Chengdu J-20 5th Generation Aircraft News & Discussions

[Brainsucker]

@Asok I don't have any opinion about the J-20 engine. But for 500 - 1000 J-20, you should count on how many J-10 (and it's variants) and J-11, J-15, J-16 (with all variants with it has now). Look at them, They are less sophisticated than J-20, but their number still has not reach 500. So unless they stop the production of J-10 and Flanker variants, I doubt that J-20 will reach 500 in 10 years. 200 maybe, if they stop the J-10 line production, but not 500.

But do you think that PLA will stop all those J-10 and Flanker variants development? There are still J-10D and J-11D, then J-15T, etc. So would they stop them to favor J-20?

Plus, I don't think that J-20 will be their sole Jet-Fighters in the future. I don't have any doubt that China will have better Jet-Fighter than J-20 in the future.

 

[Asoka]

"ignore [B]@Asok[/B] bro he is a problem child here on PDF.

Thank you, for joining the conversation, Bro. It's nice to hear from you. Please contribute productive and informational contents. no one liners, please. Thanks.

@Brainsucker, bro, I don't know how many J-20 will China end up with. But if China keep the production line open for 10-20 years, at the rate of 50 per years, it will have 500-1000.

I contend China have the money for 50 J-20 a years, for the next 10-20. How many China will end up having, depends on the geo-political climate, I believe.

US plans to build 2300 F-35, for itself, at $130 millions a pieces.

No one, here at PDF, think that's way too many, or US could not afford them. The number 2300 is 1300, or 130% more than the maximum estimate, I have for J-20.

This is odd.

Isn't this double standards or double thinking or double accounting?

One for China, and one for US.

 

[Ultima Thule]

"ignore @Asok bro he is a problem child here on PDF.

Thank you, for joining the conversation. Please contribute productive and informational contents. no one liners, please. Thanks.

so you're contributing productive and informational content, with no solid prove, you always bring your false assertion and wishful thinking every senior members on PDF like @ChineseTiger1986 , @cirr, @Beast, @wanglaokan and others is saying "that WS-15 is completed its ground testing last year and will be starting air testing on IL-76 testbed soon"
but you insisted you false arguments with no solid prove
what is the prove that WS-15 is on the J-20 from day one just your blogger wishful thinking and false assertions

 

[atan651]

As long as Asok is not abusing this forum (and I don't think he is) then he can continue with his writing.

 

[Asoka]

As long as Asok is not abusing this forum (and I don't think he is) then he can continue with his writing.

Thank you, Bro, I appreciate your moral support!

@pakistanipower, don't get too upset, Bro. This is an Internet Forum, with no prize to win or lose, just the pleasure to express our opinions. I can't afford, to cause you, a heart attack. Take care, please.

 

[Brainsucker]

"ignore [B]@Asok[/B] bro he is a problem child here on PDF.

Thank you, for joining the conversation, Bro. It's nice to hear from you. Please contribute productive and informational contents. no one liners, please. Thanks.

@Brainsucker, bro, I don't know how many J-20 will China end up with. But if China keep the production line open for 10-20 years, at the rate of 50 per years, it will have 500-1000.

I contend China have the money for 50 J-20 a years, for the next 10-20. How many China will end up having, depends on the geo-political climate, I believe.

US plans to build 2300 F-35, for itself, at $130 millions a pieces.

No one, here at PDF, think that's way too many, or US could not afford them. The number 2300 is 1300, or 130% more than the maximum estimate, I have for J-20.

This is odd.

Isn't this double standards or double thinking or double accounting?

One for China, and one for US.

J-20 belong to Chengdu. So we should count on how many jet-fighters that Chengdu has produce for this 10 years. Right now, they still produce J-10 (and maybe some other aircraft that we don't know). So let stop this J-10 line production and let Chengdu focus on J-20 solely. To have the same number of J-10 today will be already an optimistic prediction. Because to produce J-10 is cheaper and easier than J-20. Not to mention that it's also a mature technology that Chengdu has already mastered. While J-20 is a brand new Jet-Fighter that still considered alien for the factory to produce (not to mention it's more delicate, complex, and harder to build).

So for the next 10 years, China will have less J-20 than they have J-10 today. For the next 20 years, who know? They may have already possess a better jet-fighter than the J-20.

 

[Asoka]

J-20 belong to Chengdu. So we should count on how many jet-fighters that Chengdu has produce for this 10 years. Right now, they still produce J-10 (and maybe some other aircraft that we don't know). So let stop this J-10 line production and let Chengdu focus on J-20 solely. To have the same number of J-10 today will be already an optimistic prediction. Because to produce J-10 is cheaper and easier than J-20. Not to mention that it's also a mature technology that Chengdu has already mastered. While J-20 is a brand new Jet-Fighter that still need to be prepared to produce.

Nice reasoning, Bro. It sounds very reasonable. But a wise man once said, the past performance is of no prediction of the future.

"While J-20 is a brand new Jet-Fighter that still need to be prepared to produce."

This is true. We don't even know, the production process is mature enough, to produce 100 reliable engines for 50 J-20 per years. I think the engine production capacity will be the chief limiting factor, not money.

WS-15 uses a lot of new technology and exotic alloy. It will take times to figure everything out for reliable mass production.

 

[Brainsucker]

Nice reasoning, Bro. It sounds very reasonable. But a wise man once said, the past performance is of no prediction of the future.

Well, yes. They can expand the factory, build better support, etc in the future. But it require more money from the PLA. The question is, will PLA focus entirely to produce J-20? They still have H-20, Carrier dedicated aircraft, AWACS, Y-20, etc to produce. Unless of course, China raise their military budgets exponentially in the future. But it won't happen unless the tension raise into a hot war in near future. Then at that time, China will divert into war economy.

 

[Asoka]

Well, yes. They can expand the factory, build better support, etc in the future.

That's true for the airframe and other major components. More production lines means faster production.

But as we see from Liming Factory Documentation TV show, the production of the modern engines are painstaking, requires extreme tight tolerance, mostly assembled by experienced and highly skilled technicians.

Producing more engines, will be far more difficult, than producing more air-frames, I believe.

"The question is, will PLA focus entirely to produce J-20? "

At $150 millions per unit, 50 per year, is $7.5 billions per year. Will PLA have $7.5 billions for j-20 per year, in addition for another items?

I don't know, we will find out. I don't think production will hit 50/yr, for 2-3 years, because the engine production issue.

 

[Brainsucker]

That's true for the airframe and other major components. More production lines means faster production.

But as we see from Liming Factory Documentation TV show, the production of the modern engines are painstaking, requires extreme tight tolerance, mostly assembled by experienced and highly skilled technicians.

Producing more engines, will be far more difficult, than producing more air-frames, I believe.

They still can buy engines from Russia. What wrong with it? If the domestic production can't be reach, they can always import it from Ukraine or Russia. That's why it's better for J-20 to have 2 version of engine. Russian engine version and domestic engine version. So when the need arise, they can be produced faster. For now, they don't need it to rush. But you know it, tension is raising, both in China - Indian border and in North Korea. So who know about what happen in the future.

 

[Asoka]

They still can buy engines from Russia. What wrong with it? If the domestic production can't be reach, they can always import it from Ukraine or Russia. That's why it's better for J-20 to have 2 version of engine. Russian engine version and domestic engine version. So when the need arise, they can be produced faster. For now, they don't need it to rush. But you know it, tension is raising, both in China - Indian border and in North Korea. So who know about what happen in the future.

That's true, if China really want to push up j-20 production rate, could WS-15 rate couldn't keep, it could use WS-10 or Al-31, which China has plenty in storage. I have never thought of that. Of course, there needs to be many modifications of the airframe and more testing before that could happen.

 

[Ultima Thule]

Thank you, Bro, I appreciate your moral support!

@pakistanipower, don't get too upset, Bro. This is an Internet Forum, with no prize to win or lose, just the pleasure to express our opinions. I can't afford, to cause you, a heart attack. Take care, please.

Heart attack to whom, Every senior memberslike @ChineseTiger1986 , @cirr , @Beast ,@wanglaokan , and others is wrong and you're right what a loser you're China is relatively new is in a turbofan development fields and why you think 5th generations jets engine is that easy? its a most complex thing to develop and why you think W-15 development period of 10-15 years? with relatively new turbofan development industry there is a possibility shorter lifetime and increased thurst versions of WS-10X as said to @Beast ,and @wanglaokan said

 

[Asoka]

Heart attack to whom, Every senior memberslike @ChineseTiger1986 , @cirr , @Beast ,@wanglaokan , and others is wrong and you're right what a loser you're China is relatively new is in a turbofan development fields and why you think 5th generations jets engine is that easy? its a most complex thing to develop and why you think W-15 development period of 10-15 years? with relatively new turbofan development industry there is a possibility shorter lifetime and increased thurst versions of WS-10X as said to @Beast ,and @wanglaokan said

"why you think 5th generations jets engine is that easy?. Its a most complex thing to develop and why you think W-15 development period of 10-15 years? "

You are right. Bro. 5th generations jets engine is not easy. It's very complex. and It is exceedingly hard.

China has been working on the Ws-10 and Ws-15, in parallel since the late 1980's. It took 15 years to produce the engine core of Ws-15, and the core meet all performance parameters in 2005.

The development of WS-15 has been going on for, at least, 27 years now, not 10-15 years.

China gained a lot of experiences in developing the Ws-10, which went into production around 2009. After nearly 20 years of hard struggle, full of unimaginable difficulties.

And the engine core of WS-10 is a copy of an american engine. And with an sample engine core to copy, China still spent 20 years on Ws-10.

"The WS-10 may have been based on the core of the CFM-56II (itself based on the General Electric F101); China purchased two CFM-56IIs in the 1980s before the arms embargo. "http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/ws10.htm

The Ws-10 project helped a lot with the WS-15 project.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

You're beating a straw-man here; China has a set military budget and varies in accordance with their economy. China simply cannot afford 1000 J-20's given its military budget which is less than 1/3 of the United States. If one were to base it on pure GDP alone, then the US could also afford 1000 F-22s which obviously is not the case.

Didn't you say that PPP was the figure to look at? (I agree, by the way.) In PPP adjusted terms, the most conservative estimate of Chinese military spending is 285B USD (<1.4% of GDP), not less than a third of 600B USD.

The actual figure, also in PPP terms, is very likely north of 350B USD, perhaps even 400B USD (assuming 2% of GDP). China's military spending is quite healthy; it just doesn't have commensurate capabilities because it hasn't been spending such sums for very long. It's going to take a while to accumulate hardware.

And it shouldn't be looked at as number of J-20's vs. number of F-22's, what should be considered is how many fifth-generation aircraft will China field. Here I don't think the past is a good guide because China was much poorer then, and it's defense budget was nowhere near what it is now and what it will grow into in the future.

 

[Brainsucker]

Didn't you say that PPP was the figure to look at? (I agree, by the way.) In PPP adjusted terms, the most conservative estimate of Chinese military spending is 285B USD (<1.4% of GDP), not less than a third of 600B USD.

The actual figure, also in PPP terms, is very likely north of 350B USD, perhaps even 400B USD (assuming 2% of GDP). China's military spending is quite healthy; it just doesn't have commensurate capabilities because it hasn't been spending such sums for very long. It's going to take a while to accumulate hardware.

And it shouldn't be looked at as number of J-20's vs. number of F-22's, what should be considered is how many fifth-generation aircraft will China field. Here I don't think the past is a good guide because China was much poorer then, and it's defense budget was nowhere near what it is now and what it will grow into in the future.

If my memory serve right, prior the WTC black September, the USA military budget was around 100 - 200B dollar. Similar to today China's military budget. But after the WTC, they raise exponently to 500B USD. So I guess the current US military budget is basically a war time budget for military expenditure.