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China drops one-child policy, but ‘exhausted’ tiger moms say one is plenty

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China drops one-child policy, but ‘exhausted’ tiger moms say one is plenty

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BEIJING — Han Jing’s son started taking after-school classes when he was just 5 years old: extra English, math and drawing so he wouldn’t fall behind the other children at kindergarten.

“I didn’t want him to feel ashamed or have low self-esteem on his first day of elementary school,” she said, worried that he’d face other children who spoke English, knew thousands of Chinese characters or could play the piano.

Three years later, the pressure has only mounted: She and her husband spend more than $10,000 a year on after-school classes. It’s a huge drain on their time, and an even bigger one on their resources, given that her husband earns less than $35,000 a year.

Their apartment is too small for a second child, and the cost of moving to a bigger one in Beijing has risen out of their reach. But it is not just money that is preventing them from having a second one: Han says they have also devoted all of their time and energy into their son, and they are simply exhausted.

“Seeing how much pressure my kid is under makes us feel bad, too, so I don’t want another kid of mine to go through this,” she said. “He’s so tired. We’re too tired. Whether it’s us or the child, I don’t think of any of us can handle another one.”

Global Times newspaper called the recommendations “ridiculous and illegal,” and the public letter has since disappeared from the website of the city’s health and family planning commission.

The government says the national birthrate rose by 6.9 percent in the first six months of this year compared with the same period last year, with 800,000 more births recorded.

State media even reported a “baby boom” in Beijing, with long lines forming at the capital’s top hospitals to reserve beds, and some maternity wards booked until next April.

But those reports were misleading, said Wang Feng, of the University of California at Irvine.

This year’s rise in childbirths is below the government’s target of 2.5 million extra births in 2016, he said, and still modest considering all the pent-up demand that the one-child policy should have created.

The lines at the capital’s top hospitals are a function of bottlenecks in China’s overstretched health system: Many of the women who have elected to give birth this year are older than average, and have been encouraged to head for Grade A hospitals in case of complications.

Indeed, when the one-child policy was first relaxed in 2013, allowing parents who grew up as only children to have a second child, just 18 percent of the 11 million eligible couples applied to do so, Wang said, a response he called “lukewarm.”

Mass migration to cities, where costs of living are high, has depressed birthrates, while people are getting married later, or not at all, Wang said.

“In the short run, hopefully China can add more people to its population, but in the long run it is very unlikely that fertility will go above 1.5 children per couple,” he said.

That’s a problem for China. The people born in Mao’s era are growing old, and there will be far fewer people of working age to bear the economic burden.


But Xi Wei, father of a 9-year-old boy, said that he and his wife won’t be trying for another child. Their son does extra classes after school and all day on Saturday, and parents and child all feel exhausted by the social pressure for him not to “fall behind.”

As only children themselves, Xi and his wife also don’t think there is anything wrong with growing up alone. “After all these years, everybody is inclined to just have one child. Everybody’s used to it,” he said. “How can you have a second child when the whole society has hostile and incompatible resources towards it?”


https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...6f1890-8ae7-11e6-8a68-b4ce96c78e04_story.html


 
China seems to be going the way of Europe and Japan, falling birth rates. More a function of industrialization and urbanization than anything else. The danger, of course, is not to fall below the replacement rate.
 
The danger, of course, is not to fall below the replacement rate.

They have been below the replacement rate now for ages!

Study: China’s 2-child policy won’t lead to population boom



BEIJING — The loosening of China’s one-child policy to allow all married couples to have two children will bring only a relatively small increase in population growth, a study predicted Friday, while recommending that the country increase its retirement age to address an expected labor shortage.

With 1.37 billion people, China currently has the world’s largest population. It will peak at 1.45 billion in 2029, compared with a peak of 1.4 billion in 2023 if the “one-child” policy that restricted most urban couples to one child and rural couples to two if their first was a girl had continued, according to the study, published in the medical journal Lancet.

China brought in the policy in 1979 with the aim of limiting a surging population and promoting economic development. It was revised over the years to allow more couples to have an additional child, until the government allowed all married couples to have two children beginning this year, mainly to combat an aging population.

One of the study’s authors, Zeng Yi of Peking University, said that it was the first such analysis to fully consider rural-urban differences and the effects of migration when quantifying the impact on population growth.

The study says it assumes that the total fertility rate, or births per woman, will rise from the current 2.01 in rural areas and 1.24 in urban areas to 2.15 and 1.67, respectively, in the next decade. That takes into account a lower socioeconomic level in rural areas and the fact that ethnic minorities are allowed three or more children. It estimates a combined total fertility rate of 1.81 in 2030.


Cai Yong, a demographer at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill who wasn’t involved in the study, said he thought its total fertility rate projection of 1.81 in 2030 was “overly optimistic.”

Lower fertility in China “is no longer a depressed result of restrictive policy,” Cai said, adding that Chinese are likely to opt to pour their resources into just one “high quality” child instead of multiple children. They are also increasingly postponing or forgoing marriage and childbearing, he said.


“While no one has a crystal ball to see the future, we have ample empirical evidence to suggest that China’s fertility will stay low after a small bump in the first few years of introducing one-child policy,” Cai wrote in an email.

The Lancet paper’s researchers in Britain and China say the effects of the new policy on China’s shrinking work force and aging population won’t be seen for two decades.

They recommend that the government increase “the exceptionally low compulsory retirement age” of 50 or 55 for women and 60 for men, increasing pension coverage and encouraging the traditional practice of three generations living under the same roof.

While authorities credit the one-child policy with preventing 400 million extra births, many demographers argue that the fertility rate would have fallen anyway as China’s economy developed and education levels rose.

Over its 36 years of existence, the policy vastly inflated the ratio of boys to girls as female fetuses were selectively aborted in line with a preference for male offspring. China is predicted to have around 30 million more men than women by the end of the decade.


The policy also compelled many women to have forced abortions or give up their second children for adoption, leading to deep emotional scarring.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...l?postshare=3821476476867692&tid=ss_tw-bottom
 
They have been below the replacement rate now for ages!

Study: China’s 2-child policy won’t lead to population boom



BEIJING — The loosening of China’s one-child policy to allow all married couples to have two children will bring only a relatively small increase in population growth, a study predicted Friday, while recommending that the country increase its retirement age to address an expected labor shortage.

With 1.37 billion people, China currently has the world’s largest population. It will peak at 1.45 billion in 2029, compared with a peak of 1.4 billion in 2023 if the “one-child” policy that restricted most urban couples to one child and rural couples to two if their first was a girl had continued, according to the study, published in the medical journal Lancet.

China brought in the policy in 1979 with the aim of limiting a surging population and promoting economic development. It was revised over the years to allow more couples to have an additional child, until the government allowed all married couples to have two children beginning this year, mainly to combat an aging population.

One of the study’s authors, Zeng Yi of Peking University, said that it was the first such analysis to fully consider rural-urban differences and the effects of migration when quantifying the impact on population growth.

The study says it assumes that the total fertility rate, or births per woman, will rise from the current 2.01 in rural areas and 1.24 in urban areas to 2.15 and 1.67, respectively, in the next decade. That takes into account a lower socioeconomic level in rural areas and the fact that ethnic minorities are allowed three or more children. It estimates a combined total fertility rate of 1.81 in 2030.


Cai Yong, a demographer at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill who wasn’t involved in the study, said he thought its total fertility rate projection of 1.81 in 2030 was “overly optimistic.”

Lower fertility in China “is no longer a depressed result of restrictive policy,” Cai said, adding that Chinese are likely to opt to pour their resources into just one “high quality” child instead of multiple children. They are also increasingly postponing or forgoing marriage and childbearing, he said.


“While no one has a crystal ball to see the future, we have ample empirical evidence to suggest that China’s fertility will stay low after a small bump in the first few years of introducing one-child policy,” Cai wrote in an email.

The Lancet paper’s researchers in Britain and China say the effects of the new policy on China’s shrinking work force and aging population won’t be seen for two decades.

They recommend that the government increase “the exceptionally low compulsory retirement age” of 50 or 55 for women and 60 for men, increasing pension coverage and encouraging the traditional practice of three generations living under the same roof.

While authorities credit the one-child policy with preventing 400 million extra births, many demographers argue that the fertility rate would have fallen anyway as China’s economy developed and education levels rose.

Over its 36 years of existence, the policy vastly inflated the ratio of boys to girls as female fetuses were selectively aborted in line with a preference for male offspring. China is predicted to have around 30 million more men than women by the end of the decade.


The policy also compelled many women to have forced abortions or give up their second children for adoption, leading to deep emotional scarring.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...l?postshare=3821476476867692&tid=ss_tw-bottom

Listen dude, if you want to breed like rats, just do it. Don't drag us into it. Ok?

We Chinese don't subscribe to what Western brainwashing machines produce.

FYI, a couple of advanced turboshatfs in development:

http://www.cannews.com.cn/epaper/zghkb/2016/10/15/A07/story/1190889.shtml

:coffee::enjoy::tup:
 
Delusional Indians believed they've demographic advantages for breeding like rabbits
Actually its a economic disaster waiting to happen

India's most important structural imbalance in a graphic
A report by Deloitte has this graphic which captures the essence of India's most worrying economic-demographic imbalance.
2ivj7Y2.png

An oversized 58% of the workforce involved in agriculture contributes just 15% to the GDP. India's biggest challenge in the coming years will be to manage the transition of a large share of this 58% into manufacturing and services. Given the already large share of services sector, manufacturing may have to absorb the major share of those moving out of agriculture.
http://gulzar05.blogspot.com/2012/04/indias-most-important-structural.html

Keep day dreaming with an empty stomach, when hundred of millions of your over population not knowing know when will be the next meal doesn't help either
 
One Child policy also enabled CHina rapid rise..beside cutting down cost of surplus population it had the impact of raising quality of life and parents putting full effort in their only child..it also altered the genetic makeup of China leading to more diversity which means increased resistance and stronger genetics...One child policy may appear simple on the face but effects are far reaching and will be known in the next 200-300 years...so it must be studied in deep details..
 
Delusional Indians believed they've demographic advantages for breeding like rabbits
Actually its a economic disaster waiting to happen

India's most important structural imbalance in a graphic
A report by Deloitte has this graphic which captures the essence of India's most worrying economic-demographic imbalance.
2ivj7Y2.png

An oversized 58% of the workforce involved in agriculture contributes just 15% to the GDP. India's biggest challenge in the coming years will be to manage the transition of a large share of this 58% into manufacturing and services. Given the already large share of services sector, manufacturing may have to absorb the major share of those moving out of agriculture.
http://gulzar05.blogspot.com/2012/04/indias-most-important-structural.html

Keep day dreaming with an empty stomach, when hundred of millions of your over population not knowing know when will be the next meal doesn't help either
The Indian elite do not care so much of life with caste system. Their strategy is hoping out of 10new born, one can be special or elite and rest can be disposed like trash. The inequality is huge in Indian society.

While China as a whole moves together and progress together at the same time.
 
They dropped the policy 10 years too late. It should have been cancelled around 2005, when signs of gender imbalance and aging population started showing. In fact, I would go as far as argue that One Child Policy was not needed beyond 1990's.

As the economy develops and society advances, birth rate will naturally drop. Even Saudi Arabia, an Islamic country without any national birth control program, has seen its rate drop to about 2.6 per woman.
 
Delusional Indians believed they've demographic advantages for breeding like rabbits
Actually its a economic disaster waiting to happen

India's most important structural imbalance in a graphic
A report by Deloitte has this graphic which captures the essence of India's most worrying economic-demographic imbalance.
2ivj7Y2.png

An oversized 58% of the workforce involved in agriculture contributes just 15% to the GDP. India's biggest challenge in the coming years will be to manage the transition of a large share of this 58% into manufacturing and services. Given the already large share of services sector, manufacturing may have to absorb the major share of those moving out of agriculture.
http://gulzar05.blogspot.com/2012/04/indias-most-important-structural.html

Keep day dreaming with an empty stomach, when hundred of millions of your over population not knowing know when will be the next meal doesn't help either
Just released. Global hunger index. See which country is rank just next to North Korea.

 
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Despite the negative connotations utilized by some posters towards posters of Indian ethnicity (granted a lot of Indian posters leave a lot to be desired), India's rising population is a double edged sword, as one other poster put it; have 10 kids and hope one becomes a millionaire or strike it lucky in bollywood. This is going to cost India a huge drain in resources and present her with a manpower base thats practically useless since the parents cant afford anything more than primary and secondary government education. I really hope that someone has the chutzpah to weather the political shitstorm brought about by petty politicians catering to vote-banks and implement a graduated limit policy on children like China has.
 
raising one or few tigers or raising a horde of filthy rats``your choice
China has successfully prevented rat breeding style of unskilled uneducated and low-quality population. Instead, 1980s-1990s born Chinese are confident, educated, innovative, and fully prepared to the new era of technological revolution.
 
I think Quality should be emphasis over quantity. However, there is no quality for quantity of zero. No matter how great a civilization/country or group of people is, they are mathematically destine toward extinction if they produce less than two off springs. If a country/group of people only have 1 child, the are bound to be extint in log_2(population) generations (because you half your population each generation) given no immigration. Ofcause there will be lag time between end of human fertilty year and death year, but that does not change the basic mathematic. @cirr you learn this in Algorithm class do you? Therefore, eventhough Quality is emphasis over quantity, the Fertility Rate of woman must be atleast 2.0 to ensure a constant graph of population quantity over time. Last time I check, China has less than 2.0 per woman. China is home to majority of our Mongoloid race. If China forcefully adopt 1 child policy, then its like the grand majority of Mongoloid will be half each generation.
 
I think Quality should be emphasis over quantity. However, there is no quality for quantity of zero. No matter how great a civilization/country or group of people is, they are mathematically destine toward extinction if they produce less than two off springs. If a country/group of people only have 1 child, the are bound to be extint in log_2(population) generations (because you half your population each generation) given no immigration. Ofcause there will be lag time between end of human fertilty year and death year, but that does not change the basic mathematic. @cirr you learn this in Algorithm class do you? Therefore, eventhough Quality is emphasis over quantity, the Fertility Rate of woman must be atleast 2.0 to ensure a constant graph of population quantity over time. Last time I check, China has less than 2.0 per woman. China is home to majority of our Mongoloid race. If China forcefully adopt 1 child policy, then its like the grand majority of Mongoloid will be half each generation.

We have a close to 1.4 billion population. Our land, and the domestic resources, just can not support more people. That's the fundamental fact of our country.
 
To be fair, India's hunger problem is caused by an inefficient distribution chain rather than lack of production. A lot of grains and vegetables perish in storage according to some of the reports I've read. They could easily feed the hungry if they manage to get those food supplies to the poor instead of letting them rot.
 

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