China Economy Forum

[Holmes]

China growth could fall below 7.0% in Q2: report

SHANGHAI - China's economic growth could fall below 7.0 per cent in the second quarter, state media on Wednesday quoted an economist at an influential government-linked think-tank as saying.

"If June economic statistics do not show an improvement, second quarter GDP growth perhaps will fall to below 7.0 per cent," vice-chairman of the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, Zheng Xinli, told the overseas edition of the People's Daily newspaper.

The research institute is supervised by the National Development and Reform Commission, the government's top planner.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew an annual 8.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2012 -- its slowest pace in nearly three years.

The government has reduced its economic growth target for this year to just 7.5 per cent, down from growth of 9.2 per cent last year and 10.4 per cent in 2010.

China has just released economic data for May which provided further evidence of a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

Industrial output grew at a slower-than-expected 9.6 per cent year-on-year in May, a faster clip than the previous month but still near three-year lows, the data showed.

Zheng, who is former deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the Communist Party's powerful Central Committee, said China's GDP growth is typically three to five percentage points below industrial production.

China is already seeking to boost economic growth, cutting reserve requirements for banks three times since December and slashing interest rates just last week.

The government is also boosting bank lending and encouraging domestic consumption through favourable polices for selected sectors, amid weak exports to key markets like the United States and Europe.

In May, the World Bank forecast China's economy will expand 8.2 per cent in 2012 but it warned policymakers must prevent an excessively abrupt slowdown.

China growth could fall below 7.0% in Q2 report - Channel NewsAsia

 

[kkacer]

Exports in China double market expectations

The yuan strengthened after China’s exports grew last month at more than double the pace analysts estimated and Spain sought a bailout for its banks, helping address Europe’s debt crisis.

Overseas sales rose 15.3 percent from a year earlier, more than triple April’s 4.9 percent gain and exceeding all 29 estimates in a Bloomberg survey, data showed yesterday. Inflation eased to a two-year low of 3 percent, coming in below the official 4 percent target for a fourth month, the government reported June 9. Spain asked euro-region governments over the weekend for as much as 100 billion euros ($126 billion) to help shore up its banking system.


The yuan rose 0.05 percent to 6.3671 per dollar as of 10:14 a.m. in Shanghai, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. Photographer: Jerome Favre/Bloomberg

“As inflation eases, China has more room to stimulate domestic demand,” said Stella Lee, president of Success Futures & Foreign Exchange Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Export growth is a positive surprise, while Spain’s bailout gives investors hope that global governments are working together to tackle problems.”

Yuan Advances on Export Growth Beating Estimates, Spain Bailout - Bloomberg

 

[Martian2]

Graphical depictions of China's GDP in 2011 and 2012

Last year in 2011, China's GDP pushed past the $7 trillion mark.

----------

This year in 2012, China's GDP should hit the $8 trillion mark.

Source: The new global economy - CNNMoney

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I think China's GDP should hit 8.5 trillion this year, and 8 trillion is a really conservative one.

 

[Beast]

USA 15.6 trillion for 2012 is too optimistic. It shall be same or 15.2 trillion only....

 

[Chinese Century]

The final NOMINAL GDP number depends on 1) real GDP growth 2) inflation 3) exchange rate change.

 

[SinoChallenger]

Having a big economy is useless unless your GDP / capita is high too. When China's GDP / capita gets to 50% of USA's, then China will really come into its own as a middle-income developed country. That is 10-15 years away still.

 

[Holmes]

China home prices dip for 8th straight month
BEIJING -- China's home prices dipped for the eighth-straight month in May but the pace of decline eased, fanning talk that the market may be bottoming out and that recent monetary stimulus could set the stage for a rebound.

Home prices in the world's second-largest economy have fallen month-on-month since October, after China tightened policy more than two years ago to take the steam out of sizzling home prices.

Still, Beijing reaffirmed hours after the data it would keep property tightening measures in place, concerned that inflationary pressures are still a problem even as the broader economy slows.

Prices have declined but the cumulative drop is still mild, analysts say, keeping home prices near record highs and out of reach for the majority of China's burgeoning middle class. If Beijing moves to loosen restrictions now, it may mean the economy is slowing faster than expected.

“Housing prices are stabilizing or approaching the bottom,” said He Yifeng, economist at Hongyuan Securities in Beijing. “But we still cannot see any signs of rebounding.”

Average new home prices fell 0.1 percent in May from a month earlier, narrowing from April's fall of 0.3 percent, according to Reuters calculations based on home price data in 70 cities published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.

Only 40 cities saw new home prices fall in May from April, as compared with 43 in April, 46 in March and 52 — the most so far — in December.

The set of year-on-year data told a different story, showing the average new home prices dropped 1.5 percent in May. That marked the third-straight month of decline, and compared with April's fall of 1.2 percent and March's dip of 0.7 percent.

A total of 54 cities suffered year-on-year home price declines in May, by as deep as 14.2 percent in Wenzhou, an eastern city seriously hit by private business failures in recent months due to external headwinds.

After the housing data, Chinese property shares reversed earlier losses, while Chinese developers listed in Hong Kong jumped.

Panic Again

The People's Daily, the mouthpiece of China's ruling Communist Party, said in an analytical report on Monday that many home buyers worry about a rebound in property prices, as China has relaxed monetary policies, which changed market sentiment and boosted property sales since March.

“It seems home prices and tightening policies have reached their bottom so quite a few home buyers are starting to panic again,” it said.

China home prices dip for 8th straight month - The China Post

 

[Martian2]

Chinese exports are SIX times larger than India's. Representative of relative economic size.

Chinese exports at $1.898 trillion were over six times larger than Indian $0.298 trillion exports. We can expect China's overall economy to be six times larger than India's.

Criteria for benchmark selection is as follows.

1. Benchmark has to be in the trillions of dollars to reflect massive share of overall economy.

2. Customs data involves two countries and cannot be faked.

3. The CIA Factbook is a neutral source (or actually biased against China) and the information is reliable.

----------

In conclusion, using the objective measure of exports as a reasonable trillion-dollar proxy, we expect the overall Chinese economy to be six times larger than the Indian economy. This matches the CURRENT exchange-rate GDP for 2011.

China has a $7.3 trillion GDP. India has a $1.35 trillion GDP (or 77 trillion Rupees / 57 Rupees per U.S. dollar).

At current exchange rates, China's GDP is 5.4 times larger than Indian GDP.

Reference: CIA - The World Factbook

 

[sweetgrape]

China makes super kitchen Hood with cleaning efficiency up to 97%
China makes super kitchen Hood with cleaning efficiency up to 97% | China's Great Science and Technology

2012-06-25 — An efficient centrifugal rotary filter fumes purification technology is efficient and accurate interception of cooking fumes and convenient curb catering soot pollution. Detected by the national inspection agency, the use of the technology products enable the fume purification efficiency of 97% or more. Recently, this new technology developed by the Wuhan Innovation and Environmental Protection Engineering Co., Ltd. by the expert council of the China Environmental Protection Industry Association.

Because of the cultural specificity of the traditional Chinese diet, fried, fried, fried, grilled foods more, causing serious smoke pollution problem. According to the College of Environmental Sciences, Tsinghua University Professor Ma Yongliang, soot contains a variety of mutagens, carcinogens, cooking smoke and lung cancer and other respiratory Diet fume emission is also the urban atmospheric particulate matter is one of the important source of organic components in fine particulate matter and volatile organic contaminants (VOCs).

According to an expert appraisal analysis, high efficiency centrifugal rotary filter fumes purification technologies and products take the dynamic mechanical shielding physical centrifugal Removal, oil particles and soot particles in the fumes from the gas block to change direction through impact, by centrifugal force into the lead tank , into the oil collecting box, the whole process for mechanical and physical process. Body resistance is small, compared with traditional products to save energy. Complete oil and gas separation system air inlet in the hoods, hoods smoke pipe two years need only maintenance cleaning, cleaning costs greatly reduce maintenance. Its products can be used for both food and beverage companies and the average family.

It is understood that the traditional home hood comes from Europe and the United States, using a strainer or filter plate design is not suitable for the cooking habits of the Chinese people. At present, the purification of the state departments of home hood there is no clearly defined. But the industry estimates, based on the principle of the purification rate is mostly no more than 50%.

Test report issued by the Beijing Central Research Central, can environmental technology testing center, and rated air flow, 80% air volume and 120% air flow, the purification efficiency of centrifugal rotary filter fumes from cleaning products can be up to 97%. This “super-hood” in the Central China Normal University, Huazhong Agricultural University canteens and hotels and residential area in the successful application of good response.

 

[pzkilo]

Sorry looser...fake data....

yea yea , everything of China is fake. China is not existing, we r all Illusions. u r going high

 

[WS-10 Engine]

Sorry looser...fake data....

mods please ban this disgusting troll

 

[Holmes]

Wage growth slows amid economic uncertianty
(Xinhua)
08:18, June 26, 2012

More than one-third of China's provincial-level governments have released wage growth targets for workers this year, with most of them trimming salary increases as companies face decreasing profits amid a slowing economy.

Of the 12 local governments that have released wage plans, most have targeted 14-percent wage growth this year, the Economic Information Daily reported Monday.

However, the growth target was off the pace of wage increases earned by workers in many jurisdictions last year. The target set in Hebei and Shaanxi provinces and Shanghai this year were as much as 3 percentage points lower than last year, the report said.

Analysts say the downshift shows local regions are cautious in regulating wage growth as the economic outlook for this year remains uncertain.

Government data show that profits from the nation's state-owned enterprises fell 10.4 percent year on year to 830.13 billion yuan (133.56 billion U.S. dollars) in the first five months of this year.

"Overly fast wage increases will push up costs for enterprises, and may create challenges for the operation of small and medium-sized companies," said Yang Liming, a labor and wage researcher with the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.

Yuan Lei, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China's exports may slow further this year amid a weak global economic recovery, which will create even greater pressure on export-oriented companies to curb the pace of wage increases.
Wage growth slows amid economic uncertianty - People's Daily Online



Country suffers huge loss from overseas investments
By Fang Yunyu (Global Times)
08:03, June 25, 2012

China incurred massive losses in its overseas investments as of last year, as domestic companies failed to do adequate risk control in their overseas businesses, analysts told the Global Times yesterday.

"By the end of last year, China suffered a net loss of $26.8 billion in overseas investments," said Zhou Zhongshu, vice president of the China International Council for the Promotion of Multinational Corporations, at a conference over the weekend in Beijing.

Zhou said Chinese companies need to be more cautious while looking for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in overseas markets and simply buying technology can not significantly improve the strength of domestic companies.

Sun Fei, director of the China Enterprises Overseas Development Center in Beijing, echoed Zhou's opinion. Many Chinese companies did not engage in proper risk management and prior due diligence in overseas markets, which led to huge losses, he told the Global Times yesterday.

"Moreover, among Chinese companies seeking overseas business opportunities, many are State-owned, which usually lack efficiency and innovation," said Sun, noting that such companies, which enjoy pretty profits in the domestic market through monopolies, have not adapted to overseas markets.
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90778/7854902.html

 

[LTE-TDD]

A very unusual phone call took place over the weekend, and it happened in Chinese. Both callers were in cramped metal tins with two other people, but the views from their dinner plate-sized windows could not have been more different. One man looked out to see 7,000 meters of Pacific Ocean water above his submarine; the other saw the arc of the Earth below his space ship and the vast darkness of space in all other directions.

This clever bit of PR underscores an obvious point: it’s been a good week for China’s sea and space exploration programs, as well as for superlative-hunting historians. It began on June 16th, when the Shenzhou 9 launched China’s first female taikonaut – Liu Yang – as a member of the three-person crew. This was the country’s fourth manned mission, and it featured a marquee headlining event: a docking between a manned capsule and the incipient Chinese space station. It was a unique challenge of hardware, software, and human skill, a technical hurdle that would justify more complicated mission architectures in the future.


And so, on June 18th, Shenzhou 9 activated its automatic control system and successfully linked up with the Tiangong 1 module. A couple of days ago, they backed up and did it again – this time manually, just to show that they could, and to prove to themselves that human skills represent sufficient back-up should the automatic pilot fail. Shenzhou 9’s milestones underscore the characterization of China’s manned spaceflight program as a deliberate, focused, incremental effort to be a long-term player in exploratory ventures. A recent article in Foreign Policy magazine even warns that China may be positioning itself to claim the Moon.



Meanwhile, in the South Pacific, the Jiaolong submersible dove to a water depth of 7,020 meters in the Mariana Trench, according to China Daily. The three crew members tested the scientific instruments, snapping photographs, capturing video, and collecting samples during the dive, which was the fourth of six planned tests during the current expedition.

To be clear, both of these feats have been accomplished before: orbital maneuvers have been taking place for decades, and two submarines have made it to the ocean’s deepest point. Even the rate of China’s advancement is somewhat average as space-faring developments go: it’s been nearly nine years since Yang Liwei ushered in the era of Chinese manned spaceflight – a time span that saw NASA go from Alan Shepard to Neil Armstrong in the 1960s. The lack of haste suggests that China’s space program is more than a stunt to ruffle foreign policy feathers or bolster national pride (though there’s likely an element of that in the long game too.)

In many ways, then, the most important aspect to emerge from China’s week of milestones is this seemingly minor distinction: Jiaolong has now become the deepest-diving scientific submersible, opening up 99.8% of the seafloor to scientific inquiry. Don Walsh and Jacques Piccard – who were there first to kick up the silt at the bottom of the Mariana Trench in 1960 – saw a few fish, the extent of their scientific program. James Cameron’s sub was poised to pick up some souvenirs during its voyage a few months ago, but technical difficulties curtailed the sample collection effort.

A instrument-laden sub is a different beast altogether Xinhua news agency’s photos of the sub suggest that it’s a one-armed beast (in contrast to Alvin‘s two arms) with a sophisticated array of cameras, lights, sample platforms, and possibly a vacuum that could be used to slurp up seafloor sediment.

The pursuit of high quality science in the deepest ocean trenches is a subtle but important mental shift, marking the move from trench-diving as exploratory novelty to trench-diving as research. It’s an intellectual grasping of a harsh, distant environment, much in the way that other extreme environments – think Antarctica – have transitioned from no-man’s land to scientific outpost. Just how the Chinese will use their new capability remains to be seen (many observers note the country’s interest in deep sea mineral resources), but the hardware itself is an important addition to the world’s scientific arsenal.

 

[oct605032048]

Why China is ahead of India?