China Economy Forum

[Maravan]

Seriously I am wondered, they had built so many beautiful cities. I think, they dont know what to do with the extra money they had... I dont think infrastructure investment will go waste, Once some enterprises/factories are started, these houses will get filled automatically.

 

[Prajapati]

To export our products and expand our business. But given Modi business module, it will not work. China will not be duped into dumping money into India without India partnership and putting money into the project too.

It was China who came seeking investment opportunity in India and in bullet train.

You need to provide your advice to your govt. Japan is already doing it on the Mumbai - Ahmedabad link.

 

[Beast]

There is no chinese technical innovation in HSR. They just decided the spend the money. And japs and Europeans found that it was bargain price to sell to china, to make a profit. Nobody knows till later, that the investment was wise or will end up as monuments of a people's republic in ruins and stagnation.

That's a very wrong conclusion. If our new HSR has no new China technology input, how can our train top speed outpace Germany and Japan record. Currently , our HSR still held the world record for fastest speed for a operational HSR. And our HSR average speed is still higher than germany and Japan. That exclude megalev train.

No doubt our HSR is improved on exisiting Japanese and German proven HSR technology. To say there is nothing Chinese input or innovation is an understatement.

 

[Swachh_Bharat]

Seriously I am wondered, they had built so many beautiful cities. I think, they dont know what to do with the extra money they had... I dont think infrastructure investment will go waste, Once some enterprises/factories are started, these houses will get filled automatically.

Yes, they have manhattan of their own.. maybe could house 10,000 people.

It was built with life saving of 20 million chinese workers.

How to choose the chosen "10,000" who will live in the manhattan of china ... and what happens to the remaining. Those remaining won't have the money to buy rice, if banks don't repay their life savings.

Or do they invite Europeans and American to live and pay rent for living in "manhattan of china" ?

 

[Beast]

It was China who came seeking investment opportunity in India and in bullet train.

You need to provide your advice to your govt. Japan is already doing it on the Mumbai - Ahmedabad link.

Modi tender for HSR investment and of cos if feasible, why not we take a look about it?

 

[dray]

Have you checked actual stats regarding their debt? Do you know how much of the debt is bad or could go bad?

Their growth is not all investment led right now. You are wrong with that. They have already started shifting to more domestic consumption and it's working.

"They end up investing in things, which no one wants to consume."

The actual stats say otherwise. I'm sorry, but I see a bias in you.

The biggest builder of China (probably the world) is saying that the real estate bubble is dangerous and will lead to a disaster, you want that link too?

 

[Beast]

It was China who came seeking investment opportunity in India and in bullet train.

You need to provide your advice to your govt. Japan is already doing it on the Mumbai - Ahmedabad link.

Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Link - Railway Technology

Seems like they conduct a study only. Nothing comfirmed and Japan will not take a big risk if India only want Japan pure risky one side investment.

The biggest builder of China (probably the world) is saying that the real estate bubble is dangerous and will lead to a disaster, you want that link too?

Has it happen yet? In fact, CCP wanted some form of cool down of real estate as complain of too expensive housing for ordinary. China is in total control. The talk of China collapse is keep repeating for 20 years and nothing happened.

 

[Prajapati]

Modi tender for HSR investment and of cos if feasible, why not we take a look about it?

So you are contradicting your own statements now. As I said, its China who came to India seeking opportunity for investments.

Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Link - Railway Technology

Seems like they conduct a study only. Nothing comfirmed and Japan will not take a big risk if India only want Japan pure risky one side investment.

That is how its done. First is always a Study.

 

[thesolar65]

I am of the mindset no infrastructural investment is a waste.

Infrastructures also needs maintenance expenditures afterwards!!

 

[dray]

Has it happen yet? In fact, CCP wanted some form of cool down of real estate as complain of too expensive housing for ordinary. China is in total control. The talk of China collapse is keep repeating for 20 years and nothing happened.

Who said about last 20 years? But it is long overdue, CCP should have let the economy correct itself at least 5-6 years back, but they are still continuing with their old policy of injecting massive economic stimulus to drive growth with diminishing returns and diminishing efficiency of investment, this is only worsening the situation for China. See, a major economic crisis is unavoidable, the question is for how long CCP can delay it.

 

[Beast]

Who said about last 20 years? But it is long overdue, CCP should have let the economy correct itself at least 5-6 years back, but they are still continuing with their old policy of injecting massive economic stimulus to drive growth with diminishing returns and diminishing efficiency of investment, this is only worsening the situation for China. See, a major economic crisis is unavoidable, the question is for how long CCP can delay it.

Please dont say crap. Inefficient return? By what standard? This report? China still sit on a massive foreign reserve of 4 trillion. If you are talking about collapse, China will be the last on list.

 

[dray]

Please dont say crap. Inefficient return? By what standard? This report? China still sit on a massive foreign reserve of 4 trillion. If you are talking about collapse, China will be the last on list.

Diminishing efficiency of investment is an economic term describing a situation where every additional penny invested in something is performing less efficiently than the previous penny invested there, thus generating lesser and lesser returns than previous investments. Your foreign reserves have nothing to do with it.

Your government is taking steps to reduce the prices of real estate, and there are already protests among people who have invested in real estate, the entire middle and upper class. This has its own consequences, want me to explain?

 

[Beast]

Diminishing efficiency of investment is an economic term describing a situation where every additional penny invested in something is performing less efficiently than the previous penny invested there, thus generating lesser and lesser returns than previous investments. Your foreign reserves have nothing to do with it.

Your government is taking steps to reduce the prices of real estate, and there are already protests among people who have invested in real estate, the entire middle and upper class. This has its own consequences, want me to explain?

Then how does it relate to China collapse. You only collaspe when your reserve ran out,right? Trying hard to sell some China doom rumours?

 

[Swachh_Bharat]

Please dont say crap. Inefficient return? By what standard? This report? China still sit on a massive foreign reserve of 4 trillion. If you are talking about collapse, China will be the last on list.

Net asset value is $ 3 trillion, since China also has an external debt of $ 1 trillion.

Add up the net FDI into china for last 30 years .. if all those foreigners start selling the underlying assets purchased in China, in exchange of the FDI dollars ... you begin to have to either draw down the net $ 3 trillion, or devalue CNY to force foreigners to exit at losses. Btw.. much of the FDI was at 8.2 USDCNY rate. So, those foreigners gave up 1 USD to get 8.2 CNY. Even with zero return in CNY, they can now demand 1.32 USD when they take their money back at 6.2 USDCNY.

When bad things come, they come all together. Foreigners run out with their FDI .... when you have inflation / no growth / excess capacity / no buyers. Or you could have bankruptcies / no bailout / deflation.

Hard choice between a stick and a kick !

 

[Beast]

Net asset value is $ 3 trillion, since China also has an external debt of $ 1 trillion.

Add up the net FDI into china for last 30 years .. if all those foreigners start selling the underlying assets purchased in China, in exchange of the FDI dollars ... you begin to have to either draw down the net $ 3 trillion, or devalue CNY to force foreigners to exit at losses. Btw.. much of the FDI was at 8.2 USDCNY rate. So, those foreigners gave up 1 USD to get 8.2 CNY. Even with zero return in CNY, they can now demand 1.32 USD when they take their money back at 6.2 USDCNY.

When bad things come, they come all together. Foreigners run out with their FDI .... when you have inflation / no growth / excess capacity / no buyers. Or you could have bankruptcies / no bailout / deflation.


Hard choice between a stick and a kick !

In the first place why would they start selling in the first place? You are thinking of some kind of conspiracy? China is the best bet for western countries to boast their growth and even boeing to expect to ride in China $600billion aviation martket. Why would they try to kill the golden goose. They are even expecting China to buy up their underperforming asset to boast their economy.

And if you try to play around and messing in the market system. China is the worst place to choose since the government is sitting in a large foreign reserve. They will only get their hands burn before exhausting their chips.

You all can start all kind of China collaspe theory but other than some wetdream, it will hardly happen in the coming decades.