China Civil Aviation, AVIC (MA600) & COMAC (ARJ21/C919/C929)

[055_destroyer]

C919 needs to upgrade to domestic engines because we won't be able to buy foreign engines in a trade war.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/c919s-local-engine-alternative-powered-up-448721/

 

[UKBengali]

C919 needs to upgrade to domestic engines because we won't be able to buy foreign engines in a trade war.

Target into service is now 2028.
Remember that this engine will have Western tech of the early 2010s and so Chinese consumers will
pay more for their flights.
It will take many decades before China can match US and Europe in engine tech.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

It will take many decades before China can match US and Europe in engine tech.

Are you high? What are you talking about "many decades"? A decade, if that.

 

[UKBengali]

Are you high? What are you talking about "many decades"? A decade, if that.

So you think that the Chinese engine for C919 that comes into service around 2028 will match what the West has now?
China may just have an engine that could come a little close what is available now.
Commercial engines not only need thrust, but they need reliability and be very efficient. Russia has failed so far to come close to the West in this regard.

 

[055_destroyer]

So you think that the Chinese engine for C919 that comes into service around 2028 will match what the West has now?
China may just have an engine that could come a little close what is available now.
Commercial engines not only need thrust, but they need reliability and be very efficient. Russia has failed so far to come close to the West in this regard.

If there is an urgent need, it can be done. The real deadline is more probably near 2021. Russia is declining country will less and less money and talent for development. While China is a country with ever growing economy with more funds for high tech development. Your comparison is not compatible.

 

[UKBengali]

If there is an urgent need, it can be done. The real deadline is more probably near 2021. Russia is declining country will less and less money and talent for development. While China is a country with ever growing economy with more funds for high tech development. Your comparison is not compatible.

I agree that China has much better chance than Russia in matching Western engine tech eventually.

No way C919 will be flying with domestic engine in 2021 as the latest date of starting
production of actual engines for airlines is 2022, and target to be flying on commercial flights put back to 2030 -
reason for the massive delay is the engine has got no ancestry and so needs much more testing before it can be verified reliable.

 

[Feng Leng]

If there is an urgent need, it can be done. The real deadline is more probably near 2021. Russia is declining country will less and less money and talent for development. While China is a country with ever growing economy with more funds for high tech development. Your comparison is not compatible.

Before, we were tackling the problem of commercial jet engines with our B-team because we could buy from RR, CFM and GE. Now we need to deploy the A-team to make our own. Just convert over from the military side even if the fuel efficiency is sacrificed a bit.

 

[UKBengali]

Before, we were tackling the problem of commercial jet engines with our B-team because we could buy from RR, CFM and GE. Now we need to deploy the A-team to make our own. Just convert over from the military side even if the fuel efficiency is sacrificed a bit.

Fuel efficiency and reliability is EVERYTHING in commercial aviation.
Not saying that China will not be able to match GE, P&W and RR one day but do not expect it for some decades into the future.

 

[ozranger]

I agree that China has much better chance than Russia in matching Western engine tech eventually.

No way C919 will be flying with domestic engine in 2021 as the latest date of starting
production of actual engines for airlines is 2022, and target to be flying on commercial flights put back to 2030 -
reason for the massive delay is the engine has got no ancestry and so needs much more testing before it can be verified reliable.

They are not rushing to release a new self-made engine. If they feel the needs, they will just do it. But as they can still source LEAPs, they'd like to buy themselves some time because they'd like to establish and run a complete supply chain of engines for civilian aviation in near future.

American ban is not a big problem here, although I can imagine they've silently cut future purchases to Boeing. The great decoupling between China and the US, that is it.

 

[samsara]

Fuel efficiency and reliability is EVERYTHING in commercial aviation.
Not saying that China will not be able to match GE, P&W and RR one day but do not expect it for some decades into the future.

Market size and being independent in such a strategic product are truly everything indeed! A nation can sacrifice some at first to support its domestic industry ... And do you think how did the Japanese grow their car industry at first?

Moreover the COMAC C919 will need many years to simply fulfill the many (815 units) domestic orders at hand... this gives ample time to grow the competitive engine. So let's worry less and let it be the portion of the COMAC's competitors.

Btw, the current outright ECONOMIC WARFARE launched by the Trump regime against China may alter altogether the commercial airliner business. Keep in mind this aspect and keep on watching!

 

[UKBengali]

They are not rushing to release a new self-made engine. If they feel the needs, they will just do it. But as they can still source LEAPs, they'd like to buy themselves some time because they'd like to establish and run a complete supply chain of engines for civilian aviation in near future.

American ban is not a big problem here, although I can imagine they've silently cut future purchases to Boeing. The great decoupling between China and the US, that is it.

No. China will install domestic engine as soon as it thinks it is safe to do so.
Installing an untried engine on a commercial airliner is not the same as on a military aircraft as the consequences of engine failure is far more lethal and devastating.
To top it all off, C919 has two engines and so there is less redundancy.
Latest I hear is that 2030 is the date when domestic engine will fly with a commercial flight and thus seems sensible to me.
I expect nearly a decade of continuous flight tests with the domestic engine before it flies paying passengers.

I want China to succeed to break the Boeing and Airbus duopoly but please remember that it will take 2-3 more decades before Chinese tech catches up with the West.

 

[Deino]

Any idea, when no. 04 (104??) will be ready?

 

[ozranger]

No. China will install domestic engine as soon as it thinks it is safe to do so.
Installing an untried engine on a commercial airliner is not the same as on a military aircraft as the consequences of engine failure is far more lethal and devastating.
To top it all off, C919 has two engines and so there is less redundancy.
Latest I hear is that 2030 is the date when domestic engine will fly with a commercial flight and thus seems sensible to me.
I expect nearly a decade of continuous flight tests with the domestic engine before it flies paying passengers.

I want China to succeed to break the Boeing and Airbus duopoly but please remember that it will take 2-3 more decades before Chinese tech catches up with the West.

As far as I can remember there was a backup plan before, which was a WS-20 variant with further increased bypass ratio. For once it was exhibited named as SF-1. I can imagine if they used that design, the progress would be a lot faster and the engine can still be highly reliable, as it is rooted from CFM-56, despite the fuel consumption will be greater than that on other latest engines.

But, as most airlines in China are state run, they can still afford to run such aircraft with less profit if it is really required, say in the situation of US sanctions or so. Remember the entire aviation system in China is not working only for profit, which is different to their western counterparts.

But they finally chose to develop a new one from the ground up following the design concept of LEAP, which means they are even more ambitious. I think they are trying to play a full catch-up in order to finally establish an entire civilian engine supply chain with all required R&D and manufacturing capabilities.

 

[UKBengali]

As far as I can remember there was a backup plan before, which was a WS-20 variant with further increased bypass ratio. For once it was exhibited named as SF-1. I can imagine if they used that design, the progress would be a lot faster and the engine can still be highly reliable, as it is rooted from CFM-56, despite the fuel consumption will be greater than that on other latest engines.

But, as most airlines in China are state run, they can still afford to run such aircraft with less profit if it is really required, say in the situation of US sanctions or so. Remember the entire aviation system in China is not working only for profit, which is different to their western counterparts.

But they finally chose to develop a new one from the ground up following the design concept of LEAP, which means they are even more ambitious. I think they are trying to play a full catch-up in order to finally establish an entire civilian engine supply chain with all required R&D and manufacturing capabilities.

Yes the other design was rejected by COMAC as it was based on Western tech of the late 1990s - fuel consumption would have been huge on that!

Current engine is planned to guzzle a little more than Leap and so that is why I said early 2010s tech in an engine that will come out around 2028-2030. This is actually pretty good and would put China at the same level of Russia by then.

Remember that COMAC has a long term plan(2040-2050) to directly compete with Boeing and Airbus and so it really wants to wait a little longer in order to get the best domestic engine tech.

I have no doubt that China is already researching an even more advanced engine for service in the 2030s that will match what US and UK have by the middle of the 2020s. And so China will keep catching up till maybe by the 2040s there is no gap left anymore.

As China is rich, has abundant human resources and is determined it is almost guaranteed to succeed.

 

[055_destroyer]

Yes the other design was rejected by COMAC as it was based on Western tech of the late 1990s - fuel consumption would have been huge on that!

Current engine is planned to guzzle a little more than Leap and so that is why I said early 2010s tech in an engine that will come out around 2028-2030. This is actually pretty good and would put China at the same level of Russia by then.

Remember that COMAC has a long term plan(2040-2050) to directly compete with Boeing and Airbus and so it really wants to wait a little longer in order to get the best domestic engine tech.

I have no doubt that China is already researching an even more advanced engine for service in the 2030s that will match what US and UK have by the middle of the 2020s. And so China will keep catching up till maybe by the 2040s there is no gap left anymore.

As China is rich, has abundant human resources and is determined it is almost guaranteed to succeed.

That engine is rejected for civilian but not military. WS-20 can be used for civilian, in fact, WS-20 engine is an civilian engine. There is already long term planned for C919 AWACS and ASW and it needs a domestic engine to bypass the embargo from western. All these are in pipeline and can be materialized as soon as C919 is commission. They may not beat new Leap-X engine specification but not very far off.