'Beijing-Dhaka ties will be substantially damaged if Bangladesh joins Quad'

[DalalErMaNodi]

OK guys more on this,

FM Momen: China's comment on Quad an advance one

The foreign minister says Bangladesh will continue to maintain non-aligned and balanced foreign policy

www.dhakatribune.com

In Bangladesh we Bangladeshis must feel like Munia being courted so much by rich and powerful suitors, but can we also (ahem) Hang ourselves ? Good question.

Unlike Munia, we must know how to keep secrets and be tactful....

Yeah I know - comparison is kinda lame.

Point is - to play games carefully to extract maximum benefit.

All I'm asking for us,.. is to play.


And for once the government is playing...



Pit QUAD against China and see what happens, worst case scenario, we piss one off and the get the other to court us.

 

[crankthatskunk]

Is your comprehension skills tied to % access to sanitation in India by any chance?

No. But they are definitely tied to the sanitation required in your head.

 

[Bilal9]

All I'm asking for us,.. is to play.


And for once the government is playing...



Pit QUAD against China and see what happens, worst case scenario, we piss one off and the get the other to court us.

Yup - we must use leverage to extract benefits, when we have some. And looks like we do have some.

 

[fallstuff]

Did i say any where I want BD to get destroyed ?

BD is a very poor country. In my opinion BD should not get involved with either Quad or China. BD needs both to develop. Angering either party will be fatal for BD. But at this moment it seems both party are in a tug of war over who BD should join. Who ever BD joins , the party who BD does not join will be very angry. Quad and China, it seems they are not interested in allowing BD to be neutral. So BD needs military teeth to at least defend herself and maintain her neutrality at all cost.

Where I said that BD should join China ? or where I said BD should join Quad? Talking about potential consequences of an action does not mean that someone is advocating for or against that action.

The problem is Awami league has very funny way of showing neutrality.

Mr Momen talks about neutrality between China and QUAD, then his colleague from the same party across the table insists BD is a close ally of India. Another colleague says BD wants to maintain close ties with China.

See the problem here ? Awami league has multiple personality disorder.

The current world politics is not multipolar. The world is being split here between China/Russia vs QUAD/NATO. If BD wants to maintain neutrality she must demonstrate that neutrality with WORDS and ACTIONS. Otherwise how would BD convince the powers that BD is actually neutral? Sooner or later they will catch BD's game, and force BD to pick a side. Which is what is happening now.

Sad reality. Awami league foreign policy has been a total disaster.

There will always be a bigger coutry trying to manipulate you in someway. That certainly doesn't mean the sky is falling. My point is very simple you carry on with a sense of resolve. Bangladesh is not obligated to show anything to anyone.

The issue of joining an alliance or pack is that there's always a pecking order. Bangladesh being a smaller Nation will always be in the receiving end.

These are underlying facts,

1). India is big and all around Bangladesh.

2) Bangladesh defense equipment is mostly from China.

3) 90% of the export go to USA and Western Europe.

4). Bangladesh is a poor small country.

So yes when you considered all above facts the current course of policy is the best policy.

What is my concern is that you stated in your post Bangladesh is going to lose all its development just like that because of a wrong step. This is a standard scare mongering tactic.

 

[fallstuff]

Absolutely nothing will happen.... what leverage does china have? Will it stop selling us $10bn worth of goods per year? No, if they are silly to do it we will switch elsewhere...

Will they stop selling us weapon....no as we will go elsewhere...

Will they stop investing.....possibly but BD FDI is fairly low and chinese cheap loans whilst very usefull is not particularly critical.

China has minimal leverage and all these shouting is demonstrating that strategic weakness.

If china pushes too hard it will simply deliver BD in the arms of the quad. China would have been in a stronger position if it had supported BD regarding Rohingya.... every action has a reaction.... china has lost a lot of goodwill.

The Quad is far from being an effective entity. This kind of shows weakness on their part by showing their cards fairly early in the game.

Bangladesh is not going with Quad when all its weapon system are almost all Chinese.

The days of Chinese loans without political conditions are a thing in the past !!

 

[fallstuff]

no free lunches from CHina Bangladesh! thats China's message..

Let is be 100% HONEST- CHina can "direct" how Bangladesh's economy goes..thats just the amt of leverage China has in today's economy...if you are not a 1st world, your economy is likely dependent on China, not the other way around..dont say China is throwing its power around when US and UK have been doing that for centuries leading up to today... when US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan how many people came out publiclya nd said US is "throwing its weight around"?? but when CHina does it, its a different issue? no its not, different superpower, same behavior.

You said that with two US flags !!

Dude you can't even control chubby Kim !
What the heck you smoked causing your delusions ?

 

[bluesky]

Many people still believe that usa is in it's old form. But the reality is different.

Things aren't like usa vs soviet . If China is harmed , usa will suffer most, price of everything will be increased dramatically and many more I think.

I have found from other sources that whatever excess dollar China earns, it keeps them in American Banks. Also, if someone adds financial services, it is America that is in plus. Yet, this quarrelsome America is creating anti-China propaganda throughout the world and particularly in Asia.

 

[nautilaceae]

If you read up on China's strategic thinkers and analysts, BD has to be in China's corner for the containment of India in the subcontinent to tighten the noose as we speak, of all the QUAD members besides the US China actually sees only India to be a credible threat because of it's population, economy and potential to grow, Japan, Australia and Taiwan are push over nations that can be easily handled, but for India CCP believes her adventurism in the south china sea can be contained by surrounding India by China friendly states in the subcontinent (Pakistan, Nepal, BD and Sri Lanka).

Quad is about South China Sea, India can't project power there. Economically and technologically, the disparity is also too huge for India to be considered as a competitor. After US, Japan probably poses more threat due to its hosting of US 7th fleet near SCS. If you notice Chinese diplomatic posture, they are quite friendly to India, but less so towards Japan. Don't think India is in Chinese strategic consideration much, there's a militarily strong Pakistan to deter India. There might be some incidents behind the scene that compel Chinese ambassador to make the remark abt BD joining Quad which we are not aware of.

 

[bluesky]

BD already has a 350 billion US dollar economy and expected to grow at least 7% a year till 2035 by all major economic organisations. Run something like this till 2050 and you see how rich BD could become.

Bloody another of BBS statistics. Now, tell us how rich is BD. Is it not just still a Least Developed Country? How long you guys will be living in your fantasy world?

 

[leonblack08]

China: we can't allow you to help quad to cut our throat while sitting on our lap (toom hamari jholi mein beth kar hamari hee darhi nahin khainch saktay)

Bengali leader: but but we iz important, you cannot admonish us cuz you will loose 10 billion trade with us, the future super power.

China: kya piddi aur kya piddi ka shorba (don't be delusional). ask your masters in dehli about the volume of trade between us and them. did the fear of loosing that trade stop us from stomping on them when they bragged on taking Aksaichin and GB? toom kis khet ki mooli ho?

Wow, such creativity. I am amazed.

 

[CriticalThinker02]

Quad is about South China Sea, India can't project power there. Economically and technologically, the disparity is also too huge for India to be considered as a competitor. After US, Japan probably poses more threat due to its hosting of US 7th fleet near SCS. If you notice Chinese diplomatic posture, they are quite friendly to India, but less so towards Japan. Don't think India is in Chinese strategic consideration much, there's a militarily strong Pakistan to deter India. There might be some incidents behind the scene that compel Chinese ambassador to make the remark abt BD joining Quad which we are not aware of.

These remarks were not said by me but Chinese analysts.

 

[Jobless Jack]

There will always be a bigger coutry trying to manipulate you in someway. That certainly doesn't mean the sky is falling. My point is very simple you carry on with a sense of resolve. Bangladesh is not obligated to show anything to anyone.

The issue of joining an alliance or pack is that there's always a pecking order. Bangladesh being a smaller Nation will always be in the receiving end.

These are underlying facts,

1). India is big and all around Bangladesh.

2) Bangladesh defense equipment is mostly from China.

3) 90% of the export go to USA and Western Europe.

4). Bangladesh is a poor small country.

So yes when you considered all above facts the current course of policy is the best policy.

What is my concern is that you stated in your post Bangladesh is going to lose all its development just like that because of a wrong step. This is a standard scare mongering tactic.

.

Best course: Neutrality. I agree with you. However GOB has messed it up. Big time.

This entire discussion about BD joining Quad is because of India. India identifies having a India friendly ( not neutral BD government ) BD government of paramount importance to its security and maintaining control of the Indian NE. The other members of Quad don't even care if BD joins QUAD, and would have been perfectly happy to maintain ties with BD as it currently is. It is only to serve Indian interest that the Quad( Only India, the rest reluctantly ) is so interested in BD. China identifies having a neutral govt in BD is critical to achieving its interest in the Indian NE. Obviously the Chinese wont say directly India, so to use a general term, they said Quad. In reality it is India their statement is directed at.

How BD could have handled this situation: By going out of India's orbit of influence, but maintaining close economic relationship with the West and military relationship with China. Cut out the middle man called India. BD does not need India to maintain close ties with the West. The west is perfectly happy to maintain economic relationship with BD. China would have been happy to be BD's main military supplier. So the main problem is Awami league's close ties with India. If BD ( Awami league) would have maintained neutral ties with India this problem would not have arose. All Awami league had to do is distance itself from India and only maintain the closeness that any 2 sovereign nations normally maintain in this world. But they could not do this simple task! Awami league only talks neutrality, not acts on it.

Future : Hence now BD finds herself in a real messy situation that will end with BD either getting run over by IA or flattened by PLAF in the event of a war between China and India . You can blame the the awami league for this mess. Their inability to cut off India has cost BD its future. Call this what ever tactics you want. While BD is not obligated to give anyone anything, economically and militarily BD cannot resist the will of either country.

Might not even have to wait for the India vs China war to be run over by IA. If tension continues to escalate between India and China , and Awami league steps down, IA will come in to secure its interests pre-emptively. Modi G (BJP) needs a war desperately to shore up his vote banks for 2024. Expect anti Bangladesh rhetoric's from 2022. BD provides a soft target in their sick demented mind.

 

[khansaheeb]

A Bangladeshi economic corridor with China is a 1000 times better than an economic corridor with India. But Bangladesh will only learn after it is bitten by the Indians.

 

[fallstuff]

.

Best course: Neutrality. I agree with you. However GOB has messed it up. Big time.

This entire discussion about BD joining Quad is because of India. India identifies having a India friendly ( not neutral BD government ) BD government of paramount importance to its security and maintaining control of the Indian NE. The other members of Quad don't even care if BD joins QUAD, and would have been perfectly happy to maintain ties with BD as it currently is. It is only to serve Indian interest that the Quad( Only India, the rest reluctantly ) is so interested in BD. China identifies having a neutral govt in BD is critical to achieving its interest in the Indian NE. Obviously the Chinese wont say directly India, so to use a general term, they said Quad. In reality it is India their statement is directed at.

How BD could have handled this situation: By going out of India's orbit of influence, but maintaining close economic relationship with the West and military relationship with China. Cut out the middle man called India. BD does not need India to maintain close ties with the West. The west is perfectly happy to maintain economic relationship with BD. China would have been happy to be BD's main military supplier. So the main problem is Awami league's close ties with India. If BD ( Awami league) would have maintained neutral ties with India this problem would not have arose. All Awami league had to do is distance itself from India and only maintain the closeness that any 2 sovereign nations normally maintain in this world. But they could not do this simple task! Awami league only talks neutrality, not acts on it.

Future : Hence now BD finds herself in a real messy situation that will end with BD either getting run over by IA or flattened by PLAF in the event of a war between China and India. You can blame the the awami league for this mess. Their inability to cut off India has cost BD its future. Call this what ever tactics you want.

I don't think China has any interest beyond Arunachal, even that will guarantee a war with India. BD will not get run over by India or flattened by China under any scenario. India could not manage Jaffna in Srilanka with 70000 troops, so I don't see how India will have it easy in BD.

China could do more with the Rohingya's, but they just said they don't get involved in other nations politics. It now seems like they do when it serves their purpose.
Chinese Defense Minister can blow all the hot air he wants, BD should care less beyond FM Momen's statement.
If you let people mess with you, you always get kicked around.

 

[Jobless Jack]

I don't think China has any interest beyond Arunachal, even that will guarantee a war with India. BD will not get run over by India or flattened by China under any scenario. India could not manage Jaffna in Srilanka with 70000 troops, so I don'ts see how India will have it easy in BD.

China could do more with the Rohingya's, but they just said they don't get involved in other nations politics. It now seems like they do when it serves their purpose.
Chinese Defense Minister can blow all the hot air he wants, BD should care less beyond FM Momen's statement.
If you let people mess with you, you always get kicked around.

With China. No need send PLA. When PLAF can easily carry out bombing and missile attacks attacks on BD infrastructure . This will get millions killed and economy destroyed. Think Yemen Vs Saudi.

Conventionally BD can fight India max 1 month . Then its people war Afghanistan style vs IA. Sure IA will break sweats to fight BD people on the ground and holding BD territory will be a nightmare for them. So they will only focus on securing important areas/infrastructure for themselves and securing their own convoys. But Think the Saudi vs Yemen conflict. Sure they cant fight you on land, but what is stopping the IAF from dropping bombs on civilian areas from air out of pure spite ? The Saudi's are doing it in Yemen , so is Israel.

Don't worry about PLA. The way things are going Awami league wont last till 2024. More due to their own stupidity then about anything the Chinese do. This is the real worry is India will interpret this as threat. As tension escalate with China even more, India needs Awami league now in Dhaka more then ever. If Awami league goes expect Modi G to throw the IA and IAF at BD. This serves two things. a) Modi G can use this conflict to appear as strongman in preparation for 2024. His Hindutva followers will be happy. B) India will have secured its NE logistics ( from Indian point of view ). In the Hinduvta mind, BD is a soft target.

Mr Momen is correct in his statement. But this statement is only 6 years late. BD should have started distancing herself from India when Modi G got elected in 2014 . Now its too late.