China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

[Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA]

That's expensive. It's almost the price of new flats in Singapore for a 85sqm...

if i am not wrong,most residents of singapore buying gov supplied 组屋，much cheaper than free market prices...and a lot families buy several nearby one to be able to live together..no?
Chinese troubled with real estate,medical assurance,and education issues,we are better than a lot of counties ,but still need big improvements!

the NSA monitors the Internet, spies on organisations, governments, etc..everything. you are identified by IP address of your computer once you log on and browse. defence.pk has address 192.124.249.9. if your ISP is China Unicom, yours probably something from 120.52.0.0 to 120.52.255.255. it is not only the US, you should then avoid to enter, if making 9/11 jokes, but nearly 100 other countries, that are US friends and allies. Germany included.

so.......YANKEES take every chinese enemy of usa,we are used to it,check CNN BBC, it is well known normal sense..........
whatever we do,they do not like us,unless russia threaten them again!!!
relax will you.....
I am not supporting terro at all but as they said even pakistani bros are supporting terro,i would say who is not.....
everyone and every country against yankees will and interests are terros, common normal senses!!!

the sooner USA close its door to everyone and every country,the better!!!
Meanwhile we china opens its door to anyone who.is openmind and willing to do businees with a win win principle!

 

[Mista]

if i am not wrong,most residents of singapore buying gov supplied 组屋，much cheaper than free market prices...and a lot families.buy several nearby one to be able to live together..no?
Chinese troubled with real eataye,medical assurance,and esucation issues better than a lot of counties but still need improvements!

Yep.

http://esales.hdb.gov.sg/hdbvsf/eampu05p.nsf/0/17MAYSBF_page_7239/$file/about0.html

1SGD is around 4.9 RMB.

The average size of 4rm flats is 90sqm(strictly of the flat’s internal living space).

 

[Mista]

easy for you guys,you have only 5 millions people after all,we have 1.37 billions people,and everyone want to go to shanghai,beijing,guangzhou,and shenzhen to buy appartment, to see a doctor,to attend school.....
try imagine 100 millions all of them want to go to singapore to see a doctor,to buy appatment....
what your gov gonna do?

That's true. It's one of the advantage of being a small city-state. We can choose how many people to move here.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

@Martian2 @TaiShang @samsara @cnleio

Friends,

The comparative analysis and indices used so far in this thread do have a relevance. However, we need to start benchmarking China differently.

We need to use BeiJing Consensus.

As of now there is at least two decades of growth potential in China's non-coastal landmass. Even at average of 6.0% growth the Chinese economy will be doubling itself in less than a decade. I am sure you know what that means.

However, what is missing in our understanding is the economic ecosystem that BRI is laying dowin. Please, do consider that what China is doing is the integeration of Eurasian, African and South American economies into the Middle Kingdom.

What does it mean for the Chinese Comprehensive National Strength?

It is also true that per capita income is a valid index. However, we need to understand the quality of life and purchasing power, which is a true measure of wealth.

Now ask the fundamental question: What can you get with 1$ in China and with the same in the US or the West?

Please, also include infrastructure quality, educational quality and health care availability to average citizen in both countries.

Hence, it becomes imperative to start developing different benchmarks when comparing the Dragon. This should foster a better understanding of True economic/social growth.

China is unique being a large country with Bln+ population. Nothing and none comes close or can come close. For simple reason: The two centuries of decline aside...before that period China had been a wealthy nation.

Now I ask why?

This is indeed a very educational thread. More such threads bring the quality of our discourse to a different level.

It is all about the Paradigm!

Regards,

Mangus

 

[airmarshal]

Then, what makes a population an asset or liability is perhaps the quality of government and governance.

This is the gist of whole argument about big population advantage.

 

[GeraltofRivia]

Even now the nominal GDP per capita gap between the US and China is still widening.

The US has 5x the per capita GDP of China. The US grows at 2% while China grows around 6-7%.

It's closing in in percentage terms, but widening in absolute terms.

I think you have raised a very valid point in that US is adding more GDP per capita absolute term than China measured in constant US dollar at the moment. For example, US added $472.8 between 2015 and 2016 and China added $397.8 for the same period. However, growing by $397 vs $472 is a massive achievement for China considering the fact that the basis is only $6,894, again in constant price USD. China has clearly grown more in total term by adding on 570b vs US 330b average per year. China will be adding more in absolute term on a per capita basis from 2030-2035ish and the gap will start to close.

As you pointed out, China is widely expected to overtake US in total GDP around 2030. This projection is based on conservative growth rate of 6% for China and 2% for US, which means the convergence will be around 23t USD in 2032. At that point, US GDP per capita will be $71652 while China at $17,514, both in constant USD. It means US will still be 4 times richer than us Chinese citizens on a per capita basis but the gap will be reduced from 7.5 times as at 2016. I think we focus on the fact that both countries will continue to prosper and the people will enjoy a better living standard in the foreseeable future.

As to the question of whether China will be able to overtake US on a per capita GDP basis. Being a Chinese myself, my biased view is that it is quite possible but need to recognize that it is a very long game. We are really looking at that kind of possibilities in the second half of the century and there is simple too many variables that can change the pace of development e.g. technology change. It is a bit hard for me to imagine the geopolitical landscape in that scenario. I think China is on a great projectile and just need to keep working on it.

If US finds a great formula to accelerate its economy, we should all admire the achievement, learn from the best practice and try to lift the game to a new level. At the end of the day, economical development and international trade is never ever a zero sum game, it is always win-win game. Otherwise why would you want to trade in the first place?

 

[Mista]

I think you have raised a very valid point in that US is adding more GDP per capita absolute term than China measured in constant US dollar at the moment. For example, US added $472.8 between 2015 and 2016 and China added $397.8 for the same period. However, growing by $397 vs $472 is a massive achievement for China considering the fact that the basis is only $6,894, again in constant price USD. China has clearly grown more in total term by adding on 570b vs US 330b average per year. China will be adding more in absolute term on a per capita basis from 2030-2035ish and the gap will start to close.

As you pointed out, China is widely expected to overtake US in total GDP around 2030. This projection is based on conservative growth rate of 6% for China and 2% for US, which means the convergence will be around 23t USD in 2032. At that point, US GDP per capita will be $71652 while China at $17,514, both in constant USD. It means US will still be 4 times richer than us Chinese citizens on a per capita basis but the gap will be reduced from 7.5 times as at 2016. I think we focus on the fact that both countries will continue to prosper and the people will enjoy a better living standard in the foreseeable future.

As to the question of whether China will be able to overtake US on a per capita GDP basis. Being a Chinese myself, my biased view is that it is quite possible but need to recognize that it is a very long game. We are really looking at that kind of possibilities in the second half of the century and there is simple too many variables that can change the pace of development e.g. technology change. It is a bit hard for me to imagine the geopolitical landscape in that scenario. I think China is on a great projectile and just need to keep working on it.

If US finds a great formula to accelerate its economy, we should all admire the achievement, learn from the best practice and try to lift the game to a new level. At the end of the day, economical development and international trade is never ever a zero sum game, it is always win-win game. Otherwise why would you want to trade in the first place?

I completely agree with you. Economics and trade is not a zero sum game.

There's always something to learn from other countries. To emulate good practices and avoid bad practices. Why some developed countries stagnate at GDP per capita of $30K while some can still maintain 5% growth at that level? To reach the US level of per capita GDP is not a natural state of affairs.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

China needs to start marketing its currency as the world reserve currency along side the US dollar and start pushing the oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia to trade oil in gold backed Yaun. China is biggest importer of oil now ,and being the customer, it should set it own rules. Customer is always right.

 

[TaiShang]

@Martian2 @TaiShang @samsara @cnleio

Friends,

The comparative analysis and indices used so far in this thread do have a relevance. However, we need to start benchmarking China differently.

We need to use BeiJing Consensus.

As of now there is at least two decades of growth potential in China's non-coastal landmass. Even at average of 6.0% growth the Chinese economy will be doubling itself in less than a decade. I am sure you know what that means.

However, what is missing in our understanding is the economic ecosystem that BRI is laying dowin. Please, do consider that what China is doing is the integeration of Eurasian, African and South American economies into the Middle Kingdom.

What does it mean for the Chinese Comprehensive National Strength?

It is also true that per capita income is a valid index. However, we need to understand the quality of life and purchasing power, which is a true measure of wealth.

Now ask the fundamental question: What can you get with 1$ in China and with the same in the US or the West?

Please, also include infrastructure quality, educational quality and health care availability to average citizen in both countries.

Hence, it becomes imperative to start developing different benchmarks when comparing the Dragon. This should foster a better understanding of True economic/social growth.

China is unique being a large country with Bln+ population. Nothing and none comes close or can come close. For simple reason: The two centuries of decline aside...before that period China had been a wealthy nation.

Now I ask why?

This is indeed a very educational thread. More such threads bring the quality of our discourse to a different level.

It is all about the Paradigm!

Regards,

Mangus

Very well said.

There are simply too many variables (as also has been noted by @GeraltofRivia )and it is difficult to consider them all. Martian2's analysis is definitely valid because it considers lots of potential intervening variables as constants (or controlled) like any student of social sciences would do. This is basic research methods. Social life (especially international life) is simply too complicated and unpredictable to figure out all the variables or include all of them in our analyses.

That said, the BRI is too big of a variable to ignore in any analysis of China's international standing, be it political, social or economic. In that, you are absolutely on the mark, my friend, that BRI's new global vision of integrating so-far ignored inland areas into the world trade and investment is revolutionary and will likely constitute one of the driving forces of modern China's third stage of economic reformation and upgrade. What Canada is to the US, BRI is ten times to China. BRI will have (figuratively speaking) ten times of the impact on China's economy that trade with Canada is having on the US economy.

In fact, the implications are already on the ground, visible. Cross border online trade between China and the rest of the world is exploding, surpassing the total of many countries' online trade combined. This is just one of the positive impacts of the BRI. Hence, BRI needs to be included in Martian's analysis as an independent variable.

 

[Solomon2]

China's national power keeps growing. Relatively speaking, US national power is being diminished. Why?

It's normal for China in peacetime to be the world's largest economy; the last few centuries have been an aberration due to the West's reaching the Industrial Revolution first.

 

[cloud4000]

It's normal for China in peacetime to be the world's largest economy; the last few centuries have been an aberration due to the West's reaching the Industrial Revolution first.

China is basically starting where it last left off. The Chinese have a great civilization that created many great things, many before they were discovered, or were attributed, in the West.

I would recommend reading the book The Man Who Loved China: The Fantastic Story of the Eccentric Scientist Who Unlocked the Mysteries of the Middle Kingdom by Simon Winchester for further details.

The book does ask the question why did China stopped innovating for all those years? There's no clear-cut explanation for this, of course, but one of the theories is that China became too superior and over-confident that it banked on its successes and stopped innovating. As a result, it slowly fell behind while others went ahead. After years of doldrums, China seems to back on track, starting where its last left off.

It's possible China will leap ahead of the West again. This seems to be the cycle of history.

 

[American Pakistani]

The US is growing weaker because it is ruled by traitorous clowns such as trumpy. These clowns, in order to gain their commission, export jobs to india and import more indians on H1B instead of forcing companies to hire those students who have completed their education in the US.

 

[cloud4000]

The US is growing weaker because it is ruled by traitorous clowns such as trumpy. These clowns, in order to gain their commission, export jobs to india and import more indians on H1B instead of forcing companies to hire those students who have completed their education in the US.

Why are you blaming Indians? They didn't create H-1Bs, nor did they exports jobs. Trump supporters care mostly about manufacturing jobs. Are Indians responsible for those? How many went to China? Are you going to blame the Chinese for stealing US jobs? Do you know what country gets the most H-1B visas after India, it's China.

 

[samsara]

@Martian2 @TaiShang @samsara @cnleio

Friends,

The comparative analysis and indices used so far in this thread do have a relevance. However, we need to start benchmarking China differently.

We need to use BeiJing Consensus.

As of now there is at least two decades of growth potential in China's non-coastal landmass. Even at average of 6.0% growth the Chinese economy will be doubling itself in less than a decade. I am sure you know what that means.

However, what is missing in our understanding is the economic ecosystem that BRI is laying dowin. Please, do consider that what China is doing is the integeration of Eurasian, African and South American economies into the Middle Kingdom.

What does it mean for the Chinese Comprehensive National Strength?

It is also true that per capita income is a valid index. However, we need to understand the quality of life and purchasing power, which is a true measure of wealth.

Now ask the fundamental question: What can you get with 1$ in China and with the same in the US or the West?

Please, also include infrastructure quality, educational quality and health care availability to average citizen in both countries.

Hence, it becomes imperative to start developing different benchmarks when comparing the Dragon. This should foster a better understanding of True economic/social growth.

China is unique being a large country with Bln+ population. Nothing and none comes close or can come close. For simple reason: The two centuries of decline aside...before that period China had been a wealthy nation.

Now I ask why?

This is indeed a very educational thread. More such threads bring the quality of our discourse to a different level.

It is all about the Paradigm!

Regards,

Mangus

Well, you have many difficult questions to cover

And I have just a SIMPLE mind to address them (and I ain't good at those sophisticated jargons)... so I can only picture my thinking in the form of further questions

Today what do you see as the real or true economic development in the USA?
And what is China doing at the same time?
Even during the last 10 years at both countries?

How's the infrastructure conditions in the USA and China today?
How do you the compare the infrastructure of the two?

How's the manufacturing capabilities and the industrial base between the two?

Which political system has more capabilities to plan and execute economic development programs incl. the long-term ones with time span over multiple terms of administration/government?

Which one do you think has more chance to succeed in further economic development, linked with science and technology as well as R & D?

I just use the most recent 10-year achievements to try to project what will be achieved within the NEXT 10 years... as it gives the clearest picture

Btw, I never grasp it why anyone ever thinks that every head count needs to be in good prosperity for a nation to gain its national strength... if it is the case then nations like these ones: Liechtenstein; Qatar; Monaco; Luxembourg; Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas); Singapore; Bermuda; Isle of Man; Brunei; Kuwait; Ireland; Norway; United Arab Emirates; Sint Maarten; Switzerland, which have the highest income per capita, thus are considered as the most prosperous nations, should have amassed strong national strength. But the reality are...

I am sure which one or which system I confide in. How about you?
。。。

 

[American Pakistani]

Why are you blaming Indians? They didn't create H-1Bs, nor did they exports jobs. Trump supporters care mostly about manufacturing jobs. Are Indians responsible for those? How many went to China? Are you going to blame the Chinese for stealing US jobs? Do you know what country gets the most H-1B visas after India, it's China.

Unlike indians no other group exploit H1B system. Don't even think about comparing yourself with China.