Future Chinese carrier aircraft: Super J-10?
With work on Chinas first aircraft carrier getting closer to completion, and the well publicized hopes of the PLAN (Chinese Navy) to gain an aircraft carrier capability, we can consider whether the notional J-10C twin engine J-10 development is likely to produce a credible fighter.
The main competitors to the much rumored (but never substantiated) J-10C (twin engine) are the Su-33 Flanker (Naval) and Mig-29k Fulcrum (Naval).
Artists impression of the Super-J10:
Note the wider air intakes and fatter fuselage.
Enlarging the fuselage/wings to accommodate two engines is likely to increase the airframe weight by around 75% (depending largely on the engines used). Also, navalization (the adding of arrester gear, wing folding mechanisms, beefed up undercarriage etc) is likely to add 3000lb to the overall weight. The increase in internal fuel carriage is not proportionate to the increase in the number of engines, meaning that the aircrafts range is likely to decrease.
Thrust to weight ratios are likely to improve, and be reflected in a heavier maximum weapons load.
The basic J-10 uses a single Lyulka-Saturn AL-31F engine which is essentially the same engine as powers the Flanker. This engine produces 27,557 lb static thrust with afterburner, which is extremely powerful. The much rumored Chinese W-10A is (reportedly) actually a copy of this engine with thrust vectoring, closely equivalent to the latest models of AL-31 which produce in the region of 32,000lb static thrust and feature thrust vectoring. The thrust vectoring (steerable) nozzles do add weight however. The first option for the Super-J-10 is thus twin AL-31FUs (or W-10A equiv) which we will call Option1. I estimate that this would increase the airframe weight by about 75% and allow a 20% increase in internal fuel.
Another option is to use a smaller engine such as the RD-33/34 which powers the Fulcrum and FC-1 fighters, and is also available with thrust vectoring nozzles. This engine produces 18,300lb static thrust with afterburner (19,180lb emergency thrust). I estimate that this option (Option2) would increase the airframe weight by around 50% and increase internal fuel by around 20%. The airframe would also be slimmer than Option1 and likely to incur less drag.
Option1 would have a truly fantastic thrust to weight ratio, even better than either the Mig or Sukhoi. Option 2 would have a terrible thrust to weight ratio for a fighter, eliminating it from further analysis (even worse than the single engine J-10A which itself is very poor for a fighter). The issue here is that unlike the Sukhoi, Option1 would have to routinely operate with external fuel tanks (see below), significantly reducing the effective thrust to weight ratio when compared to the Sukhoi this is the Achilles heal of the design.
Other performance issues
Option1s massive increase in power over the J-10A is likely to increase its maximum speeds, probably to the region of Mach 1.25; similar to the Mig and Sukhoi. Its rate of climb would be increased and the thrust vectoring control would further enhance agility. And it would be capable of carrying a heavier weapons load. Range is the obvious area of concern. The airframe holds significantly less fuel than the Su-33 (which could have the exact same powerplant). The increase in fuel consumption is not matched by the increase in internal fuel capacity, thus making a limited ranged aircraft even more reliant on external fuel tanks.
too big and yet too small?
Where it looses out to the Mig, though not the Sukhoi, is overall size. Space is at a premium onboard an aircraft carrier; the bigger and heavier the aircraft, the fewer you can carry. The Mig is around 40% lighter and much smaller than Option1. Whilst Option1 is marginally lighter, and a fair bit smaller than the Su-33, it also has a smaller nose, prohibiting the employment of the massive but extremely capable NO-11M Phased Array radar. Redesign of the forward fuselage to accommodate larger radar would drastically increase weight and bring the aircrafts thrust to weight ratio to around about the same as the Su-33, or lower.
Conclusion
On paper a twin AL-31 powered Super J-10 appears an impressive naval fighter. It would have excellent performance and benefit from an awesome thrust to weight ratio, once itd ditched its drop tanks. But it would have to carry drop tanks for nearly all missions, significantly detracting from its strike and swing-role potential. And being rather large and heavy, a carrier could carry fewer of them than say the Mig. It would also not be able to match the Sukhoi in terms of radar performance.