China’s More Worried About Own People, Says GOP Hawk

[F-22Raptor]

WASHINGTON: Randy Forbes pretty much looks like a hawk. The House seapower subcommittee chairman has fought for a bigger battle fleet with long-range drone bombers, called for China to be kicked out of the international RIMPAC wargames and blasted the Obama administration for its lack of a tough Pacific strategy.

But does that mean China must be opposed at every turn? Is China our enemy? Forbes made it clear today that he doesn’t see China as an adversary, just a competitor — and the competition isn’t zero-sum. In political circles where Xi Jinping sometimes gets compared to Hitler, that’s a big distinction with big implications for how you do strategy.

“We always think there’s…. somebody in the Chinese government that’s plotting how to overthrow the United States,” Forbes said today at the American Enterprise Institute. “That’s not happening, because what they get up every day and worry about is… ‘how do I keep things from imploding at home?'”

China has huge internal problems, from jobs to pollution to the banking system, Forbes said. Nationalist saber-ratting over the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, or the South China Sea is a useful distraction from domestic discontents, he said, but it’s not the primary focus of Chinese policymakers.

What’s more, Forbes said, China has a limited “window” of economic ascendancy before domestic problems catch up with it — and Chinese leaders know that. It was “actually a little surprising to us,” Forbes said, but the consensus of expert testimony before Congress has been that there’s “not an infinity of the kind of growth we’ve been seeing.” Instead, China will slow down, if not hit the wall, in about 10 years.

So part of China’s current aggressive policy may be gathering rosebuds — or “islands” — while ye may, before the Pacific balance of power shifts against Beijing. Chinese leaders also see what Forbes considers the tempting weakness of the Obama administration worldwide and the successful example of Putin’s aggression in Crimea.

This combination of time pressure and opportunity leads the Chinese to push on multiple fronts. They purposefully escalate tensions and then step back — but when the crisis ebbs, their position is always a little stronger than before. It’s “just like a check valve on a pump,” Forbes said. “They overplay their hand sometimes but they have a strategy.”

“That doesn’t mean they’re adversaries. It just simply means that they’re competitors,” Forbes said. We want to win, of course, he went on, but “winning is not a zero-sum game. Winning is not where China loses and we win. Winning is when both of them do well.”

Indeed, in the decades that American power has underwritten peace, order, and trade in the Pacific, Forbes said, “the No. 1 winner has been China.”

Now we just have to convince the Chinese of that.

China’s More Worried About Own People, Says GOP Hawk « Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary

 

[Raphael]

“That doesn’t mean they’re adversaries. It just simply means that they’re competitors,” Forbes said. We want to win, of course, he went on, but “winning is not a zero-sum game. Winning is not where China loses and we win. Winning is when both of them do well.”

Indeed, in the decades that American power has underwritten peace, order, and trade in the Pacific, Forbes said, “the No. 1 winner has been China.”

Forbes kinda has a point, but in other ways, he's dreadfully myopic. So far, we have indeed benefited from the hegemonic, unipolar US order, simply because it's a trade-friendly order. But the moment we stop benefiting is the moment when the moral foundation for the US order collapses and will be kicked to the curb. Because the idea that barbarians with no real affinity with Asia could or should rule Asia in perpetuity is ludicrous

 

[TheTruth]

@Raphael

Couldn't agree more. Certain races have always been enemies of Asians.

 

[UKBengali]

The man is an idiot if he thinks that China will get weaker in 10 years time.

It can only get stronger with time as it's economy grows larger and larger.

 

[TheTruth]

Also this:

"Indeed, in the decades that American power has underwritten peace, order, and trade in the Pacific, Forbes said, “the No. 1 winner has been China.”

Now we just have to convince the Chinese of that."

Is an outright lie.

 

[Nan Yang]

I agree.

 

[F-22Raptor]

The man is an idiot if he thinks that China will get weaker in 10 years time.

It can only get stronger with time as it's economy grows larger and larger.

This is not what "he thinks." He's referring to testimony from economic experts given before US Congress, and I agree with the assessment. As China's population continues to age, workforce declines, and overall population begins to decline in roughly 10-15 years, China's annual growth rate will inevitably decline. China is already experiencing this slowdown as of today, and as the years go by you will see China's growth rates drop. China is already struggling to meet 7% growth this year. China is expected to have a population of 400 million over the age of 60 by mid-century, which is going to be a huge burden for the CCP in terms of growth, health, and social programs. The entire US population will be only 400 million by that time. There's also some experts that believe the Chinese population will be cut in half of what it is today by the end of the century.

Considering the above, and testimony before Congress it comes as no surprise that Chinese growth is on the downswing. It's simply inevitable over the mid to long term.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

This is not what "he thinks." He's referring to testimony from economic experts given before US Congress, and I agree with the assessment. As China's population continues to age, workforce declines, and overall population begins to decline in roughly 10-15 years, China's annual growth rate will inevitably decline. China is already experiencing this slowdown as of today, and as the years go by you will see China's growth rates drop. China is already struggling to meet 7% growth this year. China is expected to have a population of 400 million over the age of 60 by mid-century, which is going to be a huge burden for the CCP in terms of growth, health, and social programs. The entire US population will be only 400 million by that time. There's also some experts that believe the Chinese population will be cut in half of what it is today by the end of the century.

Considering the above, and testimony before Congress it comes as no surprise that Chinese growth is on the downswing. It's simply inevitable over the mid to long term.

Sure, a relative slowdown is most certainly what will happen in the long-term. If we can sustain the current growth rate for at least 10 more years that is the most important thing.

But what exactly is there to stop China from "eventually" achieving a GDP per capita around the same level as my own city of Hong Kong? We are both the same people.

China only seeks to become a developed economy. Resuming our status as a "great power" is merely a side-effect. America is afraid of losing their hegemony (as seen in their response to 2012 Scarborough shoal and 2014 Crimea), but that's not our concern.

If America can do something, let them do it. If they can't, then what's the point of all this mouthing off. Are they trying to get ordinary Chinese people to hate America, taking all the attention off the Chinese government? Since that's what they did for Russia just now with the sanctions, they made America the "enemy" in the eyes of the Russian people, taking all the pressure off Putin, and in fact boosted Putin's popularity through the roof (highest ever domestic popularity ratings).

 

[Steve781]

@Raphael

Couldn't agree more. Certain races have always been enemies of Asians.

With the exception of a few countries, the US is far more popular among Asians than China is.

 

[Beidou2020]

America is the barking dog thats too afraid to bite.

America will continue to lose its power and influence and China will continue to increase its power and influence with each passing year.

America has given up, it knows China will surpass it.

Heck, America is powerless to stop China's construction in the SCS.
All it can come up with is flying planes and ships near it
Spends half a trillion on the military every year but too afraid to destroy those constructions.

 

[bobsm]

America is the barking dog thats too afraid to bite.

America will continue to lose its power and influence and China will continue to increase its power and influence with each passing year.

America has given up, it knows China will surpass it.

Heck, America is powerless to stop China's construction in the SCS.
All it can come up with is flying planes and ships near it
Spends half a trillion on the military every year but too afraid to destroy those constructions.

Exactly. As the barking against you becomes louder, you know you are on the right path.

 

[70U63]

Replace China with US, and the issue facing the country...

China has huge internal problems, from jobs to pollution to the banking system, Forbes said. Nationalist saber-ratting over the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, or the South China Sea is a useful distraction from domestic discontents, he said, but it’s not the primary focus of Chinese policymakers.

 

[TheTruth]

With the exception of a few countries, the US is far more popular among Asians than China is.

Not with Malaysia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Russia, Cambodia, Laos, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Iran, etc etc etc

 

[opruh]

Lol, race riots are everywhere in the US right now.

 

[TaiShang]

Here is another US hawk. Take their words for truth.

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