BEIJING—China’s exports posted a strong rebound in February after a
weak showing in January, as a steep upturn in shipments to major markets suggested a lift for Chinese factories.
Still, the data painted a mixed picture for the world’s No. 2 economy, as imports extended a slide amid slack Chinese demand and slowing economic growth. Economists also cautioned that the data were likely affected by the Lunar New Year holiday.
“These were good export numbers but we can’t say this is a huge help to the economy,” said Andrew Polk, economist at The Conference Board. Referring to China’s leaders, he said, “It’s just one less fire they have to fight.”
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Outbound shipments in U.S. dollar terms surged 48.3% in February from a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Sunday. This reversed January’s decline of 3.3% and far outpaced market expectations for a 13.3% rise.
That helped China chalk up another record trade surplus of $60.6 billion in February, outstripping market expectations and topping the previous $60 billion record posted in January. A growing trade surplus generally puts pressure on China’s currency, the yuan, to appreciate—though the currency is also facing downward pressure, such as
capital leaving the country as of the end of last year.
China’s economy grew 7.4% last year, its weakest performance in 24 years. On Thursday, the government set an even lower
growth target of about 7% for this year.
Policy makers have used an array of measures to boost growth, offering tax breaks to businesses, cutting red tape on project approvals and stepping up spending on rail, subway and water projects.
The central bank last week
cut interest rates for the second time in less than four months to give the economy another shot in the arm.
The trade figures did contain some bright spots. In February alone, exports to the European Union were up 44%, a particularly welcome tally as the currency bloc has been recovering at a relatively slow pace. Meanwhile, exports to the U.S. surged 48%, defying
a labor dispute that had disrupted shipments to West Coast ports.
China’s Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng told reporters Saturday he was confident the nation could reach its target of 6% growth in combined exports and imports this year. He also said that based on preliminary indications, March figures should show improvement over February.
Analysts cautioned, however, that the February trade figures were distorted by a number of factors, including comparisons with a weak tally a year ago as authorities cracked down on export fraud, as well as the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. The holiday began at the end of January last year but in the middle of February this year.
They said that there might have been front-loading of shipments ahead of last year’s holiday, when workers usually return home and factories close for the most important holiday on the Chinese calendar.
Other analysts said that it was too soon to say the country’s exporters were out of the woods.
“We still see strong headwinds facing China’s exports this year,” wrote ANZ economists Li-Gang Liu and Hao Zhou in a note to clients.
Meanwhile, imports slumped 20.5% from a year earlier in February, surpassing the 19.9% fall in January and exceeding market expectations of a 10% decrease. The February slide was the fourth consecutive month of lower year-over-year imports.
The import decline was partly due to the sharp fall in prices for key commodities such as oil and metals. Crude-oil imports fell 46% in value but were up 11% in volume. Iron-ore imports showed a similar trend, losing 39% in value but gaining 11% in volume.
Analysts said that low commodities prices coupled with generally weak domestic demand should ensure further trade surpluses for China in the coming months. The nation had a trade surplus of $382.46 billion in 2014, up from $259.75 billion in 2013.
—Liyan Qi contributed to this article.
