Can Modi's India Be Trusted With Nukes?

[Joe Shearer]

No. never. Don't trust India. India has first strike policy under Modi. Cruise missile attack and frequent intrusions of Indian submarines are clear signs. They want to respond to Feb. 27 humiliation and next time, they will attack with full force. First strike policy is a very dangerous policy. They can surprise us if we continue to behave like a responsible country. Behave more like a rogue state. India fears Attack. India hates when Pakistan attacks first. Pakistan must not abandon old aggressive policies for this new defensive nightmare.

Indian submarines did not intrude.

You need to do your homework.

There is a right of free passage in any country's EEZ.

 

[Broccoli]

What kinda security mechanisms do Indian nuclear weapons have? Hopefully good because if Indians don't have anything like PAL they could accidentally launch missile with live warhead.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I think they made a statement that yes they can be trusted because there was no warhead?? This could be one of their agendas too. That they keep the warhead separate and secure.

Two things.

The Brahmos has not been tested with nuclear warheads.

Conventional warheads - about 200 kgs of HE - are not married to the missile without specific instructions. For a missile to be launched accidentally is a terrible thing. For a missile to be armed with a warhead and then launched would not be a terrible accident, it would be a deliberate act of war.

 

[K_Bin_W]

I think they made a statement that yes they can be trusted because there was no warhead?? This could be one of their agendas too. That they keep the warhead separate and secure.

You mean they forgot the warhead too...

 

[Joe Shearer]

What kinda security mechanisms do Indian nuclear weapons have? Hopefully good because if they don't have anything like PAL they could accidentally launch missiles with live warhead.

Nuclear weapons are restricted to a different authority. Missiles such as Brahmos are distributed among the regular services. The two sets of authorities are completely different.

 

[Broccoli]

Nuclear weapons are restricted to a different authority. Missiles such as Brahmos are distributed among the regular services. The two sets of authorities are completely different.

Most sources say there are nuclear version of Brahmos and it's canistered weapon therefore it would be good guess to assume warheads are mated with missiles.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Most sources say there are nuclear version of Brahmos and it's canistered weapon therefore it would be good guess to assume warheads are mated with missiles.

No.

It is possible - has been done - to build reduced size warheads, but this has not yet been tried and tested.

Warheads - even the conventional ones - are NEVER married to missiles before operations. These are at the moment conventional HE warheads.

@HRK, whom I otherwise scarcely refer to, has written a very lucid note on this; he has come to conclusions with which I differ, but his reasoning is worth reading.

it's canistered weapon

Oh, I see your point. It is awkward to fit warheads onto canistered weapons. Yes, that is true, but apparently this process has just started.

Using canisters on air-borne Brahmos types, either the older version or the lighter NG version are not canistered. The reference must be to those deployed with the Army, and those deployments, afaik, are very, very few.

I do not want to go into numbers in a public forum, in a discussion with another nation's citizens (it would be inadvisable even with our own citizens).

 

[manpk77]

Two things.

The Brahmos has not been tested with nuclear warheads.

Conventional warheads - about 200 kgs of HE - are not married to the missile without specific instructions. For a missile to be launched accidentally is a terrible thing. For a missile to be armed with a warhead and then launched would not be a terrible accident, it would be a deliberate act of war.

You can't say whether the missile has been mated with the dummy nuclear warhead and tested or not. It's mostly confidential.

Secondly, it seems, it was deliberate because the kinetic energy along with the left fuel was sufficient to take out the target whatever it was. Indians calculated it very well.

 

[Joe Shearer]

You can't say whether the missile has been mated with the dummy nuclear warhead and tested or not. It's mostly confidential.

<sigh>

I understand what you are trying to say, but it needs re-wording.

There is nothing called a dummy nuclear warhead. It has already been tested with warheads of 200 kg weight.

If you are hinting at a tactical nuclear weapon test, why would this be done? Are you aware that there is no scope for individual commanders to use nuclear weapons, even tactical ones? In Pakistan, Corps Commanders, 3 star generals have that authority.

One of the difficulties in these speculations is that Pakistani posts on the subject, other than from hard-core analysists or their military professionals, have little or no idea of how India works. It is so hugely different that it can be misleading.

That is one reason why I NEVER comment on Pakistani politics, or social affairs, or military, other than the records of past engagements, and that too in consultation with Pakistani military professionals.

As for confidentiality, this is not a government that even knows how to spell 'confidential'.

Secondly, it seems, it was deliberate because the kinetic energy along with the left fuel was sufficient to take out the target whatever it was. Indians calculated it very well.

An empty building in an obscure town?

 

[manpk77]

I understand what you are trying to say, but it needs re-wording.

There is nothing called a dummy nuclear warhead. It has already been tested with warheads of 200 kg weight.

The structure has to be different and it needs to be tested for the proper detonation and other parameters like noise cancelling, temperature etc.

An empty building in an obscure town?

To give a message with minimal effect

If you are hinting at a tactical nuclear weapon test, why would this be done? Are you aware that there is no scope for individual commanders to use nuclear weapons, even tactical ones? In Pakistan, Corps Commanders, 3 star generals have that authority.

No one is saying that, and there is also no chance for an individual commander to launch the missile without authorization codes.

 

[Joe Shearer]

The structure has to be different and it needs to be tested for the proper detonation and other parameters like noise cancelling, temperature etc.

You realise that is not a dummy; that is a real warhead, an experimental warhead.

To give a message with minimal effect

Perhaps on the lines of, "My left thumb can destroy Multan and Bahawalpur, my right thumb can incinerate Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar."

I didn't get the point.

Who gives the message to whom, and why? Is the Pakistan Army, and Pakistani AD not aware of Brahmos capabilities, in spite of open reporting of various tests?

No one is saying that, and there is also no chance for an individual commander to launch the missile without authorization codes.

So we are on the same page on this?

 

[manpk77]

You realise that is not a dummy; that is a real warhead, an experimental warhead.

Of course, dummy warhead means , warhead minus fissile material.

Perhaps on the lines of, "My left thumb can destroy Multan and Bahawalpur, my right thumb can incinerate Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar."

I didn't get the point.

Who gives the message to whom, and why? Is the Pakistan Army, and Pakistani AD not aware of Brahmos capabilities, in spite of open reporting of various tests?

World will not give any attention to this event at all. And India conducted the strike. Or they tried to get some one there who knows. May be India was testing the alertness.
But it was not an accident.

You do not put the circuit activation/launch key without authorization from heighest authority.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Of course, dummy warhead means , warhead minus fissile material.

There is no separate test required of a strategic warhead, other than a live test with an explosion of the device.

All other tests have been completed. Weight of the warhead has been tested; the weight of a strategic warhead will not exceed a conventional warhead. So what exactly is this dummy warhead supposed to establish?

You do not put the circuit activation/launch key without authorization from heighest authority.

That is for nuclear devices only. This was not a nuclear device, so its control is devolved to operational levels. If there is a mishap during an inspection and a close examination, due to some process failure, what went wrong has to be found out, clearly, beyond doubt. Recurrence then needs to be safeguarded.

 

[manpk77]

Weight of the warhead has been tested; the weight of a strategic warhead will not exceed a conventional warhead. So what exactly is this dummy warhead supposed to establish?

Battery test, datalink function, safety of the warhead inside the missile , all weather conditions , temperature tolerance, tensile strength and metal expansion coefficient to validate that it can be accommodated inside brahmos.

That is for nuclear devices only. This was not a nuclear device, so its control is devolved to operational levels. If there is a mishap during an inspection and a close examination, due to some process failure, what went wrong has to be found out, clearly, beyond doubt. Recurrence then needs to be safeguarded.

The activation of circuit is still required and atleast two to three people are needed for this. Be it any missile. It's not a mopat that you just put a key , kick the level and it will run.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Battery test, datalink function, safety of the warhead inside the missile , all weather conditions , temperature tolerance, tensile strength and metal expansion coefficient to validate that it can be accommodated inside brahmos.

You don't seem to get the point. All this is over. Live firing has been done. You find it difficult because of your core assumption that this was a prototype nuclear device. How can you ask for those criteria to be fulfilled when the missile was not even designed to carry such a device?

When a missile is put under the field command of a service, it is no longer subject to the identical protocols that centralised weapons might require.