Behind the CeaseFireLine (CFL) ......

[ziaulislam]

The issue is will there be the same LAC once China fights and wins over the lands? It will all depend on where the Chinese will feel comfortable they would occupy. It is exactly like the Usraeli occupied teritories that are still in their control.

wrong for china India is too important..it values its economical relations with india.
this is a calculated move for india to back down from already settled boundaries(askai chin & pakistan-china border, india naming it a union territory this year)..it was a response to Indian aggression ..china doest want escalation ..

China wants India to keep the status quo.

things have changed we need to be cautious in reading Chinese hand..you don't want another 1971 situation

@Mangus Ortus Novem

A few developments have occurred since the time you started this thread.

CFL was made hot by India since attacks from inside Afghanistan on Pakistan had declined. However, Ladakh is an area which has parts claimed by India, Pakistan and also China. Since China has come in the picture, two more nations can be seen in the equation also - Nepal and Bhutan. On the other hand, since China has come in picture, the case of independent Tibet will be highlighted, since Tibet area gives access to China to reach India.

The Indian forces in Leh are considered as immediate back up and reinforcements for Indian Army at Srinagar and Jammu. This is why engaging Indian forces in this region is important which cannot be done directly by Pakistan. This is where China comes in, as China and India locks horns in the area of Ladakh, it doesnt stop here, Chinese showed presence in Sikkim area too. So India has managed to create unrest on other parts of its borders too. Nepal has made few deals with China a few years ago, while China will look to access from Nepal to reach Siliguri area of "Chicken neck" in the eastern sector.

So to sum it up, following new prospects have been opened militarily through China -India border skirmish:
1. Ladakh area
2. Sikkim area
3. Possible chinese access to Siliguri through Nepal
and this all started after exchange of constant fire on CFL between Pakistan and India. This shows that Indian border problems tripled.

Coming to Nepal side of story, The Kalapani territory is a disputed area between India and Nepal, which gives access to Tibet area too. Nepal has a small standing army of 7-8 Infantry Divisions. If China starts reinforcing Nepal by building roads and rails into Nepal, especially to reach Siliguri, then Nepal might ask for Chinese assistance to settle the issue of disputed kalapani area with India. The sentiments of Nepalese have become anti-indian and Nepal may look towards China in future for assistance instead of India.

Bhutan is another country which sits Adjacent to Nepal, its 3 times smaller than nepal and Bhutanese Military is assisted by India, especially the Air component. This is where China has to ingress and get Bhutan away from the Indian Sphere of influence with much more lucrative deals, just like it did with Nepal.

To counter China, India now could raise Tibet issue in Washington so that China will have to back off from Sikkim, Nepal etc. India was better off just engaging Pakistan on CFL, but now India has soured its enmity with three different countries (Pakistan-China-Nepal), all having different religions and background. One has to see how things unfold - whether India under Modi has done the correct thing through playing fire with article 370, whether USA will provide cover to India since China has stepped in and whether Nepal will further tilt towards China or come back towards India.

Kashmir terrain now has three active armies standing on its disputed lands.

USA-west has no energy to go to war for india....or even pressurize china..we saw what happened in ukraine...
china just wants status quo back which has been compromised by indian aggressive movements recently..

one aspect is domestic audience..
how is Modi going to satisfy them..
this Indian being superpower notion has layed out flat...
the ridiculous claim that India has been making that it can counter china militarily..forget about that Modi even upped the claim to "two-front war"..which surprises everyone..India cant decisively won a front war with Pakistan and its talking about two-front war

 

[omegalamba7XL9]

Pakistan's problem is that its often found itself short on strategic aspect ( less loss more gain )
Our battles are tough full blooded frontal attacks and Im just using it as an hypothetical analogy it reminds me about what Marshall Georgy Zhukov
said to his front commanders after battle of Moscow " You have to stop frontal wasteful attacks".
At this very moment Indians are occupied with Chinese as they were in 1962
Like General Ayub our current leadership is hesitant to take strong actions. We are waiting on God knows what when Modi wages war on us from day 1. We found ourself wanted and short on Feb 26 didn't take advantage on the gains made on Feb 27.
We as a nation have to decide 1st
1. Are we really are in war and struggle against India?
If so then why we don't push further up and gain some more territory. Sometimes I feel like Pakistan army on the east is not to stop Indian invasion but rather stop Pakistani awam invading India.
We can apply pressure right now open up some sectors maybe in South and in punjab and try to push some partisans fighters into rear of Indian lines facing north north east and north west.
Further in south move an armored division pointing towards Gujrat or Ahmedabad and keeping applying pressure.
But no we are going to waste opportunity like always. These hindus are doing to Muslims what Meccans did to prophet(p.b.u.h) and his companions during early days of Islam.
Lynching
Boycotting
Not accepting services
Looking down with hatred
And renounce islam or be killed.
It sounds very familiar. Typical idol worshipper behavior.
At this time famine,unrest, poverty, bad leadership, delusion and conflicts with all neighbors.
TIME TO STRIKE IS NOW as Salahdin waited until crusaders were oversteched diseases and famine struck shortage of food mutiny and then destroyed them with ease.

 

[diligence]

The recent aggressive Indian policies should not be construed as merely the outbursts from a fascist mindset of ruling Hindu terrorists of RSS/BJP currently ruling that country. One can easily find a consistent and continuous pattern of aggressive postures as demonstrated by successive Indian governments since early fifties. The real difference between the ruling class then and now is of the adopted strategies to achieve essentially the same goal of creating Akhand Bharat (or Greater India). Right after getting independence in 1947, Indian leaders, starting with Nehru, started suffering from a self-deceptive belief of being the regional leaders and expected the regional countries, including Mao's China, to toe the line set by Indian leadership. They started with forcibly annexing scores of autonomous states that existed under the British rule. Once, done with that without much difficulty, Indian leaders started looking around at the regional countries as their immediate sphere of influence. The Sino-Indian military skirmish of 1962, in fact, was a direct consequence of Indian bellicose. After suffering from utter humiliation at the hands of Chinses military, Indian leaders decided to first focus on smaller neighboring countries by asking them to fall in line. Any hesitation in following the Indian line would bring the wrath of Indian leaders who used all means, including terrorism, to punish the disobeying states. One of the first target countries facing the Indian wrath was, of course, Pakistan. In the first place, Indian leaders agreed to the proposal of creation of Pakistan only after being confident that the new country would collapse soon after only to request a re-merger with mother India. The first successful milestone on their way to Akhand Bharat was turning the erstwhile East Pakistan into a separate country, i.e. Bangladesh, through an effective use of a terrorist group called Mukti Bahini in 1970-71.

Soon after, Indians created another terrorist outfit, the LTTE, in Sri Lanka with a goal of carving out another small Hindu majority state out of Sri Lanka. It should be noted it was in fact Indian RAW that introduced suicide bombing in this region. The Indian RAW trained the terrorists of LTTE in planning and conducting such deadly attacks on Sri Lankan leadership and commoners at public places. As a matter of fact, Indians are the pioneers in introducing many other bad things at the regional stage. For example, they introduced atomic weapons by exploding a nuke device in 1974 after cheating, deceiving, and stealing nuclear material from civilian nuclear reactors supplied by Canada under friendship treaty of peaceful use of nuclear technology. Even more disgusting was the code name of a mass murdering atomic device as Smiling Buddha, a disgrace that only cunning Indian Hindu leaders can bring upon themselves. Similarly Indians introduced the missile technology in the Indian sub-continent. Faced with existential overt and covert Indian threats, Pakistan had no other choice but to follow the suit as a matter of compulsion.

After much devastation and bloodshed, Sri Lanka was able, with valuable assistance from Pakistan and China, to defeat the Indian terrorism by crushing Indian terrorist arm, the LTTE, in their country. The destabilizing rogue Indian policies didn't stop there. After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, Indians played a dirty spoiler’s role by supplying arms and ammunition to different Afghan factions with the sole goal of keeping the Afghan civil war, destruction, and bloodshed continued because that suited very well to Indian strategic interests. Such cold blooded and evil policies are later reflected by massive Indian support to many anti-Pakistan terrorist groups such as the TTP, BLA, and an assortment of other groups created by them to carry out terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh have been treated by Indians no differently either. Arm twisting, diplomatic and economic coercing, use of terrorism, and other blackmailing tactics are the hallmark of Indian policy towards its neighboring countries since 1947. India has proved itself as a negative and destabilizing factor for the region since its independence from Britain. It is a curse that every and all regional countries are equally facing.

Having a shallow personally, a criminal mentality, and a disgraceful past (infamously know as Butcher of Gujrat), the only qualification of Modi for rising to the position of Indian chief executive was his extremist policies and deep hate against Muslims. His rise to the power reflects the overall narrow and prejudice mentality of Indian Hindu voters and their support for his criminal policies against other Indian minorities. His rise to the power is analogous to that of Hitler. The fanatic extremists of the Hindu RSS/BJP are deeply impressed by Nazi policies. The only difference is that the target of their policies are Muslims rather than Jewish people. However, with the rise of extremist Hindu cadre in the country, Indian policies came out in the exposure only to shock the civilized world.

A poverty-stricken country having a diverse set of communities and cultures, like India, can least afford internal strife especially if numerous insurgencies are already running throughout the country. But the new Hindu extremist leaders of India deeply believed in crushing any and all opposition by exploiting the power of Hinduism and the charm of Akhand Bharat slogan. The apparent success of domestic policies of Modi government encouraged the his extremist government to focus on the external front more vigorously yet once more. India started broadcasting the weather reports of Gilgit-Baltistan region (even though that achieves nothing - BBC and Aljazeera broadcast such reports for dozens of world cities), Indians ministers and military commanders started issuing statements against Pakistan threatening a military action to retrieve Gilgit-Baltistan region from Pakistan's 'occupation'. While unilaterally and illegally annexing the occupied J&K into India union (by revoking article 370 of Indian constitution) and claiming the Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan region, Indians conveniently discarded the UN related part (i.e UN resolutions on the dispute of J&K) of the dispute while keeping its status as disputed that must be resolved to Indian satisfaction (i.e. vacated by Pakistan and China). More than that, as another malicious dimension, Indian leaders openly started supporting terrorism in Pakistan's Balochistan province - same approach that was followed in East Pakistan (Mukti Bahini) and Sri Lanka (LTTE). Since the goal was to snap the Karakorum Highway (thus sabotaging the CPEC project), many observers believe that Indians had covert support from many world powers.

As Indians started mobilizing their military assets, Pakistan and China sensed the rising threat. Both countries quickly started spinning in action to counter Indian blackmailing and imminent aggression. Chinese have pre-empted Indian moves of annexing disputed territory of Southern Tibet by engaging India military at the LAC. After getting a blank refusal of any open support from their secret Western allies, Indians are now requesting for a negotiated peaceful solution of the stand-off at the LAC. What these silly Hindu fanatics of India are conveniently forgetting is that the standoff, in the first place, is a direct result of their utterly insane and aggressive actions in clear violation of international laws. Disputed territories cannot be unilaterally annexed with impunity and without grave repercussions. Unless Modi and his gang of Hindu terrorists not only return the previous status of Indian occupied J&K (Ladakh is a part of the occupied state) but also start a serious process of giving the right of self-determination to the people of occupied state as promised to them by Nehru's India, UN, and the world decades ago. A prolonged delay and refusal to their right of self-determination does not really nullify their promised right. How else Chinese can trust Modi and his fascist gang and vacate their positions only to allow Indians later pose a more serious threat to the CPEC project. Or else, Modi's India is up for utter humiliation in front of the whole world. Their requests for negotiations carry not even an iota of credibility. I am sure Indians will end up getting a hundred proverbial hits (with Chinese shoes) in their heads and eat a hundred pieces of onions too.

India has been following a policy of arm-twisting, blackmailing, and aggression against its neighboring countries since its independence from the British rule in 1947. Initially that policy was articulated in disguise of friendship and persuasion. As the time passed and Indians faced little challenges on their way to dominating the region, they started using more devilish tools such as open threats and the use of terrorism to punish any diversions by smaller states from Indian dictates. But after the Indian fanatic extremists of BJP came to power in India, the aggressive Indian posturing and actions started dominating the regional geo-political and geo-strategic scene in a disproportionate order. The BJP party of Modi, in fact, is the political arm of the extremist Hindu terrorist organization RSS, which is perusing the goal of creating a pure Hindu Akhand Bharat (Greater India) by conquering all neighboring countries and eliminating all other religious minorities. In order to acquire much needed muscle, the Vajpayee-run BJP government exploded multiple nuclear devices in 1998. In parallel Indians kept developing an array of modern missiles, including short and long range ballistic and cruise missiles, and other military hardware.

Since the beginning of current spell of BJP government under Modi, Indians re-focused at their domestic front besides having a more vigorous and aggressive posturing and bullying against the regional countries. They changed the Indian constitution by amending the citizenship laws, thus, stripping hundreds of millions of Indian citizens off their citizenship and effectively turning them into third class non-citizen residents. No effective opposition or concern was raised by any one from the so-called civilized world. Any sane domestic voice was effectively silenced within the country too. Hindu terrorists of the RSS unleashed a country-wide campaign of beating, burning, and killing whole families and destroying their houses of scores of religious minorities in particular Muslims. The lack of any reaction from civilized world encouraged them further. in another similar move, the Modi government unilaterally changed the status of disputed state of J&K, which is currently under a continued illegal Indian occupation against many UN resolutions. The bifurcation and annexation of the occupied state into proper Indian union resulted not only mass agitation in the state but also heightened tensions with Pakistan and China. Modi did not stop there.

Even before the revocation of article 370, Modi sent his fighter jets to launch an attack on Pakistan’s KPK province in the darkness of night on 26 February 2019. It was a clearly a grave violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty that required a proper and an effective response from Pakistan, which came on the following day. But in the meantime, Indians started projecting their military muscle, threatening Pakistan of grave consequences, and openly calling for the breakup of that country. A couple of years ago, Modi government claimed that its military had launched a surgical strike against Pak military at the LoC. Pakistan denied any Indian military strike reminding that any intruding enemy soldiers wouldn't have gone back alive. However, for Indians the real Indian goal, it seems, was to unleash a sizzling propaganda campaign for domestic consumption and projecting a specific perception (that 56” chest means a serious business). Such self-deceptive lies, although never unexpected from Indians - especially the ruling Hindu fanatics of RSS, are the hallmark of BJP run Indian government.

Emboldened by the apparent success and self-proclaimed grandeur derived from these and similar actions, Modi planned to finally hit the master stroke, an action that will make him the hero for not only Indians but rather more importantly for the Western world too. Indians were silently but steadily making preparations to occupy the Gilgit-Baltistan area of Northern Pakistan to cut off the Karakorum Highway and thus snapping the CPEC route. Pakistanis and Chinese knew that Modi would certainly embark on that adventure and so they were prepared for the show. That was probably the reason both nations did not vehemently oppose/condemn earlier Modi actions. They let him get into the trap.

Reacting to Modi's moves, Chinese finally struck back at the right time. To a common Indian’s surprise, Indian army showed no resistance much less than fighting back to retrieve their lost land. Indians were requesting Chinese for the flag meetings and one was even held last week. Protocol-sensitive Indians were humiliated when their senior general was made to sit and talk in front of a lower ranked Chinese general. More than that, Chinese side disgraced Indians by not listening their requests (for Chinese to return to older positions and restore the previous status quo) and handing them back a demarche with tough demands for Modi government. Indians were clearly told to forget the retrieved Chinese lands and asked Indian to return the remaining Chinese lands still occupied by Indians. Chinese showed their military muscle too by amassing troops and modern military equipment at the disputed border points.

By changing the status of Indian occupied J&K unilaterally, Modi had messed up and compromised many a factors. First of all, the dispute has UN resolutions that provide a general framework for its resolution. Indians were trying to de-link UN from the dispute for a long time. They removed UN military observers from their side of the LoC by force decades ago. They also started initially calling it a bi-lateral dispute with Pakistan (getting China out of it), thus, denying the role of UN or any third party in its resolution. Then they started calling it their internal affair implying that even Pakistan has nothing to do with the occupied state. If anything, Pakistan needs to vacate the Azad Kashmir. World powers were compromising with Indian transgressions (for the sake of their national interests) while recognizing the disputed nature of the state but calling for a bi-lateral negotiated settlement. By revoking article 370, Modi removed even that pretext for the world powers. How you can call for a negotiated peaceful resolution when one party in the dispute claims to have resolved it by annexing it unilaterally? No world power publicly supported Indian move. But no one publicly condemned the illegal move by Modi either.

When one party flatly refuses the option of using international law and resorts to impose a wishful resolution to the dispute by force, then the rule of ‘might is right’ becomes effective. Modi forgot that China is militarily mightier than India and so the rule of might is right would benefit Chinese much more than Indians. Now that Chinese has followed the same route, Modi is in for a big trouble. Where does he go for justice? What options Modi then have gotten to get out of his current humiliation? One thing is clear: the situation will not stay at the current state for long. Either Chinese will have to tighten the noose against Indians to push them back further to retrieve their lands (i.e. Ladakh – a part of Indian occupied J&K) by following the same rule of might is right. That will certainly bring more humiliation to Modi’s India. Or Indians will have to force Chinese to pull back by militarily and/or diplomatically. Given the historic cowardice of Indian Hindus, the former option has no chance of happening. Can Indians pull the plug on Chinese by using diplomatic venue?

Well, Indians cannot go back to the UN for any action against Chinese. Indians themselves de-linked UN and rendered it irrelevant to the dispute. If Indians go back to the UN, then UN resolutions become very much relevant again and Indians wouldn't like to do that. Also, China has a veto power at UNSC. No punitive action can be taken against China at the UN.
One cannot make a mistake about the lack of even a single statement from any world power in India's favor during the recent Seno-Indian border tensions. That is not surprising. The world powers didn’t support Modi government’s revocation of article 370. These powers cannot publicly support the rule of might is right. Supporting India in the current crisis amounts to supporting the past illegal actions of Modi. While western powers would like to use India to counter China, but no one will openly support it against China and invite Chinese wrath. Modi stands globally alone and exposed. A criminal minded illiterate person having less than average intellect, Modi misread signals from world powers and tried to do what he is capable of doing all along his political career, i.e. break the law, kill others, and do the politics of dead bodies. Here, he may have to deal with dead bodies of Indian soldiers rather than unarmed civilian members of Indian minorities, especially Muslims.

The last, but not the least and certainly not improbable, option is that, given the blunders Modi and his gang have committed with India now facing existential threat, the Indian deep state might decide to eliminate Modi and his gang to re-assess the post-Modi situation and try to make a patch up with rest of the world. The possibility of that happening is indeed non-negligible because Modi has caused deep humiliation for Indian armed forces due to his stupidity multiple times. And there is currently wide spread resentment in the file and ranks of Indian armed forces.

 

[Readerdefence]

Hi just a glimpse for members on this forum who think China won’t come after its investment specifically in GAWADAR they will not tolerate any hindrance between GWD & all the way to Xinjiang so they will if they have to physically clear these routes to be operational 365 24/7
As they are experiencing & will in coming days or years in SCS and surrounding areas
Thank you

 

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

The Perservation of the State is the Highest Virtue!

It is the Only Virtue from which the rest can follow!

Pakistan is the SecondState ... it was/is the Promise we made and have totally failed to Honour this Scared Oath.

Hence, Our Fall, disgrace, loss of Sovereingty, labelled with everything bad under the Heavens... the most of OurTrobules are Self-Inflicted and the Turth is we have also been Victim of foreign Intriuges... which only succeeded because we, Paks, not having OurCompass pointing to TrueNorth.

Many reasons and some... to the Condition we find Ourselves in for decades now!

When we look at Our FirstSacredState, 1400+yrs ago, everything done there was to Preserve the SacredState so that the Complete System of Life could be implemented!

Our True Leaders and the Beloved Prophet PBUH did everything for the Survival and Continuation of the SacredState.

From the SacredBatteles to The Conquest of Makkah without violence and forgiving all those oppressers ... all are the Lesson for The Second State to study, analyse and follow.

We, despite giving the Promise to make Pakistan the SecondState have FAILED in learning and implementing those SacredLessons!

Of course, Pakistan Shall Never be The First SacredState... but continuous journey, with all the failings and then standing up to go on... is the Purpose of Pakistan.

Our Fundamental Failure has been not being able to Frame the Idea of Pakistan properly within the State of Pakistan.

We are neither a Repulic and nor Islamic... a hotch-potch of everythig trying to be extra-liberal and extra-conservative within the same timeframe has addded to Paralysis of PakPositiveNarrative resulting in political mess and ethno-fascism on the rise.

Unless we Frame Our Existence with Absolute Clarity ... we shall remain a SoftState flirting with Abyss!

A State without any sense of itself can neither have Sovereignity nor National Interests... rather remains permanently in reactive, survivor mode... which is taxing to say the least.

Since, we have Failed to Frame OurState into correct Form we are still searching for 'models' to progress or get out of the deep, entreched mess that we, the 220mln Paks, have to live with.

We have seen AllooGhostPhilsophers trying to eliminate a mere 'line' called border, because in such GreatPhilosphers' view people are the same on both side of the 'line' ... both eating AllooGosht, both worshiping the same God!

Or the Daughter of the East stating during Self-Exile while in India...that Pakistan must form Confederation with India.

We know about other smaller players in political-morrase who have said even more exotic things...

This all happend and is still happening because of Our Failure to Frame the State of Pakistan correctly and Stick-with-it!!!

Swinging from Islamic-Socialism to Zia's Islam to Mushy's Liberalism to a decade of imposed, imported JumWhoriat to current Woodstock-Suffism .... all are the pointers of Confusion, causing harm to both the State and Paks... decline continues!

The Fundamental Questions of What-are-we, Who-are-we, Why-are-we need to find Solid and Consistent answers for the PakState to find its bearing and the Ship-of-PakState can finally set out on the Voyage of Self-Realisation.

Neither FazoolMullahMaffia nor Mera-Jism-Meri-Marzi going to answer the Fundamental Questions for reasons obvious!

The above is The Reason that we have also not been able to Frame India in proper context...

We have failed to understand that this 'Soviet' Union of IndianStates is held together with a Network of Elite just like the Party Princes of the USSR.

Also, the desperate need of IndianStatehood to permanently attacking (through Hybridwar) is the Glue that holds this 'Soviet' Union of India together... evermore now since the good Indians march towards HinduRashtra .... with both Pakistan and Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan as convinient targets to blame... cleverly hiding the War on Islam!

WashingtonPost correctly described after the paper annexation of IoJK by the FacistRegime as:

Hindu Victory Over Islam.

It is 1000+yrs old feeling held by the good Indians that is now being actuated by the IndianState, which was never secular, neither in its conduct nor in its policies.

Why did Quaid e Azam R.A. correctly described Kashmir to be Our JugularVein?

OurQuaid fought for Kashmir when his cells were dying within his frail structure. Why did he do it?

Yes, for more than Forty odd years we have been dealing with the AfghanWars and its fallout within OurLand. And yes, these efforts from PakState were/are to Preserve the PakState.

• 100.000 PakKashmiris in 7.000 massgraves -

• 10.000 PakKashmiri women/girls Gang Raped by the good IndiaArmy as Weapon of War -

• 14.000+ PakKashmiri youngsters abducted from their homes in IoJK without any info of there whereabouts

• 100s lost their Sight, including infants/toddlers, from Indians firing shot-guns directly on their faces...

The recent picture of a child sitting on the dead-body of his grandfather... outraged us... but is it the only picture?

Oddly enough PakKashmiris are Fighting for The Idea of Pakistan!

On the CeaseFireLine1 the valiant Indians can use snipper rifles to have a clear head-shot of our small children. They fire directly into PakCivilian areas... trageting houses...for more colletral damage...

And we always give 'Befitting' reply!

One understands that the Longest TrenchWarfare in History has its reasons and dynamics... the good Indians just want keep it under pressure and attempt to engage in Attrition thinking this will cause loss of men and material and force Pakistan to accept CeaseFireLine1 as permanent border..

We cann't.

We simply cann't accept CeaseFireLine1 to be a permanet border.

Yes, we have million and 1 problems and our interenal mess is overwhelming... but we need to Make the Core Decision...which we have shied away for too long.

And before we could finally take the PakCoreDecision ...we must Frame OurState with Absolute Clarity and build it from ground-up.

Sino-IranianDeal .... has Strategic Implication for OurRegion and OurState...

Kabulistan in the hands of Bazari Kabulis is still trying to keep the Gravy-train chugging along by desperately trying for the Americans to stay and keep feeding them Free$.

It's not one's PakBias to state that Pakistan is The Heartland and has everything to become a PowerfulState of GlobalConseqence. We have done that once... and might pull it off second time as well... too early to claim anything.

This we have done without Absolute Clarity of Framing PakPositivism or PakPositiveNationalism... we did the above for mere Survival.

Time for Survival based Action is almost over.

Now is the DecisionTime of What-are-We-as-PakState????

Only then we could have PakNational Interstes or Direction to have Roadmap of Becoming what we are meant to be.

Kashmir is not about land. Or Rivers ...

Kashmir is about Idea of Pakistan ... and Pakistan is incomplete without Kashmir.

PakArmedForces carry the SacredDuty of not only protecting our physical landmass/state from external or internal enemies but it is also the ScaredDuty of PakArmedForces to Protect The Idea of Pakistan.

The PLA has now an effective CeaseFireLine2 with strategic gains both in land and diplomacy!

Killing of PakChildren or PakCivilians by the good Indians needs to STOP now.

Only we can do this.

It is high time that Pak DG MO calls his Indian counterpart and convey in clearest terms... that Price of Killing PakChildren has gone hugely UP!

And then fulfill this Oath the next time the good Indians Kill Our Children.

APS.

We have both the men and means to do this. High time PMIK tweets the warning to the ModiRegime and then ACT.

What is happening Behind the CeaseFireLine1 is Rape and Murder of the Idea of Pakistan in the form of PakKashmiris ...proving the Article by WashingtonPost.


Mangus


PS: However, the Journey towards becoming a Powerful PakState is Long One... but depends solely on how we Frame Our PakState!!!

Great effort! One cannot have a direction if mind is clouded. It is important to know yourself, clarity of mind and clarity of belief to course-correct and cut the clutter, abstract and contrived narratives.
People grown up on compromises lack wherewithal to stand up for principles, merit and dignity.

If anyone any single person with authority wanted to correct the course and establish the second state on it's true merit... a study could have been set to not only identify the principles but working of the state that delivers... a representative that believed not only on his fallibility but his capacity to perform... someone who believed in the day of judgment and bowed his head to one supreme Lord to show his humility and humanity. For we're certainly not humbled unless we knowingly and willfully rest our pride, head in prostration to Almighty and seek only good and abstain from what is bad for if we are not deliberate in doing so ... not only we suffer but we leave this condition for generations to come. The only reason why we even know what we do today is people taking pains to make sure it is delivered and established.
Our effort today is just like that of a parent who seeks to make life comfortable for its posterity... an abode and perhaps a skill or trade to fend for and/or earn an honest living. It is part of our faith to lookout for the downtrodden, not very imperialistic, materialistic or capitalist is it? Here is the pain for Kashmiris and Palestinians and Rohingyas and every where else on this planet, for lest we forget isn't their primary crime just being a Muslim? And it remains in vogue only that Muslims or their wouldbe leaders started assuming or perhaps consuming appeasement, bowing to the masters of this world and not the hereafter.

Didn't want it this long but my thoughts on your write up.

 

[Ghost 125]

Last time Indian army planned, and were about to conduct, a conventional attack in this area

..... They inducted 6 Mountain Division by air within about a week. Of course they faced a shortage of accommodation for the almost 10, 000 troops that arrived from nowhere. This airlift was remarkable enough.

As per Indian accounts, Pakistan staged a more remarkable airlift. 300 C130 sorties were flown within 3 days to bring in two extra brigades into FCNA which altered the attack ratio enough to force Indians to postpone and then cancel their attack a few hours before it was about to be launched.

Such was... Once upon a time in the month of February...




And Indians, by their own accounts, were thoroughly impressed by our C130, it's capability to operate at surge rate without maintenance, and it's large overload capacity.




And then, the very recent Indian logistic exercise, EX BAHUBALI, is also an indicator of a similar thing.

When was that, where and which axis, Indus or Shyok ???

go

On a serious note, keeping in view India's recent claims about GB, a replay of a heavily customized Op Trident plan may be on the tables.....since the essence of Op Trident was the capture of GB areas.

Superiority of force is very difficult to achieve here in case long warning times are available. The terrain is so difficult that the absolute number of troops that can be inducted by either side is very limited. So, if Pakistan has sufficient warning time, we can neutralize the Indian buildup, like we did in 87/88.



Lets take a glance at Op Trident....

It was to be an attack by Indian 15 Corps on Skardu and then Gilgit with the aim of capturing GB area.
It involved elements of 3, 19 and 28 Division, all of 15 Corps.....reinforced by the externally inducted 6 Mountain Division (which was the biggest indicator and as we have already seen, gave the game away).

Main attack direction was from Kargil towards Skardu using 121 Brigade + additional brigade, both of 28 Division

Supporting attack was to be from Thoise via Khapplu to Skardu using 102 Brigade, and 70+114 Brigades from 3 Division

A diversionary effort from Gurais to Gilgit using 268 Brigade of 19 Division

6 Mountain Division was to have taken over 3 Division's locations opposite Chinese. Reserves were to be provided by a brigade each of 6, 19 and 28 Division



A word about 6 Mountain Division airlift

Op Trident had, as its key, the rapid shifting of 6 Mountain Division to Leh, which was done in remarkable effort withing 6 days. On one day alone, the peak, 70 landing were made at Leh. Keeping in view that by late morning the weather at Leh closes on, so these 70 sorties, consisting of Il-76s, An-12s and An-32s would have landed within a window of perhaps 5 hours at best.

Things which suddenly went wrong were, insufficient food for these extra 10,00 troops, their heavy equipment delivery was delayed. Date of attack of changed from February 6 to 8, which allowed to 2 more days to the Division to acclimatize as well.

The attack was scheduled for 0430 hours on Feb 8, but 0300 hours, it was cancelled.

Rest , we have already seen what Pakistan Army did, by bringing in two brigades on C130s within 3-4 days to alter force ratios.


Now

Coming to problems which IA faces in this sector

First is the timing, the time required to capture Skardu and Gilgit...
its about 80 air kilometers from Kargil to Skardu which means a minimum of 150 Kms along the valley, from Skardu to Gilgit will somewhat 300-350 kms....this operation can take maybe months....

Just to narrate an example
Indians, in 1971, sent two companies of Ladakh Scouts from Turtok to a location to attack ,objective was 30 kms away. They were opposed by few platoons of FC (not regulars, like it is now). Within two weeks, once the operation ended, the Indians were still short of their objective.

There is nothing wrong with a six or even a twelve week war. Both sides have the capability to wage a six or even a twelve month war (of course not without external assistance)
The problem lies in the mindset of strategic decision makers who may never conceive of a longer war, or may be never agree to it.


Next problem is terrain and weather factors...
Overall , terrain favors India since they will be attacking downhill.
But then, dis-advantage is that, in mountain terrain, Indians have to advance along very predictable routes....Shyok, Indus, and Astor river valleys...
These river valleys are narrow and easily defended by a small force, Indians will have to launch a major effort as well to secure the mountain tops along both sides of the valleys before advancing...

In essence, in mountains, the geography favors the defender heavily.



Then comes the vehicular movement

An Indian infantry division in mountains, in offensive mode, may require 300 to 400 tons of supplies of all types a day...some 2000 vehicles of all sizes will be plying around...
But then the narrow roads in the mountains, full of culverts and small bridges.....interdiction, vehicle breakdowns on a single road
...and then this problem intensifies the more Indians come into GB, with that division having the potential to get cut off




and then ofcourse, the last major problem....

The Pakistan's reinforcements....

In response to Op Trident, the final ratios were....due to PA reinforcements....

On Shyok axis- 3 IA brigades against 2 PA brigades
On Indus axis- same as above
On Astor axis- One against One

No one could or can pretend any quick victory with the problems discussed above.

Op Trident, therefore, had to be called off at the last moment.



@Nilgiri @Joe Shearer
Now the post is complete.

Got it

There is a local account I have heard about Turtuk - won't find it in books/journals.

As per, there were enough forces in the area to resist Indian advances, but the defenders were compromised by their commander who happened to receive 'gifts' and 'assurances' from across.

conspiacy theories, not true