In the AJK (and northern KPK) region, two major external threats are Indian Army and Northern Alliance whereas Internal threats are TTP and PTM. The internal threats are being dealt with, its the external threats which need a proper defensive setup as well as a force which has the ability to conduct offensives in the mountains.
Indian Army is deployed on the east of AJK where as Northern Alliance is deployed on the west of AJK and Northern KPK. Pakistan has deployed Military in North west of KPK region to counter Northern Alliance incursions. In any case Northern Alliance has its own set of problems dealing with opposing factions located inside Afghanistan. Therefore unless Indian Military deploys and builds up opposite Chitral along with Northern Alliance, the threat level remains low. There is an Indian Military base in tajikistan from where its said that IAF can provide logistics support to Indian troops based in Afghanistan and this could further mean that IAF can operate fighters (Mig-29's/Rafale/SU 30) from that base and launch strikes into KPK and AJK. The longer USA extends its presence in Afghanistan, the better it is for India and its Military in some ways. There were rumors of Indian Military building base inside Afghanistan, it could take shape in future though. China has started to train ANA Brigade in COIN Ops at a training base in Northern Afghanistan. So Chinese presence could be observed in future in Afghanistan.
On the Pakistan side, there was a decision taken to deploy an Infantry Division in Swat, probably under XI Corps, but maybe the decision has been reversed since FC was doubled in strength. PA uses formations from XI Corps such as 7th Infantry Division as reserve in AJK behind 12th Infantry Division or between 12th Infantry Div and FCNA. The newly raised SSD or 34th LID is HQ'd in Chilas. This formation has to perform internal security duties therefore its Regular Infantry Battalions could get committed only when a war breaks out. Since the formation is Light Infantry therefore it might not possess Artillery or AD units. FCNA is the major formation deployed in Northern LOC area opposite to IA and and also looks after Siachen area. It has three brigades which have limited offensive capability. The other formation is GB scouts, almost a Brigade a strength but un-modernized (compared to FC) and lacking Artillery. So FCNA (1 Division strength) is the primary force deployed in the region. SSD (34 LID) can conduct defense or offense, depends how its utilized in war.
If India Military wants, it can launch aa attack Dras, Kargil, Batalik and even from near Turtuk region. Indian Army and Indian Air Force have better air lift capability than PA and PAF in the form of fixed wing and helicopters ( all types of transport versions). Indian Army has 2-3 Infantry Divisions and an independent infantry brigade in the region. These can be reinforced by sending more Infantry Divisions and Infantry brigades to reinforce the sector. Formations of BSF are also present in this area.
In case of war, best bet for India is to mobilize Northern Alliance opposite Northwest of KPK and Regular Infantry/Mountain Divisions from in North East of AJK. This will stretch PA's 34th LID on both sides and FCNA will have to go defensive. Pakistan Army requires an air assault operation in the area to keep war inside IOK.
