beginning. Unlike the IN which is trying to develop a greater footprint in the Indian Ocean, the Chinese are developing a Navy that takes them far beyond. Read some of the analysis written around the time that the Chinese deployed their ships under the guise of the Somali pirate "policing" role. They will project naval power globally. No question.

The Chinese have a far superior ballistic missile and nuclear program - third only to the Russia and the US. Their space capabilities are going to exceed the Russians within the next few years as they land men on the moon. Their GDP has exceeded Japan's and their growth is the fastest in the world. Their ring of pearls strategy has won favour with almost all their neighbours other than India. Their influence in SE Asia continues to grow. They influence Australia through commerce, demographics and raw military force. If you look at the Australian discourse on this subject, they are essentially becoming resigned to China dominating them strategically.

Look up the last copy of Foreign Affairs; check out the map that shows Chinese influence extending essentially to all of Asia, including Australasia. This is reality.

With all of this, China's ability to globally project its diplomatic, economic and political muscle already positions it as a nascent super power. It will emerge as the strongest super power tomorrow. No question. There are contrarians, as I said, but better to look at reality and develop an appreciation for facts than allow yourself to be taken in by baseless idiocy...
Mate,China isn't a power right now, just understand it, why are u ripping me off and defending China?
Chinese quality is very degradable and every Indian here knows it
People prefer made in india,made in thailand,made in usa,made in germany,made in france goods.
China in India is famous for its poor quality goods
:cheers:
 
The tone and (lack of) quality of your response tells me there is no real discussion to be had here.

Ponder the fact that the Chinese have a massive footprint and excellent diplomatic relations with two dozen countries in Africa. They have become exclusive military suppliers to much of Africa, in fact. Angola is selling 100% of their oil to China. China is perhaps the single most influential global power in Africa today. This points to the fact that Chinese diplomacy is truly global.

Ponder the fact that China is exporting weapons with no strings attached to key middle eastern states like Egypt. They have a good relationship with Iran and Syria, while they also maintain cordial relations with the Saudis, UAE and others. They are becoming a key military supplier to the middle east and Egypt is looking to become the third participant in the JF-17 project by setting up a manufacturing facility. They already manufacture K-8s under license. China is replacing the former USSR and the US wherever it makes inroads in the Middle East.

Ponder the fact that China is developing global power projection weapons, such as satellite killers, BMs with aircraft carrier kill capability, significant submarine forces based on ever more silent designs to the extent that one of them surfaced amidst a USN exercise without being detected. They have three carrier projects in the works and that's just the beginning. Unlike the IN which is trying to develop a greater footprint in the Indian Ocean, the Chinese are developing a Navy that takes them far beyond. Read some of the analysis written around the time that the Chinese deployed their ships under the guise of the Somali pirate "policing" role. They will project naval power globally. No question.

The Chinese have a far superior ballistic missile and nuclear program - third only to the Russia and the US. Their space capabilities are going to exceed the Russians within the next few years as they land men on the moon. Their GDP has exceeded Japan's and their growth is the fastest in the world. Their ring of pearls strategy has won favour with almost all their neighbours other than India. Their influence in SE Asia continues to grow. They influence Australia through commerce, demographics and raw military force. If you look at the Australian discourse on this subject, they are essentially becoming resigned to China dominating them strategically.

Look up the last copy of Foreign Affairs; check out the map that shows Chinese influence extending essentially to all of Asia, including Australasia. This is reality.

With all of this, China's ability to globally project its diplomatic, economic and political muscle already positions it as a nascent super power. It will emerge as the strongest super power tomorrow. No question. There are contrarians, as I said, but better to look at reality and develop an appreciation for facts than allow yourself to be taken in by baseless idiocy...

It's a nascent super power?
And thats why India isn't scared of it.
We are openly pushing loads of forces on the Chinese border.
Rather Challenging them.
So in your view India is a nascent super power?
Would India respond to Russia or USA like that(imagine)
Well i agree to it, but i dont see any Pakistani agreeing to it.

I know China helps a lot to Pakistan,but don't try to start false arguments
 

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