Can Modi's India Be Trusted With Nukes?

[Joe Shearer]

clear case of sabotage

Sure, it is a possibility.

Let them finish enquiring.

You intruded several times. Why only our EEZ? Why not China EEZ? Indians are clever by nature. You destroyed us in 71 because of your clever mind but now, we understand your mindset. Old tactics will not work for India anymore.

You are quite ignorant, aren't you? What does right of innocent passage mean to you? Ships (including submersible ships) can go through an EEZ any number of times.

Why you? Why not China?

What difference does it make? China has to give us free passage too, and does, to anybody and everybody who comes along.

As for the rest, when you learn to read books - you know, the paper stuff with covers - come back.

 

[Arsalan345]

Sure, it is a possibility.

Let them finish enquiring.

You are quite ignorant, aren't you? What does right of innocent passage mean to you? Ships (including submersible ships) can go through an EEZ any number of times.

Why you? Why not China?

What difference does it make? China has to give us free passage too, and does, to anybody and everybody who comes along.

As for the rest, when you learn to read books - you know, the paper stuff with covers - come back.

You are trying to be innocent but I know Indians quite well. You can't fool us this time. You can't enter in Chinese EEZ because you know the results. Our defensive mindset is destroying us.

 

[Joe Shearer]

You are trying to be innocent but I know Indians quite well. You can't fool us this time. You can't enter in Chinese EEZ because you know the results. Our defensive mindset is destroying us.

Everybody and his uncle is entering - and exiting - the Chinese EEZ. What results are you talking about?

What is wrong with you?

 

[Wood]

Modi is not a James Bond villain

 

[Tamerlane]

Bandar k Hath me Bandook. These Bollywood species are far away from the reality. Their tiny brain is Unable to Comprehend the larger picture. If you are going to hit a Nuclear armed nation with the nukes their will be a nuke at your back side as a retaliatory ops.
Simple.

 

[RiazHaq]

the (Brahmos) incident raises questions about the safety of India’s cruise missile systems, especially given the real risk of accidental escalation between nuclear-armed adversaries.

Not much happened after India’s accidental cruise missile launch into Pakistan—this time.

Though no harm came from India’s accidental cruise missile launch into Pakistan on March 9, 2022, the incident raises questions about the risk of accidental escalation between nuclear-armed adversaries.

thebulletin.org

The missile at the center of the accident was reportedly a surface-launched supersonic BrahMos cruise missile jointly developed by India and Russia with a range of 290 kilometers. India is also developing an extended air-launched variant with a range of 800 kilometers. The BrahMos is not a part of India’s nuclear forces, though it has been reported to be nuclear-capable. India may realize its nuclear potential if it moves toward a counterforce nuclear doctrine, according to some scholars.

The incident was dangerous for several reasons. First, the missile, cruising at 40,000 feet, “endangered many international and domestic flights in both Pakistani and Indian airspace,” according to a spokesperson for Pakistan’s armed forces. It could have hit civilian aircraft in its path.

Second, the missile could have landed in a heavily populated area. The Indian government acknowledged the potential for disaster in a statement: “While the incident is deeply regrettable, it is also a matter of relief that there has been no loss of life due to the accident.” Additionally, Indian Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh later clarified that it only “later learnt” that the missile had landed in Pakistan, raising the possibility that India had not tracked the missile’s trajectory. The misfired missile might have landed in a densely populated part of India as well.

Finally, the incident risked a military escalation between two nuclear-armed countries. In recent years, the threshold for military engagement between India and Pakistan has been reduced. In 2016, Indian troops conducted “surgical strikes” against militants on the Pakistani side of the “line of control” in the Kashmir area, in response to a terrorist attack on an Indian army base. In 2019, the Indian Air Force crossed the international border and bombed Balakot in Pakistan in response to a terror attack against Indian paramilitary troops in Pulwama, Kashmir. Pakistan’s response to this attack led to an air-battle over Kashmir that ended when a Mig-21—a supersonic fighter jet—was shot down. The potential for military escalation between both states is high. The accidental launch of the BrahMos missile could have sparked a military crisis.

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India’s accidental missile launch joins a growing list of missile accidents, some of which were nuclear. In 1983, the Soviet Union’s early-warning systems mistakenly detected a US missile attack. At the time, Stanislav Petrov, a lieutenant colonel in the Soviet military, reported a system malfunction and saved the world from a nuclear exchange. In 1995, Russia detected a Norwegian research rocket launch (to study the aurora borealis) and mistook it for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) heading to Moscow. President Boris Yeltsin was prepared to retaliate but ultimately decided that that Washington had not launched a nuclear first strike on Russia. However, the incident highlighted the risk of accidental escalation during peacetime and the role of luck in averting disaster.

The recent exchange between India and Pakistan was more of a diplomatic incident than a military one. But unless the two countries establish measures to mitigate such dangers, the world may not be so lucky the next time.

 

[Tshering22]

Pakistan held back after realizing something was amiss: people
India missile launch occurred due to human, technical errors

Errant Indian Missile Nearly Led to Pakistan Retaliatory Strike

An accidental missile fired by India last week prompted Pakistan to prepare a retaliatory strike, people familiar with the matter said, showing how close the nuclear-armed neighbors came to blows over a potentially disastrous mistake.

www.bloomberg.com

An accidental missile fired by India last week prompted Pakistan to prepare a retaliatory strike, people familiar with the matter said, showing how close the nuclear-armed neighbors came to blows over a potentially disastrous mistake.

Pakistan had prepared to launch a similar missile to strike India but held back because an initial assessment indicated something was amiss, people familiar with the matter said. The Indian missile ended up damaging some residential property but caused no casualties.

Technical errors are detected by a simple fact that the missiles don't carry warheads while testing; especially near international bordering states. Those tests are usually routine checks. No one keeps their missiles locked and loaded all the time (except maybe air defense systems) to ensure that these errors don't escalate.

 

[RiazHaq]

India’s Inadvertent Missile Launch Underscores the Risk of Accidental Nuclear Warfare
Complex weapon systems are inherently prone to accidents, and this latest launch is one of a long history of military accidents in India

By Zia Mian, M. V. Ramana on April 8, 2022

India's Inadvertent Missile Launch Underscores the Risk of Accidental Nuclear Warfare

Complex weapon systems are inherently prone to accidents, and this latest launch is one of a long history of military accidents in India

www.scientificamerican.com

Last month, while most of the world focused on the war in Ukraine and worried that a beleaguered Russian leadership might resort to nuclear weapons, thus escalating the conflict into a direct war with the U.S.-led NATO nuclear-armed alliance, a nearly tragic accident involving India and Pakistan pointed to another path to nuclear war. The accident highlighted how complex technological systems, including those involving nuclear weapons, can generate unexpected routes to potential disaster—especially when managed by overconfident organizations.

India and Pakistan possess more than 300 nuclear weapons between them, and have fought multiple wars and faced many military crises. On March 9, three years after their dispute over Kashmir escalated into attacks by jet fighters, the Pakistan Air Force detected “a high speed flying object” inside Indian territory change course and veer suddenly toward Pakistan.* It flew deep into Pakistan and crashed. The object was a BrahMos cruise missile, a weapon system developed jointly by India and Russia. India soon stated the launch was an accident.

The firing of the BrahMos missile falls within a long history of accidents involving military systems in India. Military aircraft have strayed across the borders during peacetime. India’s first nuclear submarine was reportedly “crippled” by an accident in 2018, but the government refused to divulge any details. Secrecy has prevented the investigation of an apparent failure of India's ballistic missile defence system in 2016. Engagements between India and Pakistan can arise from such accidents, as in 1999 when a Pakistani military plane was shot down along the border by India, killing 16 people. Pakistan has had its share of accidents, including a Pakistani fighter jet crashing into the capital city in 2020.

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South Asia’s geography is pitiless. It would only take five to 10 minutes for a missile launched from India to attack Pakistan’s national capital, nuclear weapon command posts or bases. For comparison, the flight times between missile launch sites and targets in the United States and Russia are about 30 minutes. Even this extra time may be insufficient. In the event of a military crisis, no leader can make a judicious decision during this period, when faced with impossible choices. But shorter flight timesincrease the likelihood of mistakes.

The mistake that is of greatest concern is a false alarm of an incoming nuclear attack, possibly directed against nuclear forces. Indian or Pakistani—or Russian or NATO—policy makers may find themselves under immense pressure to launch a preemptive attack, thereby compounding the crisis. The terrible dilemma confronting them would be whether to use their nuclear weapons first or wait for the bombs from the other side to land. Nuclear war, even of a limited nature, between India and Pakistan could lead to millions of deaths in the short term and even graver consequences in the longer term for the region and beyond.

Compounding these dangers is the overconfidence of India’s officials, who displayed no recognition of the gravity of the Brahmos accident. A “technical malfunction” had “led to the accidental firing of a missile,” the official statement declared, noting glibly “it is learnt that the missile landed in an area of Pakistan.” India’s defense minister assured parliament members that the system is “very reliable and safe.”

 

[Krptonite]

Everybody and his uncle is entering - and exiting - the Chinese EEZ. What results are you talking about?

What is wrong with you?

He's built a brick wall with that thick skull alone.

How on earth do you expect words to get through, much less reason.

Seems to be a depressing trend here, posters use their ignorance skillfully and wear it as a badge of honour.

People read their countries waters and promptly stop reading ahead after a couple of words. After all, if it has your countries name attached to it, it must be yours.

@Arsalan345 territorial waters and exclusive economic zone are different. FFS do some reading. Even the mighty Ol USA has to deal with Russian nuclear subs barely 12 nautical miles from its coasts. Give one example of China shooting down ships or planes in its EEZ.

 

[Joe Shearer]

He's built a brick wall with a very thick skull alone.

How on earth do you expect words to get through, much less reason.

Seems to be a depressing trend here, posters use their ignorance skillfully and wear it as a badge of honour.

People read their countries waters and promptly stop reading ahead after a couple of words. After all if it has your countries name attached to it, it must be yours.

@Arsalan345 territorial waters and exclusive economic zone are different. FFS do some reading. Even the mighty USA has to deal with Russian nuclear subs barely 12 nautical miles from its coasts. Give one example of China shooting down ships or planes in its EEZ.

Sadly, painfully on target. Some of the younger elements are beginning to resemble their Indian counterparts on social media, and it is a sad fall from grace.