CASS: China's GDP surpasses US by 2020

[ChineseTiger1986]

Finally, the Chinese government have officially made the prediction.

China's GDP will be #1 in 2020, and India will be in top 5.

??:?GDP2020_?

 

[Nomenclature]

Finally, the Chinese government have officially made the prediction.

China's GDP will be #1 in 2020, and India will be in top 5.

??:?GDP2020_?

CASS != Chinese government

 

[anon45]

9 years huh? Well hopefully this thread will be around so we can post the results.

 

[ao333]

This is BS. The goal is unachievable even if the Chinese economy grows 9.5% with a 2.5% annual currency appreciation. The most optimistic year is 2025.

If you're talking the beloved Indian PPP, then you guys will overtake the US in 4 years...

PS: Afiance.cn is not a government site.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

CASS != Chinese government

Yeah, but they are the voice of CCP.

 

[below_freezing]

If we take per capita GDP > 10000 USD as the standard for developed countries, then we will enter developed nation status within 2016 if the RMB further appreciates 20%. This would be the same GDP/capita as Japan in 1984.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

In 2010, our GDP is 40 trillion yuan, and we can easily triple it by 2020.

With 120 trillion yuan, and a ratio exchange of 6:1 with USD, that is about 20 trillion USD by 2020.

And India projects their GDP to be around 6 trillion USD by 2020.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

This is BS. The goal is unachievable even if the Chinese economy grows 9.5% with a 2.5% annual currency appreciation. The most optimistic year is 2015.

If you're talking the beloved Indian PPP, then you guys will overtake the US in 4 years...

PS: Afiance.cn is not a government site.

Some authority already estimated China's PPP was around 14.8 trillion USD in 2010, which already surpasses US.

China overtakes U.S. as biggest economy?

 

[aimarraul]

great news,maybe our gasoline prices will be 4 times higher than theirs by 2020

还富于民

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

great news,maybe our gasoline prices will be 4 times higher than theirs at that time

What's wrong with the fast growth rate?

CCP already tries to cool it down, but the growth is still high.

 

[Vinod2070]

The economic balance is shifting East.

Again!

This is how it has been throughout most of history. The last few centuries were but an aberration.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The economic balance is shifting East.

Again!

This is how it has been throughout most of history. The last few centuries were but an aberration.

I guess the 2020 nominal GDP gonna be:

1. China
2. US
3. Japan
4. India
5. Germany

 

[Nomenclature]

Yeah, but they are the voice of CCP.

Not really, CASS is a government funded think tank. Some sections of the government may use their reports as lobbying tools but no, they really do not speak for the party.

 

[Nomenclature]

If we take per capita GDP > 10000 USD as the standard for developed countries, then we will enter developed nation status within 2016 if the RMB further appreciates 20%. This would be the same GDP/capita as Japan in 1984.

You need to consider inflation though. 10000 USD in 2000 and 10000 USD in 2016 are completely different things. One also can not make judgments on development status by looking at one year's GDP per capita alone. Wealth are accumulated through a period of time. My guess is China will not be a developed country until 2030s.

 

[S10]

If China maintains 10% growth until 2020, and the Yuan appreciates by about 30%, it's entirely possible.

Desirable? Not really.