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China Economy Forum

Under-reporting economic output is an art that is only mastered and practiced by countries of ancient history、culture and civilization。

It therefore comes as a huge surprise that India,being one of only a few befitting the title of “ancient civilization”,has adopted SNA 2008 as the basis for calculating its GDP at earliest time possible。

The Indian braggarts need to their ego massaged. Indian economy is nowhere close to $2 trillion, it's a lot lower.
 
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China Construction Bank H1 profits edge up
August 30, 2015
China Construction Bank, one of China's major state-owned banks, on Sunday reported a 0.97-percent year-on-year increase in net profits in the first half of 2015.

Net profits stood at around 132.2 billion yuan (20.66 billion U.S. dollars) in the first six months, the lender said late on Sunday.

Business revenue for the six-month period gained 8.34 percent year on year to reach 311 billion yuan.

Net profits from interest for the six-month period gained 6.31 percent year on year, while net profits from fees and commissions rose 5.76 percent year on year.

Its non-performing loan ratio rose to 1.42 percent at the end of June, an increase of 0.23 percentage points from the end of 2014.

Non-performing loans stood at 144.36 billion yuan at the end of June, up 31.19 billion yuan from the end of last year.
 
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China's power use, railway cargo provide economic encouragement

chinadaily.com.cn | Posted: 31 Aug 2015, 17:11

Electricity consumption and railway cargo volume, two key indicators of economic performance, are showing encouraging signs of growth, China's national economic planner said on Sunday.

China used 463.34 billion kilowatt hours of electricity from Aug 1 to 28, up 2.97 percent year-on-year. The growth rate was 6.54 percentage points higher than in the equivalent period last year and 4.97 percentage points higher than in July, according to a statement on the website of the National Development and Reform Commission.

The commission said it expects power consumption for the whole of August to grow 3 percent year-on-year and that it will continue to climb in September.

Meanwhile, the commission said, rail freight companies shifted 5.8 percent more cargo in July this year than July last year.

These trends were backed up by figures from key provinces.

In East China's Jiangsu province, industrial power consumption is expected to climb 6 percent year-on-year in August. Public power consumption in Guangdong Province this month is set to be 2 percent higher than in August 2014, even though the population have been less likely to blast their air-conditioning in this relatively cool Guangdong summer. The growth rate is expected to be 4 percentage points higher than July.

China Three Gorges takes control of 3 energy businesses in Brazil

By: Si Huan | ecns.cn | Posted: 31 Aug 2015, 17:00

China Three Gorges Corp (China Three Gorges Brazil Energy) announced on Aug 24 that it will take controlling stakes in three energy-generating subsidiaries of Brazilian infrastructure group Triunfo Participacoes e Investimentos SA.

Triunfo said in a statement that it will sell all of its shares of Rio Verde Energia, Rio Canoas Energia and Triunfo Negocios de Energia for about 970 million reais ($270.2 million) plus 770 million reais in debt. An additional 148.5 million reais may be paid pending further examination, the company said.

Rio Verde Energia is operator of the 116 megawatt hydropower plant of the same name in Goias state, while Rio Canoas runs the 192MW Garibaldi plant in Santa Catarina. Triunfo Negocios de Energia is involved in power trading.

Li Yinsheng, general manager of China Three Gorges Brazil Energy, said that the company outbid several strong competitors and is expected to complete the deals by year-end.

China Three Gorges Corp operates the $22.5 billion Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River, the world's largest water control and hydropower project.

With the deal, the company's subsidiary in Brazil will expand its operations in the electricity sector from 687 MW of installed capacity to 1,000 MW.

Before the recent acquisitions, China Three Gorges Brazil Energy had interests in three hydropower plants and 11 wind farms in eight states of Brazil.

The sales of hydroelectric plants still depend on the approval of the Brazilian Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) and Chinese regulatory authorities.

Capital raised through the divestment of power assets will be used by Triunfo to leverage and improve its financial liquidity.

The deals are another case of cooperation between China's and Brazil's energy sectors.

In May 2013, the State Grid Corp of China took a stake in seven power-transmission projects in Brazil. In February 2014, China's State Grid also won rights to build power lines to the huge Belo Monte dam in Brazil's Amazon.

In August 2013, China's state-owned energy and chemical company Sinochem signed a definitive agreement with Brazil's state oil company Petrobras to buy a 35 percent stake in deep-water block BC-10 from the latter.

China National Offshore Oil Corp and China National Petroleum Corp have been successful in their bids for mining in Brazil's deep-water reserves.

Brazil is China's largest trading partner in Latin America, while China has been Brazil's largest trading partner for six years in a row. Flourishing Chinese enterprises are experiencing enhanced ties with Brazil.
 
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HNA buys landmark building in London
September 1, 2015

HNA Group, the owner of Hainan Airlines and a number of other aviation companies, said on Monday that it has acquired 30 South Colonnade, a landmark office building in Canary Wharf, one of London's major financial districts for an undisclosed amount.

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The Thomson Reuters building in Canary Wharf in London. HNA Group has acquired this 10-story landmark building for its expansion in the United Kingdom and Europe. [Photo/Agencies]

The 10-story building, spread over 305,600 square feet (28,390 square meters), is the European headquarters of global newswire Thomson Reuters. It is also adjacent to other financial powerhouses like Citibank, HSBC, Northern Trust and Morgan Stanley.

Though HNA did not disclose the acquisition amount, industry sources said that the building's former owner had asked for 215 million pounds ($331 million), when it was put up for sale in May.

"The acquisition of 30 South Colonnade by HNA is an important step in building its European portfolio and will also promote its international image," the group said in a statement.

HNA moved into the Fortune Global 500 this year, and is ranked 464 with total assets of $128 billion. However, it is betting big on growth driven by overseas expansion.

In the next five years, HNA expects to move into the Fortune top 100 and the top 10 in a decade, said HNA Group Chairman Chen Feng. The Haikou, Hainan province-based company has businesses spanning aviation, holdings, tourism, capital and logistics. The group achieved annual revenues of approximately $21 billion in 2014.

On July 31, the group bought the world's largest ground and cargo handling company-Swissport International Ltd-for about $2.823 billion and the group owns 27 subsidiary holding companies in 11 countries.

"The acquisition reflects the Chinese company's going global plans and lays a strong foundation for its expansion in the UK and Europe," said Jin Xu, minister counselor of the economic and commercial office at the embassy of China in the United Kingdom.

"China-UK economic and business relations have become more mature and there are now several firms, including private enterprises, present here. The UK is an open market, which is keen to attract overseas investment and the same view is shared by the government and companies," Jin said.

Although the acquisition is HNA's first move in London, the city has been attractive to Chinese investors for a while, as the largest economic center in Europe.

Around $4 billion investment from China went to London in 2014, which made the city the largest investment destination for Chinese capital, according to JLL, the Chicago-based global real estate services firm.

Chinese investors are trying to ensure long-term income through investments in the overseas real estate market, at a time when the Chinese economy is slowing, said analysts. Most of these investments are concentrated in major cities like London.

"Chinese investors still have strong passion for overseas real estate and the total investment may reach $20 billion by the end of this year," said David Green Morgan, head of global research for the international capital group at JLL.
 
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New fund set to boost small, medium-sized firms
September 2, 2015

China plans to set up a national fund of up to 60 billion yuan ($9.4 billion) to encourage the growth of small and micro-businesses.

The fund is in addition to measures lowering the initial capital requirement for fixed-asset investment projects, a State Council executive meeting decided on Tuesday.

The central government will invest 15 billion yuan in the fund as initial capital, according to a circular released after the meeting. The remaining capital will be raised from private and State-owned companies, financial institutions and local governments.

The fund will be used mainly to "support small and micro-sized businesses in the initial stage as seed investment". The fundraising, establishment, management and revenue distribution of the fund will be conducted according to market-oriented principles.

To attract more private capital to increase the growth of small and micro-companies, private investors in the fund will be given priority over government-backed ones in receiving dividends, the circular said.

The meeting also decided to lower the initial capital requirement for fixed-asset investment projects in some sectors to reduce the threshold for such investment and encourage economic growth.

The initial capital of a fixed-asset investment project is the proportion of capital that must be paid before, or in the early stages, of a project. The capital will usually be government revenue and can help project operators to apply for bank loans.

The meeting decided to lower the initial capital for projects related to the construction of ports, inland navigation and airports from 30 percent to 25 percent.

For projects related to the construction of railways, highways and urban subways it will be lowered from 25 percent to 20 percent, and for those related to corn deep-processing projects it will be lowered from 30 percent to 20 percent.

The initial capital for projects considered significant by the central government, in addition to that for the construction of urban underground pipelines, sewage networks and parking projects, will be open to more flexible terms, the meeting decided.

However, projects related to steel, cement, aluminum, charcoal and other industries where there is overcapacity will still have to comply with the requirement of 30 percent to 40 percent as the government strives to restructure the economy.

The growth in fixed-asset investment slowed to a decade low of 11.2 percent year-on-year in July. Infrastructure investment grew by just 19 percent year-on-year in the first half, compared with 23 percent in the same period last year.

The pro-growth policies announced on Tuesday were rolled out as China's factory activity continued to lose steam in August, signaling prolonged downward pressure on the economy.

China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index stood at 49.7 last month, down from 50 for July, according to the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. It is the lowest since August 2012.
 
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Reasons Why World Should Keep Calm About Chinese Economic Crisis


While the world is worried about the recent decline in the Chinese market, country's economy still has a potential for growth and reforms.


Undoubtedly, there are reasons behind enormous global attention paid to the recent tumble in the Chinese stock market.
China is world’s second largest economy, thus in an interconnected world any turmoil in the Chinese economy will immediately affect the global economy and may shutter the financial power of the US and other major nations.

While most of the global attention has focused on the debate between market bears and bulls and their outlooks for China’s economy, the picture cannot be fully understood without taking into account three important facts about the Chinese economy, an article in The Diplomat reads.

First of all, China’s economic slowdown should be analyzed in two separate dimensions – horizontal and vertical. This means China’s economic performance should be compared with other major economies’ performance (horizontally) and with China’s economy performance in the past (vertically), the author explains.

It becomes clear that for instance in comparison to the European Union’s one percent growth or Japan’s zero growth, China’s economy is performing very well.

There is still an outlook that China’s GDP growth might drop below seven percent this year, and would reach six percent in the coming two months.

A six or seven percent growth will be enough for China to complete the developing stage of its economic transition into a high-quality consumer society. What is more, the current slump in China’s economy was predictable.

Most Chinese economist argued that 10 percent GDP growth would not be sustainable for a long period and was harmful for China’s environment, the author underscores.

Second, one of the main reasons behind the global interest in the Chinese economy is that an economic crisis is believed to lead to social and political instability and transformation.
However, it might not be the case of China, the author argues. He further explains that there is no direct connection between economic crisis and social transformation.

The social and political situation in China is stable with the central government repeatedly voicing its commitment to maintain stability and respond to social needs.

Finally, the most fundamental question about the future of China’s economy is how far its reforms can go, the author writes. Current reforms proposals are facing strong resistance from all kinds of bureaucrats and only an intensification of anti-corruption efforts, particularly in the financial field, is expected, he continues.

To sum up, China plays a significant role in the global economy, and the world is right to be worried about it. Currently, China is in need for serious reforms to be put into effect, and a consensus among politicians and scholars to implement them. Nevertheless, these reforms are likely to begin soon as they are necessary, the author concludes.

Reasons Why World Should Keep Calm About Chinese Economic Crisis
 
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China could walk away from FTA if deal blocked
September 7, 2015

Australia's Treasurer Joe Hockey has warned colleagues that if the opposition blocks the China- Australia free trade agreement, China could walk away from the landmark deal.

Talking to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation on Monday, Hockey said he had discussed the terms of the free trade agreement with Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei at a G20 meeting between the world's finance ministers in Turkey over the weekend.

Hockey said it could be up to a decade before China would renegotiate the deal if it was blocked by Labor in Parliament.

"It will be a very long time before the Chinese would ever approach Australia with a free trade agreement should the Labor Party undermine and ultimately destroyed the agreement we've negotiated," Hockey told the broadcaster.

Labor has had reservations about the landmark free trade agreement, but Prime Minister Tony Abbott guaranteed Australian jobs would not be affected, and the Australian economy would benefit greatly from the deal.

Last week, Abbott told opposition leader Bill Shorten to listen to "good Labor people" such as former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke and former party leader Simon Crean who both labeled the deal as mutually beneficial for both China and Australia.

Crean - who was on the negotiation team for the free trade agreement with China when Labor was in power - said last week it was "an agreement that should be supported."

At the time, Abbott said it was the "best deal that China has done with any developed economy" and one that was "absolutely vital" for Australia's future.

It is reported a parliamentary inquiry into the finer details of the agreement is set to finish in the coming days, with the results expected to be delivered this week.

@ahojunk
 
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hey guys, has China or anyone done any analysis of impact of TPP on Chinese economy? curious what areas they expect impact and how much, considering the deep cuts across the board taken
 
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Baidu controls 91pc of mobile search market in China as smaller firms struggle to compete with nation's top 3 internet giants: Barclays

PUBLISHED : Friday, 04 September, 2015, 8:01am
UPDATED : Friday, 04 September, 2015, 12:31pm


Baidu owns more of its domestic search market than Google does in the US. Photo: Reuters

A new survey of smartphone users in China has found the domestic market for mobile apps is dominated by the country’s three biggest internet companies - Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu - with smaller players struggling for share.

According to Barclays, top search engine Baidu, e-commerce king Alibaba and games and social titan Tencent “lead mobile penetration rates in their respective industry segments”.

Baidu had 91 per cent of the mobile search market, Alibaba’s Taobao owned 69 per cent in the e-commerce field and Tencent’s WeChat mobile messaging and networking app owned 88 per cent of its market.



The Barclays survey was of around 150 smartphone users in Shenzhen. The company notes that "the results may not adequately represent the mobile user base and could have some bias towards high-end users." On a number of points, the findings followed those of similar research carried out by iResearch and Analysys. Users could select more than one app.

A measure of the most frequently used apps showed how WeChat has replaced previously dominant Sina Weibo as the most popular social networking tool for Chinese smartphone users, with 87.9 per cent saying it was one of their three most-used apps, compared to 29.3 per cent for the micro-blogging service.

Like Google outside of China, Baidu dominates mobile search, with the nearest competitor, Sogou, controlling only 7 per cent of the market.

Baidu was also the app of choice for mobile mapping, with 58 per cent of users saying it was their first choice, compared to 35 per cent for AutoNavi and 9.6 per cent for Google.

Google Maps, like all the US firm’s services, has been completely blocked in China since the beginning of this year.



Travel was one of the most competitive markets, the report found, with Ctrip and Baidu-backed Qunar controlling around a third of the market, or 39.5 per cent and 32.5 per cent, respectively. Domestic rival Elong was a distant third at 8.3 per cent.

That competition may not last long, however.

Ctrip recently attempted to buy Qunar and is already a majority shareholder in Elong, which posted losses of 356 million yuan (US$56 million) in the second quarter of this year.

Tencent, which owns 15 per cent of the company, proposed last month tobuy up all shares not owned by Ctrip, a move that analysts said would cement Ctrip’s lead in the space.

China’s online travel industry is expected to grow to more than US$75 billion in revenue by 2017, according to analysis firm iResearch.



Another valuable market, car-and-taxi-hailing apps, is also dominated by the ‘big three’. Didi Kuaidi, backed by both Alibaba and Tencent, controls more than 60 per cent of the sector, according to the Barclays survey.

US rival Uber, which has faced regulatory and other issues since investing US$1.5 billion in investing in its China expansion, controls almost 15 per cent of the market.

Previous estimates had found Didi Kuaidi to control more than 90 per cent of the taxi-booking segment, indicating that Uber is growing, particularly among private car-hailing customers.

There are more than 590 million smartphone users in China, according to official statistics.
 
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Summary: Chinese compact SUV sales in July
August 27, 2015

(Shanghai) - While small SUV sales have been increasing as of late, the compact SUV segment still remains the major source of sales in the Chinese SUV segment. According to statistics from Gasgoo.com (Chinese), a total of 227,084 compact SUVs were sold in July, accounting for 56.3% of all SUV sales made in the country over the course of the month. However, one thing worth pointing out is that compact SUV sales growth rates are on the decline. Cumulative compact SUV sales grew 16.2% in July, compared to a 35.8% growth rate for the SUV segment overall. The proportion of SUV sales that were of compact SUVs also fell 9.5% during the month.

Domestic own brand manufacturers’ performance in the compact SUV segment remains strong. Own brand compact SUVs achieved sales growth of 51.6%. This impressive sales growth rate is due in large part to the successful introduction of new compact SUV models, which have proven to be very popular. By contrast, the performance of joint ventures in the segment has been a lot less encouraging, as their combined sales decreased 9.6%. In particular, sales of Korean compact SUVs fell 58.1% in the month. While Japanese and German compact SUVs fared better by comparison, their respective sales growth rates of 10.8% and 3.3% still left quite a lot to be desired.

The Great Wall Haval H6 was the best-selling compact SUV of July. It was followed by the VW Tiguan, GAC Trumpchi GS4, Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4, Changan CS75, Nissan X-Trail, BYD S3, SAIC-GM-Wuling Baojun 560 and Ford Kuga. Half of the models making the list were from own brand manufacturers.

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The Great Wall Haval H6 achieved sales of 23,088 units this July, down 13% from the amount sold last July. Despite the decline sales volumes, the Haval H6 continues to lead the rest of the segment by a very comfortable margin.

Despite having only been on the market for a little over three months, the GAC Trumpchi GS4 has still managed to accumulate a total of 12,138 sales in July. In only its second month on the market, the Trumpchi GS4 already achieved sales of over 6,000 units. Two short months later monthly sales of the Trumpchi GS4 had already past the 10,000 units mark.

Another new model, the SAIC-GM-Wuling Baojun 560, also performed very strongly. A respectable 9,158 Baojun 560s were sold in the few weeks it has been on the market.

The Changan CS75 and BYD S3 also posted very strong sales results. Sales of the CS75 and S3 totaled 11,195 units and 10,772 units, representing sales growth rates of 110.8% and 49.5%, respectively.

The VW Tiguan was the best-selling foreign brand SUV of July, with a total of 17,466 units sold. That figure is 8.6% less than the amount sold a year ago. Similarly, sales of the Ford Kuga fell 24.6% from last July to this July. A total of 7,881 Kugas were sold over the course of the month.

Three Japanese compact SUV models made the sales chart: the Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4 and Nissan X-Trail. Among them, the CR-V managed to perform very strongly in July. Its monthly sales of 12,115 units was a little over double the amount sold last July. By comparison, even though the RAV4 and X-Trail posted respectable sales volumes of 11,715 units and 10,806 units, they both saw their sales fall from last year. This is especially troubling for the New X-Trail, whose sales were initially very strong, allowing it to compete squarely with the Tiguan and CR-V. However, after that initial boom, the performance of the X-Trail began to trail.
 
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China's Investment in Countries Related to Belt-Road Initiative Grows
2015-09-07

China's direct investment in countries along the one belt one road initiative grows nearly 30% year on year in the first seven months of this year.

Shen Danyang, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce on Monday said the amount of investment is 8.6 billion US dollars.

"Viewed by sectors, investment in the wholesale and retail trade sectors and that in leasing and business services sectors posted bigger growth of 428.7 and 500.3 percent year-on-year."

The investment mainly realized in countries including Russia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Laos.
 
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