Indian Army attacking IB has a major drawback for PA. There won't be any reinforcements for AJK sector. But IA will not attack IB on its own. IA needs assistance, on lines of Mukti Bahini, operating inside Pakistan. That is how East Pakistan was run over by India. You have mentioned the names already on lines of TTP/BLA and imported ones from Afghanistan. If ANA can keep PA forces on western front bogged down, then Eastern front with India on IB will be unable to receive reinforcements for PA.
Pakistan has NA in North west, ANA and other factions in west, BLA/BRA in south West inside Pakistan. Iran is also being embroiled to use force against PA from south west outside Pakistan.
On East, the picture is a lot better since MQM died down and also the internal threat has reduced in major cities. Its IA with its armored, mechanised, infantry and Artillery formations sitting in the east.
So Pakistan is actually surrounded from East and West.
The Northern Region has China and the Southern region is Sea, which has been linked by CPEC. This is where India failed and Chinese provided relief. Now the talks of 'Naval Blockade' by India and Its Navy is orchestrated to put the southern sea lines under pressure.
S-400 is regarded as the savior and whatever that Indian indigenous ABM defense program is lingering on.
My dear Pak,
A very good post!
I wouldn't go as far as saying that MQM malitia is toally done with... still some target killers and terrorist cells are there. Also, within Sindh we do have a
Law n Order situation... a headache can emerge there as well.
Regarding, Iranian front yes that is quite concerning... beligerence coming from there is quite consistent... might just open a front with us to divert attention away from ME theatre.... if they remain neutral then that would mount to an alliance with us!
Afghan theatre is becoming hotter and I do suspect that US will go on the offensive ...with counter offensive from Taliban... ANA, remnants of TTP and other malitia would become free to open low intensity front against us.
PTM is for now managed...but the way
Fazlu is playing he will try to leverage PTM support base... Please, see his narrative is dovetailing PTM's .... oh yeah, and Islam is in danger.
I still consider
FazoolMullahMafia to be National Security Threat. PakState has been too tolerant of this lot.
SoftState behaviour needs to end on many fronts.
Billo already has raised the infamous SindhuDaesh slogan ... he has been building on it for sometime... if you listen to his speech..there is a redline in it...
so we do have Muktiz in different forms... not the same scenario as in EastPakistan... but perhaps more complex.
Balochistan is stable for now... we need to keep an eye on Taftan as well... Gawadar is another key asset to protect .. please, remember the recent PC attack there by BLA who came by boat/sea!
Since, we are not fighting GanguDaesh alone... but forces behind the
GanguTerroristRegime who have much larger agenda where
GanguTerroristArmy is one of the tools.
In the same regard FATF and IMF need to be considered as
WeaponisedFinancialTools as well.
The situation in ME especially after the attack on KSA makes it more dangerous situation for us... our possible financial support base is under attack as well.
GanguNavy is near our waters after oiltanker attacks...
Oman is Oman.
The movement of
GanguTerroristArmy's IBGs towards our borders...and excercises of the same near the Chinese border is more than posturing... need to be seen as conveying a message to PLA to stay out. Let us see if PLA is impressed by such antics.
Also, we need to take into count the pervailing political wailing and
antiState narrative of practically all opposition save JI.
NarcoLeague is directly inciting against the state instituitions and
PeePee is doing the same in Sindh... Fazlu is trying to create maximum leverage through threat of choas and anarchy. If a deal is made with him then he will have undue power over the
PakState (in Hybridwar section we did touch on this Vector).
Money is already pouring in for Fazlu's Lockdown ... NAB and Judiciary is incapable of delivering... both thoroughly compromised instituitions.
GoP is still in paralysis and hasn't been able to find cohesion within its cabinet ranks yet.
In all our wars with GanguFacistRegime we lost on political front or on negotiating table. And I fear the current political/JumWhoriat is like Muktiz ... so a dangerous Vector.
#MarasiMedia is sold out and lacks intellectual capacity to shape any
PakNationalNarrative ... add to that
mismanagement of economy which PTI recieved as dead... is not helping either.
War is supply chain, logistics and firepower... and
5thGen/Hybridwar is no different.
We need to fight back on all Vectors of Hybridwar ...simaltaneously!
I do fear that IB will be opened as it will help
GanguTerroristArmy to gain more against
PakArmedForces who will be spread thin... a concentrated conflict in
IoJK/AJK-GB theatre is a bogged down conflict without much outcome.
PAF and Drones are needed in this one!
I am sure PakArmedForces have wargamed many,many scenarios and have developed counter measures. But we need to manage the
PolticalChaos as Politicoz will try to maximise it to gain a free-chit from corruption... which again is equal to losing at political front/negotiating table for PakState.