Can today's India compare to China around 15 years ago?

[HariPrasad]

Nothing wrong with the article.
India is also brighter than Singapore.
Most of us stay in high rise, not spread out like in Gangadesh.
Gangadesh is the brightest in the whole world.
You should ask your countrymen slaving in Singapore to return to the brightest land on earth.
.

We are ceos and managers. We are not pizza boys anywhere.. We dictate the terms where ever we are. We do not live in dirty china towns.

 

[randomradio]

What are you blabbing about? Just give me your projection numbers for the 4 indicators in 2030.

It can't be projected without knowing the post-reforms trends first. I already told you that.

You can't just guess the numbers.

 

[HariPrasad]

Indians always compare it with today's China over everything, while there is virtually nothing comparable. But if we compare today's India with China around 15±3 years ago, are they comparable then?
Well, there is a hot debate on quora.com about 2017's India vs China in 2004. https://www.quora.com/India’s-economy-is-2-trillion-dollars-which-China-had-in-2004-but-I-dont-see-the-same-living-standard-infrastructure-in-India-as-China-had-in-2004-What-should-we-correct
It seems even those more practical, modest and humble Indians are very confident on this comparison, let alone those ignorant and arrogant ones mentioned above. But the harsh reality is that in terms of development, India can hardly match China in the early 2000s.
As the saying goes: seeing is believing. My way of judging things would always be primarily based on what I see, either in person or from videos (not the propaganda ones, but filmed by ordinary people). Statistics comes secondary, and can be used as support. Let's first see some videos to get a direct impression, and then look into some apparent statistics:

Shenzhen around 2006:

AC buses, decent cars, office buildings, the degree of orderliness, we can not find such level of development anywhere in today's India.
Same is true for:
Shanghai in 2002:

Shanghai in 2000:

Besides urban development, lets compare the infrastructure like railways:
We have the magnet train since 2004:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_maglev_train
And a bunch of self developed high speed EMUs like:
200km/h class "Blue Arrow" EMU (entered service since 2001):
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/DJJ1型电力动车组

270 km/h "China Star" EMU (entered service since 2005, and later cancelled due to development new generation CRH trains)
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/DJJ2型电力动车组

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT_iOqa5g-Q
These are not seen in today's India either.

Expressway:
China had over 19,000 km length of expressways in 2001, ranked 2nd in the world, while India has less than 2,000 km today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expressways_in_India
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expressways_of_China
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1016/j.polsoc.2012.01.007

Car sales:
Total auto sales number of China in 2003 was 4,39 million, while this number for India in 2017 is 4.02 million. The numbers look similar, but let's take a closer look at what kind of cars were sold:
http://xxw3441.blog.163.com/blog/static/753836242017267391228/
http://news.bitauto.com/hao/wenzhang/650270
China in 2003:
No.1 VW Jetta: 143,121 units
No.2 VW Santana: 122,663 units
No.3 VW Passat: 122,445 units
No.4 Tianjin Xiali: 96,180 units
No.5 VW Santana2000: 92,892 units
No.6 Buick Regal: 89,988 units
No.7 Honda Accord: 80,450 units
No.8 VW Bora: 78,068 units
No.9 Changan Alto: 61,302 units
No.10 Audi A6: 53,108 units
http://auto.sohu.com/2004/04/09/50/article219785057.shtml
As you can see, except Alto, all are serious cars, as you have already seen from the Chinese city videos above.
India in 2017:
1. Maruti Suzuki Alto – 257,732 units
2. Maruti Suzuki Swift Dzire – 225,043 units
3. Maruti Suzuki Baleno – 177,209 units
4. Maruti Suzuki Swift – 167,371 units
5. Maruti Suzuki Wagon R – 166,814 units
6. Hyundai Grand i10 – 154,787 units
7. Maruti Suzuki Vitara Brezza – 140,945 units
8. Hyundai Elite i20 – 134,103 units
9. Hyundai Creta – 105,484 units
10. Maruti Suzuki Celerio – 100,860 units
https://www.carwale.com/news/highest-selling-cars-of-india-in-2017/
If you are interested, do check what kind of little midget cars are sold and running on Indian streets...
And let's compare the luxury car sales:
For India, in 2017, all the luxury brand cars combined sold less than our Audi A6 model alone (53,108 units), let alone the BMW, Mercedes-Benz and other Audi models.
India's luxury car sales in 2017:
"Continuing last year’s trend, Mercedes-Benz has retain top position by selling 15,300 units in 2017, an improvement of around 16% from the previous year. BMW group (including Mini) too managed to register a splendid growth of 25%, up from 7,500 units in 2016 to 9,800 units in 2017."
https://www.rushlane.com/luxury-car-sales-for-2017-12259854.html

In terms of GDP per capita, today's India should be comparable with 2005's China,(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita) But even with the factors such as inflation taken into consideration, India's low purchasing power like buying cars are just unbelievable, for example, in the early 2000s, cars like VW Passat , Honda Accord, and Buick Regal cost around 40,000 USD; While Audi A6 cost more than 60,000 USD in China. Even VW jetta or Santana costs around 15,000 USD, (the exchange rate then is around 1USD=8CNY), but still we saw significant sales for these models; but in today's India, people can only afford those Suzuki and Hyundai little midget cars; any cars with a price tag above USD 20,000, can hardly achieve any significant sales. Very weird indeed.

Based on these simple and apparent facts, although Indians talk loudly and boast hard all over the internet about their development and growth, such as SP2012, the reality is a little bit bitter for them, and about their true level of development, what do you think?

What about learning to write a grammatically correct title which an Indian boy knows in his preliminary study?

 

[randomradio]

So you mean China and India will have the same HDI by 2030?

That's how the reality is. And that's CCP's fault. With stupid population control measures, the Chinese have successfully prevented high growth. The minute your population started declining, your chances for high growth vanished. And this decline happened well before China hit developed status. China should have been aiming for 8-10% growth in GDP until 2030 instead. Now you have to transition to an advanced economy status with low growth, which means even HDI will grow slowly.

We didn't make the same mistakes. India will grow above 8% for the next 20 years. It won't be difficult for us to maintain a 0.1 to 0.15 increase in HDI every year until 2030, maybe beyond. India will be transitioning to an advanced economy status with high growth. That's an advantage you cannot even begin to comprehend.

 

[AndrewJin]

So you mean China and India will have the same HDI by 2030? I think you should use your "Modicare" to get a treatment for paranoea. Lol...

They should first reach Sub-Sahara Africa level.

 

[HariPrasad]

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1063486.shtm
Today's china cannot treat their hepatitis patients and cancer patients They are coming to India for treatment as these treatment is not available in China says chinese government mouth piece new papers. So great Chinese living in highrise are traveling to India for medical treatment and smuggles highly effective drugs from India which is available at less than 10% cost says global times.

 

[Mista]

It can't be projected without knowing the post-reforms trends first. I already told you that.

You can't just guess the numbers.

But somehow you could predict India will reach 0.8 HDI in 10-15 years? Or add 0.10-0.15 every year?

You're just avoiding the question, because you don't even know the answer. You're pulling all these statistics out from air.

 

[randomradio]

But somehow you could predict India will reach 0.8 HDI in 10-15 years? Or add 0.10-0.15 every year?

You're just avoiding the question, because you don't even know the answer. You're pulling all these statistics out from air.

The last 5 years our average increase was 0.088 with low growth. So with the new reforms with healthcare, power, connectivity, technology etc, it is bound to be higher.

And I provided the math for it as well. I pointed out we can grow even at 0.009 every year as we currently are and still get to 0.76 by 2030 without actually doing anything extra.

Since China has already done 0.012 every year between 2003 and 2008, it is obvious that even we can achieve such a number because our reforms foundation is better, which would put the number at 0.8+ in 2030.

But what you are asking for are exact numbers, which is impossible to guesstimate, and I haven't randomly estimated my projection for 2030, all I did is calculate the trend that is already known.

The thing is we are not taking small steps, our reforms are massive, they are all major game changers. We are moving from nothing to something very large. So we have no idea how the transition will be like. We can very well grow at 12% over the next 15 years, never mind 8%. Even the best minds in the country do not know what the future trend will be like and we are still awaiting a number of other reforms that are set to happen over the next 5 years.

So nobody can give you the answer you are looking for. Our HDI can grow anywhere between 0.01 and 0.02 every year.

@Mista

Proof of our healthcare.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1063486.shtml

You cannot comprehend how big of a change universal healthcare really is. Nowhere in history have the poorest of poor been given first world healthcare overnight, let alone to 500 million people at once.

 

[AndrewJin]

But somehow you could predict India will reach 0.8 HDI in 10-15 years? Or add 0.10-0.15 every year?

You're just avoiding the question, because you don't even know the answer. You're pulling all these statistics out from air.

Indian HDI is human degenerating index.

They should first reach Sub-Sahara Africa then talk about real HDI.

Their richest city is worse than China’s poorest province.

 

[Nilgiri]

They should first reach Sub-Sahara Africa then talk about real HDI.

Silly twit always copying and pasting the same thing. LOL.

Twit will never reply how many subsaharan countries are actually ahead of India in HDI....because its inconvenient to the CPC twit assertion.

The next thing this twit will say is North Korea HUNGER is LOWER.....(North Korea is super super credible after all)

Their richest city is worse than China’s poorest province.

Yay more copy and paste. CPC TROLL STRONK.

The Nanking complex runs deep. Just be glad it wasn't Wuhan.......wuuuuuuuu hannnnnn!

 

[randomradio]

Silly twit always copying and pasting the same thing. LOL.

Twit will never reply how many subsaharan countries are actually ahead of India in HDI....because its inconvenient to the CPC twit assertion.

The next thing this twit will say is North Korea HUNGER is LOWER.....(North Korea is super super credible after all)



Yay more copy and paste. CPC TROLL STRONK.

The Nanking complex runs deep. Just be glad it wasn't Wuhan.......wuuuuuuuu hannnnnn!

He is one of the High IQ Chinese crowds. His posts are worthy of an IQ of 105.

 

[Mista]

But what you are asking for are exact numbers, which is impossible to guesstimate, and I haven't randomly estimated my projection for 2030, all I did is calculate the trend that is already known.

No no no, I don't need the exact numbers. A rough number is enough for me to calculate the rough HDI.

Feel free to calculate the trend and give me the rough numbers for Life expectancy, Years of schooling, and GNI per capita.

Since China has already done 0.012 every year between 2003 and 2008, it is obvious that even we can achieve such a number because our reforms foundation is better, which would put the number at 0.8+ in 2030.

China managed to grow higher than 10% in those years. Reach 10% first before comparing.

 

[AndrewJin]

No no no, I don't need the exact numbers. A rough number is enough for me to calculate the rough HDI.

Feel free to calculate the trend and give me the rough numbers for Life expectancy, Years of schooling, and GNI per capita.



China managed to grow higher than 10% in those years. Reach 10% first before comparing.

India will take 40 years to reach China's 2005 life expectancy.
I guess Sub-Sahara Africa will reach that number much earlier.

 

[Kai Liu]

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1063486.shtm
Today's china cannot treat their hepatitis patients and cancer patients They are coming to India for treatment as these treatment is not available in China says chinese government mouth piece new papers. So great Chinese living in highrise are traveling to India for medical treatment and smuggles highly effective drugs from India which is available at less than 10% cost says global times.

Your doctors are made in China, you know what I mean.

We didn't make the same mistakes. India will grow above 8% for the next 20 years. It won't be difficult for us to maintain a 0.1 to 0.15 increase in HDI every year until 2030, maybe beyond. India will be transitioning to an advanced economy status with high growth. That's an advantage you cannot even begin to comprehend.

Will Will Will again.... Western media is really your best friend! They told you that you will develop fast as rocket with your "demographic dividend", i.e. more illiterate young people to grab garbage... And you really don't know what a HDI 8.0 means before doing the math....
Any way, you guys have already lost any credit about your "predictions"...
Have any of your delusions ever turn into reality? SP2012? Developed nation 2020? The world's fastest super computer? I totally understand your ignorance, because even your president was such a ignorant delusional guy...

 

[HariPrasad]

Your doctors are made in China, you know what I mean.

No i haven't studied in reeducation schools in china so i do not know that.