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Can the US derail China's Made in China 2025 plan?

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Can the US derail China's Made in China 2025 plan?
Janus Dongye Qimeng, an AI researcher in Cambridge

Since May 2019, Donald Trump announced the national emergency to list Huawei and its affiliates on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Entity List. Up until now, Google, ARM, Intel, Qualcomm, Microsoft and many other US-controlled companies and organisations have stopped working with Huawei.

So far, what the US has done, was just enforcing tariffs ($200 billion) imports from China and sanctioning Huawei, which was merely a tech company with $100 billion in revenues.

Let me help you understand the possible outcomes and causal relations behind it.

For this question, let’s put Huawei aside and have a look at the bigger picture. Can the USA really derail China's Made in China 2025 plan? Here are the “starting lineups” of the Made-in-China 2025 team:

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Let’s read the “minds” of these companies in the Made-in-China 2025 team to help you understand they would they think.

We all know that the MVP and the “Power Forward” Huawei has already been targeted and surrounded. But what would others think?

What would DJI think? (Drones)

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Hmm, poor Huawei, let me check my supply chain:

Battery - fully designed and manufactured in China, check.
High-speed motor - controlled by Chinese suppliers, check.
Flight control software system - my own algorithms and my intellectual property check.
Control CPUs - from Qualcomm Snapdragon flight CPU. OK, we have a problem here. Is there any alternative from China just in case I am sanctioned by the US? HiSilicon, can you do it?
Communication standards - hmm - perhaps we need to design our own standard in case of the future blockade from WIFI, Bluetooth, SD and JEDEC standard committees.
GPS signals - we have an alternative from Beidou, check.
Camera lens and image processing - I can see a point of failure here. We need to seek alternative suppliers from China instead of the US-controlled Japanese technology. O-film in Shenzhen, can you do it?
My finance - I need to drop my plans to list on US stocks markets. Perhaps Hong Kong is a better choice?

What would Comac think? (Airplane)

Okay, I know I will be eating cakes from Boeing and AirBus shortly. I would definitely get sanctioned by the USA if I grow stronger in the future.
Huawei’s fate is my fate. I am trying my best to make my C919 airplane achieve the same safety standard as Europe but I will sell at the half price compared to Boeing. Therefore, Boeing would never stop lobbying the US government to ban me.

So let me check my supply chains and prepare for the worst scenarios:

Hmm, my engine, radar, electric system, air processing units, data signals are all from USA technologies. That’s not good. Let me hire a few thousands of engineers and work with my Chinese suppliers to gradually replace these suppliers with Chinese alternative. Filling the gap is not easy. I need to ask the Chinese government to coordinate with universities, research groups and many small OEM companies in China to figure out how to avoid sanctions from the USA in these critical components.

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What would BYD think? (Electric cars)

Holy Moly, I can see my future from Huawei too. I will definitely be sanctioned and taxed by the US if my electric car sales grow really strong and get popular in the rest of the world, just like Huawei.

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So I need to prepare myself before I get sanctioned. Let me check my supply chains: my battery IP is pretty safe because I hold most of the patents. Wait a sec, I got a problem in my battery manufacturing process. Although I can manufacture most parts of the battery, I could not find a Chinese supplier that provides high-quality Lithium-ion separators. The current separator patents are held by Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Company (MMM) in the USA.

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The separator technology becomes my single point of failure. I need to invest billions to work with my trustworthy Chinese partners to overcome this technology barrier.

Luckily, my market is not so competitive as the mobile phone. And the USA has failed to realise the importance of this area. East Asia accounts for 80% of the battery market; and, China manufactures 50% of the electric car batteries. So what I need to do is to focus on the developing countries and sell my cheap electric cars in Asia, South America, and Africa.

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My Chinese government, please give me your contract and let all your 300 cities to buy my electric buses. They are cheap but of high quality! They protect the environment, too!
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Even London is buying my electric bus. If the USA forced them not to buy my buses, that’s OK. They have to pay twice the costs to find alternatives. Good luck to them.
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What would TCL think? (Smart TV)

Well, I’m already the third in the world’s smart TV market. I’m currently on my way to replace my supply chains. If you look at my TV components, only the control chip is not designed and made in China.

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Now HiSilicon, can you provide me with a smart chip for my smart TV? I don’t want this chip to become my single point of failure if I were sanctioned by the USA.

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Also, I need to make my backup plans for the content providers in the USA. What if I get sanctioned and those content providers stopped working with me?

What would TINECO (TEK) think? (Vacuum engine)

Those who don’t know me: I made cheap vacuum cleaners and beat Dyson’s sales in both China and the USA.

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I know Dyson, you are afraid of me. Dyson, paying the media and cutting your prices does not help.

There’s a great cordless vacuum sale on Amazon, but you should get this discounted Dyson instead



The American people need cheap made-in-China products with relatively high quality. Even with the 25% tariffs, I am still cheaper than other non-Chinese competitors.

Oh, by the way, Dyson, you shouldn’t be surprised if I make similar high-end vacuum cleaners, motors and hair dryers in the years ahead. These are not that high-tech as the semiconductors. They will be 100% designed and manufactured in China. So sanctions would not work.

What would BOE think? (Mobile phone screen)

Thank you Murica! It is finally my chance to grow! If Samsung and LG were to stop working with Huawei, then Huawei would use my screen for their phones. I would become their largest supplier. It would be a significant boost to my revenue!

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Then, I could have more money to invest in my future screen technology and patents. Hopefully, I could lead the next mobile screen innovation in the future!

What would Gree Electric think?

Come on Murica! Why don’t you sanction me! I am the one who actually controls more critical technology than Huawei! Why don’t you notice me! Look at me. Look at me. I am no longer the one who just makes cheap and high-quality air conditioners.

I made air compressors for nuclear electric plants!

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I made robot arms. I created my chip companies and invest in many electric systems including cars (sorry BYD). I will become the GE of USA. Don’t you notice my abbreviation is also “GE”?

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My motto has been “Master the core technology” since my establishment. Even Jackie Chan promotes this idea to every Chinese.

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Many Chinese people, including investors, have been questioning my motto and threatened to withdraw their stock because I “wasted” my money in research. But thanks to you, Murica, they changed their minds. They finally think investing in huge amounts of money in R&D is actually essential.

What would Siasun think

Come on. Gree, your robot arms suck. I made much better robot arms, even better than the Japanese! It is already used in many assembly lines and factories in China.

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But in the future, I just need to make sure that I would never use any embedded systems and control chips from the USA nor ARM. RISC-V seems to be a great ISA for me to invest. 45nm or 28nm is fine for a real-time system-on-chip for robot arms. It would be nice to have a few RISCV embedded chip providers in China. I think I could achieve 100% USA-free in my supply chains, as well.

Of course, I need to work closely with Huawei for my future 5G enabled robot arms.

What would CRRC think (High-speed trains)

*Sipping tea*

Well, it seems my previous efforts in achieving “100%” Chinese technology worked. I have controlled almost all the manufacturing and standards in Chinese high-speed trains. And over half of the high-speed trains of the world are in my hand. I am not so afraid of USA sanctions.

Sadly, the USA does not even notice me because they think high-speed trains and railways are not so important. They care more about how to spy on people using high-speed trains: Neal: Balance jobs at CRRC with security



Good luck on your future high-speed train projects in the USA. I really hope American people can enjoy a high-speed train ride before 2050.

Bombardier, Simens and Alstom (GE), let’s hope we can continue to work together. Work with me, you thrive. Choose Not to work with me, well, good luck.

What would China General Nuclear (CGN) and National Nuclear (CNNC) think?

*Sigh…*

Why would everyone focus on Huawei so much? We are already in the BIS entity list for a year, but nobody gives a damn. And we were already sanctioned by the USA since November 2018.

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Luckily, we achieved 100% Chinese technology and construction in our nuclear power plants. That’s why we can continue to build our nuclear plants in China, Pakistan, Argentina, and Saudi Arabia. Oh, we don’t accept US dollars if you want us to build a nuclear plant in your country.

What would the other latest 44 Chinese companies on the list think?

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Well, we feel really honoured to be listed in the USA entity list. That means we are doing really well. Without the sanctions, we were not able to even think about we could even get so much potential. But we live well and still managed to grow massively. Huawei, welcome to join our group.

What would Lenovo think?

Am I an American company or a Chinese company? To be or not to be. That’s the question. I don’t have any technology and I don’t want to spend huge money on it. The Chinese no longer love me anymore. It is better to wrap my *** and leave China.

What would Haier think?

Holy Blimey. I just realised how dangerous it is to work with the USA and how awkward to get in the middle of USA investments and Chinese markets. Luckily, my base is still in China and my overseas market focuses on Europe. I really don’t want to head for the “Lenovo dilemma”.

I should always remember I am a brand from Shandong, China.

Now let’s review our supply chains. (Too complicated for me to summarise).

What would Alibaba think?

Bloody Muricans, it is time to reduce my reliance on US investments and US stock markets. China has always been my shelter. Now I should consider moving my stock sources back to China. I will consider a second public listing in Hong Kong.

U.S.-China Tech Tensions Help Push Alibaba Toward Hong Kong



Hmm, it is time to rethink our clouding platform and packages. What fraction of services and licences are from Google, Facebook and Amazon. Let us reduce our reliances on the services and remove our points of failures.

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A Public Cloud Comparison | AWS vs Azure vs Google vs IBM vs Oracle vs Alibaba



Now everyone in the SaaS, PaaS and IaaS service providers would think about alternatives in case of USA sanctions.

And also, I need to reduce my reliance on particular hardware platforms. How about proposing a unified intermediate representation (IR) in the software layer so that all my services can be built on top of it? This IR layer can map to different hardware including x86, arm CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs and Chinese-made MIPS based Sunway Taihu Light supercomputers?

Oh, I might also consider stopping cooperation with FedEx in the rest of the world. I treat the “FedEx” recent incident a serious violation of my trusts in the US logistic companies.

Huawei says FedEx redirected packages to the U.S. without its authorization



What would Tencent think?

The USA has taught us a really good lesson. Our digital economy in China is a high-rise building built on the sand. We do not have a solid foundation and it might collapse any time. Therefore it is time to focus on our foundation now. Let’s work with Huawei and other software and hardware companies to build a full-stack ecosystem. I will take this as an opportunity to become the “Google” of China. Oh sorry. I meant, Google, you will become the Tencent of the USA.

You know, I am secretly building Wechat mini-programs, build toolchains and develop my own software ecosystems.

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Who knows in the future, Wechat could become an operating system and runs on bare metal hardware! Firefox did attempt to do this but failed because they did not get sanctioned by the USA.

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Oh Tik Tok, stop eating my cake!

What would SMIC think?

“Country roads, take me home ♫
To the place, I belong ♫
Southern China, mountain mama ♫
Take me home, country roads ♫”

As the main carrier for the Chinese semiconductor industry, I know China would bet all their hope on me. And the US investors would never invest me in the future. So it is time to delist from the US stock market. Now I should focus on the Chinese market and try my best to provide alternatives for the US semiconductor bans. Now China has announced tax exemption policies on the semiconductor industry. It is my golden opportunity to foster domestic supply chains and grow strong. Even if I could just be able to make 14nm chips meanwhile TSMC can make 7nm chips, that is great for me too. At least we can have something to start from.

Here’s a more practical reason for SMIC to delist from New York



Now even if USA and China signed a trade ceasefire and the sanctions are lifted, the damage to the Chinese companies are done. Those Chinese companies will try their best to replace their suppliers regardless. They might not immediately find great alternatives but they will eventually make it.

The momentum of the made-in-China 2025 train is there. There are so many other companies that are not mentioned. Can the USA really derail them all?

Finally: what would the Chinese government think?

USA: World bank stops financing Chinese overseas development projects.

China: Oh, I didn’t know you have this power. Now I will build an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) then.

USA: Manipulates oil prices in the future market.

China: Oh, I didn’t know you have this power. Now I will my own oil future trade market in Shanghai then.

USA: SWIFT forbids international money transfer when trading with Iran

China: Oh, I didn’t know you have this power. Now perhaps it is time to work with Europe to come up with a new standard? We have money exchange agreements with many other countries without using dollars.

USA: BIS entity list exists.

China: Oh, I didn’t know you have this power. Now perhaps I need my own list? How about my own "unreliable entities list"?

USA: Google, Microsoft stop working with Huawei.

China: Oh, I didn’t know you have this power. Now I realized the importance of OS. We will build our own ecosystem then.

USA: ARM, Intel stop working with Huawei.

China: Oh, I didn’t know you have this power. Now I realized the importance of instruction set architecture and licences. We need experts to figure out how to get around this problem.

USA: WIFI, Bluetooth, SD and JEDEC standard committee stopped working with Huawei.

China: Oh, I didn’t know you have this power. Now I realized the importance of controlling international standards. Now let’s review all the standards we have to propose our own.

USA: FedEx redirects Huawei package.

China: Oh, I didn’t know you have this power. Now I realized the importance of the international logistics network. Shunfeng, Yuantong, Zhongtong, I will help you to expand to the international market!

USA: IEEE prevents Huawei reviewers and publishers.

China: Oh, I didn’t know you have this power. Now I realized the importance of the scientific journal and paper publishing venues. Now let us study and figure out how to build an alternative.

USA: Sanction Iran & North Korea

China: Oh, I didn’t know you have this power. Now I might try to sanction the US military complex if they dare to sell weapons to Taiwan.

USA: …

China: I am waiting! Are there any more?

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Its impossible to stop made in China 2025. Too late!
 
It's already too late for China,
CCP is more or less finished.

Only thing left is how deep will Winnie the Pooh be buried..
 
It's already too late for China,
CCP is more or less finished.

Only thing left is how deep will Winnie the Pooh be buried..
Self delusion.

Wow , CCP is finished. Please look into the mirror before you spew those nonsense. Remember to give China a thanks and eat back your words.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...s-fight-hampered-china-medical-exports-delays

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-cou...lies-germany-cuts-deal-with-china-11586372608

Which countries you support, want to brag China is finished or CCP is finished? Both Germany and India Su*k thumb and depend on China. Maybe the N95 mask u used now is even made in China and same as your PC or smartphone used to access this PDF. China is here to stay and continue to growth, you can hate it but it will not change the fact, China is going to continue and dominate in this global be it before or after covid-19 crisis.
 
Self delusion.

Wow , CCP is finished. Please look into the mirror before you spew those nonsense. Remember to give China a thanks and eat back your words.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...s-fight-hampered-china-medical-exports-delays

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-cou...lies-germany-cuts-deal-with-china-11586372608

Which countries you support, want to brag China is finished or CCP is finished? Both Germany and India Su*k thumb and depend on China. Maybe the N95 mask u used now is even made in China and same as your PC or smartphone used to access this PDF. China is here to stay and continue to growth, you can hate it but it will not change the fact, China is going to continue and dominate in this global be it before or after covid-19 crisis.

the coronavirus finished off your plan. so much for Xi's leadership @Beast
 
the coronavirus finished off your plan. so much for Xi's leadership @Beast
LOL.. Indeed.
Covid-19 is finishing off US plan.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...covid-19-deaths-highest-daily-number-12650568

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...after-outbreak-on-uss-theodore-roosevelt-guam

Delusion has no limit. I believe u still in delusion thinking covid-19 is going to hit China worst than US. US is now a sicken man with no chance of fight back but still brag with a big mouth like you try threatening other..
 
LOL.. Indeed.
Covid-19 is finishing off US plan.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...covid-19-deaths-highest-daily-number-12650568

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...after-outbreak-on-uss-theodore-roosevelt-guam

Delusion has no limit. I believe u still in delusion thinking covid-19 is going to hit China worst than US. US is now a sicken man with no chance of fight back but still brag with a big mouth like you try threatening other..

Look here dummy - it is sending the whole world in a deep recession. Who is even going to buy your products ?

How long do you think 3rd world countries can afford the lockdown ?

Be happy if mobs do not catch Chinese nationals and lynch them to death

As I said great leadership by Xi to allow a dangerous virus to leave China's shores
 
Look here dummy - it is sending the whole world in a deep recession. Who is even going to buy your products ?

How long do you think 3rd world countries can afford the lockdown ?

Be happy if mobs do not catch Chinese nationals and lynch them to death

There are a few on this forum, funny that Twitter is banned in China but they are all over Twitter.
 
Look here dummy - it is sending the whole world in a deep recession. Who is even going to buy your products ?

How long do you think 3rd world countries can afford the lockdown ?

Be happy if mobs do not catch Chinese nationals and lynch them to death

LOL... THe delusion is you. So you think this recession is going to affect China but not US? So China is going to be doomed and US is not? US factories will open 24hrs, making products non-stop. US service sector is not going to be affected and every american are now happily drinking coffee in starbuck, every american is spending as usual. THis is a Chinese recession, US will not be affected totally?

Is this what u are going to tell rest of us?

@Beast has absolutely no clue what is happening
LOL... The no clue is you. Keep still try to paint a rosy US future and China is doomed. Keep claiming recession for China but not US? Who are u trying to kid?
 
LOL... THe delusion is you. So you think this recession is going to affect China but not US? So China is going to be doomed and US is not? US factories will open 24hrs, making products non-stop. US service sector is not going to be affected and every american are now happily drinking coffee in starbuck, every american is spending as usual. THis is a Chinese recession, US will not be affected totally?

Is this what u are going to tell rest of us?

I never said that

All I said good bye to China 2025
I made sarcastic comment about Xi's leadership
 
There are a few on this forum, funny that Twitter is banned in China but they are all over Twitter.
Are you the one trolling China and get caught. then u do a 180 degrees U-turn and force to apologise?

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/anot...t-censorship-laws.661547/page-2#post-12238268

I never said that

All I said good bye to China 2025
I made sarcastic comment about Xi's leadership

LOL.. Sarcastic? Say your breath your country men. Your people are dying at alarming rate. Your sarcasm looks like bad joke for such moment.
 
Are you the one trolling China and get caught. then u do a 180 degrees U-turn and force to apologise?

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/anot...t-censorship-laws.661547/page-2#post-12238268



LOL.. Sarcastic? Say your breath your country men. Your people are dying at alarming rate. Your sarcasm looks like bad joke for such moment.

Read the title of the thread
You have nobody but Xi to blame

it is not going to be funny when large 3rd world countries relax the lockdown and get hit NY style
 
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