China about to replace US as strongest naval power and Washington is too late to stop it

[riscol]

Why is an idiot calling experts idiot?
The article is based on this report https://s3.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/documents/CNAS-Report-Work-Offset-final-B.pdf written by Robert O. Work and Greg Grant. Mr Work has served as Deputy Secretary of Defense and Mr Grant worked for the Department of Defense too.

If these experts are so wrong then i want to know what the background is of UKBengali, F-22Raptor, XTQ1999, Viet who appears to know more than these experts with years of experience working in the Defense department. The report also describes clearly that US has never dealt with an opponent as powerful as China even Soviet Union cannot match it during the Cold War.

 

[KungFuLee]

Why is an idiot calling experts idiot?
The article is based on this report https://s3.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/documents/CNAS-Report-Work-Offset-final-B.pdf written by Robert O. Work and Greg Grant. Mr Work has served as Deputy Secretary of Defense and Mr Grant worked for the Department of Defense too.

If these experts are so wrong then i want to know what the background is of UKBengali, F-22Raptor, XTQ1999, Viet who appears to know more than these experts with years of experience working in the Defense department. The report also describes clearly that US has never dealt with an opponent as powerful as China even Soviet Union cannot match it during the Cold War.

Actually, this article have nothing in common with the one that Works and Grant wrote on Center for a New American Security except that quote, that is China is catching up on Military Technology in par with US, however, if you really read the CNAS article. The author suggest that this is a "Desired End States" the Chinese wanting to be. Not at all currently achievable now.

The CNAS article is about how China can beat the US and traditionally the US is unbeaten in term of Technological and Numerical advantages since WW2. However, by focusing on "rouge" nation (Possibly mean Afghanistan and Iraq) US stopped focus on peer to peer competition, and that result in a technological gap being closing down by the Chinese. With China a designated enemy US has never seen as both being Technological Advance, and Economically sustainable, which Soviet Union is not.

The CNAS article suggest that there are 3 stage the Chinese Military would like to achieve.

1st Stage - Would see the Chinese military compete with the United States from a position of technological inferiority
2nd Stage - Would occur when the Chinese achieved a position of rough technological parity in guided munitions and battle network warfare, making it far more likely China might be able to deter a U.S. military intervention in the East Asian littoral
3rd Stage - Would represent the desired end state, when the Chinese military would establish a position of outright technological superiority over U.S. military forces

At this current time, China is still at stage one.

The CNAS article also identify 5 things the Chinese Military do to try to overlasp US in term of technology, I am not going to write it down here. You need to read the article to see.

On the other hand. The article OP refer to takes point out of the CNAS article and further elaborate on its content. And in most case, contradict what the writer wrote on the CNAS article. For example, while the Chinese Navy is building ship on a massive scale that US and most other country is not. CNAS article indicated that Chinese is merely playing catch up and try to modernize its fleet.

I do not have a military background, but I have a Law Degree and an Accounting Degree, so I am perfectly capable to read and digest an article, and I am telling you, the OP article is not base on the CNAS report by Works and Grant. Not even remotely. Works and Grant article is about how China can defeat the US in the future, not China can defeat the US now and there are nothing the US can do about it.

 

[zectech]

3rd Stage - Would represent the desired end state, when the Chinese military would establish a position of outright technological superiority over U.S. military forces

There are two types of technology in the States. The military/corporate technology of Boeing and Lockheed. And then there is the classified from corporations technology of underground bases and underground cities. So far Washington has only shown the toys of Boeing and other corporations for military use. The highly classified from military use has yet to be produced. This may go into production if the survival of USA is in doubt. They are not going to show their hand for a war in Iraq. The Middle East wars is for military toys made from Lockheed and average quality equipment.

China has to be well beyond both these technologies to destroy USA. If they are at par with the first category, they should be fine to live in peace with a bipolar or multi-polar world.

 

[KungFuLee]

There are two types of technology in the States. The military/corporate technology of Boeing and Lockheed. And then there is the classified from corporations technology of underground bases and underground cities. So far Washington has only shown the toys of Boeing and other corporations for military use. The highly classified from military use has yet to be produced. This may go into production if the survival of USA is in doubt. They are not going to show their hand for a war in Iraq. That Middle East wars is for military toys made from Lockheed.

China has to be well beyond both these technologies to destroy USA. If they are at par with the first category, they should be fine to live in peace with a bipolar or multi-polar world.

Well, that is what the author of CNAS article suggest.

The problem is, what the CNAS article also suggested is that If China can achieve stage 1 and may even be two. The effect is local, which mean if China really do achieve on par with all those technology the author mentioned. It would be of regional effect. Which mean there may be enough to deter the US from East Asia Littoral, but it is not enough to challenge the overall power of the US vis-à-vis international issue.

Only achieving or near achieving the third stage, China can freely and completely challenge the US, thus a true multipolar world could be form. Even reaching stage 2, US may still challenge China for a regional conflict, and depends on the response, it may or may not swing in favour the Chinese, so even at stage 2, China would be a regional power at best, not going to be a pole in a multi-polar world.

 

[8888888888888]

USA is going to go bankrupt if they build up. The 600 ships is a myth because they never reached that numbers.

 

[KAL-EL]

USA is going to go bankrupt if they build up. The 600 ships is a myth because they never reached that numbers.

The USA is a primitive technological country. Especially its Navy.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Actually, this article have nothing in common with the one that Works and Grant wrote on Center for a New American Security except that quote, that is China is catching up on Military Technology in par with US, however, if you really read the CNAS article. The author suggest that this is a "Desired End States" the Chinese wanting to be. Not at all currently achievable now.

The CNAS article is about how China can beat the US and traditionally the US is unbeaten in term of Technological and Numerical advantages since WW2. However, by focusing on "rouge" nation (Possibly mean Afghanistan and Iraq) US stopped focus on peer to peer competition, and that result in a technological gap being closing down by the Chinese. With China a designated enemy US has never seen as both being Technological Advance, and Economically sustainable, which Soviet Union is not.

The CNAS article suggest that there are 3 stage the Chinese Military would like to achieve.

1st Stage - Would see the Chinese military compete with the United States from a position of technological inferiority
2nd Stage - Would occur when the Chinese achieved a position of rough technological parity in guided munitions and battle network warfare, making it far more likely China might be able to deter a U.S. military intervention in the East Asian littoral
3rd Stage - Would represent the desired end state, when the Chinese military would establish a position of outright technological superiority over U.S. military forces

At this current time, China is still at stage one.

The CNAS article also identify 5 things the Chinese Military do to try to overlasp US in term of technology, I am not going to write it down here. You need to read the article to see.

On the other hand. The article OP refer to takes point out of the CNAS article and further elaborate on its content. And in most case, contradict what the writer wrote on the CNAS article. For example, while the Chinese Navy is building ship on a massive scale that US and most other country is not. CNAS article indicated that Chinese is merely playing catch up and try to modernize its fleet.

I do not have a military background, but I have a Law Degree and an Accounting Degree, so I am perfectly capable to read and digest an article, and I am telling you, the OP article is not base on the CNAS report by Works and Grant. Not even remotely. Works and Grant article is about how China can defeat the US in the future, not China can defeat the US now and there are nothing the US can do about it.

China is already in stage 2, and it is well marching into the stage 3.

In 2025, about 50% of the US navy ships will be more than 30 years old, does this sound like a navy in healthy shape to you?

 

[xyxmt]

not even close. you will not replace anything this century. US will continue to dominate.

what was China's military power 30 years ago?
I would say by 2050 there will be no match between US and China.

 

[zectech]

what was China's military power 30 years ago?
I would say by 2050 there will be no match between US and China.

In 30 years, China could surpass even what is in highly classified technology in the States.

Best not to alienate China.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

There are two types of technology in the States. The military/corporate technology of Boeing and Lockheed. And then there is the classified from corporations technology of underground bases and underground cities. So far Washington has only shown the toys of Boeing and other corporations for military use. The highly classified from military use has yet to be produced. This may go into production if the survival of USA is in doubt. They are not going to show their hand for a war in Iraq. The Middle East wars is for military toys made from Lockheed and average quality equipment.

China has to be well beyond both these technologies to destroy USA. If they are at par with the first category, they should be fine to live in peace with a bipolar or multi-polar world.

By 2025, the US is about going to lose almost all LA class SSN and Ohio class SSBN.

SSN-773 Cheyenne is the newest LA class SSN, and it was commissioned in 1996.

SSBN-743 Louisiana is the newest Ohio class SSBN, and it was commissioned in 1997.

And 2025 is just 5 years away, and in the last 5 years, the USN has only added 6 Virginia class SSNs.

By judging that deployment speed, they are going to have barely 25 actively functional SSNs which is probably same as the contemporary PLAN.

 

[KAL-EL]

In 30 years, China could surpass even what is in highly classified technology in the States.

Best not to alienate China.

You’re absolutely right! USA should surrender right now.

 

[HannibalBarca]

The most important word of that report is "soon"...
Everything else is meaningless...

Now let's define that "soon"...
After we'll see...

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The most important word of that report is "soon"...
Everything else is meaningless...

Now let's define that "soon"...
After we'll see...

Well, 2025 is not really far away.

Many PDF members here have been in this website for nearly a decade, and they have witnessed how China's power has been amplified in multiple folds.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Well, 2025 is not really far away.

Many PDF members here have been in this website for nearly a decade, and they have witnessed how China's powerful has been amplified in multiple folds.

So by 2025 China would replace US as the strongest naval power?

 

[riscol]

The definition was already made by the author at the end of the article, in a decade or 2. If the Chinese is keeping this pace up on each of their shipyards it's not that difficult to predict how many modern warships the Chinese Navy will have. Those who cannot do simple math probably still think the gap between China and US is widening. That's why it is interesting to see how many new ships will be added in 5, 10, 15, 20 years if we follow the progress.