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I don't really have time to educate Chinicites because you don't want to understand or maybe you don't have the capacity to understand.

China is doing a lot of investment yes but that is not connected to consumption. Investment will increase consumption and create jobs but China's population is still dirt poor compared to Europe. Per capita purchasing power in China is similar to purchasing power of a stray dog in Europe. In addition your whole economy is dependent on US and Europe, your enemies.

China HAS to keep up growth rate, without that, their economy will fail and the growth rate for China is already falling like a rock. Most economist say that China, how hard they try will face economic crises because demand for cheap chinese shyte is declining and US is already moving production to third countries.

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There is overwhelming poverty of China, where 900 million people have an annual per capita income around the same level as Guatemala, Georgia, Indonesia or Mongolia ($3,000-$3,500 a year), while around 500 million of those have an annual per capita income around the same level as India, Nicaragua, Ghana, Uzbekistan or Nigeria ($1,500-$1,700). China's overall per capita GDP is around the same level as the Dominican Republic, Serbia, Thailand or Jamaica. Stimulating an economy where more than a billion people live in deep poverty is impossible. Economic stimulus makes sense when products can be sold to the public. But the vast majority of Chinese cannot afford the products produced in China, and therefore, stimulus will not increase consumption of those products.

At the end China will face major financial crises. The prediction is that central government will loose control. Southern and eastern China will undermine Beijing to attract investment from Japan. You will loose other regions as well. You can believe in the Chinese miracle but a paper tiger will always be a paper tiger.

Clearly you have an extremely limited knowledge of basic economics.

So let me take some time to teach you some basic economics.

Right, let's get started shall we..

First you need to learn the difference between per capita vs consumption power.

It's not the per capita that matters, it's the total number of people that have a middle class by international standards that matter.

For example, China has just as many people that earn a salary of $50,000 as that of the US.

This means the total number of people considered middle class is just as big in China as it is in America.

Just like comparing how many millionaires and billionaires a country has. It's the total number of people earning a salary of $50,000 that matter, not per capita.

The reason why per capita is an inaccurate measure of the total
consumption power of a country is because a country with a large population like China has millions of rich people and millions of poor people. So when you add the poor people and the rich people together, you get a lower per capita number because the poor people drag down the per capita figure. But it's those rich people that does the consuming.

For example, America could have 200 million people that earn a salary of $50,000 and China could have 200 million people that earn a salary of $50,000.

This means each country has a population with the same purchasing power. 200 million Chinese vs 200 million Americans.

This is why you never apply per capita when discussing TOTAL consumption power.

A country like Australia which has a population of 20 million will never have a higher total consumption power than China which has 1.3 billion people.

Even if every Australian has a salary of $50,000 (which means very high per capita), they still cannot out consume a country like China which might have 40 million people with a salary of $50,000.
In this scenario, Australia will have a much higher per capita than China since every Australian is rich. But since China has many poor people in addition to the 40 million rich Chinese, China's per capita is very low.

Which country can consume more in this scenario? 20 million rich Australians or 40 million rich Chinese?
Of course it's China. Why? Because China has TWICE as many rich people as there are in Australia. In fact, China has more rich people alone than there are people in Australia.

That's the difference between consumption power, purchasing power and its relation to population size.

Always remember:
A large population with a few rich people will always be a bigger consumer market than a small population with many rich people. Big is better!

The high per capita in a small populated country doesn't mean it will be a bigger consumption power than a larger populated country with low per capita.

You have to factor in the poor people into the per capita figures which distorts the true consumption power of the large populated country.

Now....

Next thing you fail to realise is that investment is the major growth engine for every economy. The struggling economies around the world have a lack of investment not a lack of consumption. Investment drives the growth of an economy. For investment you need capital. China has the largest gross savings in the world. This allows China to rapidly invest in the economy which translates to consumption and job creation.

This is why when investment declines, economies collapse even though consumption is very high.

China is not an export economy, China is an investment economy. Investment contributes 50% of the economic GROWTH to the Chinese economy. Investment in infrastructure, private investment to make goods & services, property investment all form part of investment. Because China has ample savings to continue the investment, the Chinese growth rates will not come down for a very long time.

As I said before, your economic knowledge is ridiculously limited. It's quite incredible you don't even realise basics such as the difference between per capita and total consumption power.

When you learn the difference, come back to me kid :coffee:
 
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Property Trust Sales Drop 49% as Vicious Loop Seen: China Credit

Property Trust Sales Drop 49% as Vicious Loop Seen: China Credit - Bloomberg

UPDATE 2-Desperate for credit, China importers default on soy cargoes

Demand for soymeal has been hit by outbreaks of bird flu, cutting appetite by as much as 20 to 30 percent in the February-March period, analysts said. Pig farmers have also reduced purchases as they trim herds due to oversupplied pork markets. (Editing by Joseph Radford and Amran Abocar)

you are so woeful cheerleader
dont bring your country's perennial human miseries to this board
if China is going bad, india is already mired in deep deep deep sh*t. Read your own economic woes!

The above only show something here:
1. the building and real estate market is in process of a correction. This is excellent for the country on the long term and to avoid a hard landing
2. The supply of housing is less, much less than demand in China
3. Most fininacing in buying houses in China is different from other countrie
4. China has one of the highest household saving rate in the world
5. We are holding 4 Trillion fx reserves and not just that!
6. the default in soybeans indicates overtrading in the segment which are due to:
a. most of our folks are changing their nutiritional habits like consuming more meat products due to improvement in income
b. the widespread questionable imports of genetically altered produce like soybeans
c. local soybean productions are better than imports

In all, our bankers are doing what they should be doing as prudent bankers are doing!

It is basic. It is rhetoric. But the woeful and the hateful need to be reminded time and again of these latest availble numbers:

in USD
China 4 Trillion
HK 316 Bln
Taiwan 423 Bln

india 307 Bln
Turkey 125 Bln
 
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Growing danger of Chinese credit collapse
At first, they took the form of quiet expressions of concern, but in recent weeks warnings about the state of China’s finances and its implications for the global economy have become a rising drumbeat.

A complex of interacting factors is involved: the slowing Chinese economy, and the problems that poses for basic manufacturing industry, especially steel; the prospect of a collapse of the real estate and development boom; and the possibility that financial arrangements involving international banks and financial institutions may soon begin to unravel because of a fall in the value of the Chinese currency.

Following the 2008 financial crisis and its impact on the Chinese economy, when more than 23 million jobs were lost in just a few months, the government initiated a massive stimulus program, including a spending package of $US500 billion—the largest in the world.

The program’s most significant feature was a directive to state-owned banks to open the credit spigots—to businesses, financial institutions and local government authorities—to finance investment in industrial capacity, real estate development and infrastructure projects.

China experienced an expansion of credit unprecedented in world economic history—by an estimated $15 trillion in the past five years. This is equivalent to the size of the entire US banking system.

Credit growth has been running at twice the rate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. By the last quarter of 2013, credit, or “social financing” as Chinese authorities describe it, had reached 200 percent of GDP, up from 125 percent before the eruption of the global financial crisis.

Now the slowdown in the Chinese economy—this year’s official growth target is “about 7.5 percent,” compared to previous growth rates of 10 percent—is hitting all sections of manufacturing industry, particularly steel.

During the first two months of this year, members of China’s Iron and Steel Association made a collective loss of $490 million. As a result, the first quarter is likely to be “the worst performing quarter in the new century,” according to the organisation’s deputy director, Liu Zhenjiang.

Last year, the steel industry as a whole barely managed to stay profitable, recording a profit margin on sales of just 0.48 percent. The industry has become increasingly dependent on credit, with the seven largest mills owing a total of $226 billion, an amount larger than the market capitalisation of the global mining giant BHP Billiton.

Macquarie Commodities Research has reported that, according to a survey of the industry taken in mid-March, medium and small mills were all suffering a contraction in orders compared to the corresponding period last year and profits had declined to historic lows.

The month of March usually sees a rise in orders following the Chinese New Year holidays but this year there has been increasing gloom.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Colin Hamilton, an analyst at Macquarie Capital (Europe), said debt defaults in the steel industry were a distinct likelihood, because the Chinese government indicated that it is prepared to see some companies go under, due to the overcapacity in the sector.

An even bigger concern is the growing danger of a collapse in the Chinese real estate bubble, following a ten-fold growth in the property market over the past decade.

While the property boom is still continuing in Beijing and Shanghai, it is a different story in the smaller cities, which accounted for two-thirds of all property under construction last year.

Large apartment blocks are now standing empty or are only partially constructed. According to the chief economist for the Japanese financial giant Nomura, the housing market is the Chinese economy’s “top risk” for this year.

A real estate market collapse will have immediate international consequences because foreign investors have become an ever-more important source of credit. Since 2010, they have lent Chinese real estate developers at least $48 billion in US dollar bonds. According to Credit Suisse, offshore credit accounts for more than half the total debt outstanding for six major developers.

The problems for major developers caused by declining real estate prices are being compounded by the fall in the value of the yuan. Every time the currency falls, the debt-burden of dollar-denominated loans increases.

The third major source of financial instability is the activities of local governments. As part of the central government’s stimulus measures following the 2008 crisis, they massively increased property and infrastructure development.

While local governments are responsible for 80 percent of total government spending, they only receive 40 percent of tax revenue. Other sources of finance have had to be found. Local governments are not legally allowed to borrow, so they set up local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), which are able to borrow.

There are estimated to be some 10,000 LGFVs. They have close ties to the major banks as well as to the “shadow banks,” which raise money not by taking deposits but by issuing short-term bonds.

The Chinese central government has been trying for the past year to rein in the expansion of credit, which it regards as unsustainable in the long term. But the local authorities are under the control of regional Chinese Communist Party chiefs, who have pocketed considerable wealth from property and infrastructure development.

This has meant that the attempts of central authorities to curb credit expansion have had a perverse result. Faced with official restrictions, local CCP chiefs, eager to preserve and enhance their wealth, have resorted increasingly to the “shadow banking system,” thereby increasing financial risk.

According to financial analyst Satyajit Das, writing in the Independent on Tuesday: “Many of the LGFVs do not have sufficient cash flow to service debt, being reliant on land sales and high property prices to meet obligations. Probably more than 50 percent of LGFVs have unsustainable debt levels.”

Some commentators have discounted the prospect of a major crisis because of China’s large currency reserves and the state controls on the economy. Several of the world’s major banks, however, have pointed to the impact of any US Federal Reserve decision to lift interest rates.

Last year, when the Fed first signalled its intention to reduce or “taper” its asset purchasing program, emerging markets experienced a major capital outflow. Much of this “hot money” went to China in the belief that, unlike the emerging markets where currency values had fallen, the value of the yuan would continue to rise.

So far this year, however, the currency has fallen by more than 2.5 percent, partly as a result of attempts by Chinese financial authorities to rein in speculation, resulting in losses of around $5.5 billion for companies involved in the carry trade, in which dollars are borrowed to purchase Chinese assets. While this is a relatively small amount, it could be a sign of things to come.

Concerns are now being raised that a second phase of reaction to Fed “tapering” could impact on China. A recent Citigroup report noted: “There’s a dangerous scenario in which the combination of rising US short-term rates and the more volatile RMB (yuan) could lead to a rather large capital outflow from China.”

Nomura issued a note last week saying the carry trade was “reversing gear” in conditions where Chinese investors, commercial banks and exporters had all been involved in the game of dollar borrowing.

Nomura China analyst Wendy Liu said investors were putting too much hope on the prospect of a fresh stimulus and infrastructure program, and were ignoring currency dangers. The fall in the yuan could be an early warning sign that “China’s credit bubble may implode imminently,” she said.

According to Credit Suisse, the size of the speculative carry trade has reached $200 billion, involving complex manoeuvres through Hong Kong, and “various indicators” were pointing to “stress” in the system, increasing “the risk of a misstep.”

The mounting Chinese debt crisis underscores the fact that none of the contradictions which led to the 2008 crisis has been resolved. They have simply assumed new forms.

The massive Chinese credit expansion over the past five years was the direct result of the financial crisis sparked by the near-meltdown of the US financial system. The economic stimulus that followed played a crucial role in sustaining the world economy.

It has been estimated that emerging markets were responsible for three quarters of global growth over the past five years, much of that emanating from China. But this Chinese growth was the outcome of a credit bubble which now threatens to burst, with potentially disastrous consequences for the global financial system as a whole.

Growing danger of Chinese credit collapse - World Socialist Web Site



you are so woeful cheerleader
dont bring your country's perennial human miseries to this board
if China is going bad, india is already mired in deep deep deep sh*t. Read your own economic woes!

The above only show something here:
1. the building and real estate market is in process of a correction. This is excellent for the country on the long term and to avoid a hard landing
2. The supply of housing is less, much less than demand in China
3. Most fininacing in buying houses in China is different from other countrie
4. China has one of the highest household saving rate in the world
5. We are holding 4 Trillion fx reserves and not just that!
6. the default in soybeans indicates overtrading in the segment which are due to:
a. most of our folks are changing their nutiritional habits like consuming more meat products due to improvement in income
b. the widespread questionable imports of genetically altered produce like soybeans
c. local soybean productions are better than imports

In all, our bankers are doing what they should be doing as prudent bankers are doing!

It is basic. It is rhetoric. But the woeful and the hateful need to be reminded time and again of these latest availble numbers:

in USD
China 4 Trillion
HK 316 Bln
Taiwan 423 Bln

india 307 Bln
Turkey 125 Bln
 
.
4/13/2014

Nothing is going right for Hangzhou at this moment.Walmart will be closing its Zhaohui store in that city on April 23 as a part of its overall plan to dump marginal locations—about 9% of the total—in China.


Thanks to the world’s largest retailer, another large block of space in Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang province, will go on the market at a time when there is generally too much supply.The problem is especially pronounced in the city’s premium office market.Hangzhou’s Grade A office buildings at the end of 2013 had, according to Jones Lang LaSalle, an average occupancy rate of 30%.

The real weakness, however, is Hangzhou’s residential sector.The cause is simple: massive overbuilding.Sara Hsu of the State University of New York at New Paltz writes that Hangzhou faces “burgeoning swaths of empty apartment units.”

Hangzhou’s market has not yet collapsed.There are still secondary sales, for instance.Singapore’s Straits Times reports Allen Zhao, a businessman, has been looking to sell his two-bedroom flat in Hangzhou for 2 million yuan.His neighbor just let go a similar unit for 1.7 million.If Zhao also sells for that amount, he will make a profit, but he will be disappointed.“That is not much more than the price I paid in 2012,” Zhao told the paper.“Now I’m regretting not selling earlier—more bad news about the property market keeps coming in every day.”

New homes also face price pressure.Developers in Hangzhou are now offering deep discounts, and investors and owners are noticing.And not just in that city.“It seems that the 30% price cut in Hangzhou really changed the way Chinese people think about real estate,” writes Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research, “and I doubt there is any turning back from here.”

Not every developer is offering such deep discounts, but as Stevenson-Yang tells us the city has become the symbol of a market in distress.China Central Television on the first of this month devoted a segment to the problems of the “unstoppable price decrease” in Hangzhou property in its Economic 30 Minutes show, and discounts in that city, the Wall Street Journal notes, could be “a signal of broader market weakness ahead.”

The real estate market in Hangzhou looks like it has just passed an inflection point.It is not so much that fundamentals have deteriorated—they have been weak for some time—as that people’s mentality has changed.

As state-run China Central Television explained, the problems in Hangzhou, once the world’s largest city, began on February 18.Then, the North Sea Park development began offering deep discounts.Rumors that the developer had cash problems started a chain reaction across the city.It did not matter that North Sea Park issued denials.Other developers began offering either deep discounts or large incentives, but the tactics did not work.By then, there were almost no buyers.

Now, the problem of no buyers is spreading across the country.Sara Hsu notes China’s residential markets are becoming inelastic.“Once consumers stop buying,” she writes, “deep discounts are ineffective in drawing them back.”People aren’t buying because they believe prices will decline further.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, new home prices across the country are still going up, but percentage increases have now declined for three consecutive months, signaling a peaking.

Official statistics do not seem consistent with the general trend of reports, but in any event severe problems are evidently ahead.The secondary property market has tumbled, with sales falling by more than half in Q1 2014 from the same quarter in 2013.Speculators have either left the domestic market or have sold off holdings.Rich Chinese, now interested in foreign holdings, are also shunning their home market.Foreigners, who own only an infinitesimal portion of China’s property but who are a bellwether nonetheless, are investing at the slowest pace in at least a decade.Middle class Chinese are also largely out of the market.

And that’s not all.China property trust sales plunged 49.1% in Q1 2014 from the previous quarter, from 99.7 billion yuan in Q4 2013 to 50.7 billion yuan.The precipitous fall was due in part to the failure last month of developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate, which had 3.5 billion yuan of indebtedness.

Moreover, just about everyone expects more developers to close their doors.For one thing, the central bank is not injecting liquidity as fast as it once did.And interest rates are increasing, the reason why a Finance Ministry one-year bond auction failed on Friday.Many private developers had gambled that property prices would rise faster than interest rates, but that now looks like a losing bet. Zhejiang Xingrun, for one, became insolvent after it had borrowed at ultra high rates.

China is at the point where problems are feeding on themselves.Pessimism about property, which accounts for about 15% of China’s gross domestic product, is beginning to affect the broader economy.Declining property values look scary, despite cheery statements from government officials who assure us the property bubble is “not big”or analysts who say that the problems are not “systemic.”But the Chinese don’t look like they are buying either of those views.“If this continues, it will have immense impact on the whole Chinese economy,” saysan unidentified Hangzhou real estate salesman on Economic 30 Minutes.“Without question, everyone thinks there is a bubble.”

The People’s Republic in the “reform era” has not suffered a nationwide property crash.Analysts say the problems in Hangzhou are “regional,” but now fundamentals and market sentiment either are or will be pushing markets down across the People’s Republic.

“The banking system and the shadow banking system are becoming concerned about exposure,” says David Cui of Bank of America BAC -2.17%.“Once people refuse to provide credit to developers, their balance sheets will be under pressure, forcing them to cut prices.Once enough of them cut prices, fewer people would buy because most people buy property only when they think the price is going up.If this persists, it will turn into a vicious loop.”

Premier Li Keqiang has a few tools at his disposal, but they look insufficient to stop a general collapse of property prices across the country.The problems, deferred from late 2008 with massive state spending, have simply become too large.And we must remember that he works inside a complex, collective political system that is generally unable to meet challenges swiftly.

But that does not matter.There is little any leader can do.Collapses occur when people lose confidence.That is now happening in China.

China Property Collapse Has Begun - Forbes
 
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Domestic consumption would be rapidly down.
Bad debt rises ...

Everything bad seem to start ...
 
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Korea's investment in China falling behind Japan, may lose future market share: KITA report

2014/04/13 16:26

SEOUL, April 13 (Yonhap) -- South Korean companies' investment in China is lagging further behind that of Japanese firms, and their areas of investment raise concerns that they will be edged out by their Japanese rivals in the consumer market, a trade report said Sunday.

A report by the Beijing office of the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) showed Japanese companies invested US$52.9 billion in China over the 10-year period of 2004-2013, about 1.5 times more than the $36.15 billion by their South Korean counterparts.

"South Korea's proportion in China's foreign direct investment dropped to 2.6 percent last year from 10.3 percent in 2004," a KITA official said, without giving his name.

Japan began to overtake South Korea in 2005. In the year prior, South Korea had outdone its neighbor in Chinese investment by $800 million.

For three years from 2011, the amount of investment by Japan increased notably, the KITA report showed. Japan put in a total of $20.74 billion compared to $8.54 billion by South Korea.

The areas of investment also differed widely, the report showed, a factor officials said may sideline South Korea further in competition with Japan.

South Korean companies tended to invest in the manufacturing sector while Japan chose the distribution and service segments. Japan's investment in the latter two accounted for 26 percent of the total, comparable to 10.8 percent for South Korea.

The difference is that Japan is focused more in the consumption market that is likely to see explosive future growth in China, and should the gap widen, South Korea may lose its leading consumer market share, the KITA official said.

"We need to think about the fast-growing local consumption market in China and reassess our investment strategy," he said.

(END)

Korea's investment in China falling behind Japan, may lose future market share: KITA report
 
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South Korea and Taiwan companies are direct competitors in electronic industry.
 
. . . .
Right now China don't waste trillions in fighting any war, why you think China will collapse? China may slow their economy growth but not likely cause their economy to collapse. China right now in much better economy compare to 10 yrs ago, nothing in short of a major war and complete isolation from the world to cause China economy to collapse itself.
 
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BBC News - China group buys $6bn Glencore Peru copper mine

China group buys $6bn Glencore Peru copper mine

A Chinese consortium is buying Glencore Xstrata's copper mine in Peru in a $6bn (£3.6bn) all-cash deal, marking one of China's largest mining acquisitions.

The consortium is led by MMG Limited and includes China's Citic Metal.

The acquisition is subject to regulatory approvals but all parties expect the deal to be done by the end of September.


@shuttler that loudmouth is at it again, eh!?
 
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Beijing grade-A office prices rise in Q1

English.news.cn 2014-04-14 00:09:4


Link

BEIJING, April 13 (Xinhua) -- Bucking the trend of a cooling down property market across China, rents and sales price of grade-A office space in Beijing edged up in the first quarter, said the world's leading real estate consulting company DTZ.


Beijing's average grade-A office rents climbed to 301.03 yuan (about 49 U.S. dollars) per square meter in the first quarter, up 0.7 percent from the previous quarter, the company said in a latest report.

In the first three months, the overall average sales price for grade-A office space in Beijing saw a 0.7-percent increase over the prior quarter to 63,936 yuan per square meter.

"Looking forward, we expect about 300,000 square meters of new office space to be launched by the end of 2014, which will help meet the demand. However, leasable space in core districts is still rare and we expect rents to increase steadily in 2014," it noted.



@shuttler you post got reported .... I do not want to make your life miserable here ....

It is futile to argue with such low lives ....

you are reported!

BBC News - China group buys $6bn Glencore Peru copper mine

China group buys $6bn Glencore Peru copper mine

A Chinese consortium is buying Glencore Xstrata's copper mine in Peru in a $6bn (£3.6bn) all-cash deal, marking one of China's largest mining acquisitions.

The consortium is led by MMG Limited and includes China's Citic Metal.

The acquisition is subject to regulatory approvals but all parties expect the deal to be done by the end of September.


@shuttler that loudmouth is at it again, eh!?

Pathetic and very miserable!
 
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