China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

[cloud4000]

Unlike indians no other group exploit H1B system. Don't even think about comparing yourself with China.

Indians are not the only one perpetrating visa fraud, but you are blinded by your anti-Indian vies.. Your post is simply a product of pure jealousy. Nothing more.

 

[American Pakistani]

Indians are not the only one perpetrating visa fraud, but you are blinded by your anti-Indian vies.. Your post is simply a product of pure jealousy. Nothing more.

Significant majority is done by indians. Companies are involved too of course, because the govt is reluctant to take action against those firms, therefore no fear. If you have ever been part of management you would understand what I'm saying. Anyways no more off topic from my side.

 

[cloud4000]

Significant majority is done by indians. Companies are involved too of course, because the govt is reluctant to take action against those firms, therefore no fear. If you have ever been part of management you would understand what I'm saying. Anyways no more off topic from my side.

You said Indians are stealing US jobs. Now you say companies are involved. Who's exploiting who here? I work in IT an know how the game is played. all I can say is that the issue is complicated.

 

[hirobo2]

I've said this before, but I'll say this again:

USA and China are the only countries with stars at top left of flag.

Japan, SK, NK, Vietnam, UK, Canada, etc. all have "centered" flags.

It takes a top-left-stars country to outdo another top-left-stars country.

The others don't even belong in the same league...

(PS: IMO, the Chinese flag is the most beautiful in the world. The big star is like the thumb, four little stars like the four fingers... beautiful depiction of a human hand.)

 

[SouI]

Maybe, but India's population is expected to surpass China's in 5 years. There economy will almost assuredly become the third largest in the world in the next decade or two, thereby more money for defense, S&T, etc.

India will be a huge headache for China for a long time, given projected demographics. An there right at China's doorstep.

You cannot even speak english.. Where are you truly from and how old are you?

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Well, you have many difficult questions to cover

And I have just a SIMPLE mind to address them (and I ain't good at those sophisticated jargons)... so I can only picture my thinking in the form of further questions

Today what do you see as the real or true economic development in the USA?
And what is China doing at the same time?
Even during the last 10 years at both countries?

How's the infrastructure conditions in the USA and China today?
How do you the compare the infrastructure of the two?

How's the manufacturing capabilities and the industrial base between the two?

Which political system has more capabilities to plan and execute economic development programs incl. the long-term ones with time span over multiple terms of administration/government?

Which one do you think has more chance to succeed in further economic development, linked with science and technology as well as R & D?

I just use the most recent 10-year achievements to try to project what will be achieved within the NEXT 10 years... as it gives the clearest picture

Btw, I never grasp it why anyone ever thinks that every head count needs to be in good prosperity for a nation to gain its national strength... if it is the case then nations like these ones: Liechtenstein; Qatar; Monaco; Luxembourg; Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas); Singapore; Bermuda; Isle of Man; Brunei; Kuwait; Ireland; Norway; United Arab Emirates; Sint Maarten; Switzerland, which have the highest income per capita, thus are considered as the most prosperous nations, should have amassed strong national strength. But the reality are...

I am sure which one or which system I confide in. How about you?
。。。

Ah my Friend,

We both know the answers to your questions!

Some months ago I asked our resident banker @Shotgunner51 to put a Valuation on the current infrastructure in the PRC and add to it the Net Value that infrastructure had/has created so far in both economic and social development.

This was part of my dialogue with @TaiShang as we were discussing the need to have a compelling narrative regarding BRI back then.

What I have tried to interject here is the fact that we need a different model to gauage the true Value of the Chinese development so far and develop an accurate forecast for the next decade.

A Valuation Model with the Chinese Characteristics

2030 and 2050 are around the corner you see.

What I am most interested in is the Shanghai Index and pricing/trading of oil/gold in Yuan. Rest.... well the rest is history really. Why waste time on that. Future must be our concern.

@Götterdämmerung and I have discussed along with you the financialisation of life in the current system of the empire. 2018 is indeed an important date.

What China is doing is simply creating new conditions on the ground for a new global financial architecture...which must be of the most interest to the serious students of global development.

Now, do tell me, what can China do to achieve a balanced global financial architecture?

Over to you!

Mangus

 

[TaiShang]

You cannot even speak english.. Where are you truly from and how old are you?

Indeed, an Indian. Easy to spot them in a dialogue of meaningful length.

***

Well, you have many difficult questions to cover

And I have just a SIMPLE mind to address them (and I ain't good at those sophisticated jargons)... so I can only picture my thinking in the form of further questions

Today what do you see as the real or true economic development in the USA?
And what is China doing at the same time?
Even during the last 10 years at both countries?

How's the infrastructure conditions in the USA and China today?
How do you the compare the infrastructure of the two?

How's the manufacturing capabilities and the industrial base between the two?

Which political system has more capabilities to plan and execute economic development programs incl. the long-term ones with time span over multiple terms of administration/government?

Which one do you think has more chance to succeed in further economic development, linked with science and technology as well as R & D?

I just use the most recent 10-year achievements to try to project what will be achieved within the NEXT 10 years... as it gives the clearest picture

Btw, I never grasp it why anyone ever thinks that every head count needs to be in good prosperity for a nation to gain its national strength... if it is the case then nations like these ones: Liechtenstein; Qatar; Monaco; Luxembourg; Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas); Singapore; Bermuda; Isle of Man; Brunei; Kuwait; Ireland; Norway; United Arab Emirates; Sint Maarten; Switzerland, which have the highest income per capita, thus are considered as the most prosperous nations, should have amassed strong national strength. But the reality are...

I am sure which one or which system I confide in. How about you?
。。。

Very good questions, indeed.

Perhaps another critical question is which system is more flexible and adaptable and which one is more rigid.

You know, before the 18th Congress, the Standing Committee of the CCP was composed of 9 member. Then, seeing that it would derail swift decision making and was not practical, the number was reduced to 7.

This is a major decision taken to increase governance efficiency.

Now imagine reducing the number of the US Senate from 100 to 88. Is it even possible? Maybe on paper, but, practically, it is impossible.

We can find a lot examples of flexibility and adaptability superiorities in China's model/system.

This may tell something about responding to future challenges as a nation. How has the US managed the 9/11 incident? Was that a smart response?

Or have has it managed Syrian Crisis? It was bedfellows with Turkey to bring down President Assad. Now, the US and Turkey almost ended all bilateral visa procedures.

In my view, if a country moves from extreme to another one in foreign policy in such a short time, that country is hardly manageable. And we see that in daily management of the US foreign and domestic affairs.

This may give us a hint about the future.

Ah my Friend,

We both know the answers to your questions!

Some months ago I asked our resident banker @Shotgunner51 to put a Valuation on the current infrastructure in the PRC and add to it the Net Value that infrastructure had/has created so far in both economic and social development.

This was part of my dialogue with @TaiShang as we were discussing the need to have a compelling narrative regarding BRI back then.

What I have tried to interject here is the fact that we need a different model to gauage the true Value of the Chinese development so far and develop an accurate forecast for the next decade.

A Valuation Model with the Chinese Characteristics

2030 and 2050 are around the corner you see.

What I am most interested in is the Shanghai Index and pricing/trading of oil/gold in Yuan. Rest.... well the rest is history really. Why waste time on that. Future must be our concern.

@Götterdämmerung and I have discussed along with you the financialisation of life in the current system of the empire. 2018 is indeed an important date.

What China is doing is simply creating new conditions on the ground for a new global financial architecture...which must be of the most interest to the serious students of global development.

Now, do tell me, what can China do to achieve a balanced global financial architecture?

Over to you!

Mangus

Sometimes large structural changes are the most difficult to realize. It is probably because we are living witnesses to it; being right in it and living through it, often, we miss the wholistic picture.

BRI is so big in vertical and horizontal scopes. Even dedicated scholars are having difficulty to grasp it. That's why I believe maybe we need to start BRI area studies. It heralds a new world, indeed. BRI promotes its own version of globalism/globalization.

 

[GeraltofRivia]

I completely agree with you. Economics and trade is not a zero sum game.

There's always something to learn from other countries. To emulate good practices and avoid bad practices. Why some developed countries stagnate at GDP per capita of $30K while some can still maintain 5% growth at that level? To reach the US level of per capita GDP is not a natural state of affairs.

Totally agree, it is far from given and natural, rather it is a projection based on what is known and some educated guess. It remains so until it materializes. It will take multiple decades of hard work in order to materialize it, I think we Chinese are fully conscious about that. Even to lift China to the same level of mid level prosperous countries will be a massive undertaking considering where everything got started.

Despite many external variables, I am rather optimistic about Chinese capability and attitude of learning, both individually and institutionally. This is one of the key considerations in making the long projection.

 

[My-Analogous]

China's national power keeps growing. Relatively speaking, US national power is being diminished. Why?

President Donald Trump thinks it's the economy. Currently, China grows at 6.5% annually. In contrast, the US grows only at 2%. It doesn't take a genius to realize China will become the dominant economy in 15 years.

To fix the problem, President Trump canceled the TPP because the trade detriments (more imports) to the American economy was greater than the benefits (more exports).

President Trump is trying to remake America into a new China. He wants America to become a great manufacturing power and he's trying to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.

The logic is sound. Economic strength leads to military strength. For example, China seems to outbuild the United States in large naval ships every year. Thus, growing the US economy above its long-term average of 2% is imperative.

However, China's exports ($2 trillion) are only a small part of the Chinese economy ($12 trillion). The bulk of China's economy is dependent on the internal domestic market.

Every year, China's domestic economy keeps growing robustly because there is a technological upgrade propagating from the advanced eastern coastal cities and inward into less-developed China. This process will continue until all of China is as developed as the coastal cities. Thus, China's nominal per-capita GDP will eventually catch up to the United States.

This means the most important metric in evaluating future Chinese and US economic power is population size.

China has a population of 1.4 billion people.
The US has a population of 0.3 billion people.

There is no way for the US to offset China's 4-times population advantage.

Let's look at all of the important metrics.

China (3,053 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) consumes 34% more total energy annually than the United States (2,273 MTOE) and this gap grows wider every year.

China (5,920 TeraWatt-hours) consumes 51% more electricity annually than the United States (3,913 TeraWatt-hours).

China (87,000 units) installs more industrial robots per year than the United States (31,400 units).

China produces and installs ($27.5 billion) more machine tools than the United States ($7.4 billion) every year.

It is obvious that China's overall economy experiences a higher rate of technological upgrade than the US every year. China invests more in industrial robots and machine tools.

As the Chinese per-capita technological investments move toward the US average, this diminishes the economic lead from the earlier American industrialization. China is catching up in per-capita levels of industrial robots and machine tools in its economy.

Since the China-US economic technological level is converging, this leaves population as the only determinant.

Since China's population is four times larger than the US, China's economy will keep growing until it is four times the US economy.

It is not a population which make changes in China but approach. China never interfere any country internal politics and they can do business with anyone. US should realize that business and foreign affairs are two different things. Don't make politics in business and that is the mistake US is doing. Apart from that US laws are very complicated in terms of investment and then Tax play very negative role in it. US should reforms its tax structure and give few lolly pops to investors.