China Economy Forum

[JSCh]

Highlights of China's 2019 economic work plans
Source: Xinhua| 2018-12-22 00:00:08|Editor: Chengcheng


BEIJING, Dec. 21 (Xinhua) -- The annual Central Economic Work Conference has decided the priorities for China's economy in 2019 as the country is to embrace a key year towards building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020.

The meeting from Wednesday to Friday in Beijing was participated in by the Chinese leaders, during which this year's economic performance was reviewed and plans were made for the next year.

Here is a list of key tasks on the top of the economic agenda:

-- Fiscal and monetary policy: China will continue to implement proactive fiscal policy as well as prudent monetary policy, make pre-emptive adjustments and fine-tune policies at proper time, and ensure stable aggregate demand.

-- More tax cuts: Proactive fiscal policy should be implemented with more effectiveness, with a larger scale of tax and fee cuts and a relatively substantial increase in the issuance of special-purpose local government bonds.

-- Fewer zombie companies: China will speed up the clean-up of "zombie" enterprises, while fostering new technologies and new industrial clusters.

-- High-quality manufacturing sector: Technological innovation will be strengthened, with the establishment of an open, coordinated and effective platform for the research and development of generic technology.

-- Stronger domestic market: China will accelerate the development of the service industry, including education, childcare, elderly care, medicare, culture and tourism while improving consumption and boosting spending power.

-- Rural vitalization strategy: To improve the living environment in rural areas, the country should promote garbage and sewage water treatment, carry out the toilet revolution and continue deepening rural land system reform.

-- Capital market reform: China will speed up the launch of a science and technology innovation board on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and experiment with a registration system.

-- Further opening-up: Market access should be loosened. Pre-establishment national treatment and the negative list management should be fully implemented to protect legitimate interests of foreign companies in China, especially intellectual property rights.

-- More exports and imports: The meeting called for greater efforts to increase imports and exports, push for a more diversified export market, and cut institutional costs of importing procedures.

-- Healthy property market: The meeting called for constructing a long-term mechanism to keep the sound development of the real estate market and adhering to the principle that "housing is for living in, not speculation."

 

[JSCh]

China to meet growth target for 2018: senior official
Source: Xinhua| 2018-12-22 23:55:28|Editor: yan


BEIJING, Dec. 22 (Xinhua) -- China is set to meet its economic growth target of 6.5 percent this year, a senior official said Saturday.

China's gross domestic products (GDP) will reach nearly 13 trillion U.S. dollars, said Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, at a forum.

In the past few years, China's middle-income population has added up to nearly 400 million, and this year the number has gone beyond 400 million, which sets a foundation for the country's economic transformation, Ning added.

This year, China would contribute nearly 30 percent to world economic growth, and the country's GDP would account for 16 percent of the global GDP, said Han Wenxiu, an official of Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission.

In 2017, the country's GDP was 12 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for 15 percent of world GDP, statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

 

[JSCh]

China GDP Growth Nudged 7% This Year, No Economic Hard Landing, CASS Projects
ZHANG KE
DATE : DEC 24 2018/SOURCE : YICAI

China GDP Growth Nudged 7% This Year, No Economic Hard Landing, CASS Projects​

(Yicai Global) Dec. 24 -- China's gross domestic product will grow by around 6.6 percent this year, continuing its generally steady growth, the Beijing-based Academy of Social Sciences said at a conference today. The economy will progress within a reasonable range with basically stable employment and commodity prices, the academy added, noting a hard landing is unlikely.

Several institutes under CASS gathered at the 2019 Blue Book of China's Economy Release and Chinese Economic Situations Report Meeting in Beijing today. China has attained growth of 6.8 percent in the last half and maintained it in the mid- and high-speed range between 6.7 percent to 6.9 percent for 12 straight quarters, per the meeting report.

China's labor supply has continued to contract each year since 2012 and the growth rate of capital stock has also shrunk as fixed asset investment growth has slowed. These factors are unlikely to change significantly in the short term, which means the potential growth rate of China's GDP next year will still fall slightly, but within a suitable range, per the report.

The country's determination to stabilize investment and secure its growth is firming. Infrastructure investment still has great scope. The realty business is tending toward rationality and stability. China's efforts to promote reasonable and effective investment are beginning to bear fruit.

SOEs Hit Speed Bump

Adverse factors have hit the brakes on growth of investment in state-backed enterprises. Local governments are undergoing investment mechanism reform and still need a long time to accomplish this, so investment they lead will hold its decline in consequence. US-China trade tensions are also casting a chill shadow on investment.

China's fixed asset investment will reach CNY81.4 trillion (USD11.8 trillion) with a nominal annual growth of 5.6 percent, down by nine-tenths of a percentage point from last year, the report projects.

CASS forecasts sound consumption for the country next year. The house price surge and online loans for consumption have lifted China's household debt-income ratio by 20 percentage points over the past five years. Debt continues to rise, vitiating the supporting function of disposable consumer funds, and this will exert a certain impact on consumption.

Institutional mechanisms that stunt the growth of potential consumption also persist. Homogenous service products meet customers' demands for variety and high-quality only with difficulty and this sets a great obstacle in the way for releasing potential consumption, CASS notes.

Retail sales of consumer goods will reach CNY43.3 trillion in a nominal annual rise of 8.4 percent, with growth down from last year by seven-10ths of a percentage point, CASS projects in its report.

China's export trade will keep growing but at a slower speed, per the report. Despite the rise of protectionism, China continues to implement a more proactive opening strategy. The trend to develop an open economy in the world is a must, and the country's international economic and trade cooperation is deepening.

Developing Guarantees

China will cooperate widely with Europe, the US, Japan and other developed economies, as well as most developing countries. International cooperation with developing countries and their economic progress are key guarantees of China's export growth.

Economic and trade cooperation with the Belt and Road nations is gradually expanding, with its influence showing exponential development. This mode of cooperation is crucial to China's export growth. The effects of the transformation and upgrade of the export trade are clearly evident, CASS says in the report.

China's consumer price index will be 2.5 percent next year, up about one-third of a percentage point from this year, sustaining a mild increase.

The producer price index will be 3.6 percent next year, down four-tenths of an annual percentage point, which means upward pressure on industrial prices will further ease next year.

 

[JSCh]

China's GDP Will Grow 6.3% This Year, Economist Survey Says
HE XIAO
DATE : JAN 09 2019/SOURCE : YICAI

China's GDP Will Grow 6.3% This Year, Economist Survey Says​

(Yicai Global) Jan. 9 -- Chinese economists expect the gross domestic product of the country to grow 6.3 percent this year, which is 1 percentage point more than what the International Monetary Fund suggests.

Chief economists from major financial institutions believed that the central government's supply-side reform and other measures will lessen headwinds and help to maintain a relatively strong growth rate, according to China Business Network's monthly economic survey that 22 chief economists participated in. CBN is an affiliate of Yicai Global.

Almost all financial professionals who took part in the survey agreed that economic growth will slow down from the year before. They suggested that GDP rose 6.58 percent in 2018, which was more than 1 percentage point less than what they proposed at the end of the third quarter last year. The IMF placed its bet on 6.6 in January that year.

As long as the trade frictions between China and the US come to an end, and domestic demand stays stable, the GDP growth may reach 6.3 percent, said Zhu Baoliang from the State Information Center, adding that in reality, the figure may land in a territory between 6 percent and 6.3 percent.

The Chinese yuan will buy about USD6.94 mid-year, and USD6.90 at the end of this year, the economists predicted. The redback will maintain a relatively stable exchange rate against the US dollar, despite last year's growing flexibility. Still, traders have not started to panic, according to the survey participants.

The yuan will face fewer depreciation pressures against the US dollar, while the dollar index may turn around in mid-2019, Pan Xiangdong from New Times Securities said.

The Chinese central bank is likely to exercise a more proactive fiscal policy, and ease its monetary policy this year, the group predicted.

The People's Bank of China cut reserve requirement ratios for the country's financial institutions on Jan 4., which is the first sign of a more relaxed monetary policy, JD Finance's Shen Jianguang said, adding that PBOC may move on to slash interest rates. Shen supported the government's idea of cutting taxes and fees, as Premier Li Keqiang said on the government's website on Jan. 4.

 

[Mista]

The People's Bank of China cut reserve requirement ratios for the country's financial institutions on Jan 4., which is the first sign of a more relaxed monetary policy, JD Finance's Shen Jianguang said, adding that PBOC may move on to slash interest rates.

中国的朋友们，有何感想？

 

[JSCh]

China GDP growth reaches 6.6% in 2018: NBS
By Zhou Lanxu and Xin Zhiming | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2019-01-21 10:01

China's year-on-year GDP growth reached 6.6 percent in 2018, compared with 6.8 percent in 2017, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

Growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 6.4 percent, compared with 6.7 percent in the first three quarters.

The country achieved its goal of around 6.5 percent GDP growth set for 2018.

Despite the easing, growth of the national economy remained within a reasonable range last year, said the NBS.

The country registered a 6.2 percent industrial output growth last year, compared with 6.6 percent in 2017.

Fixed-asset investment growth was 5.9 percent last year, 0.5 percentage point higher than the first three quarters of the year.

Retail sales increased by 9 percent in 2018 year-on-year, down from 10.2 percent in 2017, the NBS said.

Despite the easing in growth, China's surveyed unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in December and was kept between 4.8 percent and 5.1 percent for the year, the bureau said.

The economy faces downward pressure and there would be targeted solutions to the challenge, the bureau said in a statement.

 

[aziqbal]

2018 saw 6.6 pc growth

if 2019 shows 6.5 and 2020 6.4 then by end of 2020 Chinese GDP will have crossed the 100 trillion Yuan mark

close to $15 trillion

2018 also marks GDP per capita of $10,000

that is a massive milestone too

 

[JSCh]

Overseas investors hold more yuan bonds at end of January
Source: Xinhua| 2019-02-08 23:38:02|Editor: Mu Xuequan

BEIJING, Feb. 8 (Xinhua) -- Overseas investors owned more Chinese yuan-denominated bonds at the end of last month, as the country's bond market opened up wider to the world.

At the end of January, the total amount of yuan bonds owned by overseas institutions under the depository of the China Central Depository & Clearing Co. (CCDC) surged 40.55 percent year on year to 1.51 trillion yuan (about 225 billion U.S. dollars), the CCDC said on its website.

The amount was also slightly up by 0.08 percent from the end of last year, accounting for 2.6 percent of the total value of bonds under CCDC depository, the data showed.

The strong growth in overseas holdings of yuan bonds was in part boosted by the Bond Connect program, a market access scheme launched in July 2017 that allows overseas investors to invest in the Chinese mainland's interbank bond market using financial institutions of the mainland and Hong Kong.

By the end of last year, more than 500 registered institutional investors across the globe had chosen Bond Connect to access the Chinese bond market.

To further open up the bond market, the country announced in November 2018 that overseas institutions investing in its bond market would be exempted from corporate income tax and value-added tax on their bond interest earnings for a period of three years.

 

[JSCh]

Large graphite deposit found in northeast China's Heilongjiang
February 26, 2019

Abstract : A large graphite deposit has been discovered in northeast China's Heilongjiang Province with a potential economic value of over 100 billion yuan (about 15 billion U.S. dollars).

HARBIN, Feb. 26 (Xinhua) -- A large graphite deposit has been discovered in northeast China's Heilongjiang Province with a potential economic value of over 100 billion yuan (about 15 billion U.S. dollars).

The deposit, found in the city of Shuangyashan, has a reserve of more than 335 million tonnes of graphite ores with an average purity of 6.97 percent, according to the provincial natural resources department.

The department said the minerals there were identified as high-quality flake graphite that can be mined easily and at low cost.

Graphite is widely used in modern industries, including aerospace and electronics. It is the basis for the miracle material graphene, which is viewed as a key material in China's innovation-driven development strategy.

Provincial officials hope the discovery of the large deposit can boost the graphite industry in Heilongjiang and aid the province's industrial transformation.

 

[JSCh]

China to expand infrastructure investment in 2019
Source: Xinhua| 2019-03-05 11:25:20|Editor: huaxia

A technician checks a bullet train at Yantai Railway Station in Yantai, east China's Shandong Province, March 1, 2019. (Xinhua/Tang Ke)

BEIJING, March 5 (Xinhua) -- China will expand effective investment, accelerating the implementation of a number of key projects, according to a government work report.

Premier Li Keqiang delivered the report on Tuesday morning at the annual session of the National People's Congress, the top legislature.

Li said 800 billion yuan (119 billion U.S. dollars) will be invested in railway construction, 1.8 trillion yuan in road construction and waterway projects. Work will start on a number of major water conservancy projects and the planning and construction of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway will be sped up.

Staff members work at the construction site of the Lhasa-Nyingchi section of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway in southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region, on Dec. 23, 2018.(Xinhua/Chogo)

Other infrastructure mentioned in the report include intercity transportation, logistics, utilities, disaster prevention and mitigation, and civil and general aviation, and next-generation information infrastructure.

Li said 577.6 billion yuan is included in the central government budget for related investment this year, an increase of 40 billion yuan from last year.

China will explore new forms of project financing, lower as appropriate capital contribution requirements for infrastructure projects, make good use of developmental financial instruments, and attract more private capital into projects in key areas, Li said.

 

[JSCh]

China's NBS taking over regional GDP data
Source:Global Times Published: 2019/3/11 20:38:40

Move will improve statistical accuracy in China

A view of Qingdao Port in East China's Shandong Province on March 3 Photo: VCG

Starting this year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will take over the accounting for GDP statistics in all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and it will no longer rank the GDP values or growth rates of different regions, according to a report by finance.china.com on Monday.

Experts and officials said the move is part of the central government's efforts to combat fraud in the calculation of GDP. The shift could also mean the inclusion of new businesses that haven't been counted in the statistics so far.

From this year, the NBS will start to collect data at the regional level and it will develop a new system to generate and analyze national and provincial balance sheets, and to improve the overall assessment and evaluation mechanism.

Phasing in the new accounting system is among a series of recent attempts to combat fraud in the calculation of GDP in China, Yin Zhongqing, vice chairman of the Financial and Economic Affairs Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), said at a press conference during the two sessions, according to a report by bjnews.com on Sunday.

The Standing Committee of the NPC last year carried out statistical law enforcement inspections of six provinces in three groups, and it found that many improvements are still needed in terms of the efficiency and accuracy of data collection and the prevention of fraud, Yin said.

"There is a discrepancy between regional and national GDP figures, and it has negatively affected the credibility of the government."

Cong Yi, deputy director of the economics department of Tianjin University of Finance and Economy, told Global Times on Monday that the decision can prevent fraud, better reflect the fast-evolving economy in the Chinese society and address loopholes in the current system.

"The previous accounting system was province-based, which gave local governments a lot of incentives to exaggerate their GDP figures," Cong said. The old system also allowed for "data silos" involving businesses that run across different regions."

Many emerging sectors have yet to be counted in GDP figures, and the new accounting system can be an opportunity to fix that, Cong said.

One telling example is the ride-sharing business, said Cong. "For example, in North China's Tianjin Municipality, there are 380,000 cars running on the ride-sharing platform Didi, but only registered taxis are counted in the GDP data collection process in the current system, Cong noted.

 

[JSCh]

Inclusion of China's bonds in global index "important milestone": IMF official
Source: Xinhua| 2019-03-14 15:15:18|Editor: mingmei

WASHINGTON, March 13 (Xinhua) -- The expected inclusion of Chinese bonds in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index next month is an "important milestone" in China's financial integration into the world economy, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said Wednesday.

"That step both reflects the importance of those bonds in foreign portfolios and likely will encourage more purchases of those securities going forward," said Changyong Rhee, IMF's director of the Asia and Pacific department, at a book forum held in Washington D.C.

In January, Bloomberg confirmed its decision to include renminbi (RMB) government bonds and policy bank bonds in the index beginning in April 2019.

"This development follows the establishment in 2017 of the so-called Bond Connect, which allows foreigners to enter the Chinese bond market, as well as the authorities' recent commitments to further develop and open the market," Rhee said in his opening remarks of the event.

According to the government work report delivered last week, China will further open up its financial sectors and improve policies to open the bond market.

"Bond market development and global integration will be beneficial for the allocation of resources within the Chinese economy -- and will spur greater asset diversification in China and globally," he said, adding that it could boost China's economic growth and strengthen financial stability.

At the event held by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, the IMF senior official highlighted the significance of financial sector reform, calling it "an important element of China's current transition from four decades of high-speed growth toward what is intended to be high-quality growth."

Noting that the "reforms remain a work in progress," he said the process of developing and opening the bond market needs to be managed carefully in order to ensure financial stability.

Rhee suggested China, among other things, improve corporate governance, which means providing timely and reliable information for the capital markets, especially on corporate performance and outlook.

Clear lines of communications about the direction of policy also would be greatly beneficial, especially in terms of reducing market volatility, he said.

The IMF senior official lauded the efforts by the People's Bank of China, which has been "holding more frequent press conferences and providing more real-time information in English."

 

[JSCh]

SEPTEMBER 4, 2018 / 11:40 AM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Breakingviews - Shanghai's early market win threatens oil duopoly | Reuters
Clara Ferreira-Marques

SINGAPORE (Reuters Breakingviews) - Shanghai’s early success with its new oil market is beginning to threaten the duopoly of Brent and WTI. In four months, the yuan-denominated crude futures contract has built a 7 percent share of global crude turnover. Dealing in a state-managed currency remains an issue for investors, and Western traders have yet to really weigh in. But Beijing is on the way to building a credible benchmark.

China, which has overtaken the United States to become the world’s top oil importer, wants more pricing clout in a market worth trillions of dollars. The government also wants to see more transactions conducted in yuan, and to help its companies hedge more. The crude futures contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, launched in March, ticks all those boxes.

Benchmarks are hard to establish in a market dominated by two dollar heavyweights: a Russian attempt has stagnated. But a few months in, the Shanghai contract has garnered unanticipated clout. Volumes and open interest, which measures market activity, now rival the comparable Dubai Mercantile Exchange contract. In July, Shanghai took a roughly 14 percent share of the market as measured by front-month volumes – trade in the contract closest to delivery. The Brent benchmark took two decades to hit the same level.

China cleared an early operational hurdle cleanly too, with the settlement of its first contract for September - physical players had fretted about potential delivery hiccups.

External factors, including oil price volatility, have contributed to Shanghai’s success. U.S. sanctions may have also inadvertently supported trade: China is Iran’s biggest customer, and while Iranian oil is not deliverable through the Shanghai exchange, there are workarounds. Russia may also climb aboard.

There is work to be done. Almost all of the Shanghai trade is concentrated in the most active front month, whereas WTI and Brent see volume spread across the curve - better for managing risk. In response, the INE is considering introducing market makers to fuel activity in longer-dated contracts, and has cut fees.

The market remains dominated by Chinese state players; Western traders like Glencore, Trafigura and Vitol, whose participation is critical for global credibility, are largely on the sidelines. Their caution is tied to Beijing’s currency and capital account restrictions, which are unlikely to go away soon. Other fixes, though, will help Shanghai build on a good start.

MARCH 26, 2019 / 2:11 PM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
China's ShFE launches crude oil futures index; plans more products | Reuters

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) will start on Tuesday publishing an index linked to the prices of its crude oil futures contracts, a year after the launch of futures trading, the ShFE said in a release posted on its WeChat channel.

The crude oil futures index will measure the price movements and the rate of return for the most actively traded contract for the ShFE’s crude futures, according to the release.

The ShFE began calculating the index based on futures trading during the night session of March 25 and the index rose during morning trading on Tuesday.

The ShFE also plans to deepen cooperation with Chinese stock exchanges by launching a crude oil exchange-traded fund (ETF) and other new products.

This will help improve the structure of investors and lower systemic risks of investment portfolio, it said.

China launched its yuan-denominated crude oil futures on March 26, 2018, and it has gained substantial volumes from international Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures.

The total trading volume of the ShFE crude oil futures contracts was 36.7 million lots by March 25, the exchange said in separate release on Tuesday.

Reporting by Min Zhang in BEIJING and Chen Aizhu in SINGAPORE; editing by Christian Schmollinger

 

[JSCh]

China ramps up financial cooperation with Germany as US closes doors
Source:Global Times Published: 2019/3/25 22:13:40

A sign sits on display outside the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, operated by Deutsche Boerse AG, in Frankfurt, Germany. File photo: VCG

It is an inevitable trend for China to strengthen bilateral financial cooperation with Germany, an attractive financial market among EU countries that can parallel the market of the UK, said a Chinese expert.

The comment followed a statement on the website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on Monday saying that the Chinese securities regulator signed a memorandum of understanding with its counterpart in Germany - the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority - on regulatory cooperation of derivatives and information exchange on March 18 in Frankfurt.

The memorandum is an important component and supplement to the Securities Futures Regulatory Cooperation memorandum, the signing of which was witnessed by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz in January in Beijing when the second China-Germany High Level Financial Dialogue was held.

The memorandum signed in January was an update of the original document executed by China and Germany in 1998.

The March document will promote pragmatic cooperation involving the two countries' capital markets, provide guarantees for bilateral regulatory cooperation and drive the development of the China Europe International Exchange (CEINEX), marking a new phase of China-Germany regulatory cooperation, according to the statement.

CEINEX was set up in 2015 under the auspices of the two governments and its majority is owned by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Deutsche Boerse.

Home appliance maker Qingdao Haier Co kicked off the D-share project - D for Deutschland - on the infant CEINEX based in Frankfurt in October last year, becoming the first Chinese company to do so.

Dong Dengxin, director of the Finance and Securities Institute at Wuhan University, told the Global Times on Monday that the two countries have established the foundations for financial cooperation in cross-border D-share listings, trading and regulation.

"It is a natural trend for China-Germany financial ties to be strengthened as the US is closing its doors. Plus, Germany, a major economic entity in the EU whose financial markets can be on par with those of the UK, is an ideal financial partner for China," said Dong.

Like the UK, Germany is expecting to benefit from the Chinese capital market from a program similar to the Shanghai-London Stock Connect.

Peter Estline, lord mayor of the City of London, said the city hopes to further strengthen cooperation with Shanghai in the Shanghai-London Stock Connect project. He made the comment when meeting Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong on Wednesday, the Securities Daily reported.

"China and Germany will also roll out their connect scheme based on the experience of the Shanghai-London Stock Connect in the near future as the two countries have large cooperation scope in the capital market," said Dong.

China's financial sector is continuously opening up, providing opportunities for global investors, including those from Germany.

Last November, China granted German insurer Allianz permission to set up the first wholly foreign-owned insurance holding company in the country.

 

[cirr]

China's manufacturing PMI edges up in March

2019-03-31 09:41:22 Xinhua Editor : Li Yan

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector came in at 50.5 in March, up from 49.2 in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said Sunday.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below reflects contraction.

https://www.guancha.cn/economy/2019_03_31_495746_s.shtml